Chinese stocks appear trending down past few wks months after housing crisis surfaced
Anyone tip-toed in yet??
DCA??
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/CHAU:NYSEARCA?window=YTD
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/17/business/economy/china-economy-gdp.html

https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/cryptocurrency/603600/bitcoin-etfs-cryptocurrency-funds
12 Bitcoin ETFs and Cryptocurrency Funds You Should Know
The rapidly growing world of Bitcoin ETFs will now include futures-based cryptocurrency funds. Here are 12 ways to ride the crypto wave.
Could be playing monies vegas styles

Excellent summation from BenWP
Those of us over 70 have likely witnessed the diminution of not just union power and influence, but also the rights and benefits of those non-union workers who labor in many industries. Along with what Ben already covered, toss in a number of prominent bankruptcies and “restructurings” plus legislative mandates which have had the effect of wiping out prior defined benefit pensions - sometimes for existing employees and at other times, as in the case of Michigan’s schools, for newer employees.
The airlines, in particular have seen egregious changes in this regard - American, being just one example. Essentially, the larger carriers have out-sourced much of their domestic operation to smaller “regional” airlines - whose flights often exceed 1,000 miles. These flight crews make scanty wages and are denied the other benefits and protections of the larger carriers who’s name they fly under. (And, statistically you’re less safe on one of them).
The 401-K, IRA, etc are nice; but they were not originally conceived of as replacements for public and company pensions. I don’t have time to explain all the reasons why the latter is a better plan for most workers, but I earnestly think it is. Both types of benefits - even better of course. A point often overlooked, even by those so affected, is that without the higher wages and benefits accorded union employees, the bar is set much lower for those not in the unions. In other words, the overall competitive wage & benefit level in a given region is lower without organized labor’s influence..

+1 PEGAX are the A shares available at Fido with a $1,000 minimum.

@Derf: Yes, indeed. I organized pickets one year and carried my 2-year-old daughter on the line another. We had a number of strikes.
It's worth saying that before MI became a "right-to-work" state, the consequences for striking illegally (i.e., against a public employer) were not strictly enforced by the Employment Relations Commission or the courts for the period of time when the parties were still at the table negotiating. Nowadays, I could well imagine a different application of the law given the party in power and the polarization of the electorate. Indiana and Wisconsin, which also were strong union states, saw public employee bargaining rights and protections severely curtailed in the last 10-12 years. An effort to recall Scott Walker in WI failed and the residents of IN did nothing when Mitch Daniels, by executive order, terminated public employee rights to bargain. There has been a failure, maybe even an apathy, to prevent the erosion of the hard-won rights of labor, even though it was obvious what was happening. Michael Moore has some valuable insights on this lamentable process. I believe it was he who pointed out that the failure of all and sundry to stand up to Reagan's firing of the air-traffic controllers set the tone for the all-out attack on labor and union members we have witnessed in the past 40 years.
The Lutheran pastor Martin Niemöller's 1946 confessional poem regarding German apathy in the face of the Nazis, contains this verse:
Then they came for the trade unionists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a trade unionist

Calamos Market Neutral Income Fund (CMNIX / CVSIX / CVSCX)
https://www.calamos.com/globalassets/media/documents/tax-center/calamos-market-neutral-income-fund-estimated-2021-capital-gains.pdf
Estimates for all other Calamos funds will be available Nov 1
https://www.calamos.com/resources/tax-center/

I use to be a fan of MWTRX, but stopped owning it a couple of years ago--glad I did after seeing its abysmal 2021 performance. I am not a fan of Intermediate Core/Core Plus funds which have struggled overall in 2021. If I was only interested in a well known and established Intermediate Core/Core Plus fund, to replace MWTRX, I would tend to lean toward DODIX. If you are looking for a lower risk and safer fund, then PTRIX, is a logical choice. Overall, sticking in this category, I personally like ANBEX. I will just add that I don't like PIMIX as a possible replacement for MWTRX--I consider PIMIX as a previously great fund, built on its performance shortly after the 2007/2008 financial crash, but it has ballooned into an AUM bloated fund, that now has to dabble in more risky assets to try and produce its income. Just recently PIMCO introduced PEGIX, a cousin of PIMIX in the multisector category, run by some of the same good PIMIX managers, and PEGIX is a very attractive newcomer, with great promise. I personally am focusing on shorter duration funds, that should do better in an inflationary market, and it is hard to find those in the Intermediate Core/Core Plus category.

Here's an NPR piece about how Ford raising his workers' wages helped to create the middle class. It concludes with the statement:

[A] century after Henry Ford started paying $5 a day, it's not at all clear that today's employers and workers can reach a similar bargain and reboot a 21st century version of the working middle class.

https://www.npr.org/2014/01/27/267145552/the-middle-class-took-off-100-years-ago-thanks-to-henry-ford
Just maybe it can happen.
This will benefit not only workers now but when they retire. The Social Security Primary Insurance Amount (what you'd get if you retired at your Full Retirement Age) is based on your past earnings, adjusted to the year you can first retire (minus 2). That adjustment is determined not by inflation, but rather by the rise in average wages.
So as the quality of life for workers rises over time (the so called "American Dream"), so does the value of one's SS benefits.
https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/awifactors.html
I'm cautiously optimistic about consumer discretionary. Not the Tiffany's, but the Disney's. Sure, costs at places like Disneyland will rise, but as in Ford's time maybe now many people will be able to afford that vacation or that night out at Applebee's that they've been putting off. And not just because of the pandemic.

@Jim0445,
This past Friday one of their traders read to me their internal communication which suggests the current target date is between April 2023 and October 2023. So, your $15 commission should be good at least until then. BTW, your rate was good for both buys and sells but TD recently removed commission on the sell trades for non-NTF funds. Did you mock up a trade to see if that change is applied to your account?

I just read Internet news that some TD Ameritrade accounts would not migrate to Schwab until 2023. Has anyone received definitive word on this? I'm hanging around waiting to see if Schwab honors my $15 commission rate (grandfathered from Scottrade) to buy non-NTF funds like Vanguard or Dodge & Cox.

I've cited this2017 M* piece before, but it's worth mentioning again. It expounds on what your wrote.
https://www.morningstar.com/articles/834221/is-pimco-income-the-new-total-return

Are you asking why the beta is so low in magnitude (since the price moves sharply, one might expect the beta to be higher), or why it's that high, or even why it isn't negative (since the US market has trended up in the past few months while ENIC has trended down)? I really can't tell what you're expecting from this chart.
One can take the data from the past 12 months and smooth it by looking at monthly returns. In seven months (Oct, Nov and Dec 2020, Jan, March, Aug and Sept 2021) it moved in the same direction as the US equity market; in the other five months it moved in the opposite direction. Consequently one might expect a relatively flat (small slope, i.e. beta) regression line.
See this PortfolioVisualizer chart comparing ENIC and VFIAX. Clicking on the Metrics shows a beta for ENIC of 0.84, but with a small R² of just 21%.
Regardless of what value the calculation produces for beta, it's pretty much meaningless because of the low correlation.
Of course I'm assuming that your beta is relative to the US market. If you're using a different (and hopefully better) benchmark, that could make the beta value meaningful.

Howdy folks,
It's going on as we watch. How can we play it?
All around us, not only in the US, but overseas as well, we're witnessing (and participating in) a General Strike by workers everywhere. 'Take this job and shove it. I ain't working here no more'.
Workers have more power than they've had in decades and they're using it. Deere and Kellogg are out and on the west coast, the TV and Movie peeps narrowly avoided a strike because management caved in on every issue. At Deere, they were offered 5-6% and the workers are saying, Stuff It. I seriously believe the west coast hospital workers will walk and think of their leverage. And folks, this is only the beginning. Pilots can't strike, but they sure can get sick. Oh, and think how easy it is right now to supplement your strike pay. McDonald's is hiring at $21 per hour. This seems to me that the workers are going to win. Tough to bet against them.
The pandemic has created a perfect storm for workers and employment in general.
1. Not safe to go to work because of the virus.
2. Kids at home.
3. Tired of receiving shit wages for shit work.
4. Additional unemployment benefits [although the bs the republicans spread about exacerbating the problem has proven to be just that - BS. Indeed, the states that cut benefits early not only didn't see any reduction in help wanted signs, but it actually hurt their overall economies more than the states that maintained them due to a reduced aggregate demand.]
5. Lack of some spending - travel, dining out, concerts, movies, etc. - has allowed many households to become cash flush.
6. Perfect opportunity to change careers.
7. Virtual options for financial gain - Ebay, Market Place, OnlyFans, etc. My barber has a friend, who is buying Amazon 2nds for peanuts and reselling them.
Sokay, how to play?
Watch for the companies that figure it out and take the 'high road' vs. the ones that don't. A very easy tell, is whether there are Help Wanted signs or not. The businesses with pervasive help wanted signs are having a very tough time even staying open. How many restaurants do you know with reduced hours and menus? Which are simply raising wages and benefits and not bitching.
New industries that get it (e.g. pot. I was talking with a budista and he said, they were receiving great pay and benefits and it was the best job he'd had in years).
Short? Anyone that relies on truck drivers. Again, POT. To drive a semi, you have to have a CDL. With a CDL, you are subject to random drug testing and pot has a half life of 30 days. Hell, they're pushing to allow teenagers to drive. Feh, in my state, you've got to be 21 to buy pot.
Just a start of a discussion.
and so it goes,
peace and wear the damn mask,
rono

It was a nice clean calculation (+1).
One needs to read the source cited for the estimated 2022 premium to discover the ultimate source. That's the 2021 annual report of the Medicare trustees.
https://www.cms.gov/files/document/2021-medicare-trustees-report.pdf
A few items in that report worth mentioning:
1. The premium is computed based on expected 2022 costs for Medicare (pdf p.26, second paragraph). That's no different from what virtually every other insurer does when setting premiums. This calculation is de novo; it does not look at what the premium was last year.
2. The $158.50 estimate does not (yet?) include the impact of covering Aduhelm (pdf p94, bottom paragraph). So that might affect the final numbers.
3. There's a $3 claw back for some premium reductions (hold harmless reductions and the 2021 cap on the premium increase). Pdf p. 89. This is projected to be added onto premiums through 2025 (pdf. p 90, 2nd full paragraph).
In a desperate attempt to relate this to mutual funds, I'll point out that this claw back is very similar to the claw back that mutual funds employ with temporary fee waivers. See, e.g. TRBUX (gross ER 0.29%, but net ER of 0.31% including a 0.02% claw back).

Hi @Derf -
Michigan legalized online gaming early in 2021. I’ve mixed feelings. The thought of some father squandering away the rent money spinning a roulette wheel or playing black-jack online is not a little troubling.. This (legalization) is part of a trend nationwide aimed at increasing state revenues. My “interest” has been limited to small wagers on NCAA basketball games being watched evenings during our darkest winter months. Looked at 2 or 3 betting sites and thought for what I wanted DKNG was tops. It’s a smooth operation. What’s appealing is the ability to buy and sell positions while the game is in progress. ISTM That to large extent you’re basically wagering against the “crowd” following along at the same time. I ended the season with a profit of $8.00 (yes - eight dollars). Have done somewhat better with the stock. :)
After moving to Fido it became possible to acquire individual stocks. So I plunked a very small amount down on DKNG - which I still own. One allure of having some individual stocks is they often move opposite the major indexes, actually serving to mitigate daily volatility inside a predominately fund centric portfolio. The biggest drawback is their wild fluctuations over time. (See @Crash’s recent post). Charts showed DKNG had topped $70 earlier in the year. It had fallen to the mid $40s when I picked a bit up. So it’s ranged from over $70 to below $40 this year. It’s probably the smallest investment (amount) of anything I own.
Since announcing an attempt to acquire a large European gaming company a month or more ago, DKNG has been in a downward slide - mid $40 range at present. Here’s a FT LINK to that takeover story - not yet completed. Here’s an alternative STORY if unable to link the FT article. (It’s normal for acquiring companies’ stock prices to fall initially.) A short seller with a good track record (for integrity) broadsided DKNG in June with a report one of their recent acquisitions had ties to organized crime in Europe. That’s the main reason the stock fell back than.
I wasn’t aware of the SPAC deal you referenced. However, it’s likely part of a a “dog-eat-dog” battle going on among the top betting sites in the U.S. There are more than a half dozen players, with DraftKings and Fan Duel neck & neck. MGM in pursuit. It’s thought the market will only support about 3. So the fight is over market dominance before it’s too late. That may shed light on your story. There is an investigation into the charges against DKNG by the U.S. government - not sure which agency. And a big unknown is NY state. Apparently they will allow only some players to operate there when online gaming starts. The big fear is that taxes on their profits will be so high the companies won’t be able to operate profitably.
Not sure if these companies qualify as “meme“ types - but people should be aware they are wildly popular among small retail investors and, hence, possibly overvalued. Cathie Wood picked up a slug of DKNG about the time I acquired my holding.

I can't buy PIMIX in Fidelity 401k...Grrrrrrrrrrrrrr! I get so disappointed when that happens...it happens a lot!

If your heart is set on Pimco Income, you may be able to buy the somewhat more expensive institutional I-3 share class PIPNX in your Fidelity 401K.
It's a solid long term holding, though it has at best been mediocre in the past three years relative to its peers (46th percentile). You can see that in this M* chart, which compares it to the average multisector bond fund (which it tracks very closely) and to the average high yield bond fund (which has greater volatility but otherwise follows a similar path).

- “Assuming your question is in good faith and not a rabbit hole invitation...”
- “Other posters have presented studies to show it does NOT work. I've argued that such studies produce statistics that support the Three Kinds of Lies.”
Arguments others may have made to the contrary need not be characterized as lies. It is possible for good and rational people to view the same evidence and arrive at different conclusions.

Yeah, you kind of short-handed what I've posted here. I did NOT state any specific poster lied.
Here ya go (again)...
Studies produce statistics. A very old saying about statistics (maybe only amongst people who professionally crunched data for a living for three+ decades?) goes like this....
There are three kinds of lies.
1. Lies
2. Damned lies.
3. Statistics.
Meaning, in this specific discussion...
Any study that produced/produces a statistic to show that BTD does NOT work is effectively a lie in relation to the ACTUAL results of of my BTD trades since March 2020.
And there are/will be thousands of other examples of BTD success stories and IMO they can't simply be dismissed/treated as outliers.
Adios on this thread.

I can't buy PIMIX in Fidelity 401k...Grrrrrrrrrrrrrr! I get so disappointed when that happens...it happens a lot!

$1,213.00 will be the GROSS in 2022, prior to Medicare taking its cut. Yes, I'm not taxed on SS. But the monthly Medicare premium will take me down to what figure, I'm wondering?

Hmmm...
Did you not see my prior post on this thread that shows your ESTIMATED calc?
Or maybe you did and either don't think it's correct/want a 2nd opinion?

Part of investing. Individual stocks can really get knocked around.