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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • 2 useful MF/ETF/CEF comparison tools
    I have used these 2 for quick comparisons of returns, risk ,fees and holdings. They may be useful if you are not aware of them.
    1) Marketwatch Fund compare. Recently updated. allows comparison of 10 funds and or etf"s. at one time.
    2) Ameritrade fund compare. Allows you to compare 5 MF"s and /or ETF's and/or CEF's at one time. Very useful is the ratings/risk tab which allows you to compare return vs risk for the funds you enter over various time periods. Happy investing folks. Fundly
  • lewis braham article in barron's
    nice article in Barron's on corpbonds by Lewis this weekend.
    What is the typical spread over 10 year treasury for your typical BBB rated bond? where did it get it to in mar 20?
  • Sell JHQAX?? Buy LCORX?
    I have no opinion on your question. Sorry. I’m sure others will
    But you raise the difficult question of where to invest for low risk while earning something above what short term bonds would return. Toughest I’ve ever seen it.
    I have a bit in QMN. A very low volatility etf that in the past has pulled 2 or 3% annually. Off 5% this year. I looked at CVSIX which has an excellent long term record. Off 3-4% this year. Just for the hell of it I looked at the very fine FGMNX. Way down this year and the result has to bring its once stellar 10 year return down to virtually 0. One interesting exception is CCOR - however on a day to day basis it is quite volatile. Not important to most. Oops. Double checked. That one’s down 3% YTD. With my luck, were I to buy it it would promptly turn south. Funds that invest in dividend players can do some very strange things over shorter periods.
    The bond collapse has affected all manner of funds. That’s all I can determine. And the charts all exhibit a similar “nose down” pattern which gained force perhaps a month or two ago …
  • What Europe's ban of Russian oil could mean for energy markets – and your gas prices
    So far I am up 1% this year but only because of energy and commodities. Value has done better than tech "but you can't eat relative performance!" The winners are just basic stuff, ie oil and DBA, because my small positions in water, rare minerals and copper have all dropped. Clearly the market thinks China's Covid problem will kill EV production
    If I were braver I would load up on REMX ( strategic metals) GMET ( green metals ) and SPPP (platinum and palladium) As soon as supply chains snafus are sorted out and "Zero Covid" either wins or the Chinese learn to live with it, basic materials will probably soar.
  • Musk to Buy Twitter
    I have relatives who have driven TSLAs With the AC on Radio etc, the range is no where near 200 More like 125 to 150.
    Everyone is holding their breath for the Truck, but who wants to spend that kinda money on a vehicle that won't go cross country or more than 300 miles?
    Cousin in LA says three of his friends TSLAs just quit. Had to get new cars.
    Recent seeking alpha article compared car companies on revenue, sales etc. TSLA stock far far overpriced. Not sue however why he has 2018 data in some of the charts. The contrasts between GM F and TSLA stock is stark
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4507535-tesla-overvalued-by-85-26-percent-and-not-a-technology-company
  • January MFO Ratings Posted
    Good observation that I ran into elsewhere too.
    While YTD is important, indexes had peaks at different times. #DJIA, #SP500 peaked around New Year, #NasdaqComp & #R2000 in early-Nov 2021, highflyers & EMs in Feb 2021. Those hi-to-lo provide a better assessment of damage.
  • January MFO Ratings Posted
    After brief March respite, markets continued to sell off in April, especially tech and bonds.
    Other than pure energy bet or market short, alternative funds may be only bright spot. AQR boasts nine with double-digit returns YTD.
    The Decline Continues
    image
  • Is HAPY for the Happy Few?
    An 80-1 shot wins; is there any kind of a lesson to be learned?
  • A Case for Small Caps?
    ***Open to thoughts…***
    Hello
    Nobody knnow for sure, look at 2008-2009 ( downtrends for 7 8 months) and 2020 flash covid crash (stocks continue downtrend 6 -7 wks). We may have another 10 15% haircuts, very difficult to tell. I am holding pattern have not add much past few weeks. When you see trends reverse you have plenty opportunities to add more uptrends maybe in 3- 6 weeks
    Friends say watch sp500 @ 3900-3970 major resistance levels, if break more pains ahead next few weeks to 3600.
    I understand your points exactly, SMALLCAPS so cheap now and we want to be jumpy...if you have a long term (can stomach -stand the pressure) horizon maybe just pour small amounts in testing waters slowly....our 401k still 90/10 every 2 weeks no changes since 2006 and we did very well. 4 5 months downtrends nasdaq very hard to stand
  • A Case for Small Caps?
    @JonGaltill: I am reluctantly facing the fact that my current SCG funds would have to rally an amazing amount to get me back to level. The arithmetic is against me.
    SCV has had some success, notably Bridgeway’s BRSVX. Charles’ write up on bond, equity, and alternative funds above water this year mentions Aegis Value. The manager looks to be a genius by transforming AVALX into a highly concentrated fund, 71% basic materials and 23% energy; that is not a diversified fund in my mind’s eye. The value equity funds that showed some success YTD all hold big energy positions. My fave, one that did not make the list, is GQEPX, up 6% YTD. It is wrongly classified as a LCG fund by M*, but the holdings tilt towards value.
    The managed futures egg heads really look like geniuses this year; several AQR offerings and PIMCO’s PQTAX are shooting the lights out. However, those are funds I have never considered for purchase because they were real plodders for many years and my understanding of what they do is inadequate. PQTAX holds 40% in the home town commodities fund; will the PMs of these concentrated funds be able to turn their ships around quickly when the prices of « stuff » return to earth? Will alternative funds resume their pedestrian ways when the current crisis wanes?
  • What Europe's ban of Russian oil could mean for energy markets – and your gas prices
    ....And as we saw before the week-end, OPEC+ continues to increase output very gradually. My TRAMX continues on the plus-side in 2022, but it's falling, though more gradually than a lot of other stuff. But though one might at first glance figure it's full of oil and gas..... it's NOT. It's HALF in FINANCIALS. Only 1.6% in Energy stocks. That's probably very prudent on the part of the Portfolio Manager. For Energy, my eye is on single-stock MLP ET right now. Let my accountant worry about the ins-and-outs of the K-1 Form. ... I continue to reduce bonds in the portfolio, and rescuing profit from stock funds (PRIDX) before the share price falls any further. ..... On the other hand, is PRIDX now a bargain? Yes--- if someone has the stomach for the volatility. Along with Abby Joseph Cohen, I'm concentrating on being mostly on the domestic side of the Market for the next while, at least. Among my stock funds, I'm already one-third in Financials. Will I turn out to be early, or just WRONG on that bet?
  • Musk to Buy Twitter
    @ Derf- Even in hot-to-trot California things are dicey. A recent survey found that almost 25% of existing charging stations are either inaccessible or out of service at any given time. By far the larger factor is the installation of home charging stations: how many people are actually going to wait for half an hour or more to charge at some public station? Especially if when they get there they have to wait in line for a charger to become available?
    By the way, the survey that I mentioned did not include any Tesla charging stations- those are not available to the general public- only Tesla vehicles.
    I get the distinct impression that many of the upcoming electric vehicles will start availability in the next couple of years. How many years does anyone think that it's going to take to get a reasonably sufficient charging infrastructure into place? And who exactly is going to pay for all of that?
    None of this should be interpreted to suggest that I'm against the transition- in the long run, it's necessary. But I'm very skeptical that it's going to be a smooth one.
    ☞ Link to article: "California wants more electric cars. But many public chargers don’t work"
  • Musk to Buy Twitter
    @Old_Joe : Are you putting forth the idea of a two car charging station not enough for a town of app. 5700 ? That's the number we have. Better yet the county is installing 100 solar charging stations. Hells- bells , I'll take a guess that the cloudy days out number the sunny days at least 2 to 1 in my part of the woods. Solar, now I'm wondering if the reporter got it right ?!
    I'm wondering if the drive up lanes have shorten since gas hit $4 + a gallon. nothing like 6 to 10 cars or more waiting to get their food.
    Have a good one, Derf
  • Bear market coming?
    +1. Thanks, Old_Joe. When I saw that pic, I fell in love with it. Right here on Oahu, but one I've not visited. Looks idyllic, eh? New spots keep popping up for me to visit. ..... Question: what's a very popular Filipino whine/wine? ANSWER: "When are ya gonna take me to Palawan?"
  • Bear market coming?
    @Crash- Your pic is eerily reminiscent of my year of isolated duty as an electronics tech at Tarumpitao Point on Palawan Island in the Philippines. The Coast Guard had chains of very high-powered navigation broadcast stations all over the word at that time (1950s/60s), many located in very isolated and remote areas. (Those stations were made obsolete by satellite GPS technology.)
    Certainly one of the best years of my life.
  • Musk to Buy Twitter
    I think this is one of the more interesting tech stories this year. . . and my interest has ZERO to do with politics or free speech. It has to do with the mismanagement of the company for many years and how Elon will turn it around in short order. He's already (cryptically) presented some creative ideas on how to turn around the company. He's a prolific user of Twitter and spends close to ZERO on advertising. Why would he? He's had the audience of Twitter etc. I continue to think he's three steps ahead of everyone else.
    Will there be obstacles in the purchase? You bet! Re: The "Delay" Lawsuit - It's interesting that the plaintiff stands to gain $20M from the sale Edit/Add: and the pension fund will be negatively impacted (in a big way) if the sale doesn't go through. Oh, and if he had a pre-arrangement with Dorsey et al... why would he have threatened a "tender"? A tall leap by the pension fund and even a "pact" does not equal 15% single interested stockholder.
    There's plenty of people against the idea. His financing and concentration will not be an obstacle. I'd bet on that.
  • A Case for Small Caps?
    Media is reporting that Nasdaq Comp is in a bear market (more than 20% decline from recent high). But small-caps are ALSO in a bear market from their highs on 11/8/21. And look at that SC-growth stinker. Mid-March low didn't hold, so be careful.
    Small-caps IWM, IWO (growth), IWN (value) from 11/8/21 highs (chart may default to 1-yr). https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=IWM&compare=IWO,IWN&id=p93474469989
  • A Case for Small Caps?
    I know it sounds crazy to even ask the question given the market but consider this:
    More than 45% of Nasdaq stocks are down 50% 1 in 2!
    More than 22% are down 75%
    More than 5% are down 90%
    The current buyers of tech stocks are purchasing a 60% “discount” to what they were a few months ago. The indexes are faring better only because of the mega cap tech companies: Apple, Tesla, Google and Microsoft as they are approaching 40% of the index. They are generating so much cash and keeping the indices a float. So, if you’re a bear on the Nasdaq at this point… you are saying you are bearish on those four companies. The rest of the Nasdaq has already been decimated. This started around Nov of last year. Given this, are we at the bottom? If so, is now the right time to invest in small cap? Open to thoughts…
  • M* -- 2022 Selloff Has Left the U.S. Stock Market Undervalued
    I haven’t yet found Steven M Sears’ weekly Barron’s column very helpful. Deals a lot in sophisticated options strategies. This week Sears suggests in his lead-in that heightened fear makes now a good time to buy stocks. (On that I don’t know.) But than he tries to have his cake and eat it too by first citing Paul Tutor Jones who called the ‘87 crash as saying he wouldn’t currently want to own any stocks or bonds and than citing Warren Buffet who has been finding value.
    Sears aside, when I make a feeble attempt to evaluate some stocks, the historical return charts don’t appear outrageous / bubble-like, some of the businesses seem more or less recession proof and the p/e ratios look fair if not compelling. My thinking remains that the tech heavy S&P is probably overvalued, but that there are opportunities elsewhere. Just the view from a novice. Could be wrong. I won’t suggest any particular fund or stock. Do your own due diligence.
    Re the ARKK type “innovation” stocks: Not included in above meandering. These are fraught with peril. They’ve been tripped up by higher interest rates. That’s a 2 pronged sword. First, it makes carrying a lot of debt (often floating rate) very expensive and second it deters would be acquirers who would need to finance the acquisition with higher interest rate credit. I do own 1 (DKNG) in limited amount. By buying and selling often I’ve managed to get the average price paid down to $15. The stock closed just above $13 Friday - a far cry from its $70 top only a year and a half ago.