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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Automobile Cost of Ownership
    "According to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the total cost to own and operate an automobile averaged a frightening $12,296 in 2024, roughly 30% higher than a decade ago. Driving the numbers are new-vehicle prices, now averaging $48,883, according to Cox Automotive’s latest data. With middle-income buyers priced out of new cars, demand for used cars has strengthened, now averaging around $25,500."
    "Among the major stressors: car insurance. Lexis-Nexis Risk Solutions’ annual report found average insurance costs rose 10% in 2024, after soaring 15% in 2023. Full-coverage policies now average $2,680 annually, up 12% from June 2024, says Bankrate."
    The cost to fix damaged cars has increased by 28% since 2021.
    Seemingly minor damage to vehicles equipped with Advanced Driver-Assist Systems (ADAS)
    can be extremely expensive to repair. Vehicles sometimes need to be "totaled."
    New cars include more plastics which degrade under daily heat extremes.
    Wet timing belts erode over time—this can contaminate/kill the engine.
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/high-costs-have-ended-america-s-love-affair-with-cars/ar-AA1H7OBD
  • FOMC Statement
    For me a salad is a complete meal - topped with seafood, grilled chicken or occasionally cheese. So it’s a really big platter. Sometimes stores mark lettuce down substantially (more than 50%) when it nears its expiration date. I like deals like that. Hasn’t killed me yet. I’ll confess I picked up a 3-pack of fresh Romaine today that was on sale for only $3.00. Great bargain. So prices vary.
    Just wondering if the apprehension of / fear tactics toward migrants is affecting the labor supply in the ag produce industry and leading to higher prices?
    ”Maybe we can put all of the indebted students to work picking blackberries, spinach, and romaine.” - Don’t say that too loudly or someone might seize upon the idea.
  • The PCE(personal consumption expenditures) price index + Atlanta's Fed Q2 estimated GDP
    I started this thread to show good numbers now; that's about it. I wanted to see if anyone could acknowledge it. Nope, and as expected.
    I dismiss economists, and that's not a secret. They really shot in the dark, many times were wrong about the future, and never made me money.
    You ask 10 economists what will happen in 6-12 months and what to do about it, and you get many answers.
    The economy does not have a high correlation to markets. I want to make money in any market currently, not in the future, and that's why I only look at stuff lately.
    As expected, Powell admitted that he is not going to cut rates now because he is afraid to make a mistake, while he has been telling us for months that the Fed decisions are made based on the data. Listening to generic economists is a waste of time. I listen to the Fed very carefully because I invest in bond funds, and rates are important.
    Instead of Sonders read Mnuchin
    Mnuchin actually made real economic decisions.
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/mnuchin-expects-fed-to-cut-rates-by-75-100-bps-over-the-next-year/ar-AA1HkGVq
    "In an interview with CNBC, Mnuchin expressed agreement with criticisms of the Fed’s pace in adjusting rates, stating that “the market isn’t waiting for the fed to act” and has already priced in these anticipated cuts.
    Mnuchin dismissed concerns that tariffs would drive inflation, noting that “we’ve collected significant tariff revenue without it having an impact on inflation.”
    He also expressed optimism about upcoming trade negotiations, suggesting that President Donald Trump may announce several new trade deals soon or extend the July deadline if negotiations are progressing well.
    On international trade policy, Mnuchin explained that reciprocal tariffs were “designed to get people to the negotiation table” to ensure “fair and reciprocal trade.” He said that while progress has been made with China, “there’s still a lot of work left to do with China and others,” including India and Japan, but anticipated these negotiations would reach the “finish line” with agreements on “major concepts” and tariff rates.
    On domestic economic policy, Mnuchin emphasized the importance of passing legislation to extend “the Trump tax cuts” and address other market concerns.
    “Economic growth helps a lot,” he stated regarding deficit reduction, adding that “the difference between 2-3% shrinks the deficits a lot,” while cautioning that without sufficient growth, “we’re going to have to look at continued cutting of government spending.”
    What should you do?
    Dismiss all economists; that's what I do.
  • Didn’t see today’s UP market coming!
    Don't feel bad.
    The following commentary is from Jeff DeMaso's IVA Weekly Brief published June 25.
    "I’m repeating myself here—but it bears repeating: you can’t profitably trade the headlines."
    "If you were trying to profit from trading energy stocks in June, you needed to act before the headlines.
    You had to buy before the U.S State Department withdrew personnel from the region or Israel launched
    its first missile at Tehran. And you had to sell last Friday, anticipating that U.S. bunker-buster strikes
    on Iran’s uranium enrichment sites would lead to de-escalation."

    "In fact, if you bought Energy Index after the missiles started flying, you’ve actually lost money on the trade! Making that trade even more painful: Total Stock Market Index is up 2.1% since Israel’s first strike."
    "Of course, the conflict isn’t over, and the energy stocks could deliver gains from here.
    But this is just another case study in how hard—nearly impossible—it is to trade the headlines and come out ahead."

    https://www.independentvanguardadviser.com/weekly-brief-from-middle-east-tensions-to-vanguards-big-reorg
  • Schwab Transaction Fee Mutual Funds
    It got harder for me to get the fees waived.
    Months ago I started using the automatic investment.
    Suppose I like Pimix which I don't.
    I buy $20. Because it's a very small purchase, there is no fee.
    On the same day at night (must be prior to 12 midnight to make it the next day) I select automatic investment and enroll to buy PIMIX the next day on a monthly basis for $866K(limit is up to a million). The fee is just $10.
    The next day the system creates a new trade. Just remember to cancel.
    Since I'm a trader. I have 3-5 funds on my mind and why I invest $20 in each when I want to trade in the future.
    BTW, Fidelity also have a cheaper auto investment at $5, but it will execute 2, maybe 3 days later. No thanks, I want the next day.
    Why VG and D&C funds I tried have no fee?
    I don't have an idea.
    When I say no confusion, I mean that I always know what the fees are.
  • Didn’t see today’s UP market coming!
    for those in risk off/wealth preservation mode, mkt indicators seem peaking.
    thus, am trimming gains+losses in equity where i can, limits are getting bids.
    found an unusual amount of agreement from various macro sources. (stonex, zeihan, jpm, poskar, klement,ferguson)
    convergence of events june-july :
    - as q2 positive earnings reported, look for unusual amount of weak\no earnings forecasts for q3 period
    - capex going below trend, but ignore overcapacity signal from buildouts maturing
    - trump tariff baseline at 10% is still quadruple of 2024. ~50% sentiment that trump will not taco >10% for most, china remains highest.
    - first sign of shelf shortages during china shipping pause in spring
    - expected senate vote on budget bill adding $3t debt
    (again, oil shock and war cost excluded)
    at least 2 sources indicated ~15% mkt decline would be select buying opportunity. meh.
  • The PCE(personal consumption expenditures) price index + Atlanta's Fed Q2 estimated GDP
    "No way that Trump brought down inflation in only 5 months with "America First" policies. "
    Yes way. If the numbers went the opposite way, you would scream it's all Trump's fault. That was easy :-).
  • Schwab Transaction Fee Mutual Funds
    I could be wrong, but it seems to me that FD1000 said at one time he had a (fee) pass at Schwab. That's off the top of by head, so.......
    Or you could be spot on ...
    For me.
    ... 4. Here come the biggest advantage for Schwab. I trade only mutual funds and preferably Inst shares. Schwab waves the $49.95 fee while at Fidelity I hardly ever got that. 4 switches annually for 5 accounts is a $1000.
    That post was in June 2024.
    In that same 2024 thread, another post:
    All I'm going to say is that Schwab reps have been waiving my I share fees for over 7 years. I'm not going to tell you how. It's not a policy you will find anywhere, just as they will match other brokers offers for cash rewards when you transfer money.
    I ask for the moon and get a lot.
    Yet this (fee) pass doesn't seem apply to all $49.95 TF Inst shares:
    When I tried PIMIX, I see a fee of $49.95.
    No confusion again.

    I'm not so sure about that "no confusion" part.
    As to how to get fee waivers at Schwab, other posters have provided information. In that same thread:
    I got the fee waived when I told my rep that I wanted to move VTMFX over from Vanguard but would not because of the fee. He waived it
    More recently (about a year ago) I believe I posted something about Schwab being interested in getting investors who were leaving Vanguard (VG had just added more fees). They would consider waiving TFs on Vanguard funds and perhaps a few other fund families if an investor brought over enough money. The rep said that Schwab didn't want the TF to be an impediment to moving assets.
    I didn't ask for the moon. But I did open the door by asking simply what can you do for me if I bring in these assets?
    FD specifically mentioned getting VG NTF. So that's one family where Schwab is waiving FD's fees. Given that, the description FD gave above about how to see what one's personalized TFs looks correct. The fees are personalized; YMMV.
  • Schwab Transaction Fee Mutual Funds
    When I looked at VWINX=Vanguard Wellesley at Schwab, the Schwab site says up to $74.95
    I entered a buy for $10K for VWINX. The transaction says zero. Same for DODGX.
    I haven't used VG or D&C for decades. I can't remember one fund I was interested in the last 20 years that I paid $74.95.

    On the Schwab “Enter Order” page, there are two options under Transaction fee:
    Deduct fee from total
    Add fee to total
    The next “Verify Order” page shows a Transaction Fee of $0.00 but under the fund description next to Transaction Fee there is a “Yes”.
    When you click on “Place Order” the “Order Received" page properly accounts for the transaction fee.
    It’s just a poor implementation as the exact TF should be disclosed on the Verify Order page.
    When I click on info only at the bottom it's clear. It says
    . The transaction fee for this buy order is $ 0.00.
    Then I placed the order. The total is only $10K.
    Remember, I selected to add fee to the total, but there is no fee. BTW, I don't have any shares in VWINX.
    Bottom line there is no fee for me. I don't see any confusion.
    When I tried PIMIX, I see a fee of $49.95.
    No confusion again.
  • FOMC Statement
    Hi @gman57 If more workers don't show for work in the agri business, one won't only have higher prices; but perhaps 'nothing' for some items in the produce section.
  • FOMC Statement
    @gman57 -
    Thanks for the examples you cited. No argument. Oil has been on a roller coaster the past couple weeks due to the Mid-East turmoil. Climbed to over $80 in the past week or so, but fell sharply back down to $63 today. That’s close to where it’s been running for several months. Hopefully, those gas prices will go back down.
    What T’s me off is when enough fresh Romaine lettuce for a large salad costs $5 or $7 at the grocery store - just the lettuce! . Do not understand that at all. I usually pass on it.
  • FOMC Statement
    +1
    But the Plymouth Fury was a very fine auto for the day. Held the road real well at 80-85 MPH.
    Link to new cars under $25,000 today. The Toyota Corolla is one mentioned. I’ve driven them. In no way, shape or form is a Corolla the equivalent of a full sized ‘70 Plymouth.
    Cost of different items in 1970
  • FOMC Statement
    Inflation is among us!! I don't know about you but everything I buy on Amazon is 1 or 2 bucks more even stuff I just bought like 6 months ago. Example today: roach stuff $7.99 in Nov 24, now $9.79 Gas used to be $2.89 all over the place, now it's all $3:09 even with oil prices lower. Summer increase? Just because they are saying inflation is down, I'm not buying it. Can't wait to see what my insurance premiums will be. They all renew in July. Low inflation... I call BS... are they fudging the numbers?
    Glad somebody else is seeing what I am seeing. The official inflation numbers seem to be based on a different reality.
    Having trouble trusting the information provided.
  • FOMC Statement
    Isn’t that why we invest? To keep up with inflation? My first new car, a ‘70 full sized Plymouth Fury in 1970 cost $2,800. My second new car, a beautiful ‘73 Mercury Montego in ‘73 cost $3,200. I bought a beautiful new F100 pickup in ‘82 for $8,000. A slightly larger new F150 in ‘90 cost a bit over $11,000. In 2005 I bought a similar sized GMC Sierra for just under $20,000. In 2018 a new Honda Accord cost me $26,000, and in 2024 I paid nearly $40,000 for a new Toyota Camry. From 1970 to 2024 the cost of a brand new vehicle for me went from $2,800 to nearly $40,000.
    OK - you can knock a few K off the last one. It has AWD. None of the others did. And knock another few K off to compensate for the latest safety and driver comfort items on cars today compared to 1970. However, cars in 1970 were designed to get you from point A to point B just as they are today. And the ride might have been a bit better in those days before weight was reduced. And even in 1970 with proper maintenance a car would go 100,000 miles or more. For some perspective, a good friend recently related that his latest new vehicle, a ‘24 Chevy pickup, cost him around $60,000. I haven’t bought a new truck in recent years, so thought that worth noting.
    You can do the same thing with houses, hamburgers, paper towels or whatever. As Gomer Pyle would say: “Surprise!” - Paper currencies over time lose value. Reason we invest.
  • Vanguard: Important information about your [IRA] checkwriting service
    The conversions and/or QCD's do not count towards the total RMD amount
    Fidelity: "QCDs can be counted toward satisfying your required minimum distributions (RMDs) for the year, as long as certain rules are met."
    https://www.fidelity.com/retirement-ira/required-minimum-distributions-qcds
    Roth conversions ( a taxable event ) can be done at any time. ... The caveat is that, if required, the full RMD amount ( taxable ) must still be taken ( sometime ) during the applicable tax year.
    I used to think so also. But the IRS is clear on this point. Money withdrawn from an IRA before the annual RMD is met is ineligible to be put back into any IRA (whether traditional or Roth). The RMD must come first.
    Ed Slott (site): " All IRA RMDs Must Be Satisfied Prior to Doing a Roth Conversion. ... If a person has multiple IRAs, even if they are held at different custodians, the total aggregated IRA required minimum distribution (RMD) must be withdrawn before any Roth IRA conversion (or 60-day rollover) can be completed. "
    https://irahelp.com/slottreport/new-rule-all-ira-rmds-must-be-satisfied-prior-to-doing-a-roth-conversion/
    The RMD is determined based on the COB December 31st total of *all* your Traditional/Rollover IRA's.
    Usually but not always. For example, if you're in the process of doing a 60 day rollover at the end of the year (pulling money out of your IRA on Dec 29th and rolling it back in on Jan 3rd), you have to add back that money to the COB Dec 31st balances in calculating your RMD.
    IRS Pub 590-B: "Outstanding rollovers. The IRA account balance is adjusted by outstanding rollovers that aren't in any account at the end of the preceding year."
    https://www.irs.gov/publications/p590b#en_US_2024_publink100090063
    On the other hand, 401's must be RMD'd individually/seperately
    Though you can aggregate 403(b) withdrawals for RMDs.
    https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/rmd-comparison-chart-iras-vs-defined-contribution-plans
  • prwcx expands # 'co-managers'
    Top Executives
    Name Title Since Until
    David R. Giroux Vice President 2006 Now
    Jeffrey W. Arricale Deputy Director 2006 2007
    Stephen W. Boesel Managing Director and portfolio manager 2001 2006
    Richard P. Howard Senior Vice President 1989 2001
    Richard H. Fontaine Vice President, Portfolio Manager 1986 1989
    https://www.investing.com/funds/t.-rowe-price-capital-appreciation-company-profile
    A superstar at the helm of T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation fund in the late 1980's, Mr. Fontaine anticipated the 1987 market crash and bought aggressively afterward, delivering average annual returns of nearly 40 percent.
    https://www.nytimes.com/1996/05/19/business/mutual-funds-a-bear-on-stocks-who-s-outrunning-the-bulls.html
    Side note: T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation commenced operations on June 30, 1986. It was legally created as T. Rowe Price Capital Advantage Fund on May 9, 1986 and changed to its current name on June 29, 1986.
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/793347/0000793347-94-000004.txt
  • prwcx expands # 'co-managers'
    Thanks@Observant1.
    The first manager was highly regarded and ran the fund a long time. I’ll guess 15+ years. Very low-key individual. There was much worry among investors when he retired. My thoughts are that it was a much different fund in the early days (even more conservative then today) - but to speculate further would be unwise. Larger highly successful PRFDX was more talked about in the press and touted by “authorities” back then under famed manager Brian Rogers .
  • Schwab Transaction Fee Mutual Funds
    When I looked at VWINX=Vanguard Wellesley at Schwab, the Schwab site says up to $74.95
    I entered a buy for $10K for VWINX. The transaction says zero. Same for DODGX.
    I haven't used VG or D&C for decades. I can't remember one fund I was interested in the last 20 years that I paid $74.95.
    On the Schwab “Enter Order” page, there are two options under Transaction fee:
    Deduct fee from total
    Add fee to total
    The next “Verify Order” page shows a Transaction Fee of $0.00 but under the fund description next to Transaction Fee there is a “Yes”.
    When you click on “Place Order” the “Order Received" page properly accounts for the transaction fee.
    It’s just a poor implementation as the exact TF should be disclosed on the Verify Order page.
  • prwcx expands # 'co-managers'
    I thought it would be entertaining and potentially instructive to go over the list of talented managers who have run PRWCX since inception. While none attained the notoriety of Giroux, all excelled. If memory is correct Giroux came in about 15 years ago along with a co-manager of equal status. That lasted only a year or two. ISTM the fella’s name was Jeff Arackle or something similar. It later came out he had some serious personal issues (financial ?) but I can’t recall the nature of such.
    I even resorted to Bing’s AI asking about the history of managers for this fund. All AI could provide is this:
    Publicly available sources do not list any named individual managers prior to David Giroux (2006). Earlier reports consistently highlight Giroux as the first lead manager since founding. T. Rowe Price has not disclosed earlier stewardship or predecessor managers in public filings or press materials.”
    Surely AI isn’t providing a very intelligent answer! I’d also love to know how much the fund has grown in AUM under Giroux? I’d guess it’s doubled since he became co-manager - perhaps even adjusting for asset growth..