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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • A Portfolio Review Question
    Looking up the performance on DoubleLine's two flagship funds, I see DBLTX comes in at the 12th percentile ytd while DBLFX is at the 7th percentile (per M*). These would seem to be the results of those Gundlach forecasts that count as more than parlor games.
  • MAPIX dividend update.
    There is a terse discussion over at the M* forums on this same topic. Some additional thoughts can be read over there.
    http://socialize.morningstar.com/NewSocialize/forums/p/343430/3593192.aspx#PageIndex=1
  • A Portfolio Review Question
    I tend to think Gundlach maybe onto something but as others mentioned, not always right. Then again I don't know if any forecaster that has a 100% correct record. Does he have a ego? Most definitely. A few months ago an article ran which was linked here a few times regarding an interview with the Gundlach. I think his house garnered most of the attention. He comes across as a bit of a control freak. (Could be worse).
    I would trust him over Gross though.
  • College Savers May Get More Flexibility In 529 Plans
    FYI: More flexibility on changing your 529-plan investments could be on the way.
    Congress is likely to pass a bill that would allow investors in 529 college savings plans to make changes to their investment holdings twice a year—rewriting a major restriction that parents have faced with these plans since they launched in the 1990s.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://blogs.wsj.com/totalreturn/2014/12/10/college-savers-may-get-more-flexibility-in-529-plans/tab/print/?mg=blogs-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fblogs.wsj.com%2Ftotalreturn%2F2014%2F12%2F10%2Fcollege-savers-may-get-more-flexibility-in-529-plans%2Ftab%2Fprint&fpid=2,121
  • A Portfolio Review Question

    Jeffrey Gundlach
    According to Advisor Perspectives, his 2013 projections were not all that solid.
    All of professor Phil Tetlock’s numerous forecaster accuracy studies consistently demonstrate the futility of these exercises.
    I don't think Gundlach or similar perspectives should be looked at as projections but as a framework for possible outcomes. I posted them because I think it provides a most likely scenario. If anything, it challenges the 'conventional wisdom' (which the original definition was that it was wrong but now means what is thought to be correct). In addition, the second link I posted uses historical info in the US and Japan to come to the same conclusion as Gundlach.
  • A Portfolio Review Question
    Hi BobC and All Contributors,
    Thank you all for your perceptive contributions. BobC, you helped focus my attention and I agree with many of your keen and penetrating insights. You are spot on-target.
    Jeffrey Gundlach has certainly prospered from a long and controversial career that included his heated and forced departure from TCW. His continued success story in the bond market is undeniable. He is definitely a serious forecaster who deserves respect.
    Here is a Link that provides viewgraphs from his 2014 forward looking expectations:
    http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/01/Gundlah Year of the Horse.pdf
    According to Advisor Perspectives, his 2013 projections were not all that solid. Nobody has a perfect record in the investment business. Even some of his 2014 predictions seem to be heading, perhaps momentarily, in the wrong direction. According to some folks in the industry, Gundlach is an arrogant, overly confident guru; that’s a necessary characteristic. It’s very acceptable given his superior track performance, but buyer beware.
    Here is a Link to Advisor Perspectives’ interpretation of Gundlach’s 2014 projections:
    http://www.advisorperspectives.com/newsletters14/Gundlachs_Forecast_for_2014.php
    Regardless of his many successes and a few failures, I remain hugely suspicious of any long-term economic forecasts, especially from the macroeconomic community. These have a sad historical accuracy record. The odds deteriorate with time.
    All of professor Phil Tetlock’s numerous forecaster accuracy studies consistently demonstrate the futility of these exercises. It is a daunting challenge to forecast even the next quarter’s outcome, and a near impossibility to look 10 years into the future. Accuracy degrades rapidly over time, especially among the economists cohort who seem to be very fragile in the forecasting arena. According to studies that date back into the 1930s, forecasters can’t forecast.
    Like Catch22, I too like MFO poster bflotomny’s original balanced mutual fund portfolio. Both the Vanguard Wellington and Wellesley funds have proven performance records. I have held both these Vanguard products in my portfolio for over 20 years. I also have held a third Balance fund, Dodge and Cox Balance mutual fund, for over 2 decades. This formidable triad gives me geographic management thinking diversification.
    Thanks again for an excellent set of submittals. This includes everyone. I concur that no immediate action is necessary.
    Best Regards.
  • MAPIX dividend update.
    So M* has it 4% above its benchmark and 0.16% below its category YTD, and 1.66% below its category for the last 12 months: even the best funds have a stretch of underperformance now and then, this strikes me as not bad for a fund with an excellent long-term record and superior downside protection (beat its category by 16 points in 2008.)
    Another factor to consider is that the management change coincides with this stretch of underperformance. Foster and Madsen, both gone now, made that "excellent long-term record" (including 2008), not current management.
  • Morgan Stanley On The Market: December
    "...All told, this is not the time to be bearish on Japan... we think it means that
    non-US equities are likely to perk up, and perhaps even outperform the S&P 500...I'm
    seeing 12%-to-15% earnings growth in Europe next year... In 92% of the time when interest rates rise, value beats growth.... I'm still concerned about China. I would focus on emerging countries that do a lot of business with the US. So, in Asia, I like Hong Kong and Taiwan, and I still like Mexico—but not much else..."
  • Liquid Alts. How much of your portfolio should be in them?

    0%
    "Wall Street's New Happy Hour" (from last July)
    http://money.cnn.com/2014/07/14/investing/liquid-alternatives/
    Is cash a liquid alternative? In that case, I'd guess 5-35% depending on age would be appropriate.
  • A Portfolio Review Question
    Currently --- USA, China, Japan, Europe are all worried about and trying to avoid deflation.
    If interest rates rise there will be external pressure for the USA to institute a VAT, slowing economic growth and lowering inflation - look at Europe and Japan.
    Longer term --- the world population is going from 7B in 2000 to 10B in 2050 - that is a 42.8% increase. The world went from 1B in 1800 to 10B in 250 years. USA, China, Japan, Europe populations are ageing during this time while the growth in population is in 3rd world countries. The effects are wide ranging - research it.
    I know I'm going against the trend but I would be more concerned about deflation.
  • Q&A With Burt Malkiel
    FYI: The author of "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" has walked all the way to Silicon Valley.
    Burton Malkiel has been giving much the same investing advice for four decades: Keep fees low and don’t believe advisers and fund managers who promise to beat the market. Lately, he's championed global diversification, and especially emerging market stocks. Lots of people have listened to the Princeton University professor -- “A Random Walk" is on its 11th edition and has sold more than 1.5 million copies
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-09/burt-malkiel-walk-away-from-2015-know-it-alls.html
  • PIMCO Drama Helped Create Vident ETF
    FYI: Ronald Blue & Co., the Atlanta-based registered investment advisor that manages $8 billion for its clients—many of them Christians, grew nervous early this year when PIMCO’s senior strategist Mohamed El-Erian left suddenly amid talk that he and star fund manager Bill Gross were feuding.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.etf.com/sections/features/24013-pimco-drama-helped-create-vident-etf.html?tmpl=component&print=1&layout=default&page=
  • Morningstar's Portfolio Manager Price Updating Concern ...
    Hi Ralph and others,
    I am now following my portfolio in three venues. They are Morningstar, Bloomberg and Yahoo.
    Come the first of the year I plan to reduce this to two venues and I am not so sure that Morningstar will be the one that gets cut as I like many of the features and tools that it's protfolio manager system provides. Currently, I do like Yahoo Finance the best of these three because it provides the most timely pricing for the mutal funds that I own. And, I do like some of the fearutes found in Bloomberg Portfolio too; but, have found it much like Morningstar to be slow, at times, in updating some price information on some of the funds that I own.
    With all the issues I have read about and found to exist myself with Morningstar's Portfolio Manager I don't think we are going to see any quick fixes. There is just something that they are having problems with and can not yet seem to wrap their arms around and put a good squeeze on it that results in a long lasting fix.
    So, one might do as I now do and track their portfolio in multi venues; and, then reduce down to a couple that are felt to be the best.
    I am moving on ... as I feel to continue to labor on this subject will do little good. Besides I've got better things to do with my time. If Morningstar chooses to continue with those that are currently in command over this area and they are satisfied with the product that is being currently delivered then I don't think we are going to see much of a change. For a change to happen at Morningstar, they will have to become unhappy with this substandard price delivery found within their portfolio manager system and demand of those responsible that a better product has to be delivered to the end users. Somebody at Morningstar needs to be calling a come meet Jesus meeting with those responsible.
    My thoughts are that they need to run more frequent price updates through the evening, perhaps every twenty minutes or so and hopefully by 10:00 PM EST everyting will have updated with current day ending nav pricing. Hopefully, this would prevent stale pricing from carrying over through the holiday and weekend periods in portfolio manager.
    Again, I moving on ... Hopefully, they will figure this out and it will soon get fixed.
    Old_Skeet
  • A Portfolio Review Question
    Look, it seems pretty clear that when the Fed begins moving the Fed Funds Rate higher, that it will be in small 1/4% increments. I do not buy into the deflation argument at all, and I am not convinced that Mr. Gundlach is any more visionary than was Mr. Gross. Successful money managers are right more than they are wrong, but they seldom talk about about their mistakes. For Mr. Gundlach's scenario to play out, there have to be a lot of ducks lined up and falling at just the right time.
    As an aside, the Saudis real goal is to destroy the economies of Iran and Russia, two countries that would love to see the Saudis gone. And that is a much bigger goal than to hurt the U.S. energy renaissance.
    As for owning risk assets, historically these have done pretty well during periods of rising interest rates. The problem for the so-called gurus is that most of them were in grade school the last time we saw rising rates and real inflation.
  • A Portfolio Review Question
    Howdy @bflotomny
    The below two links are nice compostion views of the two funds you currently hold; and you may click on other header tabs for more information.
    Both fund's equity holdings are towards the large cap area and the bond sectors are investment grade with varying percentage mixes between gov't and corp. Both funds are U.S. centric focused; with a touch of foreign equity and bonds.
    --- VWIAX / VWINX is about 35/65 split of equity/bond with a 2.9% yield
    --- VWELX is about 65/35 split of equity/bond with a 2.3% yield
    I don't find added value/performance/risk protection from the other 3 funds you noted; versus your two current holdings. The yields of these 3 range from 2.4-2.8%, the equity portions are large cap and the bond sectors are also investment grade.
    IMO, you would only be swapping around equity and bond holdings that are very similar in type among other funds, versus what you now have.
    The combination of your funds, VWIAX and VWELX ,is basically a 50/50 U.S. centered equity/bond holding with low expenses, proven management and decent total returns over a long period of time.
    I agree with @kevindow to maintain the current funds; which give you a moderate allocation and IMO is fine for your age bracket, of which I am a part, too.
    And yes, anything could affect these funds; including rising interest rates. I would be confident that management will "adjust" holdings as needed.
    I'm sure you are aware of the above; so I am mostly writing outloud from my quick look regarding your question. There is always something to learn. I/we don't hold either of these funds.
    VWELX composition
    VWIAX/VWINX composition
    Take care,
    Catch
  • A New Twist on an Easy All-in-One Fund (GAA)
    Here's link to the fact sheet for GAA...
    Cambria Global Asset Allocation (GAA)
    The Cambria Global Asset Allocation EtF targets investing in approximately 29 EtFs that
    reflect the global universe of assets consisting of domestic and foreign stocks, bonds, real
    estate, commodities and currencies.
  • The 5 Best Fidelity Funds for 2015
    FYI: But fear not. My list of the best Fidelity funds for 2015 is designed to help you complement your existing portfolio or deliver a standalone portfolio that both runs the gamut and still delivers reasonable returns.
    Before I get to my picks, let me state unabashedly and categorically that I invest in actively managed funds for three reasons: (1) My chosen active managers tend to beat their benchmarks in both bull and bear markets. (2) Fidelity’s low-cost, no-load, shareholder-focused lineup is second to none. (3) The best way to own any ETF (including Fidelity’s own commission free offerings) is only in tandem with a superior actively managed fund. In the topsy-turvy marketplace of 2015, having the following Fidelity experts help you pursue growth and income investments at home and globally isn’t just recommended. I think it’s required.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://investorplace.com/2014/12/5-best-fidelity-funds-2015/print
  • MAPIX dividend update.
    So M* has it 4% above its benchmark and 0.16% below its category YTD, and 1.66% below its category for the last 12 months: even the best funds have a stretch of underperformance now and then, this strikes me as not bad for a fund with an excellent long-term record and superior downside protection (beat its category by 16 points in 2008.)