Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • All that glitters is not gold
    Mark Twain references that fact in the ending of one of his short stories.
    Nasty day Thursday if exposed to gold, silver or the miners. Gold fell about $40 from near $1800 to below $1760. Silver is reported to have lost twice as much on a same day percentage basis. Miners overall were off 4-5% for the day. And the dollar strengthened, pushing the Swiss Franc to its lowest value in relation to the dollar of 2021. BTW - PRPFX, which actually hedges pretty well against gold volatility, managed to drop about 1% Thursday. Ouch. The only bright spot is that gold has tested the $1680-$1700 level a couple times already this year and bounced back fairly quickly both times. So, just perhaps, the $1700 area represents some kind of floor.
    “Moralizing, I observed, then, that ‘all that glitters is not gold.’
    Mr. Ballou said I could go further than that, and lay it up among my treasures of knowledge, that nothing that glitters is gold. So I learned then, once for all, that gold in its native state is but dull, unornamental stuff, and that only lowborn metals excite the admiration of the ignorant with an ostentatious glitter. However, like the rest of the world, I still go on underrating men of gold and glorifying men of mica. Commonplace human nature cannot rise above that.”

    From “Roughing It” - by Mark Twain
  • Who Will Be the Next to Launch Active ETF Versions of their Mutual Funds? Predictions.
    Cannabis Growth Fund
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1587982/000139834421018858/fp0068849_497.htm
    497 1 fp0068849_497.htm
    Cannabis Growth Fund
    Class I Shares
    (Ticker Symbol: CANIX)
    A series of Investment Managers Series Trust II (the “Trust”)
    Supplement dated September 16, 2021, to the
    Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”),
    each dated June 1, 2021, as supplemented.
    After the close of business on September 24, 2021, the Cannabis Growth Fund (the “Fund”) will reorganize into an exchange-traded fund, the Cannabis Growth ETF (the “ETF”) (the “Reorganization”). In preparation for the closing of the Reorganization, the last day to purchase shares of the Fund will be September 20, 2021. If you would like to redeem your Fund shares prior to the closing of the Reorganization, redemption orders must be placed by the close of business on September 23, 2021. Direct shareholders can redeem their Fund shares by calling 1-888-885-0588. If you hold your Fund shares with a broker, please contact your broker to redeem your Fund shares. Any shares not redeemed prior to the closing of the Reorganization will be exchanged for shares of the ETF. After the closing of the Reorganization, shares of the ETF will be bought and sold in the secondary market at market price.
    An Information Statement/Prospectus that contains important information about the Reorganization and the ETF, including information about the ETF’s investment strategies, risks, fees and expenses, was mailed on or about August 9, 2021 to shareholders of record of the Fund as of July 7, 2021. The Fund’s Prospectus, Statement of Additional Information, annual and semi-annual reports and the Information Statement/Prospectus are available upon request and without charge by writing to the Fund c/o UMB Fund Services, Inc., 235 West Galena Street, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 53212, by calling toll-free at 1-888-885-0588, or by visiting the Fund’s website at www.cannabisgrowthfunds.com.
    Please file this Supplement with your records.
  • Senate bill could spell end to ETF tax advantage
    A couple of reference links:
    I believe this is the Melanie Waddell writing that syzygy quoted.
    Ed Slott Weighs In on House Democrats' Proposed Mega-IRA Crackdown (from ThinkAdvisor)
    The 881 page markup to the Build Back Better Act that contains the proposed backdoor Roth IRA changes:
    https://waysandmeans.house.gov/sites/democrats.waysandmeans.house.gov/files/documents/NEAL_032_xml.pdf
    Thanks to davfor for the Wyden proposal link; it contains a link to the actual text:
    https://www.finance.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Pass-through Changes Discussion Draft Legislative Text.pdf
    The part of the text that pertains to ETFs, in its entirety is:
    SEC. __17. RECOGNITION OF GAIN ON CERTAIN DISTRIBUTIONS BY REGULATED INVESTMENT COMPANIES.
    (a) IN GENERAL.—Section 852(b) is amended by striking paragraph (6).
    (b) EFFECTIVE DATE.—The amendments made by this section shall apply to taxable years beginning after December 31, 2022.
    Simplicity itself. Section 852(b)(6) gives RICs (including ETFs) special tax treatment. So striking this section takes away that special treatment. ETFs would no longer be able to divest themselves of gain without owing taxes on the gain.
  • Senate bill could spell end to ETF tax advantage
    An oft heard refrain: I just want to make sure that the small investor isn't hurt. Coincidentally, the definition used for small investor turns out to include the speaker. Though it may sound like I'm picking on BenWP here, my observation is general. Even before reading details of the proposal, I was confident that the proposed change would fall primarily on wealthier investors.
    First, because the truly little guy is insulated from capital gain taxation - until one's taxable income exceeds $40,400 (single) or $80,800 (joint), cap gains are taxed at 0%. Second, because (at least as of 2012) only 1/3 of households even had taxable investment accounts, and I think it's a safe bet that these are largely not lower income households. "It is immediately clear that household income has the strongest relationship with taxable account ownership."
    https://www.sec.gov/spotlight/fixed-income-advisory-committee/finra-investor-education-foundation-investor-households-fimsa-040918.pdf
    The in-kind transaction loophole existed for all forms of businesses (corporations, funds, etc.) since 1935. Congress began narrowing it in 1969. It was little used until ETFs came along and exploited it. It has never made sense from a tax principle perspective - cap gains cannot simply go **poof**. Logically they should either accrue to the company (RIC) or if passed through, to the recipient.
    Throughout the history of U.S. investment companies, in-kind distributions have been exempt from tax at the fund level. As Congress began to limit and finally prohibit in 1986 the tax-free distribution of appreciated property by corporations, it continued to specifically exempt open-end funds from this rule. There is scant discussion in the legislative history for the justification for this exemption or why closed-end funds were not also eligible. Perhaps the simplest explanation for the legislative silence is that when [the tax code was changed to narrow the exemption], in-kind distributions from open-end funds were rare.
    Jeffrey Colon, The Great ETF Tax Swindle: The Taxation of In-Kind Redemptions, 122 Penn St. L. Rev. 1 (2017)
    Abstract: https://ir.lawnet.fordham.edu/faculty_scholarship/722/
    Paper: https://ir.lawnet.fordham.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1721&context=faculty_scholarship
    As to the proposal, it is simplicity itself. Registered investment companies (OEFs and ETFs) are to be treated the same way as other companies. When they sell holdings, they are to recognize capital gains. Regardless of the form of the sale, i.e. regardless of whether they receive cash or fund shares in exchange for the securities they sell.
    No more special cases. No special case because they're conducting an in-kind transaction. No special case because they're an OEF or ETF rather than a CEF.
    ETFs would be expected to respond by selling their highest cost shares to the AP (authorized participant) rather than their lowest cost shares. At least if they cared about tax efficiency. That's the same method that OEFs use when raising cash to redeem shares.
    Regarding Vanguard: Even before Vanguard started selling VIPERs (Vanguard Index Participation Receipts), their index funds tended to be the most tax efficient on the market. There were many years when their broad based index funds did not distribute cap gains. The proposed change should make Vanguard funds (and ETFs) look even better relative to their competition because of demonstrated skill in minimizing taxes.
    Vanguard writes: “the ability of mutual funds and ETFs to transact securities in-kind is a longstanding practice that improves outcomes for millions of investors.” Funds could always transact in-kind.
    ETFs fundamentally rely upon this ability in order to keep market price close to NAV. The proposed change does not affect their ability to transact in-kind. OEFs sometimes rely upon this ability as well. It is reasonably well known that Sequoia not only reserves the right to redeem shares in kind, but states explicitly that it is likely to do so for redemptions above $250K. Investors benefit because funds are not forced to conduct fire sales to meet large redemptions.
    Sequoia Prospectus: It is highly likely that the Fund will pay you in securities or partly in securities if you make a redemption request (or a series of redemptions) in an amount greater than $250,000.
  • Senate bill could spell end to ETF tax advantage
    Regarding Roth conversion limits for high-earners, Congress chose to delay the limits for 10 years according to Ed Slott:
    "In order to close so-called “backdoor” Roth IRA strategies, the bill eliminates Roth conversions for both IRAs and employer-sponsored plans for single taxpayers (or taxpayers married filing separately) with taxable income over $400,000, married taxpayers filing jointly with taxable income over $450,000, and heads of households with taxable income over $425,000 (all indexed for inflation).
    “This is similar to the old $100,000 income limitation for Roth conversions that existed before 2010, except now the income limits are increased to the $400,000/$450,000 levels,” Slott explained. “Oddly though, this proposal would not be effective for 10 years. The effective date says this would apply in years after Dec. 31, 2031.”
    This change “would end Roth conversions for high-earners, but Congress still wants its conversion tax dollars. What to do?” Slott continued. “Maybe this delayed effective date shows us that Congress still needs this Roth conversion revenue so it can fill budget gaps, at least for the next 10 years. So, this provision is a non-issue for now.”
  • Robinhood Wants Younger Investors - Kicks off Campus Campaign
    “Robinhood Markets Inc., the go-to trading app for young investors, wants its user base to get even younger. The digital brokerage is kicking off a nationwide marketing campaign Wednesday that is designed to turn more college students into Robinhood customers. Robinhood will give students who sign up for brokerage accounts using their school email address $15 to trade, and enter them into a $20,000 giveaway.
    “Robinhood executives will tour campuses of community colleges and historically black colleges and universities this fall … Robinhood reported earlier this year that its median user was 31 years old and that more than half of its customers hadn’t previously had a brokerage account. Robinhood already has more than 3.8 million student customers.”

    From: The Wall Street Journal September 16, 2021
    Here’s a link, but you’ll likely need a subscription to get in
  • Senate bill could spell end to ETF tax advantage
    This bill is just in the trial balloon stage of consideration. It reportedly has support among mutual fund providers. Adoption (a long shot possibility?) would somewhat level the playing field between mutual funds and ETFs.
    ETF tax advantage
  • January MFO Ratings Posted
    Appropriately, on a day when four civilian astronauts were launched into space with a SpaceX Falcon rocket, Brad Ferguson, an ardent Elon Musk fan, discussed the origin and application of the Ferguson Metrics to identify consistent outperforming funds. Here is the Zoom session recording.
  • Vanguard Advice Select funds in registration
    Here's a deeper dive into Vanguard's three new active equity funds for PAS clients.
    Link
  • Templeton Global Bond
    I wouldn't necessarily describe VEMBX as being unique.
    However, the fund generated higher returns (5 Yr - Top 2%) with lower volatilty than its EM Bond fund peers.
    Nobody knows if VEMBX will continue to outperform in the future.
    I don't own this fund, but would put it on my list if I was considering EM bond funds.
  • Liquidity anyone?
    For my two cents ( maybe mistaken) I think that this is a twist on the argument that with deficits so high the government is squeezing out almost all the private borrowers in the economy.
    Banks park money overnight at the repo facility to ensure they have enough cash available for the next day and the treasury pays 0.05%. But many of them apparently are just flipping the money over each night, without using it for more productive loans.
    the Fed's purpose in buying bonds with created money is to increase the loans banks make to productive uses. Instead much of it is sitting on the sidelines, or in the stock market
  • David Rubinstein Interviews Ron Baron
    David Rubenstein often has interesting guests on his show.
    Link
    I watched several episodes from Season 7 (current season) the last few days.
    Episode 2: McDonald's CEO Chris Kempczinski
    Episode 3: Moderna Chairman Noubar Afeyan
    Episode 5: Reid Hoffman, LinkedIn co-founder and partner at Greylock Partners
  • January MFO Ratings Posted
    Brad Ferguson will be joining us tomorrow to discuss his methodology, 15 September, at 10:30 am Pacific. Please register here.
  • PRWCX Cuts Equity Exposure
    Yes, tnx, 'similarly' was not the exact adverb.
    In some senses the def of labile, esp under color of your recent analyses of weightings.
    >> are not all that similar. Six weeks ago, the former had 45% of its holdings in the top ten, while the latter had "only" 28%.
    Right, it ranges more widely than smaller sets, perhaps (have not checked the data); why I own / favor VONG, thanks to someone on this forum, perhaps Hank.
  • PRWCX Cuts Equity Exposure
    To compare, no pun intended, apples to apples, you need to drop Tesla since it wasn't in the original list.
    VRGWX and VFIAX are not all that similar. Six weeks ago, the former had 45% of its holdings in the top ten, while the latter had "only" 28%. Data from M*.
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/vrgwx/portfolio
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/vfiax/portfolio
    Further, because a given stock can have, say, 60% of its cap weight allocated to the growth index and 40% of its cap weight allocated to the value index, what it means when a stock has a large (or small) weight in the growth index is not straightforward. That company could be a larger (or smaller) company, or it could simply be more (or less) growthy than other stocks in the growth index.
    https://research.ftserussell.com/products/downloads/Russell-US-indexes.pdf
    Given that six weeks ago the top ten holdings of VFIAX constituted 28% of the fund, it should be clear that the five named companies (six securities) could not now comprise 41% of the S&P 500.
    Six weeks ago, those six holdings comprised 22% of VFIAX, and thus presumably of the S&P 500. As of yesterday (Sept 13), they accounted for 23% of the S&P 500. Per SlickCharts.
    It is best not to take figures on blind faith, especially when they don't pass a laugh test.
  • David Rubinstein Interviews Ron Baron
    Good interview. Don’t expect any hot investment tips. Baron’s a long-term buy and hold investor. Just a slight plug for his mutual funds at one point, (which it sounds like you can get into for as little as $500 initial plus $50 a month auto-purchase).
    UPDATED LINK (full 24 minutes).
    https://www.bing.com/videos/search?view=detail&mid=C3121E5A29A01428FE6EC3121E5A29A01428FE6E&q=utube
  • PRWCX Cuts Equity Exposure
    Yeah, jeez, as of 6w ago the mighty VONG is similarly >39% in:
    AAPL Apple Inc 10.52
    MSFT Microsoft Corp 9.87
    AMZN Amazon.com Inc 6.64
    FB Facebook Inc Class A 3.92
    GOOGL Alphabet Inc Class A 3.19
    GOOG Alphabet Inc Class C 3.05
    TSLA Tesla Inc 2.45
  • PRWCX Cuts Equity Exposure
    Some of those top holdings are just the companies I love to hate. Crap. But I can't pull out now.

    “… for those … who might be wondering, if you put a dollar into the S&P, 41 cents goes toward Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Facebook, with 59 cents going into the other 495 names.”
    Bill Fleckenstein - “
    Market Rap” (paid subscription) 9/14/21
    Exactly why I hate market-cap weightings in funds and indices!!
    No fund I own holds 100% stuff I agree with, but I am more than comfortable with Giroux's team and PRWCX's investing style to rest easy while sitting on a large slug of it.