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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Charting the S&P 500 with Unemployment
    From today's "Chart In Focus":
    "Bullish is not the same as good"
    ...instances of high unemployment rates tend to be followed by several months of rising stock prices. This does not make sense in conventional economic terms. After all, higher unemployment means weaker GDP, and lower company earnings, the latter being what is supposedly the most important factor for stock prices.
    But high unemployment also tends to bring a much more accommodative Federal reserve. When the Covid Crash unfolded, the Fed dropped its Fed Funds target rate down all the way to 0-0.25%. The Fed also ramped up QE4 at the fastest rate of QE that it has ever engaged in. This has been tremendously stimulative to the stock market’s rebound, and the Fed is not likely to back away from this stimulus until it is clear to the decision makers that the economy and unemployment have turned a corner. In the meantime, those stimulative efforts will continue to help boost stock prices higher.
    Chart In Focus
  • U.S. firms shield CEO pay as pandemic hits workers, investors
    See 11 USC 547 - claw back provision of the Bankruptcy Code. It's something I pointed out when I was in a small company going bankrupt. Not as advice, but as a suggestion for the company to check with its lawyers before assuming all payments that it made before filing would "stick". There's an "ordinary course of business" exception that protects routine payments; it doesn't protect bonuses.
    Background on bankruptcy claw backs.
    [S]ome companies have elected to pay managers’ bonuses, or to raise their base salaries, before filing bankruptcy. Those payments can be made with limited oversight, as they are not subject to bankruptcy court approval. However, if a bankruptcy filing becomes necessary, those payments will receive close scrutiny from the company’s creditors and a bankruptcy court. As a legal matter, payments made to corporate insiders within one year of a bankruptcy filing may be clawed-back into the bankruptcy estate.
    https://www.kirkland.com/siteFiles/Publications/FinancierWorldwide_Sprayregen byline 2013.pdf
  • U.S. firms shield CEO pay as pandemic hits workers, investors
    Thx Mark..America at its best...htz hertz pays 16mills to ceo/corporate team before file chapt11
    Little guys get slammed and worrying where next meals may come /find shelters for family from storms from while the big guys get golden chairs and diamonds
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/05/26/investing/hertz-bankruptcy-executive-bonuses/index.html
  • U.S. firms shield CEO pay as pandemic hits workers, investors
    "Sonic is one of six U.S. companies identified in a Reuters review of regulatory filings that have moved to shield their executives' compensation from the pandemic's economic fallout as they laid off or furloughed workers. The others include plush toy seller Build-A-Bear Workshop Inc ( BBW ), restaurant operator Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc ( RRGB ) , retailer Signet Jewelers Ltd ( SIG ) , fashion brand DKNY owner G-III Apparel Group Ltd ( GIII ) and fracking sand producer Covia Holdings Corp ( CVIA ).
    Reuters found 75 other companies that disclosed they are considering changes to executive pay plans in light of the pandemic's impact on their businesses. Among them are ridesharing giant Uber Technologies Inc ( UBER ) , hotel operator Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc ( HLT ) , carrier Delta Air Lines Inc ( DAL ), satellite radio company Sirius XM Holdings Inc ( SIRI ) and Thomson Reuters Corp ( TMSOF ), the parent company of Reuters News."
    Article Here
  • BUY - SELL - PONDER - MAY 2020
    @old_Skeet
    Thanks for the suggestion. Active funds make much more sense than commodity indexes, as most of the latter are just oil funds.
    you will love this
    http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/B3-GU051_Dshot_NS_20200528050335.pnp
    Chart about commodity "super cycle" page 12 but most of the rest of paper about precious metals.
    https://ingoldwetrust.report/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/In-Gold-We-Trust-report-2020-Compact-Version-english.pdf
    It is not clear to me why commodities will do well in a recession unless you fall back on "people have to eat". Oil will get a big bounce soon with only a bit uptick in demand after a lot of supply cut off, but to sustain higher prices I think we would have to see the return of normal demand.
    Agricultural prices have bounced significantly but mostly due to supply disruptions. However even when the US gets it's milk, pork and grains etc supply chains sorted out, with lower restaurants etc won't demand be lower?
    Obviously also an inflation hedge and a "hard asset" that will not be a covid sensitive as real estate for example.
    BCSAX and SPCAX have had similar performances but BCSAX has a decent dividend.
    SPACX is mostly agg products now ( 3/31) with 13% gold and 8% nat gas. But she may have missed best preforming commodity this year OJ and milk.
    Web page little sparse mostly marketing "hedge funds for the rest of us"
  • Exclusive: U.S. taxpayers' virus relief went to firms that avoided U.S. tax
    "LONDON/BOSTON (Reuters) - Last month Zagg Inc ( ZAGG ) , a Utah-based company that makes mobile device accessories, received more than $9.4 million in cash from a U.S. government program that has provided emergency loans to millions of businesses hit by the coronavirus.
    The money was part of the $660 billion Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) -- a linchpin of President Donald Trump's economic rescue package, meant to save small firms convulsed by the pandemic and help them to keep workers on the payroll.
    Claimants certified the loans were necessary to support their business and received an average of $115,000 as of May 26, according to the Small Business Administration, which administers the program. Nasdaq-listed Zagg's ( ZAGG ) loan was more than 80 times that amount.
    That wasn't the only help Zagg ( ZAGG ) had from the government lately. Last year, the company received a $3.3 million tax refund and racked up U.S. tax credits worth $7 million, its public filings show. It made $6 million in profit for 2019, but paid no tax in the United States.
    Zagg ( ZAGG ) has booked much of its profit through small companies in far-off Ireland and the Cayman Islands, its filings show."
    Story here
  • How Much of the Bear Market Losses Have Been Recovered?
    When an investment experiences a 30% loss it requires a subsequent gain of about 43% to get back to "even". This article reviews some of the losses in different categories of the market and subsequent gains off their recent lows.
    how-much-of-stock-market-losses-have-been-made-back
  • Jamie Dimon Captures the Stock Market Moment
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/jamie-dimon-captures-the-stock-market-moment/2020/05/28/f2674a44-a0b7-11ea-be06-af5514ee0385_story.html
    Jamie Dimon Captures the Stock Market Moment
    By Marcus Ashworth | Bloomberg
    May 28, 2020 at 6:43 a.m. CDT
    /Don’t fight the U.S. Federal Reserve — repeat that mantra until it sticks./
    Think sometimes better go with the flow and heard mentality instead fighting it...we see so much risks and adverse conditions for market to cease or goes further - but it still goes up... think better to leave it alone for now
  • What happened with Morningstar Fund Category Return page?
    I withdraw my comment about the M* basic fund screener. While it is free, the "category" performance data at the bottom of the results page is not for the specified category.
    As near as I can tell, the category data posted on the clunky "replacement" page that @DavidV posted are approximately correct. The problem with this page is not only that it is nonfunctional (cannot sort or drill down), but that it includes only categories but bond fund and alternative fund categories.
    The visual data available on M* chart pages give similar, but slightly different category data. For example, the "new" category returns page says that the three year average long government fund return was 12.34%. In comparison, annualizing the 39.17% total return read from this chart gives a category average of 11.65%.
    The chart's category average curve might have been calculated using a different average (e.g. dollar weighted). Also, the chart's default 3 year span differs by one day from the "replacement" category returns page (i.e. not enough to matter).
    The legacy performance page gives yet a third set of figures. For 3 year category performance (long term government) it reports 11.79% annualized. At least all sources are in the same ballpark.
    Free fund screeners like those from Fidelity and Schwab don't give category average returns at all. Though going to those sites' fund pages will get you to similar category chart and tabular data as is found on M*'s site, from whence the data originate.
  • Today’s Interest Rate Environment - A Challenge For Investors And Their Fixed Income Allocation
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/randywarren/2020/05/27/todays-interest-rate-environmenta-challenge-for-investors-and-their-fixed-income-allocation/#479fbfa6caf9
    Today’s Interest Rate Environment - A Challenge For Investors And Their Fixed Income Allocation
    The Role of Bonds in a Portfolio while Interest Rates are Low
    /Today’s interest rate environment poses a challenge for investors and their fixed income allocation. In the US and around the world government bond yields are at extremely low levels, at the time of writing this report, the US Treasury 10 year is at .70% and some other countries’ yields are zero or negative. Over the years investors have looked to bonds for income, capital preservation and a hedge against inflation. Investors have enjoyed a bull market in fixed income securities/bonds over the last 40 years!/
    Have not sold bonds and bonds etf in our other vsnguard portfolio, we did not see a large drop compared to DOWS Or SPY, but of course now its still going up slowly not like our merrilledge portfolio all stocks...at least we sleep better at night....
    Another interesting read gives good ideas but from oversea INDIA
    https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/351139
  • market up >500 pts today; any changes in plans/suggestions?
    Do you folks think this is a new fierce-bull market rally or just a W recovery in hiding, will DOWS JONES reach 15k by end of summer, or 26.3k???
    I know exactly what will happen. The Dow will reach 26123 next week. Then, it will go to 24652 a week later. Then 22521 and finally 27365.
    Wait, it was a dream
    I sold before the crash, then made some successful trades in stock ETF + CEFs, back to be fully invested in bond OEFs after about 5 weeks, and continue to make money.
    I write my portfolio results every week and so far in 2020 I was up every week except one where I lost -0.2%. Life is good. In the last 3 years, I never lost more than 1% from any last top.
  • What happened with Morningstar Fund Category Return page?
    it's at http://news.morningstar.com/fund-category-returns
    But, none of the links work. I tried 5-6 of them.
    ===========
    Fidelity let you use their fund screener for free, see it (here)
  • The stock market's speculative frenzy
    Really nonsense article. When markets are extreme + high volatility then the volume is up...duh. See 5 years (chart).
  • Bounce Back ... MFO Ratings Updated Through April 2020
    Just added nine new evaluation periods to MultiSearch and Portfolios tools, as described here.
    I'm finding the new period quite helpful. Thank you @WABAC!
  • Trending ... Three Top Performing Global Allocation Funds
    These are all global equity funds. I suppose they are all sort of "allocation" funds in the sense that they allocate their holdings between foreign and domestic stocks. But that's not what's claimed on the page:
    These funds seek capital appreciation by investing in a variety of asset classes including equities and bonds from emerging and developed markets across the globe.
    The largest fund by AUM on the site's global allocation list is VTIBX. Not global (pure international), not allocation (pure bond). Your guess is as good as mine.
    Regarding "what's in a name", these funds could not call themselves global allocation funds. The SEC would be all over them for misleading names.
    The author really did intend to say that these are the top (best) funds in some class (though we're not really sure what class that is): "we select the top three funds with the highest one-year trailing total returns."
    He goes on to say that BGAFX, with its 1.15% ER is cheap, relative to its peers (like VTIBX?). Well sure, if one compares this with class C (embedded level load) shares of other funds. That's precisely what he's doing.
    The second fund on its top three list is PRJCX. That comes in a noload class Z, with a 0.94% ER available NTF at Schwab. The third fund is another C class share: MSOPX. The A class shares of MGGPX are available NTF at many brokerages, and cost 1.23%, compared with the 1.95% ER (including level load) of the C shares.
  • Do You Have A Long-Term Plan If The Coronavirus Bear Market Continues?
    @Starchild,
    do you mask?
    you do know that vaccination is also for protection of all us others here, right?
    maybe you don't realize that, actually.
    I guess you must not know people who must live or move in close numbers either.
    https://newrepublic.com/article/157773/pandemic-driving-conservative-intellectuals-mad
    Let's not get obnoxious. You taking the first dose of the vaccine? Go for it.
  • Do You Have A Long-Term Plan If The Coronavirus Bear Market Continues?
    @Starchild,
    do you mask?
    you do know that vaccination is also for protection of all us others here, right?
    maybe you don't realize that, actually.
    I guess you must not know people who must live or move in close numbers either.
    https://newrepublic.com/article/157773/pandemic-driving-conservative-intellectuals-mad
  • Trending ... Three Top Performing Global Allocation Funds
    Those are not global allocation funds, but instead standard global growth funds.
    I’m tempted to say, “What’s in a name? That which we call a rose ... “
    Kidding aside, Ol’Skeet inadvertently reversed a couple key words in the title which do impact meaning (or at least emphasis) here.
    - Ol’Skeet’s title: “Trending ... Top Three Global Allocation Funds”
    - What the author had: “Trending ... Three Top Global Allocation Funds”
    In the first case, Ol’Skeet’s title suggests that these three funds are “the top“ (best) funds in their class.
    In the second case, the author intended to say only that these were “three among the best” in their class.
    I also agree with @hmgodwin in that these three funds sound too aggressive to conform with my understanding of what a global allocation fund is. Here’s the dead giveaway from the article: “Global allocation funds tend to be highly volatile and are suited for aggressive investors.” That sentence makes one wonder just what assets the fund is allocating among?
    The global allocation genre evolved long after I cut my teeth on investing. When I started out 50+ years ago the choices were pretty much: domestic equity, global equity, balanced. Pretty plain and simple. So my understanding of what a global allocation fund invests in is limited to some familiarity with RPGAX. That one is: 60% U.S. / international equity; 30% U.S. / international bond; and 10% in an out-of-house hedge fund. Likely, there are other variations elsewhere.
  • Do You Have A Long-Term Plan If The Coronavirus Bear Market Continues?
    I don't think most people comprehend what we are up against.
    1) How bad Covid can get. All these statements about "it only affects old people" ignore the fact that for example, here in CT the urban and suburban hospitals have been decimated. Not that there are refrigerated trucks like in NYC but the hospitals are almost completely full of Covid. 50% of the ICU beds are under 65. The only reason Yale New Haven Hospital was not overwhelmed was the social distancing and canceling of almost all other patient care. They are only now after three months tentatively restarting some elective surgeries, but only major ones.
    Why won't Covid do to the poorer neighborhoods of San Antonio and Austin what it did here for example, if people don't take extreme precautions? And when it hits, most of the folks i these southern states have far higher risk factors for critical disease (especially obesity) than the NE, and they do not have insurance.
    2) the pathetic federal response and the inhumane lack of leadership and even basic human decency from our commander in chief has forced states to do it on their own, perhaps permanently impairing the testing and contact tracing that other countries have used to open up somewhat safely. When the second wave hits, states with governors who lean to the "this is a hoax" ( ie Texas Georgia Florida Alabama) will have no position to reverse course without admitting they made a horrible mistake.
    Until there is an effective vaccine that has been administered to 50% of the population I fear we are in for a rough ride
    I doubt I'll get a vaccine shot. Big Pharma to the rescue? No thanks. I also find it disturbing people's dependency on drugs.
    As for Covid, I let go of all the fear a while ago and never felt better. Fear is very unhealthy. Just be smart. If people washed their hands more, we'd have a lot less sick people overall.
  • What happened with Morningstar Fund Category Return page?
    Deleting this seems to be another one of M*'s "simplification" "improvements". I looked for the page a couple of months ago and what you found was the best I could do. I believe there's a thread (or more) on M*'s boards about this, but it's been awhile since I actually looked for this page.
    It's a pain, but you can get the missing category averages out of M*'s basic fund screener. Pick a category, e.g. large cap blend. On the results page, flip to "Performance". At the bottom of the page it shows the YTD, 1, 3, 5, and 10 year category averages.
    Right now that shows:
    Large Blend Avg -8.73% (YTD) ;4.15% (1 yr); 7.01% (3 yr); 7.17% (5 yr); 11.39% (10 yr)
    If you want to see all the funds in a category and sort, you'll need the premium screener, since many categories have more than 200 share classes. 200 is the max returned by the basic screener. But the premium screener performance page omits 10 year performance. One used to be able to coax this information out by using a custom view with the premium screener, but that feature no longer seems to work.