I agree with you, @yugo, that commodities may be a good sector to take a bet on. A commodities index basket like DBC is a good way do it, but man, the sector can be volatile. I'm taking a more conservative approach to commodities using COM, Direxion Auspice Broad Commodity Strategy ETF. I started a holding about a month ago.
If interested, here's some info from their website.
https://www.direxion.com/product/auspice-broad-commodity-strategy-etf?utm_source=PPC-Paid-Search&utm_medium=Text&utm_source_platform=Bing&utm_campaign=NL_Product_COM&keyword=etfs%20commodity&msclkid=b02c7c1e8c281a5e3d591a5e6fdd74ce

A current selection of article titles from M*'s earnings section:
Is Home Depot Stock a Buy Going Into Earnings?
Is Coinbase Stock a Buy After Earnings?
Is Palantir Stock a Buy After Earnings?
Roblox: Weakening Engagement Weighs On Growth
Energy Transfer: M&A Drives Guidance Increase
Arm: Shares Fall as 2025 Guidance Disappoints
Is Microsoft Stock a Buy After Earnings?
Is Alphabet Stock a Buy After Earnings?
Is Amazon Stock a Buy After Earnings?
Is ServiceNow Stock a Buy After Earnings?
Is Berkshire Hathaway Stock a Buy After Earnings?
These clickbaity titles are very Buzzfeed-y and not something I'd expect to see from a reputable investing site. Heck, not even SeekingAlpha is that bad .... and frankly I'm finding far more useful information/discussions/ideas over there (esp in the comments sections) than M*. Glad I only paid a tiny fraction of the regular price to see what had changed in recent years - frankly I'm not impressed w/them anymore; in perusing their content this past month, they seem to have strayed from the things that used to make them more unique/useful in my mind and become just another retail-oriented investing news site no different than anyone else.

You did a good job providing evidence of why the SP500 is what most should hold.

Shouldn't an individual investor's circumstances and risk tolerance / risk capacity be considered?
While S&P 500 index funds are an excellent choice for US large cap exposure,
high-quality bonds should probably be included in many investor's portfolios for risk reduction.
I know you primarily invest in bonds and routinely avoid stocks based on prior posts.
One size does not fit all...

You did a good job providing evidence of why the SP500 is what most should hold.

@FD1000...ya I see your point but you are leaving the risk equation out of the picture...the ole sequence of return risk.
Most will crap their shorts when the market draws down 30 to 40%
They'll never stay with and will bail out likely at the bottom

I can always discuss bad behavior. Why a Div investor would hold and the SP500 would not? High Div isn't a guarantee for better performance or a lower risk.
It's all a mindset until the 70s when healthy blue chips paid Div. Then came the tech revolution and these companies don't use it anymore while some believe it's still going on.

Whoa ! My car insurance jumped 60% from April 2023 to October 2023 ! From $50.18 to $94.32. For six months on a 1998 BMW M Roadster. It went up another $2 this April. I'm not going to complain. OK, I don't carry collision or comprehensive, but still.
Over the years, State Farm has done right by me on several occasions. I don't think about switching. (The Volvo only went up 13%, mainly due to Property Protection.)

This ought to be a fun thread. Something about dividends seems to get some folks animated. :)

It usually does over @ Bogleheads. :)
As a dividend investor I don't really care about dividends that are 0-3.0 yield. So what if Apple pays 0.55%? IMO that's not worthy of a 'dividend discussion' other than noting it's a tech company paying *something*. Whoop-de-doo. I'll stick with well-covered dividends from traditional sources, most of which are 'value' companies.
Dividend investing is supposed to be boring. Growth investing, by its very nature, is anything but.

The graphic is set for the 5 days ending May 10, Friday; for the best to worst % returns in select etf categories. One may then also select the one month column to align the one month return best to worst; or for the other listed time frame columns.
ADD an etf performance of your choosing, if you desire. ***
*** Requested ADD: For the week and YTD
--- MINT = +.09% / +2.3% Pimco Ultra Short Term Enhanced Bonds
--- EWW = +2.5% / +.91% (I Shares, Mexico)
MMKT note: Fidelity core mmkt's yields remain basically unchanged this week, having .01% yields downward, with core acct's yields at 4.95% (SPAXX) and 4.98% (FDRXX).
NOTE: The broad U.S. equity and bond sectors finished the week with generally positive performance in many sectors through a very erratic market week. China large cap (FXI etf) , had another week of 'performance+', with a +15.6 YTD; as well as DXJ etf(Japan large cap), which is now +23.9 YTD. Bonds in many sectors ended the total week performance with mixed gains. Bond funds ranged from +.09% to a +.73%, with the ultra short term being the lowest positive (as expected) and the very long term being the best sectors. See the 'graphic' link at the beginning of this write for details of weekly returns.
NEW: 1 week 'heat map' by sectors. This is an interactive graphic. You may hover the computer pointer over the various blocks to view portions of sectors and/or stocks within those sectors. NOTE: to the left of the graphic, one may change the 1 week performance drop down menu to another time frame. Another example: at the left edge of the graphic, select exchange traded funds and then 1 week or a time period of your choice.
Remain curious,
Catch

May 5 & 11 Episodes:

Teresa Ghilarducci argues that working longer is not the solution to the retirement crisis. She explains why not and what is.

PIMCO’S Group Chief Investment Officer Dan Ivascyn also runs the world’s largest actively managed bond fund, PIMCO Income. He says bond returns are the most attractive they have been in years and even rival stocks.

The JEPI fund managers also run JHEQX which has an inception date of 12/13/2013.
These two funds are not clones.
JEPI is "designed to provide current income while maintaining prospects for capital appreciation."
JHEQX is "designed to provide capital appreciation through a diversified equity portfolio,
while hedging overall market exposure."
With that said, here's a Portfolio Visualizer Backtest for JHEQX, RLBGX, VWENX, and VFIAX.
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=5276rWmbK9uD5mgRq56Fhw

“'While many investment strategies have lagged the tech-heavy S&P 500 and Mag 7 stocks over the past year,
high dividend growth and high free cash flow has kept up,' Chris Senyek, chief investment strategist
with Wolfe Research, wrote in the report."
“'Dividend investing is an attractive long-term structural investment strategy, it’s tried and true,' Ben Kirby,
co-head of investments of Thornburg, wrote in an email to Barron’s. 'It tends to generate attractive returns and,
in many cases, better returns to the overall market, usually with less volatility.'”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/it-s-a-good-time-to-look-at-apple-and-other-growth-stocks-that-pay-dividends/ar-BB1lUCXX

Charlie Bilello customarily posted The Week In Charts videos to his own YouTube channel.
https://www.youtube.com/@charlie_bilello/videos
The three most recent The Week In Charts videos were posted only to his employer's YouTube channel.
https://www.youtube.com/@creativeplanning/videos
Now with that out of the way, let's proceed...
The Week in Charts (05/10/24)
The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
00:00 Intro
01:03 Topics
02:19 "Don't Let Them Sell You a Bond Fund"
13:50 Saving Social Security
26:08 Is the Consumer Finally Pulling Back?
34:51 Falling Fertility Rates
43:08 Buy In May and Stay
45:53 Welcome to the Casino
49:01 Happy Workers
Video

@Derf
We will shop insurance again in 2025, as we have seen how switching companies (quality) for the same coverage every several years may provide a price advantage. I will note, as has been written by others here; is for the consideration of quality and proper service, if and when needed. A few neighbors in the past 2 years have had minor auto damage claims with the company we now use, and a representative was at their home the next day to take a few pics of the vehicle and fill the paperwork for a most timely process of repairs needed. The neighbors were quite pleased.
A snippet: 'How much an umbrella policy costs depends on many variables. Many of the factors that affect your home insurance and auto insurance costs may affect the cost of your umbrella policy. These could include location, the features in your home, the types of cars you drive and your claims history. The underwriting criteria for an umbrella policy can be more restrictive than an auto or home policy. Those with occupations deemed too risky or who have had liability claims in the past may not qualify for coverage.'
A longer write regarding an umbrella policy from Bankrate.com.

Utes today. Maybe it's just sector rotation after all.
I find it easier for me to already be there when things do rotate.

Indeed. A month or so ago I sold UTG and went into HTD…a John Hancock CEF holding both utilities plus preferred shares. I also hold a similar John Hancock fund, PTD. Both utilities and preferreds will benefit with moderation of rates. I consider it as fixed income with a kicker.

@hank Our umbrella follows the payment period for our home/auto; which is an 'annual' renewal. I can't provide a percentage number right now; but we do receive a percent discount for paying an annual lump renewal. As I recall, the options are pay monthly, quarterly, semi-annual and annual. 'Course if one can make better money with a MMKT, it might even be a deal to pay monthly and keep what will be owed in the future/until needed in a 5% MMKT. Just a thought, as one would have to do the math.

@Fred495. Yes I have looked at PRCFX. yes, VWIAX has had a disappointing most recent three year but lack of tech and longish duration FI explain that. Part of my search is for one fund my widow will be able to live with. Simplicity. But for me I want to dial up or down the FI portion myself. So I dither the months away with tons of 5% CD’s and 5% mm. My short terms goals are limited (happily) and longer term it’s the portfolio with the fewest parts and lower SD.

Utes today. Maybe it's just sector rotation after all.
I find it easier for me to already be there when things do rotate.

Right there with ya guys!. Agent called today. App is in the mail. About $80 a year . I’d never heard of one either. But the world was a much different place back when I first took out homeowners insurance in 1977.
Geez, you learn a lot here!
Edit 5/13/24 / I received the written application. I must not have understood the agent over the phone. Here’s the ditty:
- 1 Mil Umbrella
- Annual cost $138
- Cost to increase homeowner liability coverage: $60 per year
- Total additional annual cost to me: $198 annually
- Likely I’m receiving a discount for having home and 2 vehicles with same insurer
- There were 18 “yes / no” questions on the app - Things like “Do you have any pets?” and “Have you ever been party to a lawsuit?” They seemed especially interested in any powered recreational vehicles. I have none. (We pedal)

Looking at the portfolio data, a couple of top line figures stand out. (Yogi also commented on much of this; he posted as I was composing.)
M* reports that FMSDX has 45% of its assets in its top ten holdings, but that's misleading. Its top 4 holdings, at 11%, 8.5%, 8.5%, and 8% are Treasuries. Disregarding that, its portfolio doesn't look nearly so concentrated (i.e. closer to VWIAX's 12% of assets in top 10 holding).
Portfolio composition is a different story. While both funds are classified as moderately conservative (meaning similar stock/bond ratios), the Fidelity fund is noticeably more aggressive - as one might infer from its volatility.
Fidelity says that its fund is 41.5% in equities with the rest (excluding 1.35% cash/other) in bonds. Vanguard says its fund is 37.12% in equities with the rest (excluding 1.12% short term reserves) in bonds. Superficially similar, but ...
https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/composition/31638R717
https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/mutual-funds/profile/vwiax#portfolio-composition
Vanguard says that all of its bonds are investment grade (albeit 17% Baa), while Fidelity reports that nearly a third of its bonds are junk bonds. Those typically behave more like equities. In this sense, the Fidelity fund begins to look more like a moderate allocation fund. In fact, M* classified the fund this way in 2021 and 2022.
Wellesley is a traditional hybrid fund, with a large cap value-leaning equity portfolio. FMSDX currently has more of a large blend orientation, though it tends to skew more toward mid caps (even now it is right on the mid/large boundary).
All of these differences help to understand the overall performance differences you're seeing. They're both fine funds and which one you pick would seem to depend on the type of fund you want.

@ Fred495. Pondering the same question. I think you nailed the key differences. My research has shown that the Fidelity product has a broader mandate and may move into areas that might not be what you are looking for. Perhaps greater returns but a bumpier ride. The Wellington management team is deep and experienced,,, what you see is what you get.

Talking about trying to muddy the waters. I forgot about another moderately conservative allocation fund, PRCFX (T. Rowe Price Cap Apprec and Income), that is brand new but is run by the excellent and experienced manager of PRWCX.
Have you considered this fund in your deliberations?