M* Discussion with David Giroux A few quotes from the interview.
Giroux: First of all, I would say, if you think about the fixed-income sleeve of the CAF, we've never really been Barclays Agg kind of index. I know a lot of our peers are. We historically haven't owned a lot of Treasuries, we haven't owned a lot of mortgage-backed securities, and really—and many investment-grade corporates, we really don't own a lot of that. So, coming to this year, the largest portion of our fixed-income portfolio is floating-rate bank debt that is basically flattish on the year despite the equity carnage and the fixed-income carnage. I've never been a big believer that you have to have that Barclays Agg be your fixed-income allocation. We go where we think the best risk/reward is. We think bank debt is really, really attractive and high quality, high yield is also quite attractive on a long-term basis.
Now, having said that, though, to your point, rates have risen dramatically. So, we have started buying Treasuries. This would be the third time in the last decade we started buying Treasuries. We bought Treasuries in '18; we bought Treasuries in '13; and we started buying Treasuries this year. Treasuries today are about 8% of our portfolio, and our cash level has gone down, both by adding the equities as well as funding those Treasury purchases. We're going to take the other side of the argument. We actually believe rates, if you think about it, a three- to five-year horizon are more likely to be lower than higher. And if you have that view and now you're earning 3% on Treasuries, on five-year Treasuries, it actually makes sense to own a little bit Treasuries, which we do now.
Blue: Great. You mentioned coming into the year optimistic on floating-rate debt. Did you fund any of your Treasury purchases through that allocation? Or do you still have an allocation to floaters in that fixed-income portfolio?
Giroux: Yeah, we haven't sold any of our floating-rate debt at all. Essentially, our cash position, I believe, coming into the year was high single digits, low double digits. And essentially, that's going down to 3% to 4% today. And again, that's funded the Treasury purchases as well as increasing our equity allocation to take advantage of the dislocation we've seen in the equity market year-to-date.
Healthcare VGHCX, Value TBGVX I use RYH as a benchmark for the healthcare sector. Its performance and the VG fund are tied for
1 yr, but RYH has outperformed 3 and 5 yrs. The sector has disappointed in recent years, especially in biotech, as noted by
@sma3.
Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum. Hi
@Baseball_Fan . There is a lot of risk in the markets, and some of it reminds me of Tulipmania with high valuations. Bitcoin is now down 35% YTD. Rising interest rates, high inflation, supply chain disruptions and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have upended normal investment models. Price to Earnings have begun compressing as they often do during inflationary times with high valuations.
YTD, my baseline fund, the Vanguard Wellesley Fund, has lost 8%, while the Global Wellesley has done slightly better. Safe haven government intermediate bond funds are down 7% YTD while core bond funds are down
10%. As the markets started swooning, I sold the most volatile and added better performers including real return and commodities. I maintain a balanced portfolio, and am down less than the Wellesley fund.
I favor low volatile funds, some of which have a tactical, or "black box" approach. I prefer to leave this to the pros to do the heavy lifting for me. I spread the risk across several of the funds so that any individual failure will not impact me much. I limit overall exposure in case of a swan event. I own multi-strategy (BAMBX, TMSRX), multi-alternative/macro-trading (GPANX, REMIX), systematic trend (PQTAX), real return (PIRMX/PZRMX, FSRRX), Infrastructure (GLFOX), along with utilities and consumer staples, all of which have reduced the volatility in my portfolio. I am also researching CABNX. Each has made more (lost less) than the Vanguard Wellesley. I have also increased cash.
I believe the risk of recession is high for next year. I suspect the markets will calm down in the near term and recover, but expect lower lows over the next two years.
Best wishes.
Bitcoin Crash?
401k Transfer I had rolled over from a Fidelity managed 401(k) to a Fidelity rollover IRA. Before I rolled over, I made sure that the funds invested in the 401(k) are all Fidelity funds that are also available to the retail and they rolled over those funds to the retail class of the same funds, preventing any out of market issues.
It makes sense not to go from a brokerage linked 401(k) to one that only has select mutual funds. If you ever decide to rollover the 401(k) to an IRA, I would do it at Fidelity to make the rollover smooth, even if ultimately you move the money to a different brokerage.
Healthcare VGHCX, Value TBGVX Announcement of Jean Hynes as CEO was made in September 2020 and was to be effective in July 2021. VG Independent Advisor pulled the plug on VGHCX in December 2020. So, it was soon after the announcement but well before her start as CEO.
Healthcare VGHCX, Value TBGVX It is worth knowing that Dan Weiner who has published the Independent Advisor for Vanguard Investors (for decades), long ago felt Hynes was doing such a poor job running VGHCX that he advised his readers to sell it and just use the Vanguard Health Care ETF VHT. He has between 8 and 14% of his portfolios in VHT
He has a "hold" ie Sell on VGHCX but rates VHT a buy still.
Mr. Wiener recommended the Vanguard Health Care Fund for many years.
The fund was subsequently sold in all three active Independent Advisor model portfolios -
Growth, Conservative Growth, and Income.
IIRC, Mr. Wiener pulled the plug on the Health Care Fund after Jean Hynes
became the Wellington Management CEO on June 30, 202
1.
Healthcare VGHCX, Value TBGVX I haven't looked closely at VGHAX in a while.
IIRC, the fund performed well under Edward Owens.
It's performance has been about average during Jean Hynes' solo tenure.
Ms. Hynes is the only named manager for VGHAX and she also became Wellington CEO in 2021.
It seems like she has a lot on her plate...
M* Discussion with David Giroux T. Rowe Price's David Giroux shares his thoughts about bond positioning, beaten-down Big Tech, and whether a recession is imminent.
Video
Healthcare VGHCX, Value TBGVX Thanks for pointing out VG Independent Advisor's past unfavorable view on VGHCX.
M* also notes underperformance since 2016 and that its foreign exposure is high at 25%+. Hynes has been comanager since 2008 and manager since 2013. M* still has (backward-looking) 4* and (forward-looking) Silver ratings for it.
That didn’t hurt Hynes’ career at Wellington Management as she rose from administrative assistant through the ranks to CEO in 2021. I was hoping to see some insights into where Wellington Management is going but there wasn’t any.
Healthcare VGHCX, Value TBGVX It is worth knowing that Dan Weiner who has published the Independent Advisor for Vanguard Investors (for decades), long ago felt Hynes was doing such a poor job running VGHCX that he advised his readers to sell it and just use the Vanguard Health Care ETF VHT. He has between 8 and 14% of his portfolios in VHT
He has a "hold" ie Sell on VGHCX but rates VHT a buy still.
401k Transfer I found out another small tidbit...my old 401k at Fido allowed almost any security purchase through their BrokerageLink program. The new 401k is MF only! No ETF's, Stiocks etc
I can live with that but I started to dabble in ETF's ...SCHD, DIVO, FM, GLD
So, the 2 factors are what I mentioned above - some limitations of new 401k product availablity AND the liquidation/No 'In Kind' Tranfers allowed! My best option might be to move old 401k to the existing IRA rollover!
401k Transfer Regarding option #2 - Transfer previous 401(k) to new 401(k).
Since you have to sell all positions, this is a risky move in the current volatile market environment.
I have the same concern for option #3 if assets can't be transferred in-kind into an IRA.
You may be able to implement a work-around by selling non-transferrable funds and buying transferrable funds prior to initiating the transfer. You would need to analyze this maneuver to determine whether or not it could be potentially beneficial in your specific situation.
The liquidation requirement is only if I take old 40
1k and want to move that to the new 40
1k! They wont allow an 'in-kind' TOA. I have to sell and move the cash proceeds to new 40
1k.
Remember when a 500 point drop in the Dow was a “big deal”? The OP also gave the day’s losses for the S&P and NASDAQ. Maybe I should have put all 3 in the header.
Wasn’t trying to make any particular point except that losses (ie 500 on the Dow) that might have provoked a post, comment (or mild scream) on the board a few months ago were becoming more commonplace and eliciting little reaction. Agree the Dow isn’t the best barometer. It is, however, widely watched and is usually placed first, above all the other indexes in the financial press.
Whichever index(s) you watch, if you string together multiple daily losses of around 1.5% they can add up in a hurry.
Latest losses according to Bloomberg …
Dow Jones -11% YTD
S&P -15.5% YTD
NASDAQ -24.5% YTD
Healthcare VGHCX, Value TBGVX Healthcare VGHCX and value TBGVX are featured in Barron's this week. Summaries are from
LINK.
Barron's Issue (may need subscription)
https://www.barrons.com/magazine?mod=BOL_TOPNAVJean HYNES, CEO (07/202
1- ) of Wellington Management and Manager of VG Healthcare VGHCX (active). VGHCX has exposure in biopharma (overweight), healthcare services (overweight), medical technology (underweight as many stocks have runup). Biotech (IBB) have been hurt by speculation, IPOs, difficult clinical testing and FDA approval process, and higher interest rates; many biotech are trading below their cash levels and their further downside may be limited. Megatrends include revolution in biology (ILMN, MRNA, PFE, AZN, TMO, DHR, etc) and healthcare digitization (UNH, ANTM, etc). We may be better prepared for the next pandemic. AI will have a huge impact in future. Unfortunately, many diseases have not received much attention or investments. (Nothing about Wellington Management)
FUNDS. Comanagers Thomas SHRAGER and Robert WYCKOFF of international value TBGVX (ER
1.37%) don’t rely on old value metrics such as book value, but on the newer EV/EBIT (more relevant for buying whole companies), etc. The current tectonic shift to value started in 2020/Q4. Higher rates also favor value vs growth. Fund holds a mix of high-quality steady companies, cyclicals and deep-value; Europe accounts for 42%.
Also
REVIEW. BIOTECH stocks are in a bear market (XBI -39% YTD, -6
1% since 02/202
1).
120+ biotech have market value less than their net cash on hand. Only a handful of biotech are doing well or OK – AMGN, VRTX, IONS, ALKS, EXEL, MIRM, ALBO, VIVO, IRWD, etc.
Allocation/Balanced Funds, Past & Future - MFO 5/1/22 I have thought about these BRK problems too for a long time as a shareholder. On the optimistic side I feel:
1. Apple after Steve Jobs didn’t feel like it would be able to carry on. But strong institutions have a way to last and thrive will beyond the first generation.
2. We will get to a Day when the index fund holders will get direct ability to vote on proposals. It might be too much for most people to handle. But the options Are more likely to exist in the future than not. The form and design will be decided by the Congress or the sausage makers.
3. Notwithstanding the above, there will be a class of shareholders that will go along with Warren. Their children might not want the shares either. Being an investor today requires having faith in institutional strength beyond the next few years COMPARED to institutional strength elsewhere.
Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show May
13th Episode:
What is happening with U.S. energy independence? After decades of decline, U.S. oil production picked up significantly in the last decade and a half, largely thanks to the shale oil revolution, to the point where it surpassed Russia and Saudi Arabia’s output to become the world’s largest oil producer. Despite that achievement, Petrie says the U.S. and the rest of the world are now approaching a possible energy crisis caused by a number of factors. One of the biggest: some new geopolitical realities, what he calls geopolitical fragility. We will discuss them at length as well as why he believes the current elevated levels of oil prices are unsustainable and why the of traditional energy stocks is as well!
