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I don't think Gundlach or similar perspectives should be looked at as projections but as a framework for possible outcomes. I posted them because I think it provides a most likely scenario. If anything, it challenges the 'conventional wisdom' (which the original definition was that it was wrong but now means what is thought to be correct). In addition, the second link I posted uses historical info in the US and Japan to come to the same conclusion as Gundlach.
Jeffrey Gundlach
According to Advisor Perspectives, his 2013 projections were not all that solid.
All of professor Phil Tetlock’s numerous forecaster accuracy studies consistently demonstrate the futility of these exercises.
Another factor to consider is that the management change coincides with this stretch of underperformance. Foster and Madsen, both gone now, made that "excellent long-term record" (including 2008), not current management.So M* has it 4% above its benchmark and 0.16% below its category YTD, and 1.66% below its category for the last 12 months: even the best funds have a stretch of underperformance now and then, this strikes me as not bad for a fund with an excellent long-term record and superior downside protection (beat its category by 16 points in 2008.)
The Cambria Global Asset Allocation EtF targets investing in approximately 29 EtFs that
reflect the global universe of assets consisting of domestic and foreign stocks, bonds, real
estate, commodities and currencies.
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