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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Tracking the Berkshire Hathaway Portfolio
    Here's a bit of additional information excerpted from a recent article in the WSJ:
    The billionaire Warren Buffett added two more big, American brands to Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s investment portfolio.
    Mr. Buffett’s conglomerate has purchased $8.6 billion in stock in Verizon Communications Inc., the largest U.S. mobile carrier, and $4.1 billion in Chevron Corp. according to a snapshot of investments held in the quarter ended Dec. 31.
    In 2020, Chevron had its worst year since 2016, and Verizon’s fourth-quarter profit fell after it booked higher costs and gained fewer new customers than usual.
    It isn’t clear whether Mr. Buffett made the decision to invest in the two firms or if the decision was made by Berkshire money managers Todd Combs and Ted Weschler. The two are expected to take over all of Berkshire’s investments once Mr. Buffett is no longer in the top job.
    Berkshire adjusted some of its drugmaker investments bets. The conglomerate sold off its $136 million investment in the Covid-19 vaccine maker Pfizer Inc., while increasing stakes in the pharmaceutical brands AbbVie Inc., Merck & Co. and Bristol Myers Squibb Co.
    It also continued to cut back from financial firms, selling off its remaining $93 million investment in JPMorgan Chase & Co., and whittling away at its stake in Wells Fargo & Co. by $1.4 billion.
    Last year Berkshire Hathaway sold stakes in airlines, including United Airlines Holdings Inc., American Airlines Group Inc., Delta Air Lines Inc. and Southwest Airlines Co. Mr. Buffett said he thought consumer behavior regarding travel had changed for the long term.
    Additionally, I believe that in the past few days I read an article reporting that Berkshire had significantly cut back it's investments in Apple, but I'm unable to locate that source at this time.
  • Did anybody receive 1099 form for IOFIX?
    FWIW, I held a different fund through Fidelity where about 5% of the dividends were ROC. I also sold some of the shares in November.
    Fidelity handled everything well. It reduced the amount of divs (box 1a) on the 1099 by the ROC amount and reported the ROC in box 3. To my delight it correctly prorated the ROC between the shares sold and the remaining shares and adjusted cost bases of each lot of shares accordingly.
    So at least on the Fidelity end, they know what they're doing. They even provided the 1099 on Feb 13th, two days before required. As far as the Alphacentric end is concerned, you'll have to see if some investors in IOFIX have more information.
  • Waiting for the Last Dance -- Jeremy Grantham
    I "love" Grantham/GMO predictions
    12/31/2020 (link) 7 year prediction were: US LC will make 0.4% + 2.5% = 2.9% annually. EM will make 4.1%+2.5% inflation=6.6%. The real results(link) show SPY=13.65 annually EEM=1.9% annually
    2012(link): "Jeremy Grantham Warns 2013 Will Be A Dangerous Year For Stocks". 2013 results: VFIAX 32.3%.
    2015(link>): "GMO founder Grantham says markets ‘ripe for major decline’ in 2016". The results: +11.9%
    Why do they keep listening to him? Panic and bad news sell....wait, I know, one day the market will crash, what a story.
  • Karner Blue Biodiversity Impact Fund share class conversion
    follow-up:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1545440/000139834421003462/fp0062438_497.htm
    497 1 fp0062438_497.htm
    February 16, 2021
    KARNER BLUE BIODIVERSITY IMPACT FUND
    Investor Class (KAIAX)
    Institutional Class (KAIIX)
    ButterflyTM Class (KAIBX)
    Each A Series of Ultimus Managers Trust
    Supplement to Summary Prospectus, Prospectus, and Statement of Additional Information dated September 28, 2020
    This supplement updates certain information in the Summary Prospectus (“Summary Prospectus”), the Prospectus (“Prospectus”) and the Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”) of the Karner Blue Biodiversity Impact Fund (the “Fund”), a series of the Ultimus Managers Trust. For more information or to obtain a copy of the Fund’s Summary Prospectus, Prospectus or SAI, free of charge, please visit the Fund’s website at www.biodiversityimpactfund.com or call the Fund toll free at 1-855-KBANIML (855-522-6465).
    Closure and Conversion of Shares
    On March 18, 2021, all existing shares of the Investor Class and Institutional Class of the Fund will be converted into shares of the ButterflyTM Class of the Fund (the “Conversion”). There will be no fees charged in connection with the Conversion. After the Conversion, the Fund will offer only a single class of shares – the ButterflyTM Class.
    There are no tax consequences anticipated with the Conversion, and no action is necessary on your part to effect the Conversion. Shareholders should consult with their own tax advisors to ensure proper treatment on their income tax returns.
    Shareholders may continue to purchase and redeem Investor Class and Institutional Class shares of the Fund on each business day until the Conversion on March 18, 2021.
    After the Conversion, all references to the Investor Class and Institutional Class of the Fund are hereby struck from the Fund’ Summary Prospectus, Prospectus, and SAI.
    Changes to the ButterflyTM Class Shares
    Effective on February March 18, 2021, the minimum initial investment amount for ButterflyTM Class shares of the Fund will be $2,000. References in the Fund’s Summary Prospectus and Prospectus to the ButterflyTM Class’ minimum investment amounts in the section titled “Purchase and Sale of Fund Shares” and in the section titled “How to Buy Shares” are hereby modified accordingly.
    Also Effective on March 18, 2021, the ButterflyTM Class of the Fund will be subject to the Fund’s Administrative Service Plan, and may make service fee payments to financial intermediaries for certain administrative, recordkeeping, and other non-distribution related services at an annual rate of up to 0.10% of the Fund’s average daily net assets. The Administrative Service Plan and the accompanying fee, is identical to that which applied to the Institutional Class shares of the Fund, and the section in the Fund’s Prospectus and SAI titled “Administrative Services Plan” should now be read to apply to the ButterflyTM Class of the Fund, rather than to the Institutional Class.
    Change to the Investment Adviser’s Address
    Effective immediately, the address of the Fund’s investment adviser, Karner Blue Capital, LLC, is as follows:
    Karner Blue Capital, LLC
    7315 Wisconsin Avenue #650W
    Bethesda, MD 20814
    All references to the address of the Fund’s investment adviser in the Prospectus and SAI are hereby modified accordingly.
    If you have any questions regarding the Fund, please call 1-855-KBANIML (855-522-6465).
  • Emerging Markets Small Cap
    the major difference is in portfolio construction. MFAPX is heavy in developed Europe -- at over 50% concentration. MIOPX is only 33% developed Europe and 35% in emerging markets (mainly developing Asia). MIOPX is riskier fund because of these allocations but also higher returns. There is some overlap in the companies that they both hold. They are both growth oriented funds managed by Kristian Heugh.
  • Possible tax changes going forth.
    The linked article talks only about tax increases. There are also tax decreases and related items. Here are a couple more proposed changes:
    "One benefit for wealthy taxpayers: Biden intends to eliminate the $10,000 cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions imposed by the TCJA."
    Baird: What to Expect From a Biden Presidency
    Not exactly a tax decrease, but on the table is changing the SS COLA calculation from using CPI-W to using CPI-E (elderly).
    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/23/president-biden-could-make-big-social-security-changes-this-year.html
    An increase not mentioned is the requirement that employees who deferred their payroll taxes last year repay them this year. "President Trump's executive action in August deferred, rather than reduced, tax obligations for employees earning up to $4,000 every two weeks." The silver lining is that the IRS has extended the repayment period from the original four months to twelve months.
    https://www.cfodive.com/news/irs-postpones-date-when-companies-must-complete-repaying-payroll-taxes-defe/593763/
  • Emerging Markets Small Cap
    I also own MIOPX which is about 35% emerging Asia. MIOPX is probably my favorite fund of the lot because it is international in its focus. If you look at its performance for just about any time frame on Morningstar or MFO Premium it's in the top 10%. Finally, I own Hennessy Japan which is a nice steady eddy fund that gives you good exposure for a global rebound in the economy.
    What are the differences between MIOPX and MFAPX?
    Thanks.
    Mona
  • Waiting for the Last Dance -- Jeremy Grantham
    this tread seems to be wandering off the title, but here is a good reason to question Grantham's advice. I love his pieces and read them regularly, but he has been wrong for a long time
    https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2021/02/15/the-case-for-emerging-markets?bt_ee=nQdQqooUUehguFxr8cHYJ3EYbfDtkNeaSkM5kRAHFeaBTpmHhq/SLnj/nDXwg7WE&bt_ts=1613473644073
  • Emerging Markets Small Cap
    Great discussion here. I bought MATFX 2 weeks ago. I really like the manager of this fund, Michael J. Oh, who has been lead manager of the fund since 2006. He writes some great commentary pieces that lay out his thinking on stock selection and where he sees opportunities. https://www.matthewsasia.com/funds/asia-growth/asia-innovators-fund/ . Scroll to the bottom for links to articles and podcast. Wonderful track record. With this I now hold FSEAX, CHIQ in emerging Asia. I also own MIOPX which is about 35% emerging Asia. MIOPX is probably my favorite fund of the lot because it is international in its focus. If you look at its performance for just about any time frame on Morningstar or MFO Premium it's in the top 10%. Finally, I own Hennessy Japan which is a nice steady eddy fund that gives you good exposure for a global rebound in the economy.
  • C19 vacc side effects
    Taking reports of side effects now the vaccines have been given to over 40 million people is fraught with difficulty, as there is no longer a placebo group to compare to. Anyone who has a serious medical problem after the vaccine will likely be reported to the FDA but that does not mean that the vaccine caused the stoke or heart attacks or whatever. The frequency of adverse reaction the FDA reports in post marketing studies are reflective of whatever reports they receive.
    30,000 people were in both of the Pfizer and Moderna studies which is a huge number. It is large enough to give us confidence that the most serious side effects would show up, and could be compared to their frequency in the placebo group.
    I would suggest people who are interested read the original FDA data both Moderna and Pfizer submitted. You can quickly go to the section on side effects and see the actual data that compares the vaccine recipients to their placebo counterparts. The tables are clear and easy to follow.
    Here is Moderna
    https://www.fda.gov/media/144434/download
    The text for "deaths" follows.
    "Serious Adverse Events Deaths As of December 3, 2020, 13 deaths were reported (6 vaccine, 7 placebo). Two deaths in the vaccine group were in participants >75 years of age with pre-existing cardiac disease; one participant died of cardiopulmonary arrest 21 days after dose 1, and one participant died of myocardial infarction 45 days after dose 2. Another two vaccine recipients were found deceased at home, and the cause of these deaths is uncertain: a 70-year-old participant with cardiac disease was found deceased 57 days after dose 2, and a 56-year-old participant with hypertension, chronic back pain being treated with opioid medication died 37 days after dose 1 (The official cause of death was listed as head trauma). One case was a 72-year-old vaccine recipient with Crohn’s disease and short bowel syndrome who was hospitalized for thrombocytopenia and acute kidney failure due to obstructive nephrolithiasis 40 days after dose 2 and developed complications resulting in multiorgan failure and death. One vaccine recipient died of suicide 21 days after dose 1. The placebo recipients died from myocardial infarction (n=3), intra-abdominal perforation (n=1), systemic inflammatory response syndrome in the setting of known malignancy (n=1), COVID-19 (n=1), and unknown cause (n=1). These deaths represent events and rates that occur in the general population of individuals in these age groups.
    Non-fatal Serious Adverse Events Among participants who received at least one dose of vaccine or placebo (N=30,351), the proportion of participants who reported at least one SAE from dose 1 to the primary analysis cutoff date (November 25, 2020) was 1% in the mRNA-1273 group and 1% in the placebo group. The most common SAEs occurring at higher rates in the vaccine group than the placebo group were myocardial infarction (0.03% in vaccine group, 5 cases vs. 3 cases in placebo group), cholecystitis (0.02% in vaccine group, 3 cases vs. 0 cases in placebo group), and nephrolithiasis (0.02% in vaccine group, 3 cases vs. 0 cases in placebo group). The small numbers of cases of these events do not suggest a causal relationship. The most common SAEs occurring at higher rates in the placebo arm than the vaccine arm, aside from COVID-19 (0.1% in placebo group), were pneumonia (0.05% in placebo group) and pulmonary embolism (0.03% in placebo group). Occurrence of other SAEs, including cardiovascular SAEs, were otherwise balanced between treatment groups. "
    I think it is fair to say these vaccines are very safe, and at least so far, very very effective
  • C19 vacc side effects
    Here is what I read (some of) every week, since the Journal has been making significant lay outreach efforts:
    https://www.nejm.org/covid-vaccine/faq#Clinicians
    from 6w ago:
    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMra2035343?query=featured_coronavirus
    and otherwise more info than most of us need:
    https://www.nejm.org/coronavirus?query=main_nav_lg
  • C19 vacc side effects
    @johnN: A search of the "Up-to-date" link which you have provided shows none of the information which you have listed.
    However, judging from the appearance, that information seems likely to have been derived from a reasonable source. Can you please provide a link to that source?
    Try this link instead:
    https://www.uptodate.com/contents/covid-19-mrna-vaccines-united-states-and-canada-authorized-for-use-drug-information?topicRef=8357&source=related_link#F55189491
    As one can tell from the intro, "The following adverse reactions and incidences are derived from the FDA issued emergency use authorizations", this page is not the source of the data. The data are from the clinical trials, i.e. the CDC links that I already gave.
    Without reading the CDC data, or the text quoted by sma3, one would not know that "younger patients" does not mean the same thing with Moderna data as with Pfizer data.
  • C19 vacc side effects
    Up TO DATE is probably the best single source for updated medical information available to health care professionals. It is not cheap ($350 a year) but it is peer reviewed and edited by top academic physicians, many of them from Hopkins, Harvard, Yale, Stamford and other "top ten" medical schools
    Here is their summary recommendation and summary of Side effects
    " For individuals who are eligible for vaccination according to local allocation priorities, we recommend COVID-19 vaccination (Grade 1B). Selection of vaccine depends on local availability. The different vaccines have not been studied head-to-head, and thus, comparative efficacy is uncertain."
    A Grade 1 B recommendation
    A Grade 1 recommendation is a strong recommendation. It means that we believe that if you follow the recommendation, you will be doing more good than harm for most, if not all of your patients.
    Grade B means that the best estimates of the critical benefits and risks come from randomized, controlled trials with important limitations (eg, inconsistent results, methodologic flaws, imprecise results, extrapolation from a different population or setting) or very strong evidence of some other form. Further research (if performed) is likely to have an impact on our confidence in the estimates of benefit and risk, and may change the estimates.
    Moderna Safety and side effects – Local and systemic adverse effects were dose dependent and relatively common after the second dose; most were of mild or moderate severity (ie, did not prevent daily activities or require pain relievers) [61]. Among participants younger than 65 years, fever occurred in 17 percent, and severe fatigue, headache, myalgias, and arthralgias occurred in 10, 5, 10, and 6 percent, respectively.
    Pfizer ( essentially the same) Safety and side effects – Local and systemic adverse effects were dose dependent and relatively common after the second dose; most were of mild or moderate severity (ie, did not prevent daily activities). Among participants younger than 55 years, fever occurred in 16 percent and severe fatigue, headache, and chills, occurred in 4, 3, and 2 percent, respectively [49]. Rates among older participants were slightly lower. "
    This has been what I have heard form friends and family who have been vaccinated. Young people have more side effects, but at the same time they are more able to deal with them.
  • Waiting for the Last Dance -- Jeremy Grantham
    I listened to that Grantham interview on Bloomberg 2-3 times one day recently. He lays out a convincing case. But there are equally good arguments on both sides.
    As far as Grantham’s argument goes he’s focused on three areas: (1) He thinks artificial risk asset impetus has been supplied from over a decade of easing by the Fed and other central banks. Since he doesn’t think this can continue much longer (deficits / unrealistically low rates) he sees an eventual popping of the “bubble”. (2) He sees a near hysterical chasing of return today irregardless of risk - a euphoria he equates with the final stages of bull markets. (3) He takes issue with high valuations in some sectors - technology particularity.
    It should be noted that Grantham is more sanguine re value stocks, thinking there are pockets of opportunity in that depressed sector. He sounds downright bullish on emerging markets - if one has a long enough time horizon.
    Each investor needs to consider his own time frame, risk tolerance, overall financial situation before undertaking any changes. I’ve grown a bit more cautious over the past couple months. The last two years were good to most investors. So, irrespective of Grantham, I see no compelling reason for a retiree to be overly aggressive at this point. I’m sharing how my allocation has changed in recent months as I try to protect 50+ years of accumulated retirement savings. Your situation is doubtless different and so should be your approach.
    * End of 2020: Alternatives 25%, Equity/Balanced Funds 25%, Diversified Bond 25%, Cash & cash alternatives 15%, Real Assets & Commodity 10%.
    * Today: Alternatives 33%, Equity/Balanced 20%, Diversified Bond 20%, Cash & cash alternatives 15%, Real Assets & Commodity 7%, Benchmark Fund (PRSIX) 5%.
    Explanatory Notes:
    - TMSRX accounts for about 50% of the alternative portion. PRPFX comprises most of the rest.
    - I’ve gone much shorter on the diversified bond holdings. DODLX is the riskiest one at 50%. The rest consists of short term bond funds like newly opened TSDLX.
    - I’ve moved most of the cash into a medium duration TIPS index fund,
    - I’ve switched from TRRIX to PRSIX as my benchmark and have added a small allocation to that fund. One difference between the two above funds ... PRSIX commits 0-10% to a Blackstone hedge fund. TRRIX does not.
    - There remains a small spec position in a mining fund.
  • C19 vacc side effects
    Here are excerpts from a disturbing report from The Washington Post.
    By Shira Rubin
    Feb. 15, 2021
    TEL AVIV — Israel's Health Ministry said Sunday that two Israelis who had recently recovered from the coronavirus have been reinfected by the variant first identified in South Africa, making a total of three such cases.
    The announcement comes even as Israel finally begins to see a drop in infection rates as a result of its nationwide vaccination drive.
    The Health Ministry this week recorded an additional 14 confirmed cases of the South African variant in Israel, bringing the total of number of such infections to 44, with 124 confirmed contacts and 36 infection chains. Health officials believe the numbers are substantially higher.
    In late January, the first Israeli, a 57-year-old man from central Israel, was reinfected with the South Africa coronavirus variant after returning from a trip to Turkey.
    Last month, U.S. pharmaceutical giant Pfizer and German biotech firm BioNTech released results from lab tests that, while not yet peer-reviewed, showed that their joint vaccine is effective against the N501Y mutation that is found in both the British and South African variants.
    In a statement, the companies said the preliminary findings “do not indicate the need for a new vaccine to address the emerging variants,” but they are “prepared to respond” with updates to their shot if necessitated by new strains.
    Another vaccine, co-developed by Oxford University and the British-Swedish pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca, proved to be only minimally effective in preventing mild and moderate forms of covid-19 caused by the variant first identified in South Africa.
  • C19 vacc side effects
    I find it fascinating that a large segment of the population is desperate to get vaccinated, but there are people who apparently fear side effects, which have generally been minimal and well tolerated, especially in older people.
    The delays in vaccinating a large portion of the population, mostly logistical, the total inability to vaccinate much of the less developed countries, unfortunately will give the UK and the South African variant a head start. There is more evidence that Pfizer (and probably Moderna too) will activate cell mediated immunity and be modestly protective against B1.351 ( the South African strain) but the exact extent is unclear, and it will certainly not be 95% seen with the original variant
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/11/pfizer-vaccine-strong-response-new-covid-variants?fbclid=IwAR2MDt35tFje1H9I2FgUhTk6xx44eHgs0hNieJQTIrfXz59z8ngs7RecURY
    There are still large numbers of people who believe this is all "fake news" and have to be forced to wear masks on airplanes etc, even now, providing a ready source of vulnerable people and infections.
    Given these idiots, the slow roll out of the vaccine, rising numbers of variants and the as of yet still completely unknown issue of vaccination preventing ( or not ) asymptomatic transmission, I believe Covid 19 will be with us forever. The hospitalization and death rates will undoubtedly improve, but it is unclear how much. Further variants may be more lethal.
    As we saw this summer, Covid 19 does not appear to be seasonal, like influenza, so there will likely be significant ongoing burden of disease all year long.
  • C19 vacc side effects
    Thankyou all
    You can also report severe side effects to your Healthcare agency and they may forward info to cdc
    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/expect/after.html
    Adverse Reactions
    Up-to-date
    https://www.uptodate.com/contents/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-vaccines-to-prevent-sars-cov-2-infection
    The following adverse reactions and incidences are derived from the FDA issued emergency use authorizations (EUAs) unless otherwise specified. Refer to EUAs for specific vaccines for information regarding reporting adverse reactions (FDA 2020; FDA 2021c).
    >10%:
    Gastrointestinal: Diarrhea (Pfizer: 8% to 11% [placebo: 6% to 12%]; higher in younger patients), nausea and vomiting (Moderna: 9% to 21% [placebo: 4% to 8%]; higher in younger patients and with second dose)
    Local: Pain at injection site (66% to 90% [placebo: 8% to 19%]; higher in younger patients), swelling at injection site (4% to 13% [placebo: 0.2% to 1.2%])
    Nervous system: Chills (Moderna: 5% to 49%; Pfizer: 6% to 35% [placebo: 3% to 6%]; higher in younger patients and with second dose), fatigue (33% to 68% [placebo: 17% to 33%]; higher in younger patients and with second dose), headache (Moderna: 25% to 63%; Pfizer: 25% to 52% [placebo: 18% to 34%]; higher in younger patients and with second dose)
    Neuromuscular & skeletal: Arthralgia (Moderna: 16% to 46%; Pfizer: 9% to 22% [placebo: 4% to 12%]; higher in younger patients and with second dose), axillary swelling (Moderna: Including axillary tenderness; 6% to 16% [placebo: 3% to 5%]; higher in younger patients), myalgia (Moderna: 20% to 62%; Pfizer: 14% to 37% [placebo: 5% to 14%]; higher in younger patients and with second dose)
    Miscellaneous: Fever (<1% to 16% [placebo: 0.1% to 0.9%]; higher in younger patients and with second dose)
    1% to 10%:
    Gastrointestinal: Nausea (Pfizer: 1%), vomiting (Pfizer: <1% to 2% [placebo: 0.3% to 1.2%]; higher in younger patients)
    Hematologic & oncologic: Lymphadenopathy (≤1% [placebo: <0.1% to 0.6%]; unsolicited) (Polack 2020)
    Hypersensitivity: Hypersensitivity reaction (Moderna: Including injection site rash and injection site urticaria; 2% [placebo: 1.1%])
    Local: Erythema at injection site (2% to 9% [placebo: 0.4% to 1.1%])
    <1%: Nervous system: Malaise (Pfizer)
    Frequency not defined:
    Dermatologic: Facial swelling (Moderna)
    Gastrointestinal: Appendicitis (Pfizer; unsolicited; data insufficient to determine causal relationship)
    Hypersensitivity: Anaphylaxis (CDC 2021; CDC/FDA 2021a; CDC/FDA 2021b)
    Local: Local swelling (at or near the site of dermal fillers [eg, face or lips]) (CDC 2021)
    Nervous system: Bell’s palsy (unsolicited; data insufficient to determine causal relationship)
    Neuromuscular & skeletal: Joint injury (shoulder; unsolicited) (Polack 2020)