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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Byron Wien’s 2022 predictions
    I thought in the light of world events it was worth taking a second look at Wien’s yearly predictions - a tradition dating back now for decades.
    Nothing about Russia invading Ukraine.
    He did predict oil topping $100.00
    And, while gold hasn’t set a new record high as he forecast yet, it appears headed in that direction.
    Predictions
  • European equities getting clocked today …
    The discrepancy between the performance of the stated fund share price and the performance of the portfolio may be due to fair value pricing.
    https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2020-302
    Morningstar provides last trade price, which for Russian stocks was Feb 25. A bit stale.
    Rerunning the numbers, assuming that TRP completely wrote off all Russian stocks, one gets a loss of around 77%. If TRP "marked down" some non-Russian securities as well, that could account for the other 9% in losses.
    Assuming that's what is going on, it is instructive to compare with EUROX. That fund, as of start of year, had over 56% invested in Europe. So if it had written off its Russian holdings, the fund would have dropped in fair value price at least 56%. Yet its YTD loss is a much smaller 42%.
    (The fund did have a few winners that may have boosted its YTD return by a couple of percent, but these were well outweighed by its non-Russian losers.)
    What this suggests is that how a fund prices its holdings can make a huge difference in its stated performance. Also, that the fund's board does matter. While funds can delegate pricing to third parties, the board retains oversight and is ultimately responsible for the prices.
    See thread on Mairs and Power proxy vote (in large part a vote to change to a new board).
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/59232/mairs-power-proxy-vote-on-murkiness
  • when up is down
    got it
    still unclear on the concept, except for the obvious political hot opining and such
    but why would this have wound up there?
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/55/houston-we-have-breakout#latest
  • European equities getting clocked today …
    Using a beginning value of $10K on 1/1/22 and an ending value of $1375.76 at the close on 3/4/22 it does compute to an 86.24% loss YTD. Whether $10K is the correct starting value I'll let others figure out.
  • European equities getting clocked today …
    M* also reports TRP's 86% loss. But looking at the portfolio I find that hard to believe.
    Looking at the starting (12/31/2021) portfolio, the six worst YTD stocks made up 27.42% of the fund at the beginning of the year. These were the only stocks to lose more than 72% YTD.
    [NOVATEK PJSC (NVTK, Russia), XS Retail Group NV (FIVE, Netherlands), TCS Group Holding PLC (TCS, Russia), Gazprom PJSC (OGZD), VK Co. Ltd (VKCO, British VI), and VEON Ltd (VEON, Russia)]
    For the sake of argument, say all six lost 99.72% - that's what the worst one did.
    For the sake of argument, say that the remaining 72.58% lost 72.42% - that's what the worst of the rest did.
    Absent any trading, this portfolio YTD lost 79.91%.
    27.42% x 99.72% + 72.58% x 72.42% = 79.91%.
    That was worst case; five of the six worst stocks lost less than 99.72%, and most of the others lost much less than 72.42. One Greek stock, Jumbo SA (BELA) even made money. So the actual loss of this portfolio was much less than 80%, let alone 86%.
    Either TRP's figure is way off, or the fund made some of the worst trades on record in the first couple of months of 2022.
    http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/details?t=TREMX (M* premium - all 41 stocks)
    http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/holdings?t=TREMX (basic - top 25 stocks)
    The biggest stinker (i.e. largest holding and one of the worst YTD returns) is Gazprom PJSC (OGZD), representing just under 16% of the fund and losing 93.71% YTD.
  • Mairs & Power proxy vote on murkiness
    Not to deviate too far from the original post, but the SilverDatsun handle struck me as most people don't remember Datsuns.
    I was wondering if you still own or owned a Datsun.
    I have my father's Datsun 1977 280Z 5-speed in the garage. Just took it out today to warm it up. I asked him when I was younger could I take it for a drive...he said "no!" Never realized I would be driving it after his passing. I get a lot of thumbs up or honking horns when I am out on the road.
    I voted for the proposals as it would lower the costs. Couldn't see what the downside would be to their proposals. I am sure there is a contingency plan if the proposals do not pass.
  • Mairs & Power proxy vote on murkiness
    Give me a Lada designed by the ones who composed (or translated? Mis-translated?) the literature surrounding the Mairs & Power proxy vote.
    image
  • European equities getting clocked today …
    TRP Emerging Europe (TREMX) is down -86.24% YTD. 67.61% of assets in Russian stocks. Looks like you can still purchase shares if one has an inkling to do so. Schwab is only allowing redemptions.
    Lipper doesn’t show that. But TRP’s own website does. Unconscionable IMHO. What retail investor has the time horizon and patience to own a fund like that? The math will probably reveal that you’d need a 95% gain to make up for that 86% YTD loss!
    Sure! Hang in there!
    T. Rowe Price sure ain’t what it used to be. That fund makes DraftKings look tame by comparison. You’d need to be severely diminished to loose 86% wagering.
  • Russian Ruble and Interest Rates: news link
    The notion that Bitcoin isn’t controlled by oligarchs like nations’ currencies are is laughable. It creates a might is right free for all in which whoever owns the most Bitcoin controls the currency. A currency for the wealthy and by the wealthy libertarians who have and seek no regulatory checks, government control or taxation. With national currency in democracies at least the ordinary people, the voters, have some say in that currency’s fate. Everyone’s vote ostensibly counts equally and we can elect officials who want to strengthen the dollar or weaken it. But much like at a corporation where whoever has the most shares has the most say in governance, crypto’s ownership and pricing have already been cornered and controlled by a handful of wealthy individuals, i.e, oligarchs. While oligarchs also run the U.S. today there are at least a few checks, the voting booth being one. Also, if Bitcoin wins, the dollar as the world reserve currency and the U.S. by proxy loses. If the dollar fails because of crypto, you can kiss the rest of your portfolio goodbye.
    In other words, meet the new boss, same as the old boss but now with less regulation: https://suissegold.eu/en/posts/could-a-group-corner-the-bitcoin-market
    Fascinatingly, about 1% of Bitcoin owners own about 70% of all outstanding Bitcoins. This contrasts with about 3% of the global population owning about 70% of global wealth. Interestingly, the difference between Bitcoin ownership and other financial asset concentration is not that much.
    Shifting to the green portion, the top 0.71% of Bitcoin owners own 55% of the cryptocurrency, while the distribution is slightly smaller for owners of other financial assets. The top 0.71% of owners of euro and dollar denominated assets own about 41% of all the wealth.
  • European equities getting clocked today …
    Quite a contrast to US Global Investors Emerging Europe, EUROX, which has fallen "only" 42.16% YTD. They each have about 3/4 in emerging Europe. TREMX has about 6% more in Russia and 5% less in Turkey, otherwise nothing jumps out. This suggests poor issue selection as much as being in the wrong place at the wrong time.
    Not that it matters, but one wonders how much of that 86% decline is due to falling stock prices and how much is due to "unfavorable" currency exchange rates. I assume TREMX is unhedged.
    Unsurprisingly, LETRX is down 91.8% YTD.
  • European equities getting clocked today …
    TRP Emerging Europe (TREMX) is down -86.24% YTD. 67.61% of assets in Russian stocks. Looks like you can still purchase shares if one has an inkling to do so. Schwab is only allowing redemptions.
    Top 10 Holdings
    MonthlyQuarterly
    Represents 68.47% of Total Net Assets
    As of
    1/31/2022
    Gazprom
    15.94%
    Sberbank of Russia
    11.84%
    Lukoil PJSC
    10.81%
    National Bank of Greece
    5.57%
    Yandex
    5.37%
    Novatek PJSC
    4.62%
    OTP Bank
    4.33%
    Bank Pekao
    3.38%
    Rosneft PJSC
    3.35%
    TCS Group Holding
    3.28%
    WOW. Some of their holdings are almost down 100% YTD.
  • European equities getting clocked today …
    TRP Emerging Europe (TREMX) is down -86.24% YTD. 67.61% of assets in Russian stocks. Looks like you can still purchase shares if one has an inkling to do so. Schwab is only allowing redemptions.
    Top 10 Holdings
    MonthlyQuarterly
    Represents 68.47% of Total Net Assets
    As of
    1/31/2022
    Gazprom
    15.94%
    Sberbank of Russia
    11.84%
    Lukoil PJSC
    10.81%
    National Bank of Greece
    5.57%
    Yandex
    5.37%
    Novatek PJSC
    4.62%
    OTP Bank
    4.33%
    Bank Pekao
    3.38%
    Rosneft PJSC
    3.35%
    TCS Group Holding
    3.28%
  • TMSRX
    Holly ****
    Off another .72% today. That puts its year-over-year loss at 8%. Anybody know what’s going on at TRP? Maybe somebody should call them? I thought this was supposed to be a “defensive” fund.
    I’ve been a defender of this fund in the past. The published benchmark is the 90 day T-Bill (yielding maybe …0.10%?) Pretty minimal expectation. It shouldn’t require this amount of volatility to achieve that meager goal. In the back of my mind, it’s the 5-manager setup that’s partially to blame. Perhaps there’s little coordination among the competing members? And (just a guess) they’re probably relatively inexperienced people.
    At one time TMSRX was my single largest holding - comprising somewhere in the low double-digits percentage-wise. I’ve already moved about half of the earlier stake to BAMBX. But, I’m sure if I sell the rest it’ll pop 10% in short order.
  • The 10 stock and bond funds with the biggest Russia exposure
    Interesting that GMO has (or had) 2 equity funds with north of 10% in Russia.
    Also, PRELX (TRP) is listed with a 6.1% weighting in Russia among bond funds, but has held up substantially better this year than Price’s normally tamer (hedged) EM bond fund, PREMX.
    PRELX was down 5% YTD as of yesterday, while PREMX was down nearly 10%. if you’re holding some of TRP’s allocation funds, particularly RPSIX, you’re likely absorbing some of the hit.
    Ouch! - any way you cut it.
    I’m going to write today off as a miserably waste! Aside from a modest hold in TAIL and some p/m miners not much is jumping, leaping - or even crawling forward. :)
    I've lately pared back much of my RPSIX. Preserving profit. The fund is down to 11.09% of my total right now.
  • European equities getting clocked today …
    Closing numbers 3/4/22
    FTSE 100 (U.K.) -2.7%
    DAX (Germany) -3.85%
    CAX 40 (France) -4.26%
    STOXX (Eurozone) -4.21%
  • The 10 stock and bond funds with the biggest Russia exposure
    Interesting that GMO has (or had) 2 equity funds with north of 10% in Russia.
    Also, PRELX (TRP) is listed with a 6.1% weighting in Russia among bond funds, but has held up substantially better this year than Price’s normally tamer (hedged) EM bond fund, PREMX.
    PRELX was down 5% YTD as of yesterday, while PREMX was down nearly 10%. if you’re holding some of TRP’s allocation funds, particularly RPSIX, you’re likely absorbing some of the hit.
    Ouch! - any way you cut it.
    I’m going to write today off as a miserably waste! Aside from a modest hold in TAIL and some p/m miners not much is jumping, leaping - or even crawling forward. :)