Fairholme's Public Conference Call Today - Summary ".even, Eddie Lampert, who he knows is no longer regarded very highly by public."
Well, at least he realizes that.
"And, to Scott's point, on when BB may have turned. I believe it was 2011 and he went all financials."
I understand that some people don't like diversification. However, I'm not going to sit and trade all day. Neither is a mutual fund.
I like Visa (to use an example.) Actually, I really like Visa. However, I would not want Visa to be half my portfolio. I have a good deal in various themes (credit cards, rails, etc.), but there is an attempt to orchestrate the portfolio so that I don't start feeling like one theme wholly and completely dominates daily, weekly, monthly or yearly performance. I really would not want to be so heavily reliant upon one name, either. This is just me, but if I saw a mutual fund I owned with half the portfolio in one name, I'd be out of it.
When you have a mutual fund like Fairholme set up like it is currently, the manager is asking for a level of belief that I don't think most investors in this day and age have, as these bets are going to take a long time to play out. Or are taking longer to play out than thought. Or in the case of Sears will play out when pigs fly.
It's almost better set up as a hedge fund where people are locked in until the occasional redemption period. Berkowitz saying that those invested with him now are "in it for the long haul" is laughable. When you have a fund whose performance is based largely around a few long-term bets (including one that is highly risky from the standpoint of its half your portfolio and the same company you said you'd walk away from in 2009 because you didn't understand its derivative book), once the performance starts to lag for 1,3 and even 5 years (people can't tolerate under-performance for 3-6 months in this day and age), people exit. I can't believe FAIRX still has the AUM it has, but it's down.
Mutual fund holders aren't going to wait for your thesis on Sears to play out. There's been so many examples of flight from star managers (Heebner and CGM Focus, which I still say was over-and-done once Cramer called it his favorite mutual fund on a morning TV show) that that should be obvious to anyone in the industry.
M*: Tempted by High(er) Yields On Junk Bonds? Read This First "Whereas the differential--or spread--dropped below 3.5 percentage points back in mid-2014, it was nearly two percentage points higher as of early February. That's because much of the issuance in the high-yield bond sector comes from energy firms, many of which took on debt to finance projects when oil prices were rising."
No, Christine, only about 10-15% of HY issuance is from energy firms, and the weak hands probably will start losing their grip during Q2. By the summer solstice, the fingernails on the cliff edge will have broken, and the damage can then be assessed, at the MF level. Until then, IMO, this Benz Bucket is good to go.