Bear market coming? @WABAC- Thanks so much for your note. I well remember the old Customs Building on Kearny Street- at
18 I first went there to enlist in the Coast Guard; four years later went there to get my FCC license. I loved the LORAN service- after the year at Tarumpitao Point they sent me to another LORAN station up at Point Arena in Mendocino County.
My folks had a weekend place at Guerneville, which is roughly halfway between SF and Point Arena. I learned to drive on Highway
1, which in those days was typically a
1 1/2 lane "highway" where you were lucky to have a painted line down the center. Great memories, for sure. My four year Coast Guard stint and my final 20 years with San Francisco Public Safety Radio were the most rewarding years of my employment life.
Semper Paratus.
Sell JHQAX?? Buy LCORX? I was a long-time holder of JHQAX but sold it a couple of months ago due to its rather disappointing performance this year. I replaced the fund with PIMCO's Managed Futures fund PQTIX/PQTAX which has been performing quite well in the current market environment. Its standard deviation is a pleasing 9.1%, and YTD the fund is up 16.5%. Its 3 year total return is 15.1%.
I have also been impressed by CDC. According to M*, 70% of this ETF's portfolio is classified as "value".
It has exposure to high-dividend-yielding, large-cap U.S. stocks that have at least four consecutive quarters of net positive earnings.
It offers a disciplined and balanced investment approach that manages risk by automatically reducing exposure to stocks during periods of significant market declines, and reinvests when market prices have further declined or rebound:
YTD=2.5%
1 YR=9.6
3 YR=19.4
SEC Yield=3.1%
Std Dev=15.6
Good luck,
Fred
Musk to Buy Twitter I have relatives who have driven TSLAs With the AC on Radio etc, the range is no where near 200 More like 125 to 150.
Let’s hope they have strong bladders. Sounds like a lot of 30-minute coffee breaks on a cross country journey.
Sell JHQAX?? Buy LCORX? Mortgage & GNMA funds are good for stable rate environments. But due to their negative-convexity, they don't have high upside when rates fall (re-fi go up, duration goes down), but have higher downside when rates rise (re-fi go down, duration goes up). They have spreads over Treasuries to compensate for these risks and their managers can handle these known issues to some extent.
FUAMX (intermediate treasury) has fared even worse than FGMNX this year (down
10%) as rates have risen. Unfortunately, it doesn’t have a very long track record. However Price has an intermediate treasury (PRTIX) with a
10 year track record. It is off nearly
10% this year and the
10 year average has fallen to 0.70%. By contrast, Price’s PRGMX has lost a percentage less this year and comes in at a 0.66%
10 year return. Not sure what the point here is except that GNMAs have been a little less devastated this year than intermediate treasuries. Tough year for high quality bonds.
