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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Preparing Your Portfolio for Inflation
    Josh Brown Piece:
    On the economic and investment side, the quants at BofA are thinking that... over 60% of the bank’s analysts see rising prices in their respective coverage universe. One of BofA’s top strategists, Michael Hartnett, is talking about 2020 being the secular bottom for rates and inflation.
    and,
    ... a whole lot of fiscal stimulus and monetary stimulus, too. But here we are, at the big, fat middle part of an economic expansion with rising prices, capex growth, increasing demand for skilled labor and a massive, generational infrastructure bill on the way.
    whats-changed-for-now-and-whats-changed-forever
    Recent Michael Hartnett Pieces:
    The value of U.S. financial assets are now six times the size of gross domestic product. “Wealth gains obscene, but extreme asset bubbles natural end to nihilistic bull markets of past decade,” he said.
    And longer-term drivers of disinflation were poised to wane, too. Fiscal authorities were now more open to increased spending and central banks were now explicitly targeting higher inflation as a goal.
    Hartnett anticipated the coming decade could show similarities to the late 60s and early 70s when inflation and interest rates started to lift off as investors questioned the combination of easy fiscal and monetary policy.
    So what does this all mean?
    First of all, investors will have to get used to a world of lower investment returns, while dealing with an upturn in volatility, said Hartnett.
    And the ravages of inflation could turn negative returns in fixed-income into the norm. Instead, investors should look to take shelter in assets that tend to thrive during period of price pressures such as commodities.
    inflation-rebound-means-40-year-bull-market-in-bonds-is-over-says-bofa
    sell-the-vaccine-in-response-to-violent-inflationary-price-action-bank-of-america-strategist-says
  • Stimulus money, how does a family know the proper amount has been paid?
    I agree with @MrRuffles that if one hasn't gotten EIP1 or EIP2 by now, the checks likely aren't coming. The money can be claimed as a Recovery Rebate Credit on one's 2020 tax return.
    Timing on filing is another matter. Generally, file early if one is expecting a refund, and delay filing if one is going to have to pay. (Though one can't extend the payment due date by requesting a filing extension.)
    This simplifies things. It doesn't matter whether you're getting some credits (including the Recovery Rebate Credit). What matters is the bottom line. If, after accounting for all your tax credits you still owe money to the IRS, hold off paying quickly. You too can earn 0.01% on that money in your pocket for an extra month.
    2021 is a different story. Say that your 2019 AGI is $80K (individual), 2020 is $75K, and 2021 is projected to be $80K. Based on the 2019 AGI you would get nothing for EIP3.
    Let's assume the IRS has already processed you for EIP3. So it's too late to rush to file your 2020 return. Not to worry, the IRS will follow up with EIP4 later this year. It will be an incremental payment if you should get more based on your 2020 return than on your 2019 return (EIP3). But to get an EIP4 payment, you must have filed your 2020 return by Aug 15th (three months after the filing deadline this year of May 15th).
    Suppose instead you ask for an extension and don't file your 2020 return until after Aug 15th. Then you won't get any payment based on 2020 income. Not EIP3, not EIP4, and not a Recovery Rebate Credit on your 2021 tax return. That's based on your 2021 AGI. Given the hypothetical AGIs above, you won't see any money.
    So there could still be a reason to file your 2020 tax return in a reasonable amount of time, i.e. don't delay past Aug 15 if your largest possible payment is based on your 2020 AGI.
    (I expect that the vast majority of tax filers won't be in the situation of losing money because of such fine points.)
  • Goldman Analysts Claim Inhumane Working Conditions
    Not that I agree, but I thought this was the norm for young investment bankers? Anyway, saw this article on David Solomon the Goldman CEO. I literally LOL with this line:
    "It was also last summer that Solomon was lunching at a Hamptons eatery when he found himself approached by a junior banker who wanted to say “Hi” to the big boss. The underling went so far as to point out that she was there with some of his colleagues — on a work day.
    The encounter reportedly annoyed Solomon, who repeated the story for months afterward as a prime example in his argument against remote work during the pandemic. But some couldn’t help but note the irony that Solomon was also having lunch in the Hamptons instead of toiling away at his desk."
    https://nypost.com/2021/03/15/david-solomons-lavish-lifestlye-irks-goldman-sachs-underlings/
  • A Case for Emerging Markets to Re-Emerge
    You're doing very well. Congratulations. I'm only 11% foreign, and mostly NOT EM. After just looking, I see my PRIDX is 0.32% Emerg. Europe, 1.78% Africa/Middle East, 15.30% in Emerg. Asia and 4.55% in Latin America. Also, 4.17% in "Australasia." Anyone who knows the map could figure that this means Australia, maybe NZ, maybe the Pacific Islands: Saipan? (U.S. flag flies there, though.) Samoa? But not American Samoa: belongs to the US, too. Then there's The Marshalls, the Solomons. Pitcairn's Island.... Diego Garcia is in the INDIAN Ocean. Only thing there is a military base, I understand... so. Pretty un-specific. Leaving out many locations. (What could be the GDP of Pitcairn's Island, anyhow? Eh?)
  • A Case for Emerging Markets to Re-Emerge
    I hope so. My two EM: FSEAX +6.15% and ARTYX +3.79% and I wish that was my cost basis 1/1/2021 but it was not. Counting on these two to finish 2021 strong.
  • Can anyone please share if any of their Mut Fund holdings are in the green lately?
    I'll interpret "lately" to mean 1 Week, 1 Month and YTD.
    If we were to consider "Total Return 12 months", everything looks fantastic, since the whole market was bouncing off the bottom.
    A couple of mine that have done okay (1 Week, 1 Month and YTD)
    FISMX (+0.66%, +3.29%, +8.75%)
    FLPSX (+0.27%, +5.89%, +13.94%)
    David
  • Why in the World Would You Own Bond (Funds) When…
    @royal4 - that’s a fair question: “ What happens if in 2-2.5 years the SP500 index drops 20-30% and then takes 3-5 years to recover?”
    I ask myself that question regularly.
    But another way to look at it... how many times in history has the S&P 500 dropped 20-30 percent? The next question is... and when it has... how many times has it taken 3-5 years to recover? When I’ve examined that... I’ve found scarcity and not regularity. That gives me comfort.
  • Why in the World Would You Own Bond (Funds) When…
    Every time I see a new thread about bonds I smile. Yes, I'm the exception and have done it for years. I retired in 2018, we need only 4% (maybe less) including inflation to keep our living standard for the next several decades. I still want to make 6% with SD < 3. I'm mainly a bond OEF trader, probably close to 90% are from bond OEFs. I have invested mostly in 2-3 funds which means I only need 2 great performing bond funds. So far I made much more in the last than the goal + SD=2.5%. YTD already several % up.
    More:
    1) All the money is invested, no cash. Only in high risk market I'm out. In the last 10-11 years I was out under 2%. Before that I was in all the time.
    2) Since the beginning in 1995 I hardly used alternative funds, definitely not for more than several weeks or a big %. I keep is simple, stocks, bond, and allocation funds.
    3) Many average Joe retirees that have enough can do the following. They have some cash flow (from SS + distribution + pension + can sell something), in good times they can sell stocks and in bad times they can sell some bonds. Some of these bonds should be a ballast for stocks which means in market meltdown they will go up or have minimal losses.
    4) Cash? I never believed in cash since the beginning even in retirement. You can have 3-6 months of living expenses and can sell something (per #3 above) 3-4 times annually. I never had an emergency I couldn't handle. I have used credit cards, then I have several thousands in cash and I can always sell my funds and get money in 2 days.
  • Can anyone please share if any of their Mut Fund holdings are in the green lately?
    @Mav123 To your question: "Does anyone here invest in dividend-producing portfolios? "
    Out of curiosity, I placed these 4 dividend oriented etf's against PRWCX.
    PRWCX , DVY, SCHD, VIG, SDY 5 year chart, total return FYI, I thought you could open the link, but you will have to plug the tickers manually (or become a premium member).
    I do not suggest any of these are fully comparable in their methods or holdings; and I do not invest in any of these at this time. This list is a random selection of some dividend stock etf's.
    Ranked by assets, as of March 8 (S&P 500 yield as of March 9: 1.5%):
    Note: PRWCX indicates a trailing 12 month yield of 1%
    1. Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), $214.5 billion in assets, 1.4% annualized yield.
    2. Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG), $53 billion, 1.6%.
    3. Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (VYM), $33.7 billion, 2.9%.
    4. Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD), $19.6 billion, 2.9%.
    5. Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT), $18.3 billion, 1.6%.
    6. SPDR S&P Dividend ETF (SDY), $17.9 billion, 2.6%.
    7. iShares Select Dividend ETF (DVY), $16.7 billion, 3.2%.

    Thank you, Catch22. Now, we are talking .. calculated comparison.
    I live stockcharts very much, have been with them for 4 yrs. the chart you showed, I still didn't know existed, thank you for pointing out. I use RRG tool https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/rrg/?s=prwcx,divo,dvy,schd,vig,sdy&b=$SPX&p=w&y=1&t=5&f=tail,d
    This is how I was able to narrow in to MSSMX in time. Now...what we can also do is add these to portfoliovisualizer. , free or get 2 weeks free trial and see beta and sortino ratios. DVY has been leading lately according to RRG (SCHD is leading too.) Rotation is taking place to dividend payers, lately. image https://ibb.co/x8znYQq
  • Baillie Gifford manager to retire
    It's not uncommon for investment management firms to have separate teams for different strategies. For example, here are RW Baird's equity teams:
    https://www.bairdassetmanagement.com/baird-equity-asset-management/team#GrowthTeam
    Those divide along growth/value/int'l lines. For a company like Baillie Gifford that focuses on growth, its dividing lines are finer. Growth: large cap, or small cap, or all cap; "rapid" growth: broad or concentrated. Five different int'l teams with sometimes subtly different styles.
    HAIGX pulls from the all cap growth team, while VWIGX and BGESX pull from the rapid growth (broad) team, and BTLSX is managed by the rapid growth (concentrated) team.
    Here's BG's blurb on its five international equity strategies and teams;
    https://www.bailliegifford.com/en/usa/professional-investor/literature-library/funds/mutual-funds/baillie-gifford-international-equity-strategies/
    While some of the difference between HAIGX and VWIGX comes from Schroeders, much of it is due to the different BG teams managing the funds. You can test this by looking at the overlap between VWIGX and BGESX. The major (>2%) holdings of VWIGX that aren't in BGESX are Tesla (5.51%) and Illumina (2.30%). VWIGX has 13 holdings above 2%. All data from M* instant x-ray.
    Likewise, you can look at the overlap between VWIGX and SCIEX (for the Schroeder team). The pure Schroeder fund doesn't hold Tesla or Illumina. So maybe these holdings in VWIGX came from the Schroeder team, thoujgh Schroeders is less growth oriented than BG. We may never know.
    I'm glad you brought up HAIGX, because it serves to highlight an obscure attribute. Like many fund families, Harbor funds hire an in-house management company (Harbor Capital Advisors, Inc.) to manage the funds, to select and oversee the subadviser third party management firms (here, Baille Gifford Overseas Ltd.), and in the case of multiple subadvisers, to decide who manages what percentage of the funds.
    2021 Prospectus, p. 41 (pdf p. 44)
    When a Vanguard fund is managed by Vanguard, it hires The Vanguard Group as the management company. Though unlike Harbor, when a Vanguard fund outsources the day-to-day management of the fund it typically outsources the full management job. For these funds, the third parties are not subadvisors, but the actual advisors. The oversight responsibility is retained by the fund's board, as is the responsibility of deciding which advisory firm gets to manage how much of the fund.
    2020 Prospectus, p. 16 (pdf p. 18)
    This also means that what happens to VWIGX when Anderson retires in a year is up to the Vanguard fund's board. It could, for example, live with the remaining less experienced (by 16 or more years) BG fund managers while allocating a greater fraction of the portfolio to Schroeders. In that case, one might say that Schroeders would be the successor to Anderson.
    For example, this is what Vanguard did when Barrow retired from Barrow, Hanley, Mewhinney & Strauss:
    Vanguard had been slowly redistributing Windsor II’s assets to other subadvisers in the years since BHMS founder Jim Barrow, who had managed the fund since its 1985 inception, announced he was stepping down at the end of 2015. At the time of Barrow’s retirement, BHMS managed about 60% of the overall portfolio. That number was nearly halved over the past four years, with the firm managing 37% of Windsor II’s assets at last report.
    https://www.adviserinvestments.com/adviser-fund-update/vanguard-manager-firing-fails-to-fix-funds-faults/
    A bit more on BG's international growth strategy and portfolio construction group:
    https://www.bailliegifford.com/en/usa/professional-investor/literature-library/institutional-only-literature/philosophy-and-process/international-growth-philosophy-and-process/
  • Can anyone please share if any of their Mut Fund holdings are in the green lately?
    @Mav123 - adding to @catch22's response I do invest in my own collection of a dividend 'growth' portfolio. It's composed primarily of dividend champions and aristocrats. I built it primarily for the income AND of stocks that I felt I would be comfortable holding forever. (Note: stuff happens so we both know that ain't true). It represents roughly 50% of my total portfolio.
    Anyway, my portfolio has delivered that income and income growth in spades. It has also produced a comfortable total return BUT one has to be quite patient when selecting buy points. Also, I don't use any of the ETF's listed in catch's post nor any of the dividend focused mutual funds. The yields are too low and I don't like paying an ER when I can build my own fund, collect the income and pay myself.
    I did hold a position in DGRO (iShares Dividend Growth) which I recently swapped for DIVO (Amplify CWP Enhanced Dividend Income). It's just a way for me to diversify the sources of the dividend income I collect by way of sector choices. I own no financial stocks and only one energy stock.
    Thank you for the performance comparison and composition of your portfolio, 50% in dividend companies. I held DIVO since late last year and sold it, it just wasn't moving, sideways or down.
  • Can anyone please share if any of their Mut Fund holdings are in the green lately?
    I'm rather certain that over the long haul, you'd have reaped more profit from PRWCX than dividend-paying stocks. For years, the big Canadian banks have been my alternative fantasy portfolio. 90% of deposits in Canada belong to those big banks. There are only 5 or 6 of them. High dividends. Low P/E ratios. I would not go to BMO Bank of Montreal now, after recently learning here of their unethical shenanigans toward investors. But the others? Yes. My two favorites are CM and BNS. You're holding 15K in cash? Maybe you're very, very risk averse? If you just want the assurance of investing in solid companies that are not going to fold up and go bankrupt, and you crave the dividend income, then go for it. Just don't forget never to put all your eggs in one basket. Eh? CIBC: https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnys/cm/quote
    Scotiabank: https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnys/bns/quote
    But they are riding high, right now. EVERYTHING is riding high, or near all-time highs, even including the recent small (so far) drop-off. The Market's had a tremendous run-up since March of 2020. Wait for another pullback.
    :)
    Thank you, I'm on the same page with you about Canadian names, banks. For some reason, Canadian equities are more quality-oriented, and less P/E (less expensive).
    As far as risk-averse,...timing is (may not be the best personal investment quality) I invested in MSSMX (as in since the 2nd of January through mid-Feb, up 30%). Now in cash.
  • Can anyone please share if any of their Mut Fund holdings are in the green lately?
    @Mav123 - adding to @catch22's response I do invest in my own collection of a dividend 'growth' portfolio. It's composed primarily of dividend champions and aristocrats. I built it primarily for the income AND of stocks that I felt I would be comfortable holding forever. (Note: stuff happens so we both know that ain't true). It represents roughly 50% of my total portfolio.
    Anyway, my portfolio has delivered that income and income growth in spades. It has also produced a comfortable total return BUT one has to be quite patient when selecting buy points. Also, I don't use any of the ETF's listed in catch's post nor any of the dividend focused mutual funds. The yields are too low and I don't like paying an ER when I can build my own fund, collect the income and pay myself.
    I did hold a position in DGRO (iShares Dividend Growth) which I recently swapped for DIVO (Amplify CWP Enhanced Dividend Income). It's just a way for me to diversify the sources of the dividend income I collect by way of sector choices. I own no financial stocks and only one energy stock.
  • Finding the Right Benchmark for Your Portfolio
    Our benchmark remains FBALX. Yes, a bit "hot" for many in retirement, as an investment. Though not invested in the fund in 2008, it took a big hit, too; as with many other 70/30% funds. We have been able to get close to the 15 year return of 8.48, which has changed from about an average of 8.2% annualized as 2020 returns bumped this number. We attempt to get close to 7.5-8% annualized. 'Course, as expected, not unlike others; we've had the very good years get whacked by the poop years. Our largest portfolio benefit was to escape the 2000 and 2008 melts. Not fun to "make up" a portfolio loss from an actual sell. We have not yet decided whether FBALX will be a major percent holding when we stop meddling with our holdings. Our active would become a psuedo passive with FBALX management of the money.

    YTD, 1-Year, 3-Year, 5-Year, 10-Year, 15-Year, Since Inception (7 periods time frame)
    Returns 3.78% 59.15% 14.23% 13.68% 11.03% 8.48% 9.76%
    Category Ranking % 21 32 7 4 3 4 7
    # of funds category 695 697 664 639 571 411 300
  • Can anyone please share if any of their Mut Fund holdings are in the green lately?
    @Mav123 To your question: "Does anyone here invest in dividend-producing portfolios? "
    Out of curiosity, I placed these 4 dividend oriented etf's against PRWCX.
    PRWCX , DVY, SCHD, VIG, SDY 5 year chart, total return
    I do not suggest any of these are fully comparable in their methods or holdings; and I do not invest in any of these at this time. This list is a random selection of some dividend stock etf's.
    Ranked by assets, as of March 8 (S&P 500 yield as of March 9: 1.5%):
    Note: PRWCX indicates a trailing 12 month yield of 1%
    1. Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), $214.5 billion in assets, 1.4% annualized yield.
    2. Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG), $53 billion, 1.6%.
    3. Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (VYM), $33.7 billion, 2.9%.
    4. Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD), $19.6 billion, 2.9%.
    5. Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT), $18.3 billion, 1.6%.
    6. SPDR S&P Dividend ETF (SDY), $17.9 billion, 2.6%.
    7. iShares Select Dividend ETF (DVY), $16.7 billion, 3.2%.
  • Why in the World Would You Own Bond (Funds) When…
    SP500 Index for money needed in 3 years?! What happens if in 2-2.5 years the SP500 index drops 20-30% and then takes 3-5 years to recover? You're going to be selling at the worse time. It's been so long people are starting to forget what can happen... most crashes/bear markets don't end as fast as 2020 did. I don't know, maybe that's the new normal fast down and fast back up since everyone carries the stock market around on their phone now.
  • Finding the Right Benchmark for Your Portfolio
    I don’t have time to run an accuracy check of everything this M* contributor claims. So please don’t hold me accountable. But I do agree with her that for some (myself included) using a benchmark can be helpful, as long as the risk / reward profile fits with your own. As the author asserts, this can be an index / combination of indexes or a mutual fund / combination of funds.
    Morningstar Article
    As a 25+ year investor with TRP I’ve generally used one or two of their funds for this purpose. For years my benchmark / tracking fund was their 40/60 retirement fund TRRIX. Beginning this year it flipped to their PRSIX - a nearly identical fund, but with a 5% weighting in a hedge fund. Performance wise they’ve also been nearly identical over the years.
    The value of benchmarking is that over time (months / years) you arrive at an understanding of how your portfolio performs relative to the benchmark. If you find you’re deviating a lot more than you like it’s easy to modify holdings until your performance falls more in line with your tracker. There will always be exceptions, of course. Ideally you’d like to keep volatility (especially on the downside) similar to or below that of the tracker while enjoying somewhat superior overall performance. It’s a process that evolves over years and never really stops.
    Friday, my combined portfolio gained .07% - one of the dullest days I can remember. However, my tracker, PRSIX, gained just .05%. IMHO that’s reason to be cheerful.
  • Can anyone please share if any of their Mut Fund holdings are in the green lately?
    "...In the green lately?" I'll assume you mean year-to-date.
    BRUFX (Allocation fund, same category as PRWCX and DODBX, for example:) +5.59%
    PRDSX +5.38%. (Small-caps. Streaky, hot or cold.)
    BONDS: PTIAX is my worst performer so far in 2021. It's down by -1.39%. I'm not worried.
  • Can anyone please share if any of their Mut Fund holdings are in the green lately?
    I'm rather certain that over the long haul, you'd have reaped more profit from PRWCX than dividend-paying stocks. For years, the big Canadian banks have been my alternative fantasy portfolio. 90% of deposits in Canada belong to those big banks. There are only 5 or 6 of them. High dividends. Low P/E ratios. I would not go to BMO Bank of Montreal now, after recently learning here of their unethical shenanigans toward investors. But the others? Yes. My two favorites are CM and BNS. You're holding 15K in cash? Maybe you're very, very risk averse? If you just want the assurance of investing in solid companies that are not going to fold up and go bankrupt, and you crave the dividend income, then go for it. Just don't forget never to put all your eggs in one basket. Eh? CIBC: https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnys/cm/quote
    Scotiabank: https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnys/bns/quote
    But they are riding high, right now. EVERYTHING is riding high, or near all-time highs, even including the recent small (so far) drop-off. The Market's had a tremendous run-up since March of 2020. Wait for another pullback.
    :)