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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • MetWest Flexible Income Fund - MWFEX, MWFSX
    The yield in June was 1.26%, so 15% annualized...its come down some, practically no volatility in June. I allocated about 10% to it last week. After seeing how much Tad and other managers own of it, I trust it more. TCW is not Bernie Madoff.
  • Investors that stick with stocks will be rewarded
    VTI/SPY performance was higher than BND in the last 10-20-30 years. Nothing new. What is going to be in the next 10-20 years? probably the same.
    That was easy.
    If you don't care about volatility then you should be in 100% stocks, in fact, you should take a margin, interactive brokers charge only 1.5% on $300K(link)
    So, why do you need bonds? for ballast. Many retirees who accumulate a large portfolio and need a low withdrawal rate (think under 3%) could invest a large % in bonds if they like a lower volatility portfolio.
  • Yes, There Are Alternatives to Stocks Out There. Lots of Them.
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/yes-investors-there-are-alternatives-to-stocks-51593084600
    Incognito
    https://www.google.com/search?q=Yes,+There+Are+Alternatives+to+Stocks+Out+There.+Lots+of+Them&oq=Yes,+There+Are+Alternatives+to+Stocks+Out+There.+Lots+of+Them&aqs=chrome..69i57j69i60l3.1210j0j7&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8
    Yes, There Are Alternatives to Stocks Out There. Lots of Them.
    By Randall W. Forsyth
    TINA may have some competition.
    TINA, of course, is the acronym for There Is No Alternative, the description applied to U.S. common stocks, especially the large-capitalization variety that dominates the major indexes such as the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
    BHYAX
    PHYAX
    MEDAX
    Em bonds
    Junk bonds etf
    Preferred bank stocks
  • Guide To Municipal Bond Funds
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/baldwin/2020/06/26/guide-to-municipal-bond-funds/#5e5dabcc54b5
    Guide To Municipal Bond Funds
    William BaldwinSenior Contributor
    You’ll get a real return of maybe 1% from a tax-exempt portfolio. Should the middlemen get to keep most of that?
    How hungry people are for a tax dodge—and how eager Wall Street is to satisfy them. So it is that there are 564 tax-exempt mutual funds. How to choose?
  • Gold stocks still undervalued

    http://news.goldseek.com/Zealllc/1593346621.php
    Gold stocks still undervalued
    Recent gold-stock technicals support this bullish outlook, with gold stocks consolidating high since their mean-reversion surge stalled out. That price action looks like a healthy mid-upleg pause that’s necessary to rebalance sentiment. The gold miners’ earnings growth is going to be strong in coming quarters after the COVID-19 disruptions to mining operations pass. That should continue to fuel strong gold-stock buying.
  • 2019 Luxury Index Lists Whisky As Most Coveted Collectable
    “The report out this month, produced by Knight Frank, says Rare Whisky has grown in value the most over the last 10 years at +564% and increased by +5% in the past 12 months; and states casks remained in huge demand. By comparison cars have seen an increase of 194%, art by 141% and wine by 120%.”
    Story
  • Learn About The Many Types Of Retirement Income Generators

    Also, a chart comparison between HELOC and Reverse Mortgages:
    https://screencast.com/t/HeeBfE0glggj

    This table is inaccurate in at least one respect in my long heloc experience:
    Under Traditional Bank Heloc it says "Becomes balloon after 10 year requiring full repayment". Nonsense, and naturally in the favor of RMs.
    And to further qualify my assertion
    "So it's not necessarily simply opening a line and letting it sit idle for use much later on"
    You can sort of do this, depending. If you have dealings w or holding at a bank (checking, savings, mortgage, say) and good fico, it's entirely possible to get a fixed-low-rate heloc with a high limit (depending on your property equity amount and percentage of course) with a 10y or 15y term, take an initial draw of whatever minimum (bank's heloc people will tell you), stick it in something safe whose return covers half or a third of the interest, return it in a few months (bank will apprise you) and leave things alone and sitting for future needs (bank will give details of any minimum activity and thresholds etc).
    I suspect this is not news to most here.
    Example: You have a house and land worth a half-mil with $100k left on the bank mortgage where you also have your checking and auto-deposit and perhaps billpay. With many banks, national and local alike, you could get say a $200k heloc @ say 4%, take out $10k for say a car purchase, pay it down over the next year or longer (leave all else as is; you will be paying the low interest plus some principal).
    This way you will have for the next decade or more a $190k and rising heloc for sleep-at-night at zero cost.
    If you used the draw for a new roof, or say you did, you can possibly deduct the interest from your taxes too.
  • Learn About The Many Types Of Retirement Income Generators
    Please don't misunderstand me. I like the idea of reverse mortgages if obtained at reasonable cost and rates for a well defined purpose, as I wrote above. They have gotten a somewhat undeserved bad rap, and they've been improved significantly. They're likely superior for a variety of well defined purposes.
    But @bee raised HECMs as a great way to hedge sequence of return risk. For that particular well defined purpose, they may not be the better product. ("Hedge" = "insurance" or "protection".)
    Sequence of return risk is the risk that one's decumulation (spend down/retirement) phase may begin during a market downturn. It's not a risk of ever having a market correction. So a hedge against this risk is protection that's needed during the first few years of retirement. This has a few implications:
    1. Sequence of return risk is not concerned with what happens after, say, 10 years. So it doesn't matter that a HELOC only enables you to draw against your line of credit for 10 years. Like term life, that's the period that you're "insuring".
    2. Since you're only "insuring" for a relatively short period (say, 1/3 of your anticipated retirement period), the fixed (up front) costs of the line of credit weigh more heavily. They are amortized over just a few years, as contrasted with closing costs on a traditional 30 year mortgage. (They also weigh more heavily because you pay these fees even if you never need to draw upon the line of credit.)
    3. The amount of protection you need is capped by your anticipated expenses over the first few years of retirement. So the fact that a reverse mortgage credit line grows doesn't matter. (The fact that it might shrink with a HELOC does matter, however.)
    4. Since this "insurance" is needed at the point of retirement, one might be able to apply for the line of credit shortly before retirement, thus making it easier to qualify for a HELOC.
    In a sense, the whole question of how easy it is to get a HELOC is irrelevant to the question of which one is better. If you cannot get a HELOC then there is no choice to be made.
    Permit a metacomment here: I've been fastidious in citing objective third party sources: the FTC, HUD, the CFPB. Pages from provider products can be informative and accurate, but still incomplete. This is something to watch for not just in this thread, but generally.
    The Reverse.Mortgage page purports to be presenting information on reverse mortgages generally. But then it quietly slides into features that apply only to HECMs, such as being federally insured. You have to flip to another page to find out that this feature costs 2% of the total line of credit up front, plus 0.5% of the outstanding balance annually.
    The comparison chart says that HELOCs become due (balloon payment) after ten years. Some do. But the chart is deceptive here. The Fed writes: "Many existing HELOCs are structured such that when they reach the end of the draw period, they convert from open-ended, non-amortizing lines of credit to closed-end, amortizing loans."
    What is best depends on your intended purpose (including risk tolerance) and the terms (including special features) offered.
  • Will there 2nd wave..?
    Maybe this news will help slow down the increase in confirmed cases in Texas. As the moron said at his rally, "we need to slow down testing".
    From Barrons:
    Coronavirus Testing Sites Will Lose Federal Funding in July
    Updated June 24, 2020 5:32 pm ET / Original June 24, 2020 11:35 am ET
    • The Trump administration is halting federal funding for 13 coronavirus testing facilities at the end of July, including seven in Texas. The Texas testing sites are of particular concern as the state’s cases spike, with more than 5,000 new confirmed cases a day. On Tuesday, Gov. Greg Abbott advised Texans to stay home and gave mayors and county judges the authority to restrict gatherings of more than 100 people.
  • T. Rowe Price 2020 Midyear Market Outlook: Path Ahead For Financial Markets Depends On How Quickl
    https://www.heraldmailmedia.com/news/state/t-rowe-price-2020-midyear-market-outlook-path-ahead-for-financial-markets-depends-on-how/article_356ab962-38a8-59d3-8fc8-91f3dd26301c.html
    T. Rowe Price 2020 Midyear Market Outlook: Path Ahead For Financial Markets Depends On How Quickly Global Economies Navigate Through Pandemic
    By T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. Jun 23, 2020
    BALTIMORE, June 23, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- The longest equity bull market in history came to a sudden and shattering end in March as the Covid-19 pandemic killed hundreds of thousands of people worldwide, forced governments to impose a strict and prolonged quarantine of citizens, and plunged the shuttered global economy into recession. By mid-June, some countries began to emerge from quarantine, leading to concerns about a second wave, while some developing market countries continued to see a troubling rise in new infections. The global economy and markets are likely to remain volatile as scientists race to develop effective treatments and to deploy a vaccine in mass quantities, potentially sometime in 2021.
  • Retirees: It may be time to ditch your investment strategy
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/retirees-it-may-be-time-to-ditch-your-investment-strategy-11593008864
    Outside the Box
    4 ways to build your wealth and make it last longer
    Retirees: It may be time to ditch your investment strategy
    By Jonathan Clements
    What to do with your money now that yield has dried up?
    They’ve long been endangered, but 2020 may mark their demise: After four decades of falling interest rates, it seems safe investments offering attractive yields have finally disappeared.
  • Learn About The Many Types Of Retirement Income Generators
    Can’t get over the fascination with “income” in an extremely low rate environment where U.S. government AAA paper is yielding practically nothing (0.65% this morning on a 10-year bond). Let’s go out a bit on the credit spectrum and assume maybe 2% on a top tier cooperate bond. If you expect those returns to put food on your table over time - best plan to plant a garden.
    Don’t get me wrong. More highly speculative bonds can be held or “played”, along with income producing equities, as part of a broader plan, but the income thrown off from those isn’t the “Steady Eddy” guaranteed stream from month-to-month most would desire or expect in an income generating vehicle. Expect dry spells along the way if going lower down on the credit ladder.
    What seems clear (to me anyway) is the importance of diversifying into an assortment of asset classes, which working together can produce more or less reliable capital appreciation over time. There will be dry spells of course. Think like the major hydro-electric players do and build in some “peak demand reservoirs” you can open the spickets on during those dry times, draw down, and than turn the spickets back off and let the reserve slowly build back up to full capacity during better times. Some use cash as that reserve. But it needn’t have to be cash.
    Think of portfolio construction as: low risk (relatively stable) components, moderate risk components, value-based components, and growth / speculative components. The latter two will stand you well when the flood gates are wide open and the waters sre surging. David is intending to review TMSRX in the July Commentary . Before going “hog-wild” loading up on income funds that return pennies on the dollar, take a look at that one to see where might fit in. I wouldn’t buy an old favorite TRRIX right now, but there’s a fund that originally was named “Retirement Income Fund” (despite maintaining a 40% equity allocation) - just to show you how the definition and approach to income generation may be expanded.
    Added : Reverse mortgages as an income stream? I guess. But it would be hard to call one “income generating” since in essence you’re “Robbing Peter to Pay Paul“. Net-Net the lender gains and the borrower ends up with little or no home equity. To me, home equity is an asset just like a stock, bond, ounce of gold, mutual fund, etc. Don’t misunderstand me. For some people they may make sense. Just questioning how they’re apparently being viewed here.
  • President Trump is great for your 401(k): strategist

    Tweety Amin, AKA Donald JOHN Trump, AKA General Dotard von Bonespurs, AKA Boss Tweety, AKA the Orange S---tgibbon, will win in November and claim 170% (at least!) of the Electoral College with 215% of Republican voters supporting him! There will be No "Fraud" at all and it will be the biglyest blowout in the history of competitions at that fine institution! They will serve hamberders and covfefe at the Corona Plaza gathering of die-hard supporters with live telecast streaming of the similar celebratory festivities in Bejing, Moscow, Manilla, and Caracas! Not to be missed - sorry haters and losers! Thank you!
    ... excuse me, I need to rinse out the bile that's risen and is splashing around my throat now....
  • Learn About The Many Types Of Retirement Income Generators
    @bee,
    I am a longtime user of helocs and my current one is ~$300k @2.4% fixed, so of course I am considering taking 4/5 of it and sticking it into VONG :)
    Anyway, I write to point out that, recessions and calls aside, helocs have expiration dates (mine have, anyway), and typically entail an initial draw as well in order to get best terms. So it's not necessarily simply opening a line and letting it sit idle for use much later on.
  • Bullish investors pull $105bn from US money market funds in four weeks
    95% of advisors we discussed our plans with several months ago [fidelity, vanguard. schwab] strongly recommended heavy stocks/MF based-stocks portfolio, unless you are near retirement.
  • Learn About The Many Types Of Retirement Income Generators
    @bee: Corrected Pfau link
    While I'm generally a fan ofr Dr. Pfau, ISTM he skipped over some details and created some misimpressions. The first is that he appears to use HECM and "reverse mortgage" synonymously. Rather, an HECM is but one of three types of reverse mortgages. Being the most common type, and the one backed by HUD and providing some government protections, it is the type I'd likely look at first. But different types do exist, with different benefits, costs, and risks.
    https://www.consumer.ftc.gov/articles/0192-reverse-mortgages#types
    "With a HECM, the home title is never turned over to the bank." Okay, but so what? One has the same risk of foreclosure regardless of who holds the title. When you buy a home, do you care whether you take out a mortgage (where you keep title), or you borrow the money using a deed of trust (where the trust gets legal title)? While foreclosure procedures differ, you're still subject to foreclosure either way.
    https://www.lendingtree.com/home/mortgage/deed-of-trust-vs-mortgage/
    FWIW, here's what the FTC says about title: "In a reverse mortgage, you keep the title to your home. That means you are responsible for property taxes, insurance, utilities, fuel, maintenance, and other expenses." Of course you'd expect that in any case.
    https://www.consumer.ftc.gov/articles/0192-reverse-mortgages#how
    "They need to have full equity in the home; there can’t be any other lien on the property." HUD begs to differ on HECMs: "You must ... Own the property outright or paid-down a considerable amount"
    https://www.hud.gov/program_offices/housing/sfh/hecm/hecmabou
    Dr Pfau gives four different approaches to managing sequence of return risk (I've cited this before). One is to use a cash buffer.. He describes three different ways of implementing that approach, one of which is to use a reverse mortgage line of credit. What I haven't seen him discuss (perhaps I have not looked hard enough) is why he advocates using a HECM over other types of reverse mortgages, let alone other types of credit.
    ISTM that if you're looking at this for use as a cash buffer - a line of credit for a temporary loan that you might never call upon - a HELOC with lower up front costs could have lower total costs. OTOH, if you're thinking of using a reverse mortgage for something else, then you might still expand your search beyond HECMs. The FTC writes:
    If you’re considering a reverse mortgage, shop around. Decide which type of reverse mortgage might be right for you. That might depend on what you want to do with the money.
    https://www.consumer.ftc.gov/articles/0192-reverse-mortgages#shopping.
    Dr. Pfau mentions using reverse mortgages as a SS bridge (to delay benefits). A 2017 "CFPB report found, in general, the costs and risks of taking out a reverse mortgage exceed the cumulative increase in Social Security lifetime benefits that homeowners would receive by delayed claiming."
    https://www.consumerfinance.gov/about-us/newsroom/cfpb-report-warns-taking-out-reverse-mortgage-loan-can-be-expensive-way-maximize-social-security-benefits/
    Finally, the "gotcha" that concerns me with reverse mortgages (and I like the idea of reverse mortgages if obtained at reasonable cost and rates for a well defined purpose), is that you have to pay the money back when you move. How do you buy a new home if you have spent down your equity? It looks like there is a risk of being locked into your home for life, because you won't have enough equity left to move anywhere else.
    Consumer Financial Protection Bureau: What happens if I have a reverse mortgage [HECM] and I want to sell my home?
    https://www.consumerfinance.gov/ask-cfpb/what-happens-if-i-have-reverse-mortgage-and-i-want-sell-my-home-en-2095/
    HECM risks and disadvantages (citing CFPB): https://www.elderoptionsoftexas.com/article-reverse-mortgage-pros-and-cons.htm
  • Schwab institutional class funds
    @little5bee You are correct. I work for an investment consulting firm & in my personal account under our umbrella, I am able to but Inst class shares, RIA only funds (like interval funds), and even currently closed funds so long as at least 1 account under our huge master account holds the closed fund, usually all with $1 minimum.
  • Bullish investors pull $105bn from US money market funds in four weeks
    https://www.google.com/search?q=Bullish+investors+pull+$105bn+from+US+money+market+funds+in+four+weeks&oq=Bullish+investors+pull+$105bn+from+US+money+market+funds+in+four+weeks&aqs=chrome..69i57.2263j0j7&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/74b413b4-a7c2-4488-a669-e6de4a0133b5
    Bullish investors pull $105bn from US money market funds in four weeks
    Investors and companies have started to redeploy the record amounts of cash they stashed in ultra-safe money market funds at the height of the Covid-19 turmoil, eager not to miss out on a rapid recovery in riskier assets.
    Bull market continues?
  • Wirecard $2 billion Fraud and International Small Cap Funds - Wasatch, Artisan, etc.
    I was an auditor with Arthur Andersen many years ago. We would send confirmation letters to banks to verify cash balances. Weren't any audit tests used to verify this cash balance valued at 25% of total assets?