FIVE GEE Sigh. I would not want to quip too subtly for the room, but veteran business writer Peter Coy's report in toto is interesting not only about FAA imputed pokiness (all the moreso given OJ's take) but also about gov stymying of its own agency as Kudlow brags of and takes such pride in.
Especially since DSP can indeed readily solve things:
“This is very, very easily solved technically,” said Theodore Rappaport, a developer of 5G technology who is a professor at New York University’s Tandon School of Engineering. “It’s frustrating as an engineer” to see the old technology still in use, he said. The F.A.A.’s argument is that it couldn’t issue a new standard for radar altimeters without knowing in detail the design of the 5G equipment. Etc.
Kudlow's comical college history was on point for anyone familiar with his years of divisive rightwing free-market blathering in economics and policy as Trump's NEC head, and before --- here crowing about beating the gov agency crucially charged w air safety. Seriously.
A commenter makes the point plainly but without any classmate jokes about a former Porsche-driving SDS leader who (sort of) reversed course in life:
... Ajit Pai [FCC], Larry Kudlow, and the rest of the clown car went to Washington to let industry, in this case the communications industry, do anything they pleased. Maybe that was based on their childlike faith that markets cure all ills and government can only do wrong. But the result was that administrative agencies whose job was nonprofit things like, you know, not crashing airplanes had no voice in the Trump government, and businesses such as telecom has no one watching who cared about consequences. The result was predictable. The wonder is that no one has died as a result. Yet.
Getting off the sidelines - when?
How Often Should You Expect a Stock Market Correction? "I grew up in the 50s and 60s. Both parents harbored vivid memories of the ‘29 stock market crash and Depression through which they lived. So stocks were somewhat of a dirty word among many (if not most) working class families in my childhood years. Few of ordinary means owned them."@hank- Exactly the same here. Given that, it would seem reasonable to think that the market action in the
50s / 60s would not be comparable to the present time, when everybody and their brother, experienced or not, is trying to beat the market.
I'm Not Sure Wood at ARK ETF Knows What "Soul Searching" Really Is ARKK dropped to $64.99. So, if you had a limit order for $65, you may have bought some.
FIVE GEE @catch22- following is the pertinent text from the NYT article. The SDS reference re Kudlow is interesting but not germane to the topic.
The F.A.A. also argues that it was excluded from decisions about 5G. In 2020, the F.A.A. administrator, Stephen Dixon, prepared a letter to ... the F.C.C., expressing concerns about 5G interference, but the letter was not passed along by ... the acting director of the Commerce Department’s National Telecommunications and Information Administration.
Larry Kudlow, who headed President Donald Trump’s National Economic Council, even bragged about blowing off the F.A.A., saying on his Fox Business show, “We ignored them because the science said don’t worry about it.” He added later, “We actually fought the F.A.A. and we won.”
It appears now that the Trump administration won the battle but not the war. One result of the extended conflict between the F.C.C. and the F.A.A. is that even now, nearly a year after the spectrum for 5G was auctioned off, the F.A.A. is still at the stage of information-gathering as it moves toward eventually issuing new requirements for radar altimeters. It is likely to take five years for all altimeters to be upgraded.
In my opinion the FAA is now and always has been notoriously slow in staying on top of evolving safety issues. They have been criticized many times by the NTSB for inaction on known or potential safety problems. In this case apparently they at least went through the motions of trying to participate in resolving the
5G issues, but were rebuffed by the Trump administration.
The NYT article also mentions that there are technological fixes for radio interference by using various types of filters, and/or by redesign of the radio altimeters themselves. This is true to a point, the but installation of filters in the affected aircraft may very well introduce other problems, and of course modifying or replacing the altimeters will be a very costly procedure likely involving significant aircraft downtime. As usual, money is involved, so we have potential winners and losers.
It's quite possible that rather than engage in an unproductive inter-agency fight the FAA elected to let the airlines themselves carry the fight to the FCC. These people are masters at this sort of thing. This is what I meant in my post up above where I said that "something is really smelly here.".
OJ
Tip-toeing in anyone? Filled limit order on ASML. Have placed another at 625.
+1 Go for it!
I’ll try to change my DKNG order from “day” to “GTC” as it has rebounded substantially from this morning’s $17.
50 level. Won’t break my heart if it never gets that low. A little bit of that one goes a long way (200 octane). :)
FWIW. Wood’s ARKK partially refloated itself today. Was down over 9% this morning. It’s actually in the
green as I write.
Tip-toeing in anyone? Filled limit order on ASML. Have placed another at 625.
Tip-toeing in anyone? added to GGSOX on 1/19- Believe it was -12% @ that time.
GP's latest GPGEX - Will add to that when it hits -10% & it's work on that drop.
Sold MAINX a short time ago & then it started a + move !
No serious dips yet, Derf
PS I'll sell either
VMVAX or VSIAX
if they drop to
<25% profit level.
That should stop
the downturn !!
Tip-toeing in anyone? Just picked up a few additional shares of WPM at $39
Order in for DKNG at $17 - about $.50 below current price (own some @ average price around $20.)
IMHO - Too early to take a serious dip, but may be some targeted opportunities if your time horizon is more than a few months.
Indexes as I write: DJI -800 points 32,436 / NASDAQ -500 13,280 S&P -130 4264
How Often Should You Expect a Stock Market Correction? “The market is a bundle of irrationality.”I grew up in the
50s and 60s. Both parents harbored vivid memories of the ‘29 stock market crash and Depression through which they lived. So
stocks were somewhat of a dirty word among many (if not most) working class families in my childhood years. Few of ordinary means owned them.
(I tried to elucidate further but got trapped in an endless quagmire of words …. :) ) However, I do see human irrationality playing a big part in the markets of recent years. That includes not only equities, but assets like real estate, bonds, crypto. And further, that uniquely human ingredient compounds the difficulty of determining where true value exists and where’s there’s mostly fluff.
In early November I wrote:
“I’ve never seen such heightened speculation across the wide investment spectrum … “ This Time It’s Different? / MFO Discussion Topic
I'm Not Sure Wood at ARK ETF Knows What "Soul Searching" Really Is I just checked at M* the valuation of top 10 components of ARKK portfolio. Two companies are rated four stars (Twilio & Zoom), one company is rated five star (Teladoc), and one company is rated two stars (Tesla). All other companies are rated 3 stars. The higher the star rating the more undervalued a company is. Assuming M* valuation work can be relied upon and assuming the market pays attention to M* work, it appears ARKK may currently be in the range of fair value. But given market's mood always swings too far from the median, another 15% drop in ARKK from today's close price would put it at $64.50, which I think is a good entry point.
We might reach $6
5 this week as many of the three star and 2 star stocks get re-rated to higher stars. Tesla has to move from 2 star to 3-4 star sometime during the current swoon.
FIVE GEE
How Often Should You Expect a Stock Market Correction? Ben Carlson reports on the frequency of corrections/bear markets/crashes for the S&P
500, Nasdaq Composite Index, and Russell 2000.
"It is important to remember this is just something that happens from time to time in the stock market.
The only reason you get high returns over the long run is because you occasionally experience losses in the short run. This is a feature, not a bug."I wholeheartedly agree with Mr. Carlson's closing statement:
"I suppose there are some investors who can change up their strategy from bull markets to bear markets but I haven’t met too many who can do so consistently. I’m a much bigger fan of creating a portfolio that takes corrections and bear markets into account when you create your investment plan. You should strive to create a saving and investing process that is durable enough to handle both up and down markets."Link
Getting off the sidelines - when? I've had an Ally Online Savings Account since late 2013.
This account currently offers an APR of 0.50%.
There are no monthly maintenance fees or minimum balance requirements.
Since opening the Ally account, I've opened several savings/checking accounts at other financial institutions to take advantage of appealing rates. These accounts were subsequently closed after prevailing rates became uncompetitive. Rate comparison shopping coupled with opening/closing accounts became tiresome so I haven't pursued this in several years. The Ally Online Savings Account is primarily used for savings and as a "hub" for electronic fund transfers to/from my other financial institutions. I'm a satisfied Ally customer since they have a good website, offer a reasonable APR (for current conditions), and I haven't encountered any EFT issues.
RLSFX
Getting off the sidelines - when? The stock market is adjusting to the reality that interest rates are probably heading up for at least a while. It's too early for me to have a clear sense as to how far and for how long. As to one of the questions at the start of this thread:
For those waiting on better valuations to buy Equities, at what point would you be a serious Buyer? Do you have a specific plan in place?
My last significant portfolio changes occurred in 2020 when high yield and utility stock sleeves were added to the portfolio (they now constitute about 40% of portfolio). The high yield sleeve purchases mostly focused on real estate, financial, and energy sector stocks that appeared to be on sale as well as on a few CEF purchases. Also, I used proceeds from the sale of ZEOIX to buy some utility stocks that appeared to be reasonably priced. That active trading year was followed by some 2021 portfolio cleanup trades as well as a little "special situations" trading (that produced mixed results). My basic goal for 2022 is to refocus on being a buy and hold investor. VIX above 3
5 for a while with a fair amount of panic and exhaustion would get me thinking about making some changes again. A possibility list for trades is being maintained but I would want to see what looks interesting at the time I become motivated. That type of market probably produces the Zweig momentum buy signal Junkster mentioned. But I don't know where to find that one.
Parnassus Endeavor Fund Mark, I appreciate your input!
Here's what I know and read:
Endeavor is an All-cap Value fund (280.5B avg. weighted mkt cap; active share 88.63%) with a Capital Appreciation objective; Core Equity is a Large Cap Blend fund (510.4B avg. weighted mkt cap; active share 76.29%) with a Capital Appreciation and Current Income objective and the S&P 500 as its boogie.
Per the Parnassus website, although they are invested in the same sectors (except for no Materials in Endeavor) the weightings are somewhat different. Several sector weightings are double the other fund. Both funds are concentrated, 38 for CORE EQUITY and 43 for Endeavor, that include contrarian stocks (per their website).
Also, I believe both Endeavor and Core Equity focus on ESG. Not sure if one is more focused than the other, but either way ESG has NO bearing on my decision to invest or not!!!
One last thought, they do not seem to act in tandem very often, per my observations, not statistically verified.
I don't know if there is enough differences between the two funds, hence my question and hesitation!
Any further comments, suggestions, thoughts very welcome!
Matt
