A state by state experiment involving moving beyond the pandemic shut down is underway. It involves both numbers and attitudes. We will see over the next several weeks and months how it plays out. Hospital patient volume limitations may place a cap on the willingness of states to open up. But, within that cap, it may turn out that the effective end of the pandemic for most people includes acceptance of monthly death and infection numbers that force the more vulnerable portions of the population to be quite cautious.
That type of ending could accelerate the rate at which the economy rebounds.

When will the Covid-19 pandemic end? And how?
According to historians, pandemics typically have two types of endings: the medical, which occurs when the incidence and death rates plummet, and the social, when the epidemic of fear about the disease wanes.
“When people ask, ‘When will this end?,’ they are asking about the social ending,” said Dr. Jeremy Greene, a historian of medicine at Johns Hopkins.

https://nytimes.com/2020/05/10/health/coronavirus-plague-pandemic-history.html

Hi @Level5, For someone that has not followed the fund I can understand why one could become confused. It took me, years back, a while before I fully understood how the fund works. Know, I am not trying to change your thoughts on the fund ... Just, trying to help bring a better understanding on how it works from my past experiences.
Here is the link to the fund. https://www.columbiathreadneedleus.com/investment-products/mutual-funds/Columbia-Thermostat-Fund/Class-A/details/?cusip=197199755&_n=1
First, know that it has a 31 day trading rule and it can not change position direction once established until 31 days have expired.
Second, to see how the fund is positioned follow the link and open The Asset Allocation Update which will be a pfd. On this pfd you will find the last six asset allocation changes the fund made with the last one taking place on 4/28/2020 where it moved to a 35% stock / 65% bond allocation.
Third, once annually (May 1st) the fund managers set the trading ranges for the fund going forward for the coming year. With this, on May 1st of 2020 the fund made an asset allocation change from a baseline 10% equity allocation to a 50% baseline equity allocation before adjusting for the movement of the 500 Index. Since, the 31 day traiding rule is in effect the fund will not make the actual declared adjustment until the 31 days has expired from the date of the last asset allocation change. This will be done somewhere around May 29th.
For me it was a risk off ... risk on ... fund holding. Now with the baseline asset allocation change from a 10% baseline equity allocation to a 50% equity allocation it is no longer, from my perspective, a risk off ... risk on ... fund. With this, I have it under review, myself, to determine just how much of it I will continue to hold going forward.
I hope my above comment bring some clairty for a better understanding of how the fund positions.
Skeet

https://www.kiplinger.com/slideshow/investing/T052-S005-earn-up-to-9-on-your-money-now/index.html
/in addition to taking a vast human toll, the coronavirus pandemic has mercilessly infected virtually every corner of the investment world. As markets plunged and seized up, the Federal Reserve dropped its short-term interest rate to zero and began injecting trillions of dollars into the financial system to shore up credit markets and keep money flowing to beleaguered companies, households and local governments. Yields on 10- and 30-year Treasuries plummeted to record lows, and yields briefly turned negative on some short-term T-bills/
Couple good ideas presented
Enjoy

@_sir MikeM...I feel you 55% of the time, 47 yo but mentally 28 yo, physically 65 yo (especially after long hrs/days of work).
Been adding more energy vde vang2045, and start new positions in biogen/vong few days ago.
Holding on for the rough volatile rides ahead

hmmmm. no thoughts. i already made all the money on pot stocks that i think i can and don't want to go back there. day trading on hot tips nearly killed me, though i did come out ahead by like 25k. too kooky. but that was a few years back and maybe things have settled down since then.
as re CTFAX (and RLSFX, for that matter) -- yup, 52 week highs. which makes me a FOMO investor of the most worstest kind. going to keep a short tether on both, however. or at least i hope to.

Hi Linter,
I agree with you. No faith in the market. Also, AKREX was crossed off a watch list due to finance sector weighting. It's also why YCGEX was sold. Too many maybe(s) in this area. Also, CTFAX is at 52-week highs. So I would be not a buyer of it. Also, any thoughts on CANNX, KAIBX or FARMX?
God bless
the Pudd

mcm: i just don't have a lot of faith in this market and, if that's the case, i'd rather be in something that held up better into march.
https://ishort.ink/BTTq
that said, the posts by old skeet and level5 have given me a certain amount of pause regarding CTFAX.

@Old_Joe
I agree completely. I think this is not going to be a "V" shaped recovery; It may not even be "U" shaped, but more "L" with a long tail.
All it will take to close movie theaters again is a couple of cases linked to a local theater. Same with restaurants, cruise lines fitness centers.. any business that depends on face to face public interactions etc.
Most REITS have reported collecting less than 70% of the rent owed them in April. How long before that number is lower?
If you can accept a 3 to 5 year stock market sag, I guess you are OK staying in the market, although it was down 80% in 1929- 1933 and did not fully recover until 1954, right?
People really need to consider why they are in the market. IF it is to fund a retirement 20 years away go for it. But if it is to get a dependable income stream for your current retirement I would be very very careful. I would much rather spend principal for a few months to live on than run the risk of a 25% decline
While I doubt the feds will help, maybe by mid to late summer if there is enough contact tracing and testing there will be the ability to identify cases quickly and keep the infection rate low. However, given the way the right wing is "weaponizing" Covid Politics, I think there are likely to be large areas of the country with significant disease for a long time
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/09/us/politics/coronavirus-death-toll-presidential-campaign.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

Hi @Old_Skeet,
Thanks for your link to COTZX & CTFAX. I have been curious about his fund since it was noted here at MFO recently. M* lists it as a 15-30% equity allocation fund, while Columbia lists it’s Mar 31st allocation as 70% equity / 30% FI. M* shows its’ equity investment now as 62%. Here is their strategy for how they change allocations:
https://www.columbiathreadneedleus.com/content/columbia/pdf/LIT_DOC_3C97987F.PDF
Very confusing and unfortunately I’m losing interest.
Best to all - Brian

Hi @linter, Recently as of May 1, 2020 COTZX & CTFAX changed it's equity weighting scale. With this, I am now rethinking just how much of it I am wanting to hold as it has now become more aggressive. This may help increase long term fund performace. It now takes on more risk in raising its threshold equity allocation from 10 percent to 50 percent before adjusting for the movement of the 500 Index.
You can find its new equity weighting scale under the Asset Allocation section in the below link ... Fact Sheet button.
https://www.columbiathreadneedleus.com/investment-products/mutual-funds/Columbia-Thermostat-Fund/Class-A/details/?cusip=197199755&_n=1

Howdy folks,
Please, dear God, get a grip. Take away NYC and the Curve is still spiking for the nation. That means that when it peaks we'll have an equal number of deaths on the downslope. Do the math. 3000 deaths per day. 20 days left in May, 80K right now. Er, 150k by June 1. Double that for June. At this rate of 'smart' living we'll hit a million by fall when the second wave starts. Oh, and every scientist on the planet says the second wave is going to be much worse.
Sorry.
Rono

The 68-69 flu killed a ~100k in the USA over 1.5 years... we're getting there in 4 months with COVID19 and only 400k-500k attended Woodstock.

Added more to vanguard 2045. VDE a few days ago. Took new positions in VONG [Thx Dr DavidrMoran for recs]

Hello
We may find out by end of summer-mid falls/after presumptive media-driven news regarding colossal massive deaths [maybe supposed to be 2 -3 millionss by time we are done] from covid19 rebounds.
Prelim numbers could be ~ ? 30x to 80x off based on antibodies studies [but death data and number carrying virus could be skewed either ways]; others says world ending virus/doomsday virus has killed 0.0003% of US population so far [probably from DT/trumptards fans].
Still 90/10 w/ private portfolio and redistributions and adding TDF 2045 [rebalanced form 80/20 after March 20s th]
Read somewhere where they had that massive Asian Flu in late 69s and greatest concerts in Earth Still happened @ Woodstock where millions did showed up. US did have braver men and women at that time. Think international travel maybe limited back then. Social Distancing were out of questions definitely then [especially w/ the heavy smoking/ grass and s*x]
But feel bad either ways for business owners will be on the streets soon begging for food if keep everything closed any longer.
I called and discussed w/ the Merrill Edge managers last week, they say maybe good time to buy for long terms [not short nor medium], I think market maybe much higher 5 yrs from today. Probably best go 90/10, shut everything off for 6 months [TV news, etc...] keep DCAs. [We will see what happen in 6 months-12 months when wake up from this nightmare].
I do feel blessed because accnt only ~ 10s% down from previous all time highs. Maybe spoken too soon, maybe 25s% down again after summer.

May 8th Episode:
In part II of our interview with financial thought leader, Jason Trennert

thoughts on durability
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/05/us-unemployment-rate-jobs-report-stock-market-dow.html

Hi guys ... The S&P 500 Index keeps climbing and as of today's close of 2930 puts it up about 31% from its 52 week low and down 13.5% from its 52 week high. For the barometer, it keeps dropping and scores the Index as extremely overbought based upon its metrics. Can the Index keep going higher while the barometer keeps falling? Remember, this is a Fed induced rally with large amounts of money having been injected into the financial system. With this, I'm now thinking that the market can rally on. And, when the barometer starts rising again ...Well, this may be a signal for more volatility ahead. Much like the restaurants, bars & grills in the Carolinas make a last call shout out about a half an hour before closing time.

VWINX is a fine one stop fund for income and some capital gains. It is paying only a little more than a core bond fund but subject to more equity risk. IT lost 8% in the recent crash.

Looking at VWINX's most recent Drawdown (-8.5%):
https://screencast.com/t/HKfu96M9JFC

I "love" when someone says averages. You can do better than the average and/or find better than average funds. It also depends on when you start and end the results.
Any time you start before a crash and end after a crash, "safer" higher-credit bonds look better.
So, if I compare PIMIX to BND from 01/2010 to 01/2018(link). PIMIX did 3 times better and why PIMIX was a major % of my portfolio. Since 01/2018 it wasn't as good but IOFIX was great until end of 02/2020 when I sold it.
Basically, it depends what kind of investor are you, style, goals, retiree or accumulator and more.