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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • CRDBX - Conquer Risk Defensive Bull fund
    I would consider this investing strategy if it was an etf;however, with $50 tf and 5k minimum investment,not at this time.
  • Inflation Is Real Enough to Take Seriously
    TIPS attempt to predict future inflation rates:
    with inflation, we have a really easy way to see what the market expects inflation to look like through time. By looking at the spread between the yields of TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities – basically treasury bonds that adjust based on inflation) and Treasury bonds of the same maturity, we can see how much people are willing to pay to remove inflation risk. The difference between those two yields is what the market expects inflation to look like over the life of the bond.
    image
    link:
    occams-inflation
  • Is it smart to for retirees to get out of the stock market entirely?
    So it's clear it's chiefly a mental health thing for some --- instead of deciding anything, you can (have to only) talk with someone and be done.
    If you can diy and leave alone with a clear head and low enough anxiety to get through the day, obviously the biggest if of all, you could do FZROX at zero ER and FXNAX at 0.025% 50-50 and then try and forget all about it.
  • China's Crackdown on Big Tech Causing Stocks to Crash
    One type of Chinese tech stock got really killed yesterday, the companies offering after-school tutoring, the biggest of which is TAL. Declines of 65% were seen after the Party announced it might move to regulate or curtail such academic instruction. Korea went through the same type of educational reform quite a number of years ago. Wealthy families were paying exorbitant fees to tutors to help their kids get into college. In Japan and Korea, and possibly China, entrance to a university is the greatest hurdle. It is widely recognized that the quality of education in universities leaves something to be desired and that once admitted, students don’t have to work very hard to get a degree. The CCP can appear to be limiting elitism while at the same time taking control of companies that might not hew the Party line. Government intervention is mentioned as a risk factor in the prospective of EM funds, but this example is striking. I was expecting the Kristian Heugh managed funds, that have been big holders of the tutoring companies, to take a nosedive yesterday, but only MSAUX had an outsized loss of +4%.
  • CRDBX - Conquer Risk Defensive Bull fund
    CRDBX Conquer Risk Defensive Bull fund - interesting new vehicle, in that it shifts over to Cash on occasion. You can see that if you look at a chart. It is run by a Fund Mgr who focuses on quant trading systems.
    Its available at FIDO, but with a $50 TF. When not in cash, its very volatile and it generates higher returns. Will that really continue is the $100M question.
    I'll stick with the much more boring CTFAX fund for my "thermostat" holding, but CRDBX could be fun for a small allocation. It goes on my watchlist.
  • Is it smart to for retirees to get out of the stock market entirely?
    I would not want to do that myself, but I have thought it would be the best arrangement for my wife if I go first, and I have told our advisor that.
    Vanguard offers this for .3% (that's 0.3%) as well as access to Admiral shares. Minimum of $50K to start.
    wealth-management/services
  • Is it smart to for retirees to get out of the stock market entirely?
    What stillers said.
    OP --- silly question, silly answer, rich-enough couple writes in ... why? Mattress sale?
    Otherwise clickbait --- nobody learns anything new, only confirmation of whatever.
    I had to think about this - and I read YouTube comments, they are all cryptic - at best. Anyway, could this be real? They are 100% stocks & they are considering going to 0% stocks, 0% bonds & zero annuities. All Peter the Planner can offer is: “ Talk to a licensed professional about your options. But yes, you can absolutely stop subjecting your nest egg to investment markets.”
    My response would be something along the lines of - taxable or tax deferred?
    If taxable, minimize taxes to the extent possible while getting to 50/50 or 50/25/25. And yes, 100/0/0 is making all of us anxious (and we don’t even know you). But you could have a large chunk in Puritan or Wellington. And then a chunk in FADMX or some equivalent bond fund.
    Between the 2 of you, you might need 10+ years of assisted living at $70k+ /year so don’t think you’ll never need that money.
    All caveats apply.
  • TIAA brokerage accounts
    To see how these worked and what was available, it was necessary for me to open an account. TIAA does make some additional funds (or their institutional share class) available NTF. But there are so many oddities that you must really want something they offer to go through the effort of working with these accounts.
    TIAA IRAs are structured as annuities with a brokerage window. So when transferring cash in, it technically goes through the annuity into the brokerage account. More importantly, I believe this means that one cannot transfer assets in or out in kind.
    In order to actually have access to the annuity funds (mostly CREF funds), you have to have some relationship with TIAA's employer plans. You might have a 403(b) with them yourself, or you might be related to someone who does. If not, then while you can open the IRA annuity with TIAA, you won't be able to invest on the annuity side.
    In order to get a brokerage window, TIAA will "qualify" you. This makes no sense to me. I could understand TIAA "protecting" you from yourself if this were an employer plan, where the employer has liability. But we're talking IRAs here. When one goes to, say Schwab, one opens a brokerage IRA, period. No qualifications.
    As part of that qualifying process I had to declare how much (roughly) I expected to put into the IRA and upload a statement showing the outside account from which the assets would be transferred.
    It took three days for the brokerage window to be up and running. (I haven't funded the account.)
    The short term trading period for NTF funds appears to be six months. On the plus side, the min investment for a fund is $500 unless the fund requires more. The fund screener (not accessible until you have a brokerage window open) won't tell you whether a fund (or share class) is open or closed. You have to do research on your own or call TIAA and ask.
    I checked on a couple of popular funds here:
    PRWCX - it would have a $1K min in an IRA and $2.5K in a taxable account (same as Fidelity), but of course it is closed. I had to ask.
    CQTRX - $500 min (TIAA brokerage min); this has a slightly lower ER than COTZX which is NTF at Vanguard
    GLIFX - $500 min in IRA (TIAA brokerage min); NTF
  • Osterweis Strategic Income - OSTIX
    I owned OSTIX for many many years, and M* chose to place it in the multisector bond category during those years, even though it held almost exclusively high yield bonds. ... During those years, its portfolio looks almost identical to what it holds today. However, a couple of years ago, M* chose to move OSTIX from the multisector bond category to the High Yield Bond category...
    Perceptions of time are often nonlinear (elongated, compressed, etc.) It was further back, some time in the last couple of months of 2013 when M* moved OSTIX from the multisector bond (MU) category to the High Yield Bond (HY) category.
    On the M* page below, click on the "Expanded View" tab to see all of the past ten years and how the fund was classified in each of those years.
    http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=OSTIX
    Fortunately, the Wayback Machine took a snapshot of the M* fund portfolio page as of Oct 31, 2013. The portfolio data on that page is dated Sept 30, 2013. It shows that the last time OSTIX was placed in the multisector bond category, an eighth of the bonds were rated AAA. IMHO that's not a portfolio that's "almost exclusively high yield bonds".
    By the same token, that strikes me as a significant difference from today's portfolio, where only 2.35% of the bonds are investment grade, and none above BBB.
    http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/summary?t=OSTIX&region=usa&culture=en-US
    I'm not very familiar with this fund, so all I'll say about the strategy (having just looked at a few snapshots over time and read the strategy section of its prospectus) is that I'm inclined to agree that its strategy hasn't changed over time. But ... that strategy may led it to begin investing "almost exclusively [in] high yield bonds" some time after the stock market took off post GFC. Same strategy, changed market conditions, changed classification.
  • Is it smart to for retirees to get out of the stock market entirely?
    Everyone is different. The "bucket" approach has alot of followers, although it is hard to track down M* Christine Benz's original articles anymore.
    Still, from a purely intellectual basis, it makes sense to set up priorities
    1) Money to live on. The amount you keep in cash depends on how much you want to be able to spend and how necessary it is, but it's purpose to to keep you from selling equities at a market bottom.
    Then you have to decide how long the bottom will last. Using the longest bear market since my college years, 3/24/2000, it took seven years for the SP500 to recover.
    1/11/1973 to 7/16/1980 was 7.5 years.
    So I think five years may not be enough, although if interest rates were higher, you could count on replenishing this account with dividends and interest.
    2) Everything else ie equities
  • Time to sell or buy ?
    @wxman123
    Interesting EFT...an ETF fund of ETF funds...I charted HNDL against VWINX which appears to have a similar bond/equity mix...obviously not the same sectors. HNDL overweights Tech, Energy and Communication Tech.
    image
    Read about HNDL's methodology on its webpage, it's more than a static allocation fund like AOM or AOK. Who knows how it will perform over the long-term but it handled the covid crises quite well. It's what I'm buying when I buy these days.
  • Time to sell or buy ?
    @wxman123
    Interesting EFT...an ETF fund of ETF funds...I charted HNDL against VWINX which appears to have a similar bond/equity mix...obviously not the same sectors. HNDL overweights Tech, Energy and Communication Tech.
    image
  • Osterweis Strategic Income - OSTIX
    Obviously the Diamond Hill HY team is great, I've been with them for years and very happy. My existing Brandywine fund (LFLAX) has been just as great in its own right.

    You might want to explain what you mean by "just as great in its own right." It must include metrics beyond TR but I'm not seeing how any other metrics could cause someone to see these two HYB funds as "equally great."
    TR 1yr, 3 yr, 5yr, Life
    DHHIX: 17.3%, 10.6%, 10.3%, 9.1%
    LFLAX: 5.6%, 7.0%, 5.9%, 6.2%

    LFLAX is not a HY fund. It's a multisector bond fund. Compare it to its category and you will better understand my comment.
    Oh, my bad. As the thread is about OSTIX, a HYB fund, I guess I incorrectly assumed that any comparisons/suggestions would be HYB funds.
  • Osterweis Strategic Income - OSTIX
    Obviously the Diamond Hill HY team is great, I've been with them for years and very happy. My existing Brandywine fund (LFLAX) has been just as great in its own right.

    You might want to explain what you mean by "just as great in its own right." It must include metrics beyond TR but I'm not seeing how any other metrics could cause someone to see these two HYB funds as "equally great."
    TR 1yr, 3 yr, 5yr, Life
    DHHIX: 17.3%, 10.6%, 10.3%, 9.1%
    LFLAX: 5.6%, 7.0%, 5.9%, 6.2%
    LFLAX is not a HY fund. It's a multisector bond fund. Compare it to its category and you will better understand my comment.
  • Vanguard Global Wellington
    Though VWELX may be wandering into LB now, but that is not something it did regularly in the past. It was a solid LV balanced fund for a long time, at least since I started watching it from 2005. The trend of Value managers buying growth stocks (making the fund LB) is something that has become common in the last 10 years or so. There are many value managers doing that now. One that comes to my mind is Bill Nygren of Oakmark. These managers are following Buffet's mantra (I believe it was Charlie Munger who convinced him to do that)
    “It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.” – Warren Buffett
  • 50 Essential Retirement Statistics for 2020
    Before reading @bee 's comments, I had the same question: are these expenses for a household or for an individual? Bee observes that some categories don't add up, e.g. housing. (In housing, I'm not sure that they're supposed to - one either owns or rents a home, not both)
    This dubious arithmetic extends to the bottom lines - they are much greater than the sum of the bolded components. I think that addresses @Derf 's observation that transportation isn't included. Apparently, transportation (including travel?) is not considered a "key category" (see text at top of chart).
    Note that these are means, not medians. So while the text suggests that these figures illustrate how your spending might change in retirement, I'm not so sure.
    Here's actual data from the 2018 BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey, by age. The numbers don't exactly match the table above, but they're close enough. The difference could be due to the fact that I'm looking at a column labeled "65 years and older", which is not the same as "retired".
    https://www.bls.gov/cex/tables/calendar-year/mean-item-share-average-standard-error/reference-person-age-ranges-2018.pdf
    FWIW, the mean transportation spending by a "consumer unit" with age 65+ is $7,270, while the national mean for consumer units is $9,761.
    The BLS defines a "consumer unit" as:
    either: (1) all members of a particular household who are related by blood, marriage, adoption, or other legal arrangements; (2) a person living alone or sharing a household with others or living as a roomer in a private home or lodging house or in permanent living quarters in a hotel or motel, but who is financially independent; or (3) two or more persons living together who use their income to make joint expenditure decisions. Financial independence is determined by the three major expense categories: Housing, food, and other living expenses. To be considered financially independent, at least two of the three major expense categories have to be provided entirely, or in part, by the respondent.
    https://www.bls.gov/cex/csxgloss.htm#cu
    Of course, since we're classifying by age, and a "consumer unit" consists of more than one person, we need to be clear on what "age" means for that unit. It's the age of the "reference person".
    Reference person - The first member mentioned by the respondent when asked to "Start with the name of the person or one of the persons who owns or rents the home." It is with respect to this person that the relationship of the other consumer unit members is determined.
    https://www.bls.gov/cex/csxgloss.htm#refper
  • Aerospace: Raytheon, UTC and Mach 20 Weapons
    FSDAX has tracked VIS (VINAX) pretty closely historically, but over the last 18 months FSDAX trails VINAX by 30%.
    How much of this is virus related?
    image
    Prior to the virus (looking back 5 years) FSDAX was out performing VINAX by 47% and from that perspective has retraced those gains to a March 2020 lows. Since March 2020 the two have moved in lock step again.
    image