Gonna run away from home or getting one's clock cleaned..... Hi Catch22 and other posters,
My portfolio's holdings, according to M*, are collectively off their fifty two week highs by about five percent. I am not doing much of anything as I have been expecting a pull back for sometime now and with this I have been carrying a good allocation to cash since my recent sell off of my equity spiff position the first part of April and, as I write, I have a ytd gain (portfolio) of about 3.7%
I am planning on a limited watch as we move through the summer and most likely start buying around the edges as we approach fall. By then, corporate earnings should start to improve. Not in a hurry though because fall ... September & October ... where I usually ramp up my equity allocation is now about five to six months away. And, I have got a lot of things planned to do this summer.
Currently, my portfolio's asset allocation, rounded, is about 20% cash, 20% bonds,
50% stocks and 10% other. Within stocks I am about 65% domestic and 35% foreign.
If stocks as measured by the S&P 500 Index dip by about 10% down towards the low 1900's then I start to perk up and do some strong looking. But, we are now only about a mere two percent off the Index's recent high. The Index will have to get down to about the 2010's range before I reduce summer activities and start spending more time watching the markets. Currently, I don't plan to do any selling ... but, I might.
Should my portfolio's assets reach a decline of ten percent off their fifty two week highs ... Well, I am still covered with my twenty percent cash position. Now, if it should go beyond a ten percent decline, then I'll need to start raising my cash position through an asset sell down process to rebalance and raise my cash position.
Signing out ... and, now 'hopefully' gone for the summer to enjoy some R&R.
Old_Skeet
Gonna run away from home or getting one's clock cleaned..... .........well, not much in happy land in many places during the recent days........the last week or so with softness in equity and bonds. 'Course, such a broad statement does imply that there are not areas that are somewhat happy; but not unlike a young person or an adult who sometimes states that they are going to run away from home.........likely from having a bad day, etc. :)..........even "investors" have periods when they want to "run away from investments", yes?
Well, your house (investments) is also likely getting its "clock cleaned" from recent market actions.
Some equity market areas during the past month had about 8% down moves and then flattened for a short period of time. But, this has reversed again. India being an example of a big run in the last 12 months +, then down about 8%, but further down May 6 dropping another 2.5% or so. Aussieland also found a large drop (>2%), reportedly due in part to poor earnings in the banking sector.
All investor returns will be different, of course; but the consideration is in place for this house to reduce equity holdings today (May 6) to protect very pleasing returns so far this year from investments in particular in HEDJ. Some healthcare may also be reduced; although the gains from these holdings has been from a period of years and not months.
Ya, I know; don't be a trader or time the markets. I'll have to name this as intuition.
Broad drawdowns will likely not be more than 10%, yes? Or you best guess.
At times, I recall a portion of information displayed upon the "old" hometown movie theatre screen before the main movie............."Preview of coming attractions". Attempting to determine the "coming attractions related to investments".
Well, just some early morning (1 cup of coffee) jabber.
NOTE: this write was started and planned to be posted on May 5, but other schedules changed this.
Regards,
Catch
Robo Adviser Tackles College Savings Nothing wrong with 529 plans, but in the priority of savings they fall far lower on the savings ladder. I would first fully fund an employer's retirement match through a workplace / self directed retirement account. Second on the savings wrung would be to fully fund a Roth IRA. Third would be funding an emergency fund in a (taxable account) equal to 3-6-9-12 months of one's salary. As important, would be to have a plan to pay off high interest loans (revolving credit).
As a "good" parent we think saving for college is a requirement. My opinion is that the fewer dollars specifically ear marked for funding college the more dollars will be offered to your college student in financial aid (grants, loans, internships, work study, etc) as they are mostly all needs based.
Your college student should strive to be a good candidate to get into college (good academics, athletic, and civic minded), but they should also be a good candidate for financial help.
Nothing wrong with 529 plans other than you are short changing your kid the opportunity to receive financial aid and sticking them with the burden and guilt of your financial insecurity.
Let your kid be needy...they'll thank you for it.
Robo Adviser Tackles College Savings
Vanguard Officially Launches Its Robo Adviser, Drops Minimum Investment To $50,000
Suggestions for "Near-Cash" Re msf's question:
JohnC is correct that "funds-of-funds" should be viewed differently and might warrant a higher allocation. One of these, RPSIX, currently comprises my largest holding at just over 14%.
1. I prefer to view money management decisions in terms of percentages (not in dollar sums).
2. I don't have set limits. However, I become uncomfortable when any one fund exceeds about 20% of total assets. With equity funds, 10% in any single fund is enough.
3. I believe it's wise to diversify (fairly evenly) among at least 3 different fund houses or other custodians.
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Added: The above reflects the thinking of a 70+ year-old, 15-20 years into retirement, already in the distribution stage. Were I younger, I'd have a higher risk tolerance and would be much more concentrated in a few good growth funds.
Suggestions for "Near-Cash" I can say that VWENX is my largest holding at just under $100,000, but that's because I've reinvested dividends for several years. As a result, the fund has grown to that amount coupled with capital gains of course. But I would never just drop $100,000 on one fund at this time. As I said, I'm a bit apprehensive given the current market valuations.
Suggestions for "Near-Cash" Personally, I would never drop $100,000 in any single offering, whether it be a bond or fund/stock. I'm a very cautious, conservative investor.
This raises an interesting question. You wrote that your portfolio is around $
1M, so (quickly doing the long division :-)) that means that you would not put more than
10% in a single fund.
That rules out
"couch potato" portfolios. What do people feel is a maximum percentage to allocate to a holding, or should it be a dollar amount (so a $5M portfolio might hold 50+ funds)?
3 out of 4 retirees receiving reduced Social Security benefits @msf and
@Junkster, Thanks to both of you for those clear and informative answers. The statistics show we are living longer but as with any statistical study, there is a mean average. So 50% don't make it to that certain age and 50% go beyond it. On which side am I or anyone else here? Well, that is the million dollar question. Family history and physical shape are good determinating factors but they are not
100%. In my case, my family has a history of long life well into the 80's and beyond. Then again, there is also a family history of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and cancer. I already have the diabetes. So for me, taking it while the taking is good seems to be the prudent choice.