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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Perkins (Janus) funds - openings, gains, tax strategy
    Interesting find. Yes, JMCVX (or JNMCX for "D" shares) still remains closed. Interesting to see Janus reopen JSCVX (or JNPSX for "D" shares) as I thought it was too large to manage. Fortunately, my JNMCX and JNPSX are in non-taxable accounts.
    In regards to your tax comment, I did the same thing. I sold my TMCGX in early November as I was one of the individuals that bought TMCGX when it reopened with a NAV around $50 in early 2011. I calculated a gain of roughly $50 to sell my entire TMCGX position prior to the $23 per share CG distribution. It would have cost me a lot more to take the $23 per share CG than sell my entire position. Now, I plan to put the money back after the distribution.
  • Sometimes (in the past active management beat passive
    From an article on Barron s website
    "From 1962 through 1981, the median actively managed fund returned nearly 70 percentage points more than the S&P 500 over those 20 years. Unfortunately, the good times didn’t last: From June 1983 to June 2014, the median fund underperformed the market by more than 80 percentage points."
    The author indicates that active outperforms more often in a rising interest enviornment
  • The 7 Best Investments Of 2014
    Wrong. Stock BLUE up over 100% last week alone.
  • The 7 Best Investments Of 2014
    FYI: Every year, new global trends emerge, old ones play out, and the financial markets adjust. This can offer new opportunities for investors to make money if their forecasts are accurate, their investments are timely, and they choose their assets well.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2014/12/13/247-wall-st-best-investments/20205629/
  • Have Small-Cap Stocks Suffered Enough?
    I too am keeping my small and mid cap funds be, have both FSCRX and HDPSX. I halved the Fidelity one this year based on aum was so high, transferring proceeds to the Hodges Small Cap. Each has done a bit over 1%. However, two small cap stocks played have done well, but I limit these trading stocks to small % of total.
  • Don't Outthink This.
    Attended a beautiful Christmas dinner party last night at a local winery...
    image
    Ended up sitting next to a couple that came in from Texas, big fans of the winery and area. Each had retired from major global oil companies after 31 years in the biz. One oversaw development projects world wide. Another worked the oil futures trading deck.
    Anyway, they inherited a ranch recently and are learning to herd cattle. We discussed the current rapid decline in oil prices and of course they took it in stride. "Oil's not going away." They believed the demand will continue to rise and this down turn will be rather short lived, perhaps a year or two.
    "Have you every herded cattle?" one asked. "It just takes one cow to start running in any direction and all the rest follow... Oil pricing is a very emotional business."
  • Perkins (Janus) funds - openings, gains, tax strategy
    Perkins Mid Cap Value Fund (JMCVX) - is closed according to all the filings I can find, is closed at Fidelity, but M* says is open, and E*Trade says it will sell the fund to new investors.
    Perkins Small Cap Value Fund (JSCVX) - will reopen Jan 1, per SEC filing
    Why this matters.
    Estimated distributions this week for these funds are around 20%. This is more than the appreciation of nearly every owner's shares since they purchased them. (For JSCVX, unless one purchased shares around 2008-2009, you'd have to go back to the last millennium to find shares that cost less than the ex-div price of these shares will be.)
    So, one may be better off liquidating, recognizing the smaller (long term) capital gains in the share price than taking the (larger) distribution, some of which may be taxed as ordinary income (unknown). Because these funds are (or will shortly be) available to new shareholders, it's not as important to retain a position.
    I'm not saying that these are bad or good investments. Just that from a tax perspective, this is one of those rare opportunities where selling around a dividend (sell, repurchase ex-div if one wants to stay with the fund) works for a lot of people. Often when that's the situation, it's because people have been selling off in droves, leaving the stragglers to split the fund's distributions among fewer shares.
  • Have Small-Cap Stocks Suffered Enough?
    Perhaps 2015 will be a good year for domestic small and mid caps. With this, I am still keeping my small/mid cap sleeve in tack and might do a little buying when they start to take command over their large cap cousins. Year-to-date my small/mid cap sleeve has return about 1.5% and over a full twelve month period about 5.5%.
    Old_Skeet
  • Open Thread: What Are You Buying/Selling/Pondering
    Hi mnzdedwards,
    So that is why cash has recently gone for plus twenty percent to about sixteen percent for EVBAX. I am still with this fund as I believe that it's manager, Kathleen Gaffney, has been recently buying plus, no doubt, there have been some redemptions. According to a recent Morningstar's Instant Xray analysis its current asset allocation is about 16% cash, 19% stocks, 42% bonds and 23% other.
    I plan to stick around because I feel through a full market cycle this will be a good performing diversified income fund as Ms. Gaffney was trained by the legendary Mr. Dan Fuss and it has the flexibility to roam within a broad spectrum in pursuit of opportunity.
    Old_Skeet
  • Have Small-Cap Stocks Suffered Enough?
    FYI: This year has felt like a hangover for owners of small-cap stock funds.
    On several occasions, small-cap stocks have dipped by more than 7 percent in just a matter of weeks. All told, they're close to flat for the year, a letdown from 2013 when they surged 37 percent. And the performance looks even worse when compared with large-cap stocks, which are up 11 percent. The last time small-caps had this bad a year relative to large-caps was when Google was still operating out of a garage in 1998.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://bigstory.ap.org/article/627fba8bec31447aa05828863df05165/have-small-cap-stocks-suffered-enough
    S&P 600: http://www.spindices.com/indices/equity/sp-600
    Russell 2000: http://money.cnn.com/data/markets/russell/
  • Don't Outthink This.
    DlphcOracl:
    You mention CP. I own CNI and CP as two of my top investments and personally, I don't even think about them on a day-to-day basis.
    If you asked me to mention stocks that I would feel comfortable holding for a few years, I could offer a lot of names. If you asked me names that I would feel comfortable holding for 5-10, there would be less. If you asked me for names that I can strongly imagine holding for 20-30+ years, it would be a short list and railroads would be at the top of it.
    EPD (and ETE) I don't think about on a day-to-day and I just reinvest dividends (with the added 5% DRIP discount.)
    CLR is really interesting, but I think my problem with this drop in oil is that it's effected things that I own beyond the oil-related (look at Ecolab/ECL, which is primarily a hygiene company, but because an aspect of their business is related to fracking, that's taken a hit. Ecolab's largest shareholder is Bill Gates and the company has raised the dividend I believe every year for something like nearly 30 years.
    So, for me, it becomes difficult to add something like CLR. I say that now though, and maybe in a few days it winds up at a price I can't resist. Who knows.
    LYB is something I've explored not much beyond the surface, but I think the first thing that I thought of was, "Well, isn't what they make their product from now cheaper?" I guess the issue becomes:
    "LyondellBasell may be a producer of ethylene, but it has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of the U.S. shale revolution. It has converted much of its U.S. chemicals facilities to run on natural gas feedstock, specifically ethane, that is cheap and abundant thanks to new fracking techniques. That has given LyondellBasell and other U.S. chemicals producers like Westlake Chemical a huge advantage over foreign companies that use oil-based naphtha as a feedstock. Now that Saudi Arabia has cut prices for U.S. oil exports and Brent crude has hit a four-year low, the so-called ethane advantage has shrunk considerably."
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanvardi/2014/11/04/billionaire-len-blavatniks-lyondellbasell-trade-looks-a-little-less-great-after-oil-price-drop/?partner=yahootix
    I think the LYB situation could certainly turn around within a reasonable time frame. The advantage that they have has shrunk, but the feedstock for the product they make is only now cheaper, so I suppose I'm questioning the decline in the stock, which seems overdone for the reason above.
  • Don't Outthink This.
    Replies to linter, MikeM and Derf:
    linter: When I bought those energy stocks in September it was for a ST to intermediate term "swing trade". I did not perceive that the energy stocks were in the midst of a bear market and I did not have any conviction that these were compelling stock values. Rather, I still thought the energy sector was in a bull market, as was/is the rest of the stock market, and that this was a correction that would quickly reverse itself. Wrong !!
    My reason for putting 10% stocks underneath all of those positions once they had been completed is because I am, as most of you are, an amateur investor and I do not have inside knowledge or an "edge". It is a counter to my hubris that I "cannot possibly be wrong" and it gets me out of ST/IT trades when it becomes apparent that there is something else at work that I do not see or understand. That said, investing at current levels is an entirely different matter and whether I employ a stop is now stock and investment specific.
    For example, Oasis Petroleum is a SC stock that has lost over 80% (yikes!!) of its value in six months and now has a price:book ratio of .66 and a PEG or .17. However, it is also has a VERY high debt level and I believe the steep selloff in this stock represents concerns about its solvency and profitability in the near future. I WILL place a 10% stop loss underneath this stock once I have finished averaging in because this is a highly speculative position. Conversely, Whiting Petroleum (WLL) has lost 70% in three months and has a price:book value of .66. However, it has a market cap of nearly 4 billion dollars and has been a very well managed company. Morningstar's energy analyst (and I always find M* to be overly conservative in its stock evaluations) believes in its most recent report of 12/02/2014 that the fair value of WLL based on its holdings is $84 per share. I will NOT put a stop under WLL because I do not foresee a situation where it could go to zero. I am prepared to ride this one out for 3-5 years. I feel similarly about investments in LYB, CP, and several of the high quality MLPs with high, safe dividends (WPZ, OKS, EPD, etc.)
    MikeM: I agree with your points regarding usage of stops and hope I have clarified how I intend to use them this go-around in my reply to "linter". The majority of positions I am averaging into are stocks, ETFs (MLPI, PXI), and MLPs that I believe are high quality investments that are compelling LT holds and they will not have 10% stop-loss orders placed underneath them. My investing horizon for these positions is LT, i.e., 3-5 years. The few highly speculative "swing-for-the-fences" positions such as OAS will be stop-loss protected.
    Derf: No one really knows where the price of WTI crude will bottom but one has to make an educated guess. Two of the most well-respected figures in the energy industry, both with many decades of experience and billions of dollars of skin in the game, are Boone Pickens and Harold Hamm (CEO of Continental Resources/CLR) and both thought it would bottom at around $60. Clearly, both have been proven wrong. CNBC's Dennis Gartman and the staff writer for Barron's (Gene Epstein) believe it could settle at $30-$40 per barrel. I'm placing my bets with Pickens and Hamm and investing accordingly.
    One last word to frame this discussion and put it in perspective - these investments in beaten down energy stocks and peripheral stocks dragged down with them (chemical & railroad stocks), ETFs and MLPs will, in total, make up no more than 10% of my entire portfolio. The vast majority of my portfolio is held in ETFs and MFs that I do not trade in and out of. This is Madd Money, i.e. a cash position of 10% to 15% that I intermittently hold for employing into unforeseen investment opportunities. As stated above, every year or two one of these opportunities comes out of nowhere. It is an attempt to "juice" my overall portfolio. Any and all comments and criticisms are welcomed. This is still a learning experience for me, as well.
  • Don't Outthink This.
    Short, sweet post from folks at Alpha Architect...in-line with DlphcOracl's position here:
    Oil Stocks: A Real-Time Case Study in Value Investing
  • Don't Outthink This.
    Ha! I take it back...a closer look at the monthly oil data shows that most of price drop in 1980s occurred over short few month period in early 1986. Steep, heavy drops happened again in 1991 and 2008!
    Interesting to see that oil has never recovered to pre-financial crisis levels...we remain in the same drawdown, 78 months and counting...
    Here's plot of data from Energy Info Administration:
    image
  • Don't Outthink This.
    DO says: However, ALL of them got stopped out when they hit -10% of my average NAV after I had completed those positions.
    I ask: So if you had your stop at -10% then, I can only assume that you're using a similar stop now. If oil drops to $50, won't you be stopped out of all your positions well before that point? Or are you not using stops at this (low?) level?
  • Liquid Alts. How much of your portfolio should be in them?
    I have been watching on the sideline on this " alternatives" while holding with a healthy % of cash and short term bond funds. I welcome another 10% drop as of this Friday - great entry points.
  • Don't Outthink This.
    Really good thread! Thanks everybody for sharing. Thanks to DlphcOracl for starting. Enjoyed reading all points.
    What strikes me is how fast it dropped. During the 1980 oil bust, which turned Houston into a ghost town, I believe the 70% decline took six years ($33/barrel in 1980 to $10 in 1986) ... this time we're almost there in just three months!
    Here's a recent article related to Scott's energy debt posts...from the Houston Chronicle no less:
    Memories of '80s oil bust keep bank regulators vigilant
  • So? Does one just go all in for Healthcare sectors to make a buck today?
    Example sometimes Demo's best:
    I had some extra money on Sept.17th bought VHT for $117.80 no commissions from vanguard Today it is 126.47 (+7.3% profit) in three months, after being down -2.53% this week like everything else, otherwise I make 10%+ for short term investing, still might before EOY ......just saying...Healthcare....