What Europe's ban of Russian oil could mean for energy markets – and your gas prices ....And as we saw before the week-end, OPEC+ continues to increase output very gradually. My TRAMX continues on the plus-side in 2022, but it's falling, though more gradually than a lot of other stuff. But though one might at first glance figure it's full of oil and gas..... it's NOT. It's HALF in FINANCIALS. Only 1.6% in Energy stocks. That's probably very prudent on the part of the Portfolio Manager. For Energy, my eye is on single-stock MLP ET right now. Let my accountant worry about the ins-and-outs of the K-1 Form. ... I continue to reduce bonds in the portfolio, and rescuing profit from stock funds (PRIDX) before the share price falls any further. ..... On the other hand, is PRIDX now a bargain? Yes--- if someone has the stomach for the volatility. Along with Abby Joseph Cohen, I'm concentrating on being mostly on the domestic side of the Market for the next while, at least. Among my stock funds, I'm already one-third in Financials. Will I turn out to be early, or just WRONG on that bet?
Musk to Buy Twitter @ Derf- Even in hot-to-trot California things are dicey. A recent survey found that almost 25% of existing charging stations are either inaccessible or out of service at any given time. By far the larger factor is the installation of home charging stations: how many people are actually going to wait for half an hour or more to charge at some public station? Especially if when they get there they have to wait in line for a charger to become available?
By the way, the survey that I mentioned did not include any Tesla charging stations- those are not available to the general public- only Tesla vehicles.
I get the distinct impression that many of the upcoming electric vehicles will start availability in the next couple of years. How many years does anyone think that it's going to take to get a reasonably sufficient charging infrastructure into place? And who exactly is going to pay for all of that?
None of this should be interpreted to suggest that I'm against the transition- in the long run, it's necessary. But I'm very skeptical that it's going to be a smooth one.
☞ Link to article:
"California wants more electric cars. But many public chargers don’t work"
Musk to Buy Twitter @Old_Joe : Are you putting forth the idea of a two car charging station not enough for a town of app. 5700 ? That's the number we have. Better yet the county is installing
100 solar charging stations. Hells- bells , I'll take a guess that the cloudy days out number the sunny days at least 2 to
1 in my part of the woods. Solar, now I'm wondering if the reporter got it right ?!
I'm wondering if the drive up lanes have shorten since gas hit $4 + a gallon. nothing like 6 to
10 cars or more waiting to get their food.
Have a good one, Derf
Bear market coming? +1. Thanks, Old_Joe. When I saw that pic, I fell in love with it. Right here on Oahu, but one I've not visited. Looks idyllic, eh? New spots keep popping up for me to visit. ..... Question: what's a very popular Filipino whine/wine? ANSWER: "When are ya gonna take me to Palawan?"
Bear market coming? @Crash- Your pic is eerily reminiscent of my year of isolated duty as an electronics tech at Tarumpitao Point on Palawan Island in the Philippines. The Coast Guard had chains of very high-powered navigation broadcast stations all over the word at that time (
1950s/60s), many located in very isolated and remote areas. (Those stations were made obsolete by satellite GPS technology.)
Certainly one of the best years of my life.
FOMC Statement, 5/4/22 
Musk to Buy Twitter I think this is one of the more interesting tech stories this year. . . and my interest has ZERO to do with politics or free speech. It has to do with the mismanagement of the company for many years and how Elon will turn it around in short order. He's already (cryptically) presented some creative ideas on how to turn around the company. He's a prolific user of Twitter and spends close to ZERO on advertising. Why would he? He's had the audience of Twitter etc. I continue to think he's three steps ahead of everyone else.
Will there be obstacles in the purchase? You bet! Re: The "Delay" Lawsuit - It's interesting that the plaintiff stands to gain $20M from the sale Edit/Add: and the pension fund will be negatively impacted (in a big way) if the sale doesn't go through. Oh, and if he had a pre-arrangement with Dorsey et al... why would he have threatened a "tender"? A tall leap by the pension fund and even a "pact" does not equal 15% single interested stockholder.
There's plenty of people against the idea. His financing and concentration will not be an obstacle. I'd bet on that.
A Case for Small Caps? Media is reporting that Nasdaq Comp is in a bear market (more than 20% decline from recent high). But small-caps are ALSO in a bear market from their highs on
11/8/2
1. And look at that SC-growth stinker. Mid-March low didn't hold, so be careful.
Small-caps
IWM,
IWO (growth),
IWN (value) from
11/8/2
1 highs (chart may default to
1-yr).
https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=IWM&compare=IWO,IWN&id=p93474469989
A Case for Small Caps? I know it sounds crazy to even ask the question given the market but consider this:
More than 45% of Nasdaq stocks are down 50% 1 in 2!
More than 22% are down 75%
More than 5% are down 90%
The current buyers of tech stocks are purchasing a 60% “discount” to what they were a few months ago. The indexes are faring better only because of the mega cap tech companies: Apple, Tesla, Google and Microsoft as they are approaching 40% of the index. They are generating so much cash and keeping the indices a float. So, if you’re a bear on the Nasdaq at this point… you are saying you are bearish on those four companies. The rest of the Nasdaq has already been decimated. This started around Nov of last year. Given this, are we at the bottom? If so, is now the right time to invest in small cap? Open to thoughts…
M* -- 2022 Selloff Has Left the U.S. Stock Market Undervalued I haven’t yet found Steven M Sears’ weekly Barron’s column very helpful. Deals a lot in sophisticated options strategies. This week Sears suggests in his lead-in that heightened fear makes now a good time to buy stocks. (On that I don’t know.) But than he tries to have his cake and eat it too by first citing Paul Tutor Jones who called the ‘87 crash as saying he wouldn’t currently want to own any stocks or bonds and than citing Warren Buffet who has been finding value.
Sears aside, when I make a feeble attempt to evaluate some stocks, the historical return charts don’t appear outrageous / bubble-like, some of the businesses seem more or less recession proof and the p/e ratios look fair if not compelling. My thinking remains that the tech heavy S&P is probably overvalued, but that there are opportunities elsewhere. Just the view from a novice. Could be wrong. I won’t suggest any particular fund or stock. Do your own due diligence.
Re the ARKK type “innovation” stocks: Not included in above meandering. These are fraught with peril. They’ve been tripped up by higher interest rates. That’s a 2 pronged sword. First, it makes carrying a lot of debt (often floating rate) very expensive and second it deters would be acquirers who would need to finance the acquisition with higher interest rate credit. I do own 1 (DKNG) in limited amount. By buying and selling often I’ve managed to get the average price paid down to $15. The stock closed just above $13 Friday - a far cry from its $70 top only a year and a half ago.