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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Q: As you Spend Down Your Portfolio in Retirement...
    Thanks for the comments so far.
    @Old_Skeet. Does"living below your means" imply you live in the basement of your in-laws? Mine were pretty mean too. We moved out as soon as we saved enough for a down payment on a house. Now the means are moving into our house and we are "living over our means".
    With your portfolio construction, if you were to segregate out your 20% cash position, I could image the remaining 80% equating to a balanced fund (50% equity / 50% income). Is that one of your benchmarks?
    Great job on achieving a return equal to a little over 9%.

    @davidmoran, I like the idea of simplifying, but I also believe one has to keep an eye on the "cooks in the kitchen". I look for fund managers who attempt to protect on the downside while achieving most of the market's upside. PRWCX , VWINX and BRUFX are examples of this in my portfolio. VLAAX seems to fit this bill as well.
    @WABAC, hope this thread helps your headache. Your retirement income needs will come from SS, maybe a pension, maybe part time work, maybe a portion of your personal retirement accounts (RMDs or other withdrawals).
    If considering an annuity run some withdrawal scenarios with a fund like VWINX which may provide a similar withdrawal rate to an annuity and still allow you to have full control over it.
  • U.S. passive stock funds back in demand as investors seek steadier returns
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-markets-funds/u-s-passive-stock-funds-back-in-demand-as-investors-seek-steadier-returns-idUSKCN24H25V
    U.S. passive stock funds back in demand as investors seek steadier returns
    /(Reuters) - U.S. passive equity funds have started to witness inflows after a two-month hiatus as investors flock to rising equity markets, but prefer shadowing indexes to picking stocks./
    Passive outperformed active 9 out of 10 yrs
    Probably need both long term
  • Q: As you Spend Down Your Portfolio in Retirement...
    Hi @bee, This is something that my broker provides for me monthly in my account statements and covers a ten year history. By year, it contains the account starting value, how much was withdrawn (or added), investment performance, and then an ending account value. With this, I know by year what the activity was for my account values, withdraws & additions, along with investment performance simply by review of this report for each of my accounts. Thus far, even though I have not made any contributions for the past five years since I have retired I have been able to grow my principal over and above my withdrawal rate and for the ten year period with my annualized performance rate of return being a little better than nine percent. A big reason for this is that my wife and I live below our means.
    About five years before I retired I ran a 10% cash, 20% income and 70% equity asset allocation in my portfolio. For the past ten years, though, I have been moving more more towards an income generation allocation and I have now arrived at a base asset allocation of 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity. From the 20/40/40 I will tweak it a little carrying up to a plus 5% overweight (or underweight) in my income and equity areas with a rebalance threshold set at + (or -) from target allocations. I generally let cash float. Currently, as I write I am at a 15% cash, 45% income and 40% equity asset allocation.
    So, in answer to your question ... My broker provided account reports provide this information and this is something that I do not have to maintain myself.
  • Q: As you Spend Down Your Portfolio in Retirement...
    while you have your wits, you can simplify down to 5-4-3 funds or etfs, I found anyway
  • How Did Members First Find MFO? IOW What Got You Here?
    I think I found it after trying to figure out where an M* writer got off to.
    Mike Lee? Stan Lee? Used to cover ETF's at M*. Wrote a couple of pieces here.
    I don't follow ETF's. But I always enjoyed reading his stuff.

    I believe you are referring to Sam Lee who is a talented writer. Like you, I also enjoyed reading his
    articles. After he left Morningstar, he founded SVRN Asset Management.
    I checked out his site. Thanks for the tip.
    He had a couple of blog posts. But seems to have lost the yen to scribble for a wider audience.
  • Q: As you Spend Down Your Portfolio in Retirement...
    How does one keep track of their gains or losses while at the same time accounting for permanent losses from portfolio withdrawals?
    Let say I have $100K and I plan on withdrawing 4% or $4K in year one of retirement and I do that Jan 1 of that first year. My balance is now effectively $96K as a result of the distribution. To me this is a permanent loss because I am spending, not saving that 4%. Obviously my bookkeeping accounts for this withdrawal until I spend it. Maybe I buy a car with this 4% and the car goes up in value after I buy it. Maybe I blow it on Jan 2 at the casino...ouch... but these are the dynamics of spending down your portfolio. You may have something (a car worth at least $4k) or you have nothing more than a recollection of the $4K withdrawal.
    If my overall portfolio drops 10% soon after Jan 1, I now have $86.4K. My hope is that over the next 3-5 years I will recoup that 10% market loss, but I realize my withdrawal rate (4%) is now greatly impacted by my eventual portfolio balance come Jan1 of the next 3-5 years.
    Segregating 5 years worth of withdrawal might act as a drag on my potential upside performance, but might hedge my downside potential. Five years of withdrawal that include a 2% inflation adjustment would amount to $20.8K. It might be prudent to keep this amount in a conservative investment with little downside risk. That leaves a little less than $80K invested for the longer term (5 years). An average 5 year return of 5.8% would return this portfolio to its $100K value, but inflation requires a 7.9% average return in order to keep the same buying power.
    Seems to me that in retirement one needs segregate "withdrawal assets" (maybe up to 5 years worth) from "market assets". This way your withdrawals are not necessarily connected to the market's ups and downs. In 5 years, a new calculation will determine what the nest 5 years of "withdrawal assets" will amount to.
    If your are managing these dynamics in retirement please share your strategy.
  • MarketWatch: Jim Cramer ... Stock Market to Hit Skids!
    @MikeM- at least for states such as California & Virginia, the $600 additional benefit, it's the week ending July 25th is the last week, which is filed on the 26th or thereafter. I would think that would be the same for all states but I could be wrong.
    California
  • MarketWatch: Jim Cramer ... Stock Market to Hit Skids!
    While I don’t trade off of their recommendations, I do find the gunslingers CNBC has on at noon and 5PM are often worth listening to. There’s a rotating cast of six or seven traders who do a lot more than bloviate, à la Cramer. Unfortunately, the latter is on in the morning when I check the futures and overseas markets.
  • MarketWatch: Jim Cramer ... Stock Market to Hit Skids!
    Market suppose to crash this wk....that was the last wk headlines say regarding earnings...maybe up little at end of today. I was expecting blood baths and bought more corp bonds recently
    .
    Unless 50% of US Economy fully reopened again or COVID-19 flattening, hold on to the Disney Rock&Roller mountain ride. We have new bad outbreaks/ spots in India and Mexico now...
    Much Adu About Nothing? I always operate under the assumption the market could crash anytime. As a retiree it’s a prudent assumption. Anyone who worries about that all the time probably shouldn’t own equities. As I’ve lamented before, there’s rarely any discussion of risk vs personal situation in these types of discussions. “All-in” is fine if you’re 25 years old. As our life situation evolves / changes, most financial advisors advise incrementally curtailing risk. Therein lies the problem today. Those formerly “safe” alternatives (cash & bonds) yield so little. To this, David’s discussion (July Commentary) of TMSRX is spot-on. My fear (and guess) is that like many funds that have attempted hedging with less success, money flows will be late arriving and equally late departing so that investors in general won’t fare as well as they might with a longer term commitment.
    Personally, life’s more fun when markets are crashing and I can poke around in the rubble looking for really beaten up funds. However, things “feel better” when markets are on a tear and everything’s rising. Like many here, I picked up some bargains back in March / April. While I’ve done nothing with my normal static allocation, the 10-15% in speculative holdings I initiated back than has been pared to only about 6% of portfolio as of today. Ideally, I’ll get that down to near 0 just before the next 25-35% market drubbing. :)
    Re Jim Cramer. I don’t watch him; nor do I find his circus antics particularly annoying. I’d guess his calls are probably around 50% correct. Since it’s essentially “free” TV, you get what you pay for. The one I really can’t stand is Jonathan Ferro on Bloomberg in the morning. Yack. Yack. Like a chicken with his head cut off. Much exaggeration of whatever financial pin might have fallen that day. He’s enough to make me consider switching back to CNBC (except for their right wing-nuts). On the other hand, Ferro is often paired with raspy voiced Tom Keene whose inquisitive attitude and dry humor go well with morning coffee. Like coffee ... take the bitter with the sweet here.
  • MarketWatch: Jim Cramer ... Stock Market to Hit Skids!
    Market suppose to crash this wk....that was the last wk headlines say regarding earnings...maybe up little at end of today. I was expecting blood baths and bought more corp bonds recently
    .
    Unless 50% of US Economy fully reopened again or COVID-19 flattening, hold on to the Disney Rock&Roller mountain ride. We have new bad outbreaks/ spots in India and Mexico now...
  • MarketWatch: Jim Cramer ... Stock Market to Hit Skids!
    Hi @Derf, Thank you for your question on the equity style allocation. Thus far into my rebalance according to Xray, LCV 31%, MCV 7%, SCV 2% ... LCB 25%, MCB 4%, SCB 2% ... LCG 19%, MCG 7%, SCG 3%. This breaks out not quite as what I posted above but to 75% large and 25% smid by Xray. The other way is listed by fund category and some of my smid cap funds do hold some large caps in them and some of the large cap funds hold some smids.
    I'm not trimming because of Jim Cramer's call ... I'm trimming because of my barometer having the S&P 500 Index scored as extremely overbought. And, yes stocks can remain overbought for some time but I've made some good money during the rebound rally and decided now was a good time to make hay (so to speak) before it withers away.
  • MarketWatch: Jim Cramer ... Stock Market to Hit Skids!
    Hi guys, I've trimmed about 1% from my equity allocation each day thus far this week. I'm now about 14% cash, 45% income and 41% equity. Today will be the final equity trim day for me taking another 1% to the cash area of my portfolio and booking profit in the process. Remember I bought the downdraft during the recent stock market swoon. Within equities I did a rebalance of sorts leaving me heavy in the good dividend paying funds and I have been trimming mostly from my blend and growth style funds. I'm thinking now is the time for value to find traction. From a style perspective I am about 40% value, 30% blend and 30% growth with about 70% being in large caps and 30% in the smids. With this Old_Skeet keeps on ... keeping on.
    You and I have a similar mindset, though I don't believe in rebalancing. While I've not been trimming, my allocations are similar to yours, focusing on quality div payers, and I also bought stuff (some just for trades) during the spring crash.
  • An ETF That Pays 10% With 41% Future Upside

    This *preferred* stock ETF dropped from 25 to 7 during the March 2020 crash.
    SWAN holding? Hardly. And a hard-pass .... but lovely clickbaity headline.
  • MarketWatch: Jim Cramer ... Stock Market to Hit Skids!
    Hi guys, I've trimmed about 1% from my equity allocation each day thus far this week. I'm now about 14% cash, 45% income and 41% equity. Today will be the final equity trim day for me taking another 1% to the cash area of my portfolio and booking profit in the process. Remember I bought the downdraft during the recent stock market swoon. Within equities I did a rebalance of sorts leaving me heavy in the good dividend paying funds and I have been trimming mostly from my blend and growth style funds. I'm thinking now is the time for value to find traction. From a style perspective I am about 40% value, 30% blend and 30% growth with about 70% being in large caps and 30% in the smids. With this Old_Skeet keeps on ... keeping on.
  • MetWest Flexible Income Fund - MWFEX, MWFSX
    Looking at MWFSX I can see that the daily distribution is going down. That is not a good thing and why the return will go down because it was a major part of its total return.
    As of Date Dividend Rate
    7/14/2020 0.000696355
    7/13/2020 0.001070898
    7/12/2020 0.00292486
    7/11/2020 0.00292486
    7/10/2020 0.00292486
    7/9/2020 0.002941311
    7/8/2020 0.003001093
    7/7/2020 0.003107266
    7/6/2020 0.003372154
    7/5/2020 0.003362877
    7/4/2020 0.003362877
    7/3/2020 0.003362877
    7/2/2020 0.003362877
    7/1/2020 0.003403448
    6/30/2020 0.004653331
    6/29/2020 0.004131378
    6/28/2020 0.005873692
    6/27/2020 0.005873692
    6/26/2020 0.005873692
    6/25/2020 0.00452522
    6/24/2020 0.004407367
    6/23/2020 0.004650857
    6/22/2020 0.004539056
    6/21/2020 0.005814275
    6/20/2020 0.005814275
    6/19/2020 0.005814275
    6/18/2020 0.005364586
    6/17/2020 0.004498074
  • Bkln - Low-Cost Floating Rate Debt Index ETF

    Low-Cost Floating Rate Debt Index ETF, 4.62% Yield
    Jul. 14, 2020 3:33 PM ETInvesco Senior Loan ETF
    Interest rates are at historical lows.
    Most fixed rate securities and funds offer low yields, and could suffer sizable losses if rates normalize.
    Floating rate funds, including BKLN, can help reduce interest rate risk, and can help investors profit from rising interest rates.
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4358444-bkln-low-cost-floating-rate-debt-index-etf-4_62-yield
  • IVWAX Manager Change
    There is an earlier post concerning de Lardemelle's departure:
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/56527/charles-de-lardemelle-is-leaving-iva-fiduciary-trust
    Maybe something will be posted concerning it in the upcoming monthly commentary.
    I have small positions of both funds in non-taxable accounts.
  • U.S.-China Tensions Rise Amid Hong Kong and Trade Concerns
    Investors Find New Safe Place to Hide: Chinese Bonds
    By Anna Hirtenstein
    July 13, 2020 5:30 am ET
    /Foreign investors are increasingly buying debt issued by the Chinese government for yields and safety
    U.S.-China Tensions Rise Amid Hong Kong and Trade Concerns
    While the U.S. deals with the novel coronavirus, racial injustice and a presidential campaign, tensions with China continue to unfold. WSJ’s Gerald F. Seib explains. Photo: Wang Zhao/AFP
    Investors seeking shelter from the turbulence in markets have found a new haven: Chinese sovereign bonds.
    Foreign capital flowed into locally denominated Chinese government bonds in the second quarter.../
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/investors-find-new-safe-place-to-hide-chinese-bonds-11594632600
    https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/gim/adv/products/d/jpmorgan-government-bond-fund-a-4812C0399?c3apidt=p40875349363&gclsrc=aw.ds&&gclid=Cj0KCQjw9b_4BRCMARIsADMUIyqtotbEK1iCEH1dqMAj3n0RFxIrK6snqMLFmK-rQcB3M4iDy5gPEZQaAu9BEALw_wcB
    https://www.manulifeim.com/institutional/global/en/viewpoints/fixed-income/china-fixed-income-a-safe-haven-asset-in-uncertain-times?cid=US-EN_MIM_IN_PS_AdWords_Ambition_General_GA_CS_TA_00_BR_00_00_AW_00_20200611_ChinaBond_ChinaBondMarket&utm_source=PS&utm_medium=AdWords&utm_campaign=Ambition_General&utm_term=ChinaBond_ChinaBondMarket&utm_content=US-EN_MIM_IN_GA_CS_TA_00_BR_00_00_AW_00_20200611&gclid=Cj0KCQjw9b_4BRCMARIsADMUIyqatxsJ9RTnlR2Cvt6AlPW_CIq0BdRHWPoIzSqYJecy0Reufl8pM7caAoRZEALw_wcB
  • MarketWatch: Jim Cramer ... Stock Market to Hit Skids!
    JohnN, I can take that prediction to the bank with truly 100% certainty. :)
    Cramer maybe off his meds again
    Then again 50% of Wallstreet analyst*s market predictions are right and 50% are wrong
  • MarketWatch: Jim Cramer ... Stock Market to Hit Skids!
    Cramer maybe off his meds again
    Then again 50% of Wallstreet analyst*s market predictions are right and 50% are wrong