Don't Outthink This. Replies to linter, MikeM and Derf:
linter: When I bought those energy stocks in September it was for a ST to intermediate term "swing trade". I did not perceive that the energy stocks were in the midst of a bear market and I did not have any conviction that these were compelling stock values. Rather, I still thought the energy sector was in a bull market, as was/is the rest of the stock market, and that this was a correction that would quickly reverse itself. Wrong !!
My reason for putting 10% stocks underneath all of those positions once they had been completed is because I am, as most of you are, an amateur investor and I do not have inside knowledge or an "edge". It is a counter to my hubris that I "cannot possibly be wrong" and it gets me out of ST/IT trades when it becomes apparent that there is something else at work that I do not see or understand. That said, investing at current levels is an entirely different matter and whether I employ a stop is now stock and investment specific.
For example, Oasis Petroleum is a SC stock that has lost over 80% (yikes!!) of its value in six months and now has a price:book ratio of .66 and a PEG or .17. However, it is also has a VERY high debt level and I believe the steep selloff in this stock represents concerns about its solvency and profitability in the near future. I WILL place a 10% stop loss underneath this stock once I have finished averaging in because this is a highly speculative position. Conversely, Whiting Petroleum (WLL) has lost 70% in three months and has a price:book value of .66. However, it has a market cap of nearly 4 billion dollars and has been a very well managed company. Morningstar's energy analyst (and I always find M* to be overly conservative in its stock evaluations) believes in its most recent report of 12/02/2014 that the fair value of WLL based on its holdings is $84 per share. I will NOT put a stop under WLL because I do not foresee a situation where it could go to zero. I am prepared to ride this one out for 3-5 years. I feel similarly about investments in LYB, CP, and several of the high quality MLPs with high, safe dividends (WPZ, OKS, EPD, etc.)
MikeM: I agree with your points regarding usage of stops and hope I have clarified how I intend to use them this go-around in my reply to "linter". The majority of positions I am averaging into are stocks, ETFs (MLPI, PXI), and MLPs that I believe are high quality investments that are compelling LT holds and they will not have 10% stop-loss orders placed underneath them. My investing horizon for these positions is LT, i.e., 3-5 years. The few highly speculative "swing-for-the-fences" positions such as OAS will be stop-loss protected.
Derf: No one really knows where the price of WTI crude will bottom but one has to make an educated guess. Two of the most well-respected figures in the energy industry, both with many decades of experience and billions of dollars of skin in the game, are Boone Pickens and Harold Hamm (CEO of Continental Resources/CLR) and both thought it would bottom at around $60. Clearly, both have been proven wrong. CNBC's Dennis Gartman and the staff writer for Barron's (Gene Epstein) believe it could settle at $30-$40 per barrel. I'm placing my bets with Pickens and Hamm and investing accordingly.
One last word to frame this discussion and put it in perspective - these investments in beaten down energy stocks and peripheral stocks dragged down with them (chemical & railroad stocks), ETFs and MLPs will, in total, make up no more than 10% of my entire portfolio. The vast majority of my portfolio is held in ETFs and MFs that I do not trade in and out of. This is Madd Money, i.e. a cash position of 10% to 15% that I intermittently hold for employing into unforeseen investment opportunities. As stated above, every year or two one of these opportunities comes out of nowhere. It is an attempt to "juice" my overall portfolio. Any and all comments and criticisms are welcomed. This is still a learning experience for me, as well.
Don't Outthink This.
Don't Outthink This. Ha! I take it back...a closer look at the monthly oil data shows that most of price drop in
1980s occurred over short few month period in early
1986. Steep, heavy drops happened again in
199
1 and 2008!
Interesting to see that oil has never recovered to pre-financial crisis levels...we remain in the same drawdown, 78 months and counting...
Here's plot of data from Energy Info Administration:
Don't Outthink This. DO says: However, ALL of them got stopped out when they hit -10% of my average NAV after I had completed those positions.
I ask: So if you had your stop at -10% then, I can only assume that you're using a similar stop now. If oil drops to $50, won't you be stopped out of all your positions well before that point? Or are you not using stops at this (low?) level?
Liquid Alts. How much of your portfolio should be in them? I have been watching on the sideline on this " alternatives" while holding with a healthy % of cash and short term bond funds. I welcome another 10% drop as of this Friday - great entry points.
Don't Outthink This. Really good thread! Thanks everybody for sharing. Thanks to DlphcOracl for starting. Enjoyed reading all points.
What strikes me is how fast it dropped. During the
1980 oil bust, which turned Houston into a ghost town, I believe the 70% decline took six years ($33/barrel in
1980 to $
10 in
1986) ... this time we're almost there in just three months!
Here's a recent article related to Scott's energy debt posts...from the Houston Chronicle no less:
Memories of '80s oil bust keep bank regulators vigilant
So? Does one just go all in for Healthcare sectors to make a buck today? Example sometimes Demo's best:
I had some extra money on Sept.17th bought VHT for $117.80 no commissions from vanguard Today it is 126.47 (+7.3% profit) in three months, after being down -2.53% this week like everything else, otherwise I make 10%+ for short term investing, still might before EOY ......just saying...Healthcare....