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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Old-Joe or anyone, Home page acting differently
    Mark............add
    This is a broad search for Safari ver. 13.1
    As you scroll down the links list you will see some articles dated March 27, etc. indicating some apparent problems encountered by others. I didn't read the CNET story, but you may want to check this, too.
    WHAT version of Safari is indicated on your MAC?
  • FUND reopenings
    @mcmarasco
    The AUM was $7 billion when the fund closed 1 year ago. Some of the change value today to about $5.3 billion, is likely a combination of outflows from the fund and the underlying value of the holdings downward at this time. Mark had noted the value of the holdings for some of the AUM change.
  • FUND reopenings
    Not happy Fidelity reopened FSMEX. I’ve been invested in it for three+ years now and I thought the AUM was more than high enough.
    The AUM is still over $5 billion. I presume they see great “value”in their space. I sure hope that’s the reason!
  • Stay Calm Amid Bond Market Chaos
    https://www.kiplinger.com/article/investing/T052-C003-S002-stay-calm-amid-bond-market-chaos.html
    /Stay Calm Amid Bond Market Chaos
    The risk is that you’ll lock your money in a low-yield prison just in time for normalcy to return to the financial markets.
    I won’t mince words: “Lower for longer,” my overriding view of fixed-income yields, is trending toward “lowest imaginable.” Expect the imminent return of zero, or near-zero, rates on money market funds, three- and six-month CDs, and bank deposits. Bonds with 4% and 5% coupons will be called in bunches by their issuers. Mortgage refis will cut the payouts from Ginnie Mae funds. More dividend erosion is in store for short- and intermediate-term bond funds./
    Yields for vehicles mentioned in article so low
    Maybe these are reasons investors may take higher risks to buy stocks....
    Tread very carefully/don't catch falling knife especially with capital preservation portfolio
  • When Can America Reopen From Its Coronavirus Shutdown?
    Good morning
    Not trying to downplay virus issues /data but seems many major medical centers in major cities are extremelyslow right now [except hotspots NYC New Jersey NOLA]. We have family members working in austin and houston medical centers, they says rate of patients coming to er/hospitals down by 80-90% compared to Nov-Dec19. Their medical facilities are ghost town resemblance. Also not many active COVID19 cases.
    Do you see similar themes in your local hospitals with down screenings and not too busy ER/HOSPITALS. Others argue these previous news maybe overhyped by Media. Virus deceased data of course real but it seems majority of US may have it under control. At least preliminary data demonstrates limited admissions and ICU care. As others stated, hope we can flatten curve soon....we will know in several weeks and hope for the best. Hopefully these are good signs and we are doing good job of virus containment.
    My brother works as RN, he says they cut back his shifts by 30%, because he is not needed most of time because limited admissions and everything shut down, no more elective procedures at least until May 5th. Think most private physicians are also suffering not getting enough patients and supporting staff furloughed.
    Hopeful for economy slowly reopen in 5-8 weeks/things slowly return to normalcy
  • Matthews China Small Companies MCSMX
    This is such a niche fund holding. I'd be very careful. If youre interested in EM take a look at ARTYX. Its done quite well in its 3 years. Has also held up well compared to its category. MY favorite intl holding though is MFAIX. Best risk adjusted returns over 3, 5 and 7 years
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    Rates will stay low and I intend to get better than 4% (I hope for at least 4.5-5%) from my bond funds, after all, I invest mostly in bond funds but I also trade them. Don't forget that bonds have several categories such as HY. Coming out of this mess, the best managers/funds will do much better than a simple index like BND. We have seen it already after 2009.
  • Dodge and Cox
    VTV is not SP500 value, right? That would be VOOV.
    3/4 as many stocks.
    And if you write and edit fund prospectuses, you recognize that the D&C language nuance / emphasis are subtly more different from than similar to the TRP language.
    My main point, for years now, that many put D&C on a pedestal because their team management style, LT investing history, lower rates which I know all about but the numbers don't back it up and then I hear the excuses.
    Any fund can make up a more complicated strategy and claim...well, it's not really the same so you can't compare it.
    LC US stocks is the main category investors use and if a fund can't perform better for 1-3-5-10-15 years than the SP500 + its volatility is higher than the SP500 there are no buts or ifs. We are talking short-term + long-term
    See 15 years of risk/reward(link).
    As of 3/31/2020
    15 years aver annual performance...VFIAX=7.39...DODGX 5.45%
    15 years SD=volatility......................VFIAX=14.3...DODGX 17.1
    Below is the more current results as of 04/03/2020
    image
  • Old-Joe or anyone, Home page acting differently
    @OJ - I am using Mac OS High Sierra v.10.13.6 on a 2011 MacBook Pro. My continuing details relate just to this post on the discussion page.
    @Ben - Yes, I am referring to the "Discussions Home Page" and not the MFO Home Page.
    1. I logged into the Discussions Home Page. This Discussion post was shown with the light gray background (I agree its quite faint) because I had read Catch22's post earlier. There was also the wording [ 2 New ] enclosed in a yellow shape. This indicated that OJ and Ben had responded.
    2. I clicked on the post which opened up in a new page. I read OJ and Ben's contributions and used the left-pointing arrow to go back to the Discussions home page. In the past the yellow shape and enclosed wording would have been gone but now it's still there.
    3. I clicked on the post again and added my "test" response.
    4. I used the left-pointing arrow to go back to the Discussions home page. Again the yellow shape and enclosed wording should have been gone but it's still there.
    5. I used the left-pointing arrow to go back to the Discussions home page. I then reloaded the Discussion page using the Safari reload symbol. Only now is the yellow shape gone. In the past it would have been gone as soon as I had read the new additions and returned to the Discussion home page using the left-pointing arrow.
    Hope that makes sense. I checked my Safari settings and Preferences and nothing has been added or changed since the beginning.
  • Dodge and Cox
    I'm reading, learning with interest on this thread. Way back in 2010, I agreed t babysit my colleague's money. I put him into PRWCX, which I own, too. I put his wife in DODBX. (And DODIX, too.) I just read the Morningstar update on DODBX. Morningstar is not "gospel-truth," but they have, I notice, reduced the DODBX rating down to 3 stars (from 5, then 4 some time ago) but they continue to rate it "GOLD." And not every fund even gets one of those "metal-medals:" bronze, silver, gold. THEY are not too worried.
    Over the past 10 years, "risk" is rated HIGH, but that's compared to other funds in a not-so-risky category, yes? Over the same 10-year period, "Returns' are rated Above-Average. I must say, I don't like that recipe: high risk but (only) above-average profit. But it's not a deal-breaker. So, over that long-haul period of 10-years, it's performing better than the avaerage in its category. I take solace in that, at least.
  • Dodge and Cox
    VTV is not SP500 value, right? That would be VOOV.
    3/4 as many stocks.
    And if you write and edit fund prospectuses, you recognize that the D&C language nuance / emphasis are subtly more different from than similar to the TRP language.
  • DSENX - another one that was good until it wasn't
    MikeM The portfolio is the Cape ETN and a portfolio of bonds similiar to the Doubleline Low Duration bond fund which is down 4-5% this year. This year (3 months) is the first time the fund under-performed it's Mstar category for any period of time. It is more volatile than its category peers. I bought it because I liked the concept and after seeing some of the PIMCO stock plus funds knew over the longer term it should outperform the benchmark.
    I like a few of the Doubleline managers and think that Jeff loves attention and is a good marketer and probably has too many funds. I have had good and bad luck with many profiled funds on here and most of them turn out to be average or below, which is unfortunately how this works.
    The Int'l CAPE fund has done horribly since the beginning. I owned it for a year and bailed.
    I guess we have now learned the the only bonds that hold up in a crash are Treasuries.
  • Dodge and Cox
    Dodge & Cox was founded in 1930. The company has introduced only six mutual funds since then. The firm's analysts and managers tend to stay at the company for a very long time. Dodge & Cox funds are team-managed and they have below-average expense ratios. There is a lot to admire about the firm's philosophy and operations. As others have mentioned, value has generally been out of favor for many years. I agree with Mark that it is inappropriate to compare Dodge & Cox funds to growth funds from other shops.
    1) Is the SP500 a growth fund?
    2) DODGX hold Google and MSFT in their top 10, are these not growth?
    3) How can you explain DODGX falling behind VTV(value ETF) for 1-3-5-10-15 years. But wait, VTV also have lower volatility(=SD) and better Sharpe. See 16 years results (link)
    4) VOO (SP500) expense = 0.03% and VTV = 0.04% are definitely cheaper than DODGX = 0.52%
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    @mcmarasco
    The problem right now is that we are at a certain bottom but it can get worse or better which is difficult to predict. VCFAX has at least 40% in investment-grade securitized bond but 22% in the lowest level = BBB which isn't good because these have a good chance to be downgraded. So let's call it 22% in IG which isn't enough.
    On the other hand. VCFAX price/trend has improved and YTD lost close to 15%.
    The above isn't a good choice either way. My rule of thumb says that I sell any bond fund I have if it lost 3+% no matter what. I usually don't hold HY or EM(emerging market) bond fund
    ================
    BAGIX - Baird is a good shop. If I DCA I use what is called pyramid up. I never buy on the way down only up but watch the chart when you buy bond funds because prices don't change much. What does it mean pyramid up? suppose you want to DCA 4 times. You buy your first bucket, the second bucket should be above the first, the third above the second.
    image
    But, these IG funds have another problem. They might be OK but their potential LT annual return will be around 2.5-3%. If you hold them as a ballast then you are OK but if you hold them for higher performance you will not get much.
    ================
    JMUTX is your typical Multi sector fund. It's similar to VCFAX bond rating but more diversified with MBS + Corp. All/Most of the Multi funds have the same problem I described for VCFAX.
  • Dodge and Cox
    More observations:
    1. For 5 years DODFX is rated at 75-89 in its category.
    DODGX lags the SP500 for 1-3-5-10-15 years which is a blended index not growth or value. But Wait...DODGX also lags VTV(value ETF) for 1-3-5-10-15 years
    2. If you read DODGX strategy (link)
    Stocks — The Fund typically invests in companies that, in Dodge & Cox’s opinion, appear to be temporarily undervalued by the stock market but have a favorable outlook for long-term growth.
    It's similar to PRWCX
    "invests primarily in the common stocks of established U.S companies believed to have above-average potential for capital growth."
    The value approach carries a risk that the market will not recognize a security’s intrinsic value for a long time or that a stock judged to be undervalued may actually be appropriately priced because of the fund’s fixed-income holdings or cash position, it may not keep pace in a rapidly rising market.
    PRWCX managers are excellent while D&C are not and the rest are just excuses.
  • Old-Joe or anyone, Home page acting differently
    @Mark- At this moment I'm using my steadfast G5- hardly "the latest Mac OS". This old Mac uses a Firefox variant tweaked for the G5. So I can't tell you much at the moment, other than there's been no changes at MFO as you mention.
    In a bit I'll get over to our Mac Mini- my wife is using it at the moment- and let you know what I see over there, but the Mini OS isn't the latest. If I were you, I'd download Firefox, and see how MFO looks on that. If it's OK, then it is probably a Safari issue. Let me know what's happening at your end.
    OJ
  • Palm Valley Capital Fund (PVCMX)
    The fund is now 52% cash only (it was ~ 90%). Eric still has dry powder.
  • DSENX - another one that was good until it wasn't
    The Gundlach bond sauce has been a drag for some time now, not a plus, since before this crisis, although CAPE all on its own has lagged SP500 slightly also for some time.
    The bond sauce makes DSE_X more like holding CAPE plus some gogo Pimco fund, or even non-gogo Pimco funds. The fact that it 'added' 6.5% to the ytd loss, if my calcs are right, actually makes Gundlach's bond work look rather better than PONAX and PDVAX and FADMX, forget PCI and PDI.
  • DSENX - another one that was good until it wasn't
    I think the Doubleline website does a good job of explaining how it works, but I wonder how many people did proper research on it.
    Proper research? @fundfun, it is pretty hard to research how a fund may perform in a bear market if it's never been in a bear market. Now we know. A lot of Doublelines info is a sales pitch. Actually the best information I've seen is in past posts here at MFO.
    CAPE is a simple concept. That is explained. The bond-derivative part is not explained well at all, so investors have nothing but performance to go by and a leap of faith. From the start this fund was great. The past couple years when value has underperformed so did this fund. Now we know it won't hold up well when bonds are selling off. Now we know.
    CAPE ytd = -24.5
    DSENX ytd = -31.1
  • The futures of the indices are up
    @lynnbolin2020, I really appreciate you for sharing your research and insight. They are invaluable in these challenging time. I couldn't agree more on the impact of COVID-19 on the market.
    Yesterday, the stock market fell 1.5%, supposedly due to an unfavorable employment report. My personal belief is the market is heavily influenced by high frequency algorithm trading in the short term. I also believe that upcoming data on the economy and COVID-19 will drive the market lower over the next few quarters. For now, I believe that it is best to be safe and wait for a better opportunity to rebalance into stocks.
    I would add that this downturn is far worse than 2008 housing crisis, and the pace of drawdown is unprecedented. In early March the market circuit breaker tripped several time in a day as the % decline was getting out of hand. In less than 7 weeks, the market has lost closed to 30%, and there is more to come as the unemployment number rapidly climbs. Until the infection spread is contained, i.e. exponential growth of infection approaches zero, the unemployment, consumer spending, and corporate earning are all in a very dire situation. I believe we are already in a recession and the earning season is upon us now.
    Stay safe and best investing. Sven