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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Mod. Alloc. fund not named PRWCX (TRowe Price Cap. Apprec.)
    @msf Yup. I don't imagine it's that hard - they already have to block you from some securities if you're not "special" (e.g. an accredited investor).
    I got into TIBIX at Schwab for $100k by begging!

    Well isn't that special (Schwab normally sells those shares only to institutional investors).
    Also, some brokers may not be as diligent as others in tracking what states a mutual fund is registered in. Case in point, earlier this year I tried to buy PVFIX at Fido and Schwab but was turned down by both since it was not registered in my state. After emailing the fund and learning from manager John Deysher that there were no plans to register the fund in my state any time soon, I placed an order for it at TD Ameritrade and it went through without a hitch.
    (Since I’m not sure what that says about TD’s compliance procedures, I’m going to transfer the shares to one of my other accounts once I’m beyond the account bonus pull-back period.)
  • Mod. Alloc. fund not named PRWCX (TRowe Price Cap. Apprec.)
    @msf Yup. I don't imagine it's that hard - they already have to block you from some securities if you're not "special" (e.g. an accredited investor).
    I got into TIBIX at Schwab for $100k by begging!
    Well isn't that special (Schwab normally sells those shares only to institutional investors).
  • Josh Brown: Why The Stock Market Has To Go Down
    FYI: Chinese authorities are in the process of regulating stock market sell-offs out of existence. They’re investigating foreign and local hedge funds that trade in both directions, outlawing the selling of insider shares by corporate executives and banning short-selling.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://thereformedbroker.com/2015/08/23/why-the-stock-market-has-to-go-down/
  • S&P 500 Weekly Drops Of 5%+
    FYI: After a nice up day last Monday, the S&P 500 fell sharply over the final four days of the trading week. For the full week, the index was down 5.69% — it’s first 5%+ decline since September 2011. Since 1980, the S&P has only had 28 other 5%+ down weeks. Below is a table of them that shows the index’s performance over the following week, four weeks and twelve weeks.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/sp-500-weekly-drops-of-5/
  • Mod. Alloc. fund not named PRWCX (TRowe Price Cap. Apprec.)
    Below are the holdings for TIBIX.
    Cash 1.45%
    US Stock 36.87%
    Non US Stock 51.33%
    Bond 4.94%
    Other 5.41%
    As of 06/30/2015
  • Matthews Pacific Tiger Fund reopens to new investors
    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/923184/000119312515299307/d29024d497.htm
    SUPPLEMENT DATED AUGUST 24, 2015
    TO THE INVESTOR CLASS PROSPECTUS OF
    MATTHEWS ASIA FUNDS
    DATED APRIL 30, 2015 (AS SUPPLEMENTED)
    The Matthews Pacific Tiger Fund (MAPTX) will resume accepting orders to purchase shares from new investors effective August 24, 2015.
    As of August 24, 2015, all references in the Prospectus to the Matthews Pacific Tiger Fund being closed to new investors (including page 17 of the Prospectus) or investing in or exchanging shares into a closed fund, and the information under the caption “Who Can Invest in a Closed Fund?” (page 85 of the Prospectus) are hereby removed in their entirety.
    Please refer to page 82 of the Prospectus for information on how to purchase shares of the Matthews Pacific Tiger Fund.
    Please retain this Supplement with your records.
  • Mod. Alloc. fund not named PRWCX (TRowe Price Cap. Apprec.)
    @msf Yup. I don't imagine it's that hard - they already have to block you from some securities if you're not "special" (e.g. an accredited investor).
    I got into TIBIX at Schwab for $100k by begging!
  • Mod. Alloc. fund not named PRWCX (TRowe Price Cap. Apprec.)
    So Ken Moraif is managing $3 billion.......
    Hmm....average account size $500,000
    My guess is that the fees on these $500,000 accounts is close to 1%.
    So that is $30 million per year for managing money.
    It's a can't lose business, because you get paid the same $3 million no matter what the market does, and no matter how well or poorly you do......
    Well, if his Friday sell signal turns out to be correct.......
    and I wonder if he has already executed the sell in all of his clients' accounts......seems like he didn't make this sell decision till Friday, and who knows what time.......he may not have had the time to execute, and might be selling into Monday's prices
    Anyway, if his Friday sell turns out to be right, he will advertise this till there's no tomorrow.....and one day soon be looking at $6 billion in assets......and $60 million per year for managing those accounts......
    I think we went into the wrong fields.......
    We could switch fields.....take the CFP curriculum and get the CFP designation, then start managing money.
    But it's all about marketing and sales......advertisements.......
    I'm sure his radio program is one big advertisement to get clients......
    The "hook", the "bait" can only be this:
    "You don't know what to do, but we do"
    "The stock market and investing are too confusing for you.......you don't know what to do with all the conflicting news reports out there.......but we know exactly what to do"
    "We will protect your hard earned savings"
    "We have the knowledge and experience that you don't have"
    OK, we have to market ourselves.....give people confidence in ourselves.........
    If we have doubts and don't know what to do....just don't tell our clients
    Always look and sound confident that we know what to do......
    Cheers,
    Robert
  • Mod. Alloc. fund not named PRWCX (TRowe Price Cap. Apprec.)
    Another email received from Ken Moraif......I copied and pasted the email where he issued his sell signal on Friday.
    "Money Matters is pleased to announce that Ken Moraif has been named by Barron’s for the fourth year in a row as one of the top 100 Independent Financial Advisors in the nation. Ken has jumped ahead significantly this year and is recognized as the 18th advisor in the rankings; he was listed as 31st in 2014, 40th in 2013 and 91st in 2012. The ranking showcases the nation's top advisors based on assets under management and revenue growth, as well as quality of the practice..."
    +++++++++++++++++
    I don't place any value in something like this, where somehow Barron's ranks financial advisors...and Ken Moraif is supposedly the 18th best financial advisor in the US. On what basis??
    and also:
    "Money Matters is also proud to be named one of the
    2015 Forbes Top 100 Wealth Managers!"
    First Barron's, now Forbes........
    "From the stock market's gyrations and the collapse in oil prices to tax planning and the guessing game around Federal Reserve rate hikes, investors have a lot to grapple with these days. More than ever they are turning to the counsel of independent financial advisors, judging by the swelling assets under management of the firms that make up Forbes' 2015 list of Top Wealth Managers. The 100 firms that made the cut collectively managed $468 billion at the end of 2014"
    Below is from Barron's:
    image
    How does Barron's decide that Ken Moraif is the 18th best financial advisor in the US??
    There's no way they could commit the resources to thoroughly study the financial advisors in America
    3.5 hours till the market open......
    I'm sure you're already on the case.....looking at the futures.....
    Cheers,
    Robert
  • Why Not 100% Equities
    MJG makes a good case. Having a 100% equity portfolio may prove disappointing and/or disastrous if a bear market hits right at or near retirement.
  • Mod. Alloc. fund not named PRWCX (TRowe Price Cap. Apprec.)
    I have been in AOMIX for years as my #1 core fund. I have been very happy with them.
  • Why Not 100% Equities
    Hi Guys,
    Peter Lynch made a rookie blunder when he recommended a survivable 7% withdrawal rate for a retirement portfolio. He based the faulty endorsement assuming historical average portfolio returns with zero volatility, zero standard deviation in those returns.
    During retirement, portfolio returns variability is a killer.
    One early critic of the erroneous Lynch analysis was the team from Trinity University. Their work became known as the Trinity Study. The professors, Philip L. Cooley, Carl M. Hubbard, and Daniel T. Walz, published a paper titled “Retirement Spending: Choosing a Sustainable Withdrawal Rate”.
    They basically concluded that something like a 4% annual drawdown was more realistic in terms of portfolio survival. Here is a Link to a recent Forbes article that reviews the work:
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/wadepfau/2015/06/10/safe-withdrawal-rates-for-retirement-and-the-trinity-study/
    Much work has been done to update these findings. The Monte Carlo simulation codes are terrific tools to assess permissible withdrawal rates. They are now accessible on the Internet. These codes permit the user to explore countless scenarios in a quick and convenient way. The basic output is a portfolio survival estimate. What-if scenarios can be used to test the robustness of various portfolio construction options.
    Here is a Link to the easiest code to input. It is on the MoneyChimp website. It is not the most sophisticated code, but it demonstrates the power of this tool:
    http://www.moneychimp.com/articles/volatility/montecarlo.htm
    Note that since these simulations are based on random return selections that are coupled to the statistical input, results will vary somewhat even for identical inputs. That’s the nature of market uncertainty that is captured by Monte Carlo methods.
    I hope you find the references useful.
    Best Regards.
  • Mod. Alloc. fund not named PRWCX (TRowe Price Cap. Apprec.)
    I believe this might be what David means. Per M&P prospectus:
    The Mairs & Power Balanced, Growth, and Small Cap Mutual Funds are offered by Prospectus only. The Funds are not available for sale to investors residing outside of the United States...
    Possibly. Just as likely is the fact that at least in the past, M&P wasn't registered for sale in all of the 50 United States. I don't know what the current situation is (nor does it seem to be documented; one probably needs to call M&P).
    1996, Spokesman.com: "The fund [MPGFX] has stayed small in part because it was available only to investors who live in Minnesota for the first 11 years of its existence. Today it’s available in 12 states"
    2001, NYTimes: Expenses [for MAPOX] are a low 0.93 percent a year, partly because Mairs and Power reduces costs by marketing the fund in only 12 states. These include New York, New Jersey, California, Florida and Arizona."
    2004, M* thread: "MPGFX is only available in 32 states and the Balanced fund is only available in about 12."
  • Why Not 100% Equities
    I thought for most humans with risk tolerance 80-20 worked best as it showed little gain given up compared to 100% equities and was much smoother. To me the real interesting asset allocation issue is whether to invest in international and whether to hedge currency. Obviously you should in situations like Japan in the last few years where it was clear the govt. intended to weaken the currency
  • Mod. Alloc. fund not named PRWCX (TRowe Price Cap. Apprec.)
    How about VWELX?
    You can't open it at Fidelity, but you can open it at Vanguard, and AFAIK transfer it to Fidelity. I don't expect a transfer fee either way (i.e. Fidelity doesn't charge for partial transfers, and I don't believe Vanguard charges for transfers/closing mutual fund IRAs).
    Take $3K from you IRA and send it to a Vanguard IRA. You can do this by trustee-to-trustee transfer (which should save you tax filing paperwork), or just pull $3K from your Fidelity account and do a 60-day rollover. Then do an in-kind transfer of the fund back to Fidelity.
    That would get you access to the fund, save the $75 Fidelity commission for opening the account there (that is, if you could), and enable you to add to the position at Fidelity (just as you would with RPBAX).
    I've gone through this process to get access to a fund that was closed at brokerages, albeit not in an IRA and not a Vanguard fund. Pretty straightforward process.
  • Mod. Alloc. fund not named PRWCX (TRowe Price Cap. Apprec.)
    Curious why you exclude PRWCX? I do a lot of "volatility mitigating" (to borrow your termonology). And I'm not sure it's fair to evaluate any of these funds based on recent performance (past 3-5 years).Underperformance may simply mean their managers are seeing insane valuations where others are seeing value and so are either hedging against equity losses or holding higher levels of cash.
    There's a lot of great ones. But here's my choices: OAKBX, TRRIX and PRPFX in roughly equal weightings. I toss them together in a group called "hybrids."
    Here's how they finished Friday: OAKBX -2%, TRRIX -1%, and PRPFX -0.7%
    Combined loss was -1.25%.
    (For reference, PRWCX lost 1.72%. Dow and S&P each lost 3%.)
  • Mod. Alloc. fund not named PRWCX (TRowe Price Cap. Apprec.)
    My existing Mod. Alloc. funds have been disappointing me for too many years (not just returns wise), therefore, I am considering reallocating those dollars. I want solid returns but not overly volatile for this class. In other words, excelent risk/reward returns and good downside protection is preferred.
    I'm looking to mitigate some of the volatility that my portfolio has. This down-turn has exposed some imbalances.
    These dollars are in an Fido Brokerage IRA so C/G concerns are zero! I also have about a 10-15 year time frame, thus this is a long-term investment!
    I've come across of few possible candidates, such as:
    MBEAX/MBEYX (AMG Chicago Equity Partners)
    RPBAX (TRowe Price Bal.)
    JABAX (Janus Bal.)
    FBALX (Fido Bal.)
    and a couple of others.
    Any thoughts on these funds or other suggestions would be greatly appreciated.
    Thank you, Matt
  • Fidelity Suffers Massive Active Funds Outflow
    Please, please, please let AUM in FLPSX, FBIOX and FCNTX get under $1B each so I can pour money into them.
  • Fidelity Suffers Massive Active Funds Outflow
    FYI: In our previous article we discussed that domestic equity-focused funds are facing tough time in terms of fund outflows. According to Morningstar data, US-focused mutual funds and exchange traded funds have seen $78.8 billion worth of outflows in the first seven months of 2015. Continued transfers from open-end mutual funds to collective investment trusts at Fidelity triggered much of the outflows. This is higher than any full year outflows since 1993. The money had instead been poured into international funds. (Read: Foreign Funds to Buy on Worst US Funds Outflow Since '93 ).
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/187314/fidelity-suffers-massive-active-funds-outflow?article_id=187314&type=BLOG