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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Is there a site that tracks fund buys/sells over time?
    M* makes it easy to look up recent performance of the top 25 holdings. Or in the case of LLPFX, all 17 equity holdings. One can go to the M* legacy holdings page for a fund, get links for each of the top 25 holdings, click on those links and from thence the link for each security's immediately trailing returns.
    Legacy M* holdings page for LLPFX
    Figuring on around a half minute per holding, that's around a quarter hour. Still tedious, but manageable. Of course one would have to do this immediately following the period of interest since the easily available data are immediately trailing one week (and one month, etc.) returns.
    FWIW, looking at LLPFX, after August (i.e. recently) I don't see an 8% jump in a week. In a month, perhaps.
    The fund declined for most of Sept, hitting its nadir on Sept 21, then climbing 3% and giving most of it back by Sept 30th. From that point, the fund generally ascended, reaching an 8% increase on Nov 4th and topping out with a 10% gain in Nov 5th. From there the fund gave everything plus a little more back by Dec 1.
    From this new low point, the fund never climbed 8%. It did rise 7% by Dec 27th, where it effectively plateaued. So I took a quick look for holdings that climbed sharply over the month of December.
    MGM up 13%, H (Hyatt) up 22%, FFH (Fairfax Financial) up 10%, CNHI (CNH Industrial) up 19%, FDX (FedEx) up 13%.
  • It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future
    "On Oct. 15, 1929, the pre-eminent economist in the U.S., Irving Fisher of Yale University, captured headlines by declaring stocks had reached 'what looks like a permanently high plateau.' That day, the Dow closed at 347.24. Less than two weeks later, the Crash of 1929 began. The Dow finally hit bedrock on July 8, 1932, at 41.22."
    "On Jan. 7, 1981, the popular technical analyst Joe Granville told his newsletter subscribers to 'sell everything.' The Dow, then about 1000, tumbled 3.9% in two days on then-record trading volume. In November 1985 he called for the Dow, then around 1400, to sink to "600 or lower" within six months. Instead the index shot above 1800."
    "In 2010, Robert Prechter, president of Elliott Wave International, a newsletter publisher and data service in Gainesville, Ga., called for the Dow (then around 10000) to fall below 1000 within six years. Six years later, the index was at roughly 18000."
    "This week, the book 'Dow 36,000' by James Glassman and Kevin Hassett turned out to be prophetic. The Dow Jones Industrial Average should hit that mark 'very quickly,' 'immediately,' even 'today,' the book had proclaimed. The book was published Oct. 1, 1999, when the Dow closed at 10273. More than 22 years later, the index very briefly crossed the mark at 9:42 a.m. on Monday, in a moment barely noticed by investors."
    Link
  • What moves are you considering for 2022?
    I enter 2022 as per below. I plan to increase positions in SFHYX, ARBIX, TRAIX, NTSX and start a position in SVARX
    Alts - 59%
    US Stocks - 18%
    US Bonds - 11%
    Intl Stocks - 5%
    Intl Bonds - 2%
    Cash - 5%
    Positions I hold in decreasing order of position size are
    PSLDX
    TRLGX
    JHEQX
    TRAIX
    I- bonds
    NTSX
    70/30 Domestic/Intl Blend Fund in 529 Account
    Guaranteed Tuition Fund
    BRUFX
    GISYX
    ARBIX
    SFHYX
    COMB
    MAFIX
    NICHX
    MFAIX
    APFDX
    VITSX
    BLNDX
  • Small-caps at all?
    Looking for some guidance here. As previously mentioned, I hold MSSMX and WAMCX and they have underperformed in 2021: 5.78 and 5.46. I noted @gk3105gklm comment about how he traded out of them as they are “ex champs”. Wondering what prompted that and when?
    Running MFO premium for CSMCX FCPGX MSSGX WAMCX and NEAGX and it’s clear that MFO also dropped my two funds to a 1 and 2 rating in 1 year performance. Side Note: Wouldn’t it be great to have MFO alert you when a fund in your watch list or port dropped in overall rating? Valueline did that. Would it be in time or advantageous?
    The rating drop was deserved based on this years performance. Sure. These two funds have highest risk in 1 and 3 year as well. 10 yr performance, MFO still doesn’t like MSSGX in terms of overall rating. It’s rated a 2 for 10 yr. I don’t recall that when I first evaluated. 20 year it’s a 5. FWIW: M* ratings based on past performance remain unchanged 5*.
    NEAGX is rated 5 for all periods. Wondering why this fund didn’t make my screening process. I’m still reviewing this.
    While I’m deciding whether to stay or make a change with these two funds, I’m equally as interested in learning how to better evaluate an exit or change. Not a momentum trader. “Consistent Underperformance” is somewhat subjective, no? Is that 1 year or 2 years if there’s been no change to mgmt or underlying fund strategy change. It could be what @BenWP said… just some bad choices in high flying small caps. What makes me confident that they will correct?
  • I'm Not Sure Wood at ARK ETF Knows What "Soul Searching" Really Is
    “Our strategy is our strategy,” she said. “The opportunity in our strategy is huge right now.
    We expect a compound annual rate of return of roughly over 40% over the next five years.

    Although the 5 year average annual return (as of 12/31/20) for ARKK was 45.40%,
    it seems improbable that the fund will compound annually at ~40% over the next 5 years.
  • What moves are you considering for 2022?
    Entering 2022 portfolio positioned as:
    TANDX (Castle Tandem Fund)
    ARTTX (Artisan Focus Fund)
    FMSDX (Fidelity Multi Asset Income Fund)
    PVCMX (Palm Valley Capital Fund)
    5 YR CDs laddered (3.25-3.55%)
    MMmkt (FDIC insured)
    IBonds - max amount
    Do like Tandem, you can look up archives at tandemadvisors.com, ~30% in cash, invests in companies that can grow, their Large Cap portfolio which is run similar to TANDX..."seeks to produce superior risk-adjusted returns, while minimizing volatility over a complete market cycle. Tandem’s investment philosophy requires that portfolio companies consistently grow both earnings and dividends. LCC differs from Tandem’s other strategies in that dividends must be paid to be included in LCC. Tandem believes dividend growth justified by earnings growth should allow stocks to perform well over time regardless of economic or market conditions. A proprietary semi-quantitative investment methodology is utilized to produce returns that experience less volatility than, and correlation to, the broader market."
    TANDX's lower volatility keeps me from janking in and out of the fund, regardless of what noise is in the markets that day.
    Like ARTTX as there is a strong thought of mine that there is NO WAY that Powell is going to raise rates...so I hold this fund...keep in mind during this recent Santa Claus rally, $126B was pumped in by Powell...ya really think he is concerned about inflation...jawboning or clown show? Dunno. This fund has proactive risk managment and invests in profitable companies with strong forecasted earnings growth.
    PVCMX holds a lot of cash but has shown during a "flush/drawdown" they know what to do and will act.
    Here's to a great, healthy, properous and joyful new year to all,
    Baseball Fan
  • I'm Not Sure Wood at ARK ETF Knows What "Soul Searching" Really Is
    https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-09/cathie-wood-says-ark-soul-searching-as-once-stellar-funds-lag?sref=3zYETA5s
    The $17.8 billion ARK Innovation ETF has tumbled more than 20% this year, with several of its top holdings like electric-vehicle giant Tesla Inc. and video-streaming platform Roku Inc. down from their peaks. During the same period, the S&P 500 Index climbed about 24%.
    “I’ve never been in a market that is up -- has appreciated -- and our strategies are down,” Wood said in a Thursday interview with Bloomberg Television. “That has never happened before.”
    Wood says her funds are sticking to their plans even after the rough stretch, and that their models forecast big returns in the next half decade.
    “Our strategy is our strategy,” she said. “The opportunity in our strategy is huge right now. We expect a compound annual rate of return of roughly over 40% over the next five years.”
    “When we go through a period like this, of course we are going through soul-searching, saying ‘are we missing something?’” she said, adding that in response, Ark has doubled down on its research and modeling.
    What does the good book say--pride cometh before...
  • What moves are you considering for 2022?
    @BenWP - Thank you for the interesting write-up on last year’s gems and clunkers. Nothing I owned “stunk up the joint” unless you count TMSRX - which couldn’t seem to get out of its own way. It’s been demoted from a 45-50% weighting inside my Alternative sleeve to a less impactful 25% at present. My 30% + allocation to fixed income didn’t shine - and surely hasn’t kept pace with inflation. But I expected that. In fact, I thought it would be worse. DODIX and DODLX both finished the year with losses under 1%. I will continue to hold both investment grade and more speculative grades of fixed income due to tolerance level and age.
    Agree with you … I expected more from RPGAX.
  • What moves are you considering for 2022?
    While I don’t know what moves I may make for 2022, I have done a cursory review of what happened to my portfolio last year. Global growth stunk up the joint with MGGPX the worst offender with APFDX and ARTRX taking nose dives in the last few months of the year. Global allocation, as in RPGAX, was also a drag. Our biggest domestic growth fund, BIAWX, did fine, but trailed SPYG. TIEIX, the biggest position in the retirement account, outperformed the Nasdaq while rising 23%. EM was a bad joke, represented by ARTYX, who was shown the door a while back. Foreign large growth, PWJZX, was very volatile; up 13%, it failed to return even half of the S&P 500. I have more work to do on this long holiday weekend.
  • January MFO Ratings Posted
    Usually, I track maximum drawdown across market cycles or other periods of interest, but I found looking by calendar years fun.
    Most years, investors in the S&P 500 can expect drawdowns as much as 10%.
    More details here.
  • Climate change Investing -
    @BenWP- RE: "stampede to invest" - that is a direct quote from the Bloomberg article, not me . 1.5 Degrees is an Alliance Bernstein Private Placement fund.I am looking for similar vehicles.
    @LewisBraham. The article quoted 35 trillion moving into this space - though it reads like that might include all "ESG". Who are the leaders ?
  • HNDL ETF now has a sibling (FIVR)
    Here's a clickable LINK if anyone cares to explore FIVR.
    So far I've been quite happy with the performance of HNDL.
  • What moves are you considering for 2022?
    @gmarceau : By loaded up ,from your post, more than 5% of your portfolio ?
    I bought a toe hold , less than 1% of my portfolio in GPGEX. It's nice to get in on the ground floor, but some worthy question have been ask about this new addition by the MFO community . The limited AUM was good news to hear.
    Enjoy the ride, Derf
    Hi Derf, yes much more than 5%, but the fund will probably have similar performance to the global reach, but the small asset base was the most attractive part.
    The one concern I had was that it’s a sort of a best ideas fund and those never become the top performer in any fund company’s roster.
    I saw it as a cheaper small micro global option, low AUM, set and forget. They’re growing the next generation at GP, so wouldn’t mind taking my mind off of a lot of my different funds.
  • What moves are you considering for 2022?
    My portfolio's value is near its all-time high.
    Due to age and circumstances, my primary strategic goal is to reduce equity risk.
    A secondary goal is to decrease interest-rate risk.
    Approximately 25% of the portfolio is currently allocated to fixed-income.
    My target fixed-income allocation is 30%.
    Today I executed the following transactions in my 401(k):
    Exchanged some of Vanguard 500 (CIT) for Wells Fargo Stable Value Fund
    Exchanged all of DODIX for Wells Fargo Stable Value Fund
    Next week I'll execute several trades in my Roth IRA to complete the rebalancing process.
  • Climate change Investing -
    I am interested in this space - Would love to get some input - specifically - the advantage or dis-advantage ( beside the cost ) of 1.5 Degrees- a long/short fund or alternatives in this space.
    https://info.bernstein.com/l/546252/2021-11-18/ykz3z
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-30/hurricane-force-gusts-fan-colorado-wildfires-force-evacuations
    1.5 Degrees aims to make high single digit returns by focusing on climate change opportunities and companies benefitting or losing out from events such as rising sea levels, shifting consumer preferences and increased greenhouse gas emissions, according to the document, which didn’t mention how much the strategy was seeking to raise.
    The fund joins a stampede among managers to integrate sustainability goals in their strategies as demand for such products booms. So-called environmental, social and governance investing has turned into a $35 trillion industry, providing a fertile ground for them to raise assets.
  • Drawdown Plan in (Early) Retirement
    For what it’s worth, we are spending much less in retirement so far than 4% annually. COVID has made it difficult to meet our spending “goals” because it’s so difficult and risky to travel, eat out and participate in other forms of entertainment. In January, I will have been retired 5 years and my wife 7 years, and we have yet to spend one dime of our retirement savings. We’ve been getting by just fine from our pensions, my wife’s social security and modest withdrawals from taxable savings. I’m holding off drawing from my SS because so far we simply haven’t needed it.
  • HNDL ETF now has a sibling (FIVR)
    I know there have been some previous discussions here about Strategy Shares Nasdaq 7HANDL Index ETF (HNDL). They've now launched a tamer (?) sibling Nasdaq 5HANDL Index ETF (FIVR) that targets a 5% yield vs. HNDL's 7%.
    www.etf.com/sections/daily-etf-watch/new-multi-asset-etf-targets-5-yield
    Any thoughts on FIVR vs. other options such as multi-asset funds investing in traditional dividend-paying stocks, preferreds, convertibles REITs, and so forth? Happy New Year, everyone!
  • Drawdown Plan in (Early) Retirement
    It is complicated. I am not sure why there is so much focus on the "4%" rule when the IRS forces people over 75 to remove 4.07% of your retirement accounts. By 80 it is up to almost 5%.
    While I am irritated by a lot of the smugness at American Association for individual investors, one of their key points is "if the SP500 is within 5% of all time high, take money out of equities; if it is not, take money out of something else"
  • Is there a site that tracks fund buys/sells over time?
    Try Microsoft Access Database. I imported excel spreadsheet into the program and it shows the percentage of each contribution of how much it made or lost since I started investing in 2005. I’ve never used the database before so it will be interesting on what I can do with it
  • Just one day, but more "red" than I've seen for awhile.....
    Since the start of the Covid pandemic, hospitalizations/deaths follow a wave of infections by about 2 weeks or so. This has happened several times over the past 2 years in the earlier 4 waves. By mid-January, we'll have a pretty good idea of the scope and severity of this most current wave. Since many healthcare facilities are struggling currently with capacity, it may get ugly. The conversations where I live is, don't get sick....with anything. There might not be a bed for you.
    So...I'm actually a bit surprised the markets have held up as well as they have given the widespread nature of this most current, the 5th wave. January may be bumpy. I hope not.