Raising cash in January?? Hi all,
I am adding an additional comment to this thread which reads ...
As of Friday December 26th market close Morningstar's Market Valuation Graph is reporting that stocks, in general, are selling at about six percent above their fair value. At these levels, I think I'll still continue with my plan to unwind my spiff and sell about another four to five percent of my equity allocation off over the coming weeks. In short words, I plan to reduce my allocation to equities by about ten percent during the first and possibly second quarter of 20
15 as long as stocks remain well overbought.
I have provided a link below to the graph for those that would like to reference it.
http://www.morningstar.com/market-valuation/market-fair-value-graph.aspxAnd, yes, I think now is a good time, for me, to rebalance and raise a little cash as I am now overweight equities within my asset allocation. I am not adding to my bond allocation as I have been studying my balanced and my asset allocation funds and, for the most part, they seem to be reducing thier bond allocation. Lately, I have been wanting to keep my overall allocation to bonds at about 25% within my portfolio; however, due to asset movement in my balanced and asset allocation funds my overall allocation to bonds has now dropped to about 22% within my portfolio.
Perhaps, this asset movement by some fund managers from fixed income securities to equity securities explains, in part, the current equity market rally propelling equities well into overbought territority.
Old_Skeet
World's Oldest and Largest Balanced Fund Distribution: VEWLX: 4.15% Regards,
Ted
Closing NAV $39.46; -(1.71): -4.15%
Dividend $0.27900: 12/24/2014(Record Date) 12/26/2014 (Reinvest Date) 12/29/2014 (Payable Date)
ST Cap Gain $0.20100: 12/24/2014 (Record Date) 12/26/2014 (Reivest Date) 12/29/2014 (Payable Date)
LT Cap Gain $1.30100: 12/24/2014( Record Date) 12/26/2014 (Reinvest Date) 12/29/2014 (Payble Date)
Raising cash in January?? @MFO Members: I agree with DlphcOracl that we are still in a secular bull market, and my forecast of a
15% return, made last February, in 20
14 for the S&P 500 is right on (2,2
15) target. For 20
15, I predict the S&P 500 will close at 2,40
1 a
13% rise for the year.
Regards,
Ted
Raising cash in January?? In a word, "No."
We are still in secular bull market, albeit probably in the late innings, and just entering the strongest quarter for stocks. Why play games to avoid a potential shallow 4-6% pullback lasting 1-2 weeks that you cannot time anyway.
Raising cash in January?? No. I'll add some more to a handful of things that I own next year and will bring back 1 or 2 things that I'd gotten out of as long-term holdings.
Has anyone investigated the Matthew 25 fund MXXVX ? >> not many funds have beaten the SP500 3% annualized for the past 20 years.
Correct, not many, though you mean 19y, right?
FLPSX is one. There may be some Vanguard likewise.
One thing that is interesting is that it began its 08-09 dive a full year prior, oddly. It is since the bottom (spring 09) that it has raced past everyone. Even FLVCX, amazingly. But that is only 5.5y.
Raising cash in January?? Hi mcmarasco,
Raising cash as I unwind my special equity spiff position that I built through most of October as we move into the 1st Quarter of 2015. For those that have been following my recent post then you know of my strategy in doing this.
I wish all … “Good Investing.”
Old_Skeet
Paul Merriman: Why Vanguard Total Stock Market Isn’t The Best Fund In The Fleet Here's some decent Vanguard information by another Market watch writer: FWIW...tb
“Quietly, Vanguard’s actively run funds have outperformed their more-famous index siblings,” said Morningstar researcher John Rekenthaler in a recent column, pointing to returns over the past 15 years. That’s a particularly striking result, since in general, most active funds aren’t able to beat their benchmarks consistently.
What’s Vanguard’s secret to success? It includes making sure its active funds are low-cost, as well as outsourcing the stock-picking to fund managers who go through an extensive screening process.
“We think we have a very good process for selecting managers,” Vanguard CEO Bill McNabb told MarketWatch. He also said: “If you’re going to take active risk, your best chance of preserving any outperformance is to have a low-cost portfolio.”
Raising cash in January?? I was just wondering in anyone is raising cash come the New Year?
I am planning to sell a couple of investments in early January to have some "dry powder" for the "impending" correction. Or so the belief is!
What are your thoughts on a down January (maybe February) considering the run-up the markets have had here late in 2014?
Thanks,
Matt
Is It Time to Throttle Back Equities? REPEAT:
Upcoming Correction
Tampabay
September 15 in Off-Topic Flag
“Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” – Peter Lynch
Paul Merriman: Why Vanguard Total Stock Market Isn’t The Best Fund In The Fleet FYI: For investors who want everything wrapped into a single package, Vanguard’s Total Stock Market Index fund seems a reasonable way to access U.S. large-cap blend stocks.
And there's plenty to like about Vanguard Total Stock Market Index VTSMX, +0.04% : Low expenses, massive diversification, low turnover and of course — no sales load.
But this fund falls far short of its "total market" title. In fact, the fund gives investors only a small part of what it takes to diversify a portfolio into the best asset classes. This is no small matter, since that diversification accounts for more than 90% of an investor's likely return.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-vanguard-total-stock-market-isnt-the-best-fund-in-the-fleet-2014-12-03/print
Is It Time to Throttle Back Equities? Hi folks,
Thanks to all that have made comment.
Here is what I have decided to do in management of my special equity investment spiff assuming the market continues its upward advancement.
Now that the S&P 500 Index is in striking distance of 2,100 I have decided to reduce my equity allocation by one percent for every twenty five point gain on the Index above the 2,100 mark. In doing this, the dollar value will remain about the same within equities but my cash position will grow as the Index advances and I move through the process.
Should there be a 125 point gain in the Index during the first quarter of 2015 with it reaching a value of about 2,225 then I’ll take a five percent reduction at the fifth 25 point step. In doing this I will have removed sums of approximate value for the spiff itself plus removed some capital appreciation form the equity side of the portfolio while at the same time increased my cash allocation by a like amounts through the process. Thus, I’ll be reducing my overall portfolio risk as equities have advanced; and, by my thinking continue to becoming well overbought. At this point I will revisit and revaluate my posture.
If the plan is successful then this special spiff will have produced better than a 13% return since mid October through an averaging in and out process.
Wishing all … “Good Investing”
Old_Skeet
Note: All of this is subject to change should the market move against me beyond a mild dip.
3 Best T. Rowe Price & Pimco Funds For 2015
Has anyone investigated the Matthew 25 fund MXXVX ?
Has anyone investigated the Matthew 25 fund MXXVX ? Hi again NumbersGal. Eye watering numbers...tears of joy long term and across full cycles, tears of pain during drawdowns...more severe than the annualized numbers show. But I suspect not many funds have beaten the SP500 3% annualized for the past 20 years. FWIW.
Hope all is well.
c
