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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • How Often Should You Expect a Stock Market Correction?
    "I grew up in the 50s and 60s. Both parents harbored vivid memories of the ‘29 stock market crash and Depression through which they lived. So stocks were somewhat of a dirty word among many (if not most) working class families in my childhood years. Few of ordinary means owned them."
    @hank- Exactly the same here. Given that, it would seem reasonable to think that the market action in the 50s / 60s would not be comparable to the present time, when everybody and their brother, experienced or not, is trying to beat the market.
  • I'm Not Sure Wood at ARK ETF Knows What "Soul Searching" Really Is
    ARKK dropped to $64.99. So, if you had a limit order for $65, you may have bought some.
  • FIVE GEE
    @catch22- following is the pertinent text from the NYT article. The SDS reference re Kudlow is interesting but not germane to the topic.
    The F.A.A. also argues that it was excluded from decisions about 5G. In 2020, the F.A.A. administrator, Stephen Dixon, prepared a letter to ... the F.C.C., expressing concerns about 5G interference, but the letter was not passed along by ... the acting director of the Commerce Department’s National Telecommunications and Information Administration.
    Larry Kudlow, who headed President Donald Trump’s National Economic Council, even bragged about blowing off the F.A.A., saying on his Fox Business show, “We ignored them because the science said don’t worry about it.” He added later, “We actually fought the F.A.A. and we won.”
    It appears now that the Trump administration won the battle but not the war. One result of the extended conflict between the F.C.C. and the F.A.A. is that even now, nearly a year after the spectrum for 5G was auctioned off, the F.A.A. is still at the stage of information-gathering as it moves toward eventually issuing new requirements for radar altimeters. It is likely to take five years for all altimeters to be upgraded.
    In my opinion the FAA is now and always has been notoriously slow in staying on top of evolving safety issues. They have been criticized many times by the NTSB for inaction on known or potential safety problems. In this case apparently they at least went through the motions of trying to participate in resolving the 5G issues, but were rebuffed by the Trump administration.
    The NYT article also mentions that there are technological fixes for radio interference by using various types of filters, and/or by redesign of the radio altimeters themselves. This is true to a point, the but installation of filters in the affected aircraft may very well introduce other problems, and of course modifying or replacing the altimeters will be a very costly procedure likely involving significant aircraft downtime. As usual, money is involved, so we have potential winners and losers.
    It's quite possible that rather than engage in an unproductive inter-agency fight the FAA elected to let the airlines themselves carry the fight to the FCC. These people are masters at this sort of thing. This is what I meant in my post up above where I said that "something is really smelly here.".
    OJ
  • Tip-toeing in anyone?
    Filled limit order on ASML. Have placed another at 625.
    +1 Go for it!
    I’ll try to change my DKNG order from “day” to “GTC” as it has rebounded substantially from this morning’s $17.50 level. Won’t break my heart if it never gets that low. A little bit of that one goes a long way (200 octane). :)
    FWIW. Wood’s ARKK partially refloated itself today. Was down over 9% this morning. It’s actually in the green as I write.
  • Tip-toeing in anyone?
    Filled limit order on ASML. Have placed another at 625.
  • Tip-toeing in anyone?
    added to GGSOX on 1/19- Believe it was -12% @ that time.
    GP's latest GPGEX - Will add to that when it hits -10% & it's work on that drop.
    Sold MAINX a short time ago & then it started a + move !
    No serious dips yet, Derf
    PS I'll sell either
    VMVAX or VSIAX
    if they drop to
    <25% profit level.
    That should stop
    the downturn !!
  • Tip-toeing in anyone?
    Just picked up a few additional shares of WPM at $39
    Order in for DKNG at $17 - about $.50 below current price (own some @ average price around $20.)
    IMHO - Too early to take a serious dip, but may be some targeted opportunities if your time horizon is more than a few months.
    Indexes as I write: DJI -800 points 32,436 / NASDAQ -500 13,280 S&P -130 4264
  • How Often Should You Expect a Stock Market Correction?
    “The market is a bundle of irrationality.”
    I grew up in the 50s and 60s. Both parents harbored vivid memories of the ‘29 stock market crash and Depression through which they lived. So stocks were somewhat of a dirty word among many (if not most) working class families in my childhood years. Few of ordinary means owned them.
    (I tried to elucidate further but got trapped in an endless quagmire of words …. :) ) However, I do see human irrationality playing a big part in the markets of recent years. That includes not only equities, but assets like real estate, bonds, crypto. And further, that uniquely human ingredient compounds the difficulty of determining where true value exists and where’s there’s mostly fluff.
    In early November I wrote: “I’ve never seen such heightened speculation across the wide investment spectrum … “
    This Time It’s Different? / MFO Discussion Topic
  • I'm Not Sure Wood at ARK ETF Knows What "Soul Searching" Really Is
    I just checked at M* the valuation of top 10 components of ARKK portfolio. Two companies are rated four stars (Twilio & Zoom), one company is rated five star (Teladoc), and one company is rated two stars (Tesla). All other companies are rated 3 stars. The higher the star rating the more undervalued a company is. Assuming M* valuation work can be relied upon and assuming the market pays attention to M* work, it appears ARKK may currently be in the range of fair value. But given market's mood always swings too far from the median, another 15% drop in ARKK from today's close price would put it at $64.50, which I think is a good entry point.
    We might reach $65 this week as many of the three star and 2 star stocks get re-rated to higher stars. Tesla has to move from 2 star to 3-4 star sometime during the current swoon.
  • FIVE GEE
    See
    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/19/opinion/5g-airports-cellular.html
    Kudlow was a college classmate of mine, Porsche-driving (iirc) SDS leader
  • How Often Should You Expect a Stock Market Correction?
    Ben Carlson reports on the frequency of corrections/bear markets/crashes for the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite Index, and Russell 2000.
    "It is important to remember this is just something that happens from time to time in the stock market.
    The only reason you get high returns over the long run is because you occasionally experience losses in the short run. This is a feature, not a bug."

    I wholeheartedly agree with Mr. Carlson's closing statement:
    "I suppose there are some investors who can change up their strategy from bull markets to bear markets but I haven’t met too many who can do so consistently. I’m a much bigger fan of creating a portfolio that takes corrections and bear markets into account when you create your investment plan. You should strive to create a saving and investing process that is durable enough to handle both up and down markets."
    Link
  • Getting off the sidelines - when?
    I've had an Ally Online Savings Account since late 2013.
    This account currently offers an APR of 0.50%.
    There are no monthly maintenance fees or minimum balance requirements.
    Since opening the Ally account, I've opened several savings/checking accounts at other financial institutions to take advantage of appealing rates. These accounts were subsequently closed after prevailing rates became uncompetitive. Rate comparison shopping coupled with opening/closing accounts became tiresome so I haven't pursued this in several years. The Ally Online Savings Account is primarily used for savings and as a "hub" for electronic fund transfers to/from my other financial institutions. I'm a satisfied Ally customer since they have a good website, offer a reasonable APR (for current conditions), and I haven't encountered any EFT issues.
  • RLSFX
    BIVRX paid a sizeable distribution which didn't help last year.
    https://www.invenomic.com/_files/ugd/8592d8_e37e8ee623b14023b6c6c4e218d69697.pdf
    $1.55 STCG
    $.95 LTCG
  • Getting off the sidelines - when?
    The stock market is adjusting to the reality that interest rates are probably heading up for at least a while. It's too early for me to have a clear sense as to how far and for how long. As to one of the questions at the start of this thread:
    For those waiting on better valuations to buy Equities, at what point would you be a serious Buyer? Do you have a specific plan in place?
    My last significant portfolio changes occurred in 2020 when high yield and utility stock sleeves were added to the portfolio (they now constitute about 40% of portfolio). The high yield sleeve purchases mostly focused on real estate, financial, and energy sector stocks that appeared to be on sale as well as on a few CEF purchases. Also, I used proceeds from the sale of ZEOIX to buy some utility stocks that appeared to be reasonably priced. That active trading year was followed by some 2021 portfolio cleanup trades as well as a little "special situations" trading (that produced mixed results). My basic goal for 2022 is to refocus on being a buy and hold investor. VIX above 35 for a while with a fair amount of panic and exhaustion would get me thinking about making some changes again. A possibility list for trades is being maintained but I would want to see what looks interesting at the time I become motivated. That type of market probably produces the Zweig momentum buy signal Junkster mentioned. But I don't know where to find that one.
  • Parnassus Endeavor Fund
    Mark, I appreciate your input!
    Here's what I know and read:
    Endeavor is an All-cap Value fund (280.5B avg. weighted mkt cap; active share 88.63%) with a Capital Appreciation objective; Core Equity is a Large Cap Blend fund (510.4B avg. weighted mkt cap; active share 76.29%) with a Capital Appreciation and Current Income objective and the S&P 500 as its boogie.
    Per the Parnassus website, although they are invested in the same sectors (except for no Materials in Endeavor) the weightings are somewhat different. Several sector weightings are double the other fund. Both funds are concentrated, 38 for CORE EQUITY and 43 for Endeavor, that include contrarian stocks (per their website).
    Also, I believe both Endeavor and Core Equity focus on ESG. Not sure if one is more focused than the other, but either way ESG has NO bearing on my decision to invest or not!!!
    One last thought, they do not seem to act in tandem very often, per my observations, not statistically verified.
    I don't know if there is enough differences between the two funds, hence my question and hesitation!
    Any further comments, suggestions, thoughts very welcome!
    Matt
  • Discrepancy on YTD Performance at Lipper?
    Occasionally Lipper has 2 different YTD numbers displayed for a given fund. As it seems to pertain more to those that pay dividends, I’m guessing one number is the NAV YTD and the other (better) number includes interest or dividends. Correct?
    Here’s a link to the Lipper page for DFND. The initial YTD return is -9.30%. But if you pull up the “performance” page, the YTD is somewhat better at -9.09%.
    http://www.funds.reuters.wallst.com/US/etfs/performance.asp?YYY622_LT56GikCFKSqynINSN/wMKzCbDBLcGXIWzlyYCETzzaDFj/yU4JQG9tWNwN4Rw3Y
  • Getting off the sidelines - when?
    Sources?
    DepositAccounts reports:
    Ally Bank - 769 customer reviews, 3½ stars
    Discover Bank - 231 reviews; 3½ stars
    Marcus - 198 reviews; 2½ stars
    If we're talking about personal experience, I've been a customer since before Goldman Sachs renamed it Marcus Bank (Dec 2017), before Goldman Sachs acquired the former GE Capital Bank (April 2016). I got tired of chasing bank rates and settled on a bank with moderately high rates that didn't bounce all over the place.
    Maybe if you're dealing with the bank for a loan, or need help wiring money, quality service isn't there. I don't know; I just use it to ACH money back and forth. Never had an issue. If you want cash management services (checking, ATM) it's not the bank for you.
    Money starts earning interest the day you initiate an inbound transfer, so I don't care whether that ACH takes one day or three. Unlike some online banks, one can link two ways, so that pulls or pushes work from either side.
    I've used Ally Bank, and I still use it for liquid CDs (Ally gives a 0.05% bonus for CD renewals). Though they were more useful in the past to lock in rates when they were falling. Now with rising rates, not so much. Limited to six withdrawals per period.
    Discover Bank pays the same 0.50% as the other banks, though that's new. Like Ally, still limited to six withdrawals per period.
    That's according to the mouse-over for the "excessive withdrawal fee" on this page. OTOH, one of its FAQ answers reads: " We are currently not enforcing the monthly transaction limit on savings and money market accounts." So the bank doesn't allow you more than six withdrawals but it won't stop you?
  • Parnassus Endeavor Fund
    I currently own PRBLX/PRILX in two R-IRA accounts. I have been looking for a LCV fund to "diversify" a little bit, because of the presumed rate hikes causing a slowdown in growth.
    One fund that keeps popping up on my screen is PARWX/PFPWX. I've been following it since Mr. Hwan took sole duties and it appears he is doing what he said he would, reduce volatility, add some diversification, add alpha, lower SD, etc.
    I am contemplating adding Endeavor to compliment Core, but there are concerns. There are about a dozen stocks in common, but only ONE in the top 10 positions. Most metrics favor PRBLX/PRILX and returns are not dramatically lower in the recent past (1,3,5 years).
    Any thoughts on the rational to hold both of these funds? Suggestions, critiques, opinions welcome!
    Matt
  • Getting off the sidelines - when?
    When I saw "up to 9 withdrawals per month", I was wondering if you read the number upside down :-) As AMEX explains, there used to be a federally mandated limit of six. After that legal restriction was lifted banks were permitted (not required) to allow an arbitrary (or unlimited) number of withdrawals. AMEX chose nine. Its page doesn't say why.
    https://www.americanexpress.com/en-us/banking/online-savings/faq/monthly-withdrawal-limit/
    If you're shopping for a new account also check out Marcus. It too pays 0.50%, it has unlimited withdrawals, and most important, it has a good promotion right now. Register for the promotion, deposit $10K or more, leave that in the bank for 90 days (last year it was 60, they did turn that number upside down), and they'll add $100 to your account.
    https://www.marcus.com/us/en/savings/osa-savingsbonus
    (There's also a referral bonus that a new customer can share with an existing customer. This appears to stack with the $100 promotion: "Referral Bonuses may be combined with other promotional offers available to Marcus customers.")
    https://www.marcus.com/us/en/savings/referral-offer-terms
  • FIVE GEE
    Here's a current article from the Wall Street Journal which pretty well sums up the whole fiasco. The link is free to non-subscribers:
    ‘It Wasn’t Our Finest Hour’