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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Morningstar X-Ray and Library Edition
    If I want to compare the holdings of funds A and B, I use a test M* Portfolio of 50% A + 50% B for M* X-Ray (Regular or Instant) to see the overlap.
  • Tough Day in Bond Land
    Part of the curve is inverted. The 5 year Treasury is yielding more than the 10 year. Just noticed this evening. Probably been evident for a while.
    I don’t know of any sure fire remedies for investors. I’m pretty much staying the course. But did trim fixed income exposure from 30 to 25% within past month. Of course, many of my alternative & allocation funds also hold fixed income - so the real % is higher. I’m eager to see if D&C can turn the losses in DODIX around before year end. This is not a fund that’s accustomed to negative returns. Let’s not forget some of these funds pay interest quarterly and that will lessen some of the hit.
    CVSIX is off 1.63% YTD. That’s probably the “best” performer of any of my fixed invome funds this year.
    My most interesting “bond” fund is GLDB. Off 3% YTD. Chart resembles a pogo-stick as it’s very erratic. New fund. Only $3 M AUM. They appear to hold longer dated corporates / investment grade bonds and somehow back them with gold bullion. The idea is that if the dollar slides in value the bonds will hold their value better. The effect seems to be that on any given day you get about 2/3 the movement in gold’s price and about 1/3 the movement in 10-15 year corporate bonds. It kicks out a little interest every month. Today the fund was up 1% pretty much in line with gold mining stocks. My hold on this fund is small - only about 2-3% of portfolio. BTW: I don’t count this one as fixed income - too weird. It is part of my 10% spec position which is designed to hedge against steep equity losses.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Congratulation on your pick! Unless someone who can offer higher bid than Warren Buffet, Y will be part of Berkshire Hathaway after 25 days. He is known not to out-bid other competitors. Also he is buying the entire company, not just taking a major stake in the company as he did with Occidental. WB is over 90 years old and still maintain his edge.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    “there’s what 25 days to see if Allegheny receives a better offer? You could always throw that 5% in a high flier like BRK.B ?”
    Ummm … Good point. I’m not familiar with the legalities here. Is Berkshire locked in to the offer for 25 days? I’d have to guess that’s a very generous offer. Will be surprised if anyone tops it. FWIW: I sold at $846 having put in a limit offer before open. Y closed at $844.60. So there was a slight drift down during the day.
    Rocked my boat seeing it up 25% in the pre market hours. I’m very old and very conservative. Would have settled for 25% over 2 or 3 years. Already have 2 stocks in the growth sleeve. Having this one in the more conservative “alternative” sleeve was a real reach in the first place.
    Below is a link to the Barron’s article that whetted my appetite last November. I tracked and studied the company for over 3 months before deciding to take a bite. Averaged in during February / March while it was falling. Bottomed at $588 March 8. Currently $844.60
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/buy-alleghany-stock-berkshire-hathaway-pick-51636151493
    But thanks for the thoughts.
    BTW - I think Barron’s is underappreciated.
  • Tough Day in Bond Land
    Many core bond funds are down 4-5%. Short duration bonds loss less. Nevertheless, the 2.5 month loss is much less than those of stock fund loss in a single day. We put some $ into I bond since last year. Unfortunately, it is limited to $10K per person, plus $5k from your tax refund (assuming you get a refund that year).
  • Harbor Strategic Growth Fund is to be reorganized
    @yogibearbull, What is Harbor trying to accomplish? Just selling AUM? Admin shares could have been converted without going through an asset transfer Reorganization.
    If the acquiring fund does not retain the NAV price of the acquired fund on the date of the Reorganization (i.e., stock split), a shareholder could be disadvantaged because OEFs are only required to price in two decimals. For example, a shareholder's daily experience of the NAV changes of a $30 NAV fund is not the same as three shares at $10 each of the same fund. The lower NAV gives a lumpy (non-continuous) price experience. I paid attention to this only after I bought a fund with a NAV in the $5 range.
  • 2022’s Most & Least Federally Dependent States
    The fraud in the Covid relief is shameful, but it is misguided to assume that some billions fraudulently misappropriated in $5.1 trillion worth of two relief--2020 and 2021--packages indicate some sort of failure in policy:
    https://cbpp.org/research/poverty-and-inequality/robust-covid-relief-achieved-historic-gains-against-poverty-and
    When COVID-19 began to rapidly spread across the United States in March 2020, the economy quickly shed more than 20 million jobs. Amid intense fear and hardship, federal policymakers responded, enacting five relief bills in 2020 that provided an estimated $3.3 trillion of relief and the American Rescue Plan in 2021, which added another $1.8 trillion. This robust policy response helped make the COVID-19 recession the shortest on record and helped fuel an economic recovery that has brought the unemployment rate, which peaked at 14.8 percent in April 2020, down to 4.0 percent. One measure of annual poverty declined by the most on record in 2020, in data back to 1967, and the number of uninsured people remained stable, rather than rising as typically happens with large-scale job loss. Various data indicate that in 2021, relief measures reduced poverty, helped people access health coverage, and reduced hardships like inability to afford food or meet other basic needs.
    These positive results contrast with the Great Recession of 2007-2009, when the federal response was large compared to measures taken in other post-World War II recessions but less than one-third as large as the fiscal policy measures adopted in 2020-2021, when measured as a share of the economy. While decried by some at the time as too large, the relief measures enacted during the Great Recession were undersized and ended too soon. As a result, the economy remained weak for longer than was necessary — and families suffered avoidable hardship. Two years after the Great Recession began, unemployment was still 9.9 percent and food insecurity remained one-third above its pre-recession level. While some of that difference stems from differences in the trigger to the downturn, some is clearly due to the strength of the policy response.
    What I don't like is states and politicians claiming they don't need federal assistance and shouldn't have to pay taxes while taking loads of federal assistance.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @Hank … there’s what 25 days to see if Allegheny receives a better offer? You could always throw that 5% in a high flier like BRK.B ?
    Related to the threads topic but not to my post to @Hank above… purchased a few thousand worth of QQQ at $348 ish for a 16 year old relative. It’s down so much there’s nowhere to go but…?
  • Fidelity liquidates several of its Flex Funds
    It looks like Fidelity is dropping all Flex funds below $150M AUM except for mid and small cap Flex funds, and except for its Flex Freedom Blend Target Date funds. Those have just $1M or less each in AUM. But since they're comprised of Fidelity Series funds, not Flex funds, I guess it's no big deal to keep them around.
    This raises a question: Why does Fidelity have two sets of zero cost funds, Series and Flex? There is some overlap but a fair amount of difference in the types of funds offered.
    An example of superficial overlap is FSIPX and FBUIX. The latter is a Flex fund that's being liquidated. Names are identical except the latter substitutes Flex for Series. But they track different inflation protected indexes and have significantly different performance.
  • Short and distort - the inverse of pump and dump
    I try to avoid citing Wiki and Investopedia. On the rare occasions I do cite Investopedia, it is as a shorthand for something I might write, i.e. it encapsulates a point I'm conveying. I do not present these sites are authoritative.
    As you're aware, Investopedia does not have the best editing - its Deferred Annuity page neither describes SPDAs nor cites the Investopedia Single Premium Deferred Annuity page. That's not an isolated case.
    Since you brought up SeekingAlpha again, we can take a look at the italicized passage there that you referenced:
    Naked short selling is not legal. ... [N]aked shorting involves the selling of shares that do not exist, or have not been borrowed. ... Put simply, if shares are not available to "cover" a short sale, the short position is said to be naked.
    I'll get to "do not exist" branch later. There's an interesting twist on it. First I'll look at the "have not been borrowed" branch.
    >> One might not be able to deliver shares that had already been located. That's different from being unable to locate shares.
    Surely there is if not a cite for this an example from experience, or case law?
    What I wrote follows the "have not borrowed" branch from Seeking Alpha. Real shares located but not borrowed at trade time T that are unavailable to "cover", i.e. become unavailable at cover- (delivery-) time T+2. Seeking Alpha says that, put simply, this constitutes a naked short, and naked shorts are not legal. Full stop.
    You asked how it could happen. Suppose, just suppose, Seeking Alpha is wrong - that such situations are not just legal but common. Perhaps then a place to look for a description of how these trades play out would not be in the criminal code or case law, but at a brokerage that caters to traders. Sure enough:
    Prior to executing the short sale, the broker must make a good faith determination that shares will likely be available to borrow when needed and this is accomplished by verifying their current availability. Note that, absent a pre-borrow arrangement, there is no assurance that shares available to borrow on the date of trade will remain available to borrow 2 days later
    https://ibkr.info/node/845 (Interactive Brokers)
    One may ask, why doesn't the short seller borrow the stock immediately when it is located? That's not required by law, and it's expensive. The meter is running each day that the stock is borrowed.
    I did say that there was an interesting twist on all these sites blithely declaring that naked shorting is always illegal. Remember phantom shares? Those markers, that ersatz stock? No voting rights (they don't exist on the company's books, just on the brokers'), so they can't be real shares.
    Say a short seller borrows some of those phantom shares to deliver. Good faith, no intent to defraud and all that, but the seller never located real shares and never delivered them. Too bad. Lock'em up.
    I can just hear the prosecutor: Ladies and gentlemen of the jury, pay no intention to the instructions from the judge that I have to prove intent to defraud, that I have to prove every element of the crime. We all know what fraud is, right? The defendant cheated this poor sucker investor out of cold, hard cash, and for what? A cheap knockoff. There's nothing more that needs to be said.
  • Powell Says Fed Is Ready to Raise Rates Faster If Needed
    This explains the movement in the treasury market today. Powell also suggested the Fed may decide to aggressively increase interest rates as the year progresses.
    Raise Rates Faster
  • Fidelity liquidates several of its Flex Funds
    Fido Fex funds are/were 0 ER funds available to advisory accounts and other special Fido programs (Robo Fido Go, other Fido funds). This closure doesn't affect Fido retail customers.
    An example is/was Fido Flex LC Growth FLCLX,
    https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/summary/316389352
    http://financials.morningstar.com/fund/purchase-info.html?t=FLCLX&region=usa&culture=en-US
  • Harbor Strategic Growth Fund is to be reorganized
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/793769/000119312522079147/d310611d497.htm
    497 1 d310611d497.htm HARBOR STRATEGIC GROWTH FUND SAI SUPPLEMENT
    111 South Wacker Drive, 34th Floor
    Chicago, IL 60606-4302
    harborcapital.com
    Supplement to Statement of Additional Information dated March 1, 2022
    March 18, 2022
    On March 15, 2022, the Board of Trustees of Harbor Funds approved the reorganization of the Harbor Strategic Growth Fund (the “Fund”) into the Mar Vista Strategic Growth Fund (the “Acquiring Fund”), a newly created series of Manager Directed Portfolios. The Acquiring Fund will have the same investment objective as the Fund and substantially similar principal investment strategies and limitations. Mar Vista Investment Partners, LLC, the Funds’ subadviser, will continue to act as subadviser to the Fund until the closing of the reorganization and will serve as the investment adviser to the Acquiring Fund.
    The reorganization will allow Fund shareholders to retain access to the Fund’s investment strategy and maintain continuity of portfolio management. Under the terms of the agreement and plan of reorganization approved by the Board of Trustees, the Fund will transfer all of its assets and known liabilities to the Acquiring Fund in exchange for shares of the Acquiring Fund. Institutional Class, Investor Class and Retirement Class shareholders of the Fund will receive shares of equivalent share classes of the Acquiring Fund. Administrative Class shares of the Fund will be converted to Institutional Class shares of the Fund at the time of or shortly prior to the closing of the reorganization. Administrative Class shareholders will receive Institutional Class shares of the Acquiring Fund. The reorganization will not affect the value of your account in the Fund at the time of the reorganization. The reorganization is expected to be treated as a tax-free reorganization for U.S. federal tax purposes.
    A shareholder meeting for the purpose of voting on the agreement and plan of reorganization is scheduled to be held in June 2022. Assuming shareholders approve the reorganization, the closing of the reorganization is expected to occur in July 2022. Shareholders of record will receive a prospectus/proxy statement prior to the meeting, which will provide further details about the Acquiring Fund, the meeting and the reorganization.
    Investors Should Retain This Supplement For Future Reference
    S0322A.SAI.HF
    Back in 2016, Mar Vista Strategic Growth Fund was reorganized into Harbor Strategic Growth Fund.
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1359057/000089418916013517/marvista_497e.htm
  • deferred income annuity for ltc
    Some here may be with TIAA. This link provides current annuitization payouts from TIAA plans; others interested in SPIA may use this for comparison. In general, annuitization from group plans at work may be more favorable than what may be possible from individual commercial quotes.
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/142/tiaa-traditional-rates-monthly?page=2&scrollTo=525
  • OIL
    fyi.....OP on 3/15/22 when WTI price was $96.44. Now $111.
    Regarding Nat Gas... important to remember the extreme shortages this past winter. Prices next Fall might get interesting going into 2023 winter.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Sold all of my Y (Allegheny) at market open today after it popped 25% this morning on news Warren Buffett is buying it. Had held it about 6 weeks. Leaves a 5% hole in my portfolio. Wracking my brain trying to decide how to reposition that $$. Being bearish a long while it’s not easy finding risk assets I’m comfortable owning.
  • deferred income annuity for ltc
    There's no requirement that an you annuitize the entire value of your annuity. And even if your particular annuity contract requires that, so long as you haven't annuitized you can do a 1035 (tax free) exchange in parts - transfer some value to one annuity and the remaining annuity to another.
    Lots of ways of generating just the income you need. The general advice is to annuitize enough to meet essential expenses, not more. If needed, you should be able to withdraw money that has not been annuitized, albeit with ordinary income taxes assessed.
    If you've got a fixed annuity, even pre-annuitization, you're at the mercy of the insurer. Fixed annuity includes index-linked annuities - anything that is a general obligation of the company.
    IMHO it's less important how sound your VA annuity provider is - those assets are segregated. But for fixed annuities or annuities that you have annuitized (does that sound redundant?), soundness is paramount.
  • Short and distort - the inverse of pump and dump
    >> This is going off into never never land with no sources.
    Again, https://www.natlawreview.com/article/sec-brings-naked-short-selling-case contains the point, with a 'may', which I maybe should have included. Would that have really made all the difference? I figured I already had enough other sources included already (and are you denying the point about excess, aka phantom, shares?), but the tone change from someone now officially in charge of content here will be good for me to keep in mind. Neverland, indeed.
    Here is a somewhat dated ref, so you could claim it is no longer relevant. And anyway, maybe it was all simply multiple lending and shorting.
    https://www.euromoney.com/article/b1320xkhl0443w/naked-shorting-the-curious-incident-of-the-shares-that-didnt-exist
    >> For example, the Stokes paper, given for "detail", does not say that a naked short must involve more shares than there are in a company.
    true about 'must'; so?
    >> Even this more limited description goes is off the mark.
    the paper is useful when supportive but not when not
    >> If someone commits an act that might be deemed criminal but lacks the mens rea (state of mind, i.e. intent), then it is not necessarily criminal.
    I like the ref to Legally Blonde : https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/c0d9be9e-4864-43aa-b229-417bc08d8060
    >> A naked shorter might have the intent to cover but due to circumstances fail to deliver.
    A good defense. I sold and failed to deliver because ...
    >> FWIW, the SEC page Stokes cites in turn cites the very same page that I quoted from above. In it, the SEC states that "'Naked' short selling is not necessarily a violation of the federal securities laws or the Commission’s rules."
    'Not necessarily' is another good defense.
    >> Thus there must be some naked short-selling that is not market manipulation as a matter of law.
    I sold shares I did not have and do have and cannot get promptly but it's all good, because.
    >> The suggestion was that the SEC overhaul the DTCC, not that the SEC needs overhauling.
    not what I wrote, ineptly
    about SEC overhaul
    overhaul was transitive, not a noun; my bad.
    >> curb naked shorting abuses, not all naked shorting. Once again implying that naked shorting is not unconditionally illegal.
    Obviously, in hairsplit mode naked shorting should everywhere be and have been preceded by illegal or abusive or criminal or unlawful or like that. Intentional.
    >> if I sell a security that I failed to deliver, not by intent but by circumstances
    I find this to be approaching comedy, but if not, what would those circumstances be? No matter how hard you tried you could not locate shares following your sale of said shares. Seriously, explain the scenario. Please; I am ignorant here. Maybe the naked shorters have a circumstantial case which is not widely known. Meaning the shares are not from Neverland.
    Fwiw, this is sweeping and unambivalent (see ital and bottom line) and also up to date:
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453048-naked-short-selling
    You should maybe write for them the modulated and equivocal viewpoint?