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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Cathie Wood’s Flagship Fund is Down … Money is Still Flowing. WSJ
    For years Buffet was criticized for holding lots of cash.
    Did he really come out ahead by keeping his "powder dry" for years? I think the numbers show that the opportunity cost of holding onto that power exceeded the benefit of waiting. While Buffett is often used as a model of patient investing, patience has its price.
    He purchased about $51B worth of equity in Q1 2022 (plus repurchasing $3.2B of Berkshire Hathaway stock).
    $11.6B of that was to acquire Alleghany Insurance at a 25% control premium. That's BH's primary MO - to buy control, not equity for income/gain. So IMHO we can discount this as not a "regular" investment.
    Of the remaining $40B, at least $14B (35%) went into Chevron stock. You can infer this by noting that the $4.5B owned at the beginning of the year was worth 40% more at end of quarter. Subtracting that $6.B from the $25.9B owned at the end of the quarter means that BH bought shares worth $19.6B at end of quarter. The cheapest those shares could have been purchased in the quarter was $14B (at beginning of quarter).
    So it is fair to focus on CVX.
    • Had the same shares been purchased at the beginning of 2017 instead of the beginning of 2022, he would have made 24.6% cumulative, 4.5% annualized instead of whatever cash was paying over those five years.
    • Had he purchased the shares at the beginning of 2018, he'd still have beaten cash, though not by much, with an annualized 3.02% return.
    • Investing three years ago (beginning of 2019) would have yielded 7.68% annualized. Now were talking real opportunity costs.
    • Two years ago? 4.07% annualized return.
    • And had he invested at the beginning of 2021 instead of the beginning of 2022 or later, he would have come out a whopping 46.32% (or more) above where he wound up.
    Certainly he benefited from waiting with some stocks, such as OXY. Though if we're going to look at other acquisitions, we should also look at AAPL (even though he bought "only" $600M during the quarter). Using the same links I gave above for Portfolio Visualizer analyses, one sees the opportunity costs of waiting to buy AAPL. A purchase 5 years ago (beginning of 2017) would have returned 45% annualized; 4 years ago, 45% annualized; 3 years ago, 67% annualized (!), 2 years ago, 57%; and the return he could have had by deploying that cash at the beginning of 2021 was 35%.
    Even though BH didn't add much to its AAPL holdings, its worth a mention because Buffett made a big deal about buying more on a three day dip. After a multi-year meteoric rise.
    FWIW, here's BH's cash and cash equivalent holdings over the past five years (always over $100B):
    https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/BRK.A/financials/annual/balance-sheet
  • Musk to Buy Twitter
    The current Barron's has a Cover and several features on Transportation (Part 1 is out for those interested). And one cannot talk about that without Musk. Speculation is growing whether Musk will be distracted from his old projects (Tesla, SpaceX, Boring) now that he has spent most of his pocket money on Twitter.
  • M* -- 2022 Selloff Has Left the U.S. Stock Market Undervalued
    ASML was the subject of a « tiptoeing-in » thread here in late January. The stock looked cheap to some at that time; today M* shows a YTD decline of almost 31% and gives the stock a 5 star rating on valuation basis. Shares dropped to $550 on Friday. Pretty tempting to nibble on this high quality semiconductor equipment manufacturer.
  • Musk to Buy Twitter
    “Elon Musk has assembled a group of investors including a Saudi prince, Larry Ellison and a bitcoin exchange to pony up more than $7 billion to back his bid to buy Twitter Inc. Tesla Inc.’s chief executive has lined up about $7.14 billion from 19 investors, a roster of big-money backers whose investment effectively reduces the personal risk Mr. Musk has to take to close the $44 billion deal for the social-media company. The new money will cut in half the amount Mr. Musk needs to borrow against his Tesla stake, according to a regulatory filing, and will slightly reduce the balance of cash he needs to put up personally, to just under $20 billion. The biggest contribution comes from Prince al-Waleed bin Talal of Saudi Arabia, who agreed to retain a stake in Twitter valued at $1.9 billion following Mr. Musk’s takeover, the disclosure said …..
    “Mr. Ellison, a co-founder of Oracle Corp., agreed to put in $1 billion. Cryptocurrency exchange Binance.com, controlled by billionaire developer Changpeng Zhao, promised $500 million. Venture-capital firms Sequoia Capital and Andreessen Horowitz are contributing $800 million and $400 million, respectively. Arms of asset managers Fidelity Investments and Brookfield Asset Management Inc. also will take part.”
    Excerpted from The Wall Street Journal - May 6, 2022
  • M* -- 2022 Selloff Has Left the U.S. Stock Market Undervalued
    Those of us who can remember Dreyfus Liquid Assets Money Market fund paying 12%, CPI at 14% treasuries at 16% and mortgages at 18% suspect it could worse.
    The DJI was 600
    You may be conflating two periods - 1974± and 1980±
    The only time in the 1970s (or later) that the DJIA dipped below 600 was in 1974 when it bottomed out at 577. Looking at month end data one doesn't see this nadir, though one does find the average bopping around the low 600s for the latter part of 1974 before jumping back to the 800s in early 1975.
    image
    The BLS does confirm that M/M change in the CPI peaked at 1.3% (annualized rate of about 16.8%), even though the Y/Y increase didn't exceed 12.3% until 1979.
    The really high extended (Y/Y) inflation rates were in the 1979-1981 period. I suspect this is the period you really have in mind. The DJIA languished around 800 for the latter part of the 1970s.
    The Y/Y increase in CPI-U peaked at 14.7% in May 1980. Mortgage rates in the mid 1970s were relatively modest, at a tad under 10%. It wasn't until 1979 that they topped that figure, at 11.2% in 1979, 13.74% in 1980, 16.63% in 1981, and 16.04% in 1982. Though there were shorter term spikes of 16% and 18% in the 1979-1983 time frame.
    image
    Dreyfus Liquid Assets launched in February 1974 and did make a splash. In more ways than one. "Dreyfus Liquid Assets got caught holding paper from Franklin National Bank when it collapsed in 1974, but it was also bailed out by its sponsor." (Washington Post).
    In mid-1981, MMFs were yielding 17%-18%, and T-bills were yielding 14.54%.
    https://www.nytimes.com/1981/08/08/business/treasury-bill-rate-at-14.54.html
  • Bear market coming?
    After today PRWCX is down 10% YTD. That’s somewhat better than the S&P’s YTD loss of 13.5%. Little consolation, however, for anyone who may have bought the fund believing it only goes up.
  • M* -- 2022 Selloff Has Left the U.S. Stock Market Undervalued
    If you have a stock with a 20 P/E or a 5% earnings yield and 10-year bonds instead of yielding 2% are now yielding 6%, you have to seriously ask why one would buy the 20 P/E stock? So the higher rates go, the worse all stocks, but high valuation ones look especially. The other question is leveraged stocks versus unleveraged ones. Those with high costs of capital and a lot of leverage will really suffer if they have to refinance at higher rates.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Sold VUSFX a few weeks ago in taxable account to harvest tax loss.
    Placed order yesterday to purchase 13 wk Treasuries at 05/09 auction.
    Sold RCTIX a few weeks ago in Roth IRA account after an abrupt manager departure.
    Placed order yesterday to purchase 13 wk Treasuries at 05/09 auction.
    VWILX is getting hammered YTD and for the trailing 12 month period.
    Placed order today to purchase a few additional shares in my Roth IRA account.
  • Bear market coming?
    It's difficult to predict what will happen.
    Here are some of the well-known risks:
    1) High inflation
    2) Fed raising rates and implementing QT
    3) War in Ukraine
    4) COVID-19 lockdowns in China (supply chain impact)
    5) New COVID-19 variant emerges and potentially wreaks havoc in the U.S.
    It appears that markets will continue to exhibit increased volatility in the short-term.
    I don't know what will occur over the longer term.
    I'm feeling cautious in the current environment.
    However, I did purchase additional shares today for two equity holdings which
    were hammered YTD and over the trailing 12 month period.
  • Bear market coming?
    +1, @DavidF. Equities are deep in Deathcross Land but near the January low, and therefore maybe ripe for a rebound, but how high and for how long? The next months, at least, are primed for bad YOY comps and disappointing earnings and growth, Fed pressure to the economic downside, and supply problems and supply chain damage via pandemic, de-globalization, and war (hot and cold) that may not be anywhere near fixed for months if not years.
    On the plus side, there are a fair number of hedged, multi-asset approaches that are working well in this climate.
  • M* -- 2022 Selloff Has Left the U.S. Stock Market Undervalued
    Those of us who can remember Dreyfus Liquid Assets Money Market fund paying 12%, CPI at 14% treasuries at 16% and mortgages at 18% suspect it could worse.
    The DJI was 600
  • M* -- 2022 Selloff Has Left the U.S. Stock Market Undervalued
    M* says its time for long term investors to consider adding to their growth stock holdings.....image
    Stock Market Undervalued
  • Allocation/Balanced Funds, Past & Future - MFO 5/1/22
    As of Thursday evening/Monday morning, the Calendar year total return drawdown for the 60/40 is about -13%
    The Vanguard Wellington down about -12% as of last night, in line with 60/40 give or take.
  • Cathie Wood’s Flagship Fund is Down … Money is Still Flowing. WSJ
    For years Buffet was criticized for holding lots of cash. Yet BRK-A/BRK-B stock does not pay a dividend. Now he has the cash to deploy at low prices in depressed times. He once said that the risk of stocks is greatly decreased when the price is decreased due to the market and not the fundamentals of the stock. YTD return of BRK-B is still in black while S&P500 index is down 12.6%. I invest with WB in any days over ARKK.
  • Bear market coming?
    Most bonds peaked on 8/1/21 (munis and HY peaked around New Year). Strangely, inv-grade corporates have done the worst and HY the best - that doesn't mean that everyone should just have HY. So, the stock-bond portfolios haven't provided their typical protections (as posters have noted already for allocation/balanced funds). Here are 2 bond charts that may default to 1-yr later.
    Bonds from 8/1/21 https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=BND&compare=VCIT,VMBS,HYG,MUB&id=p30148228080
    Bonds YTD https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=BND&compare=HYG,MUB,VCIT,VMBS&id=p64706093194
  • Bear market coming?
    Actually, that bear market definition is from the most recent high and for Nasdaq Comp that was 11/22/21. Nasdaq Comp briefly was more than 20% down in mid-March and has been so several times since late-April. On the other hand, DJIA and SP500 peaks were around the start of the new year, so YTD would be fine for reference for them and they are in pullback/correction.
    Charts from 11/22/21 (may default later to 1 year) https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$SPX&compare=$COMPQ,$INDU,$TRAN,IWM&id=p35491880115
    Charts YTD https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$SPX&compare=$COMPQ,$INDU,$TRAN,IWM&id=p69664712116
  • Bear market coming?
    As of tonight the NASDAQ is down 21.27% YTD. If a bear market is defined as a 20% or greater drop from a recent high, the NASDAQ is likely near or in a bear market. The Dow is only off 9% YTD and the S&P down 13%. No bear there. The Russell 2000 small cap index is 16.66% below its 2021 finish and so would appear to be approaching bear market territory. What makes this near bear feel more like the real thing? It’s likely the fact that bonds are sinking along with stocks and offering no relief as they customarily might.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 5/4/22
    For the week ending on 5/4/22, the Survey remained very negative: Bearish remained the top sentiment (52.9%; very high) & neutral became the bottom sentiment (20.3%; very low); bullish became the middle sentiment (26.9%; low from very low last week). Investor concerns remained high inflation; supply-chain disruptions; high market volatility (VIX, VXN); the Fed (the FOMC announced 50-bps hike with at least 2 more 50-bps hikes to follow but any 75-bps hikes were ruled out; balance sheet reduction plan of $47.5-95.0 billion/mo); Russia-Ukraine war (now 10+ weeks); Covid-19 spread & lockdowns in China. In the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were up (there was a huge Fed-"relief" rally on Wednesday), bonds down, oil up, gold down, dollar down. https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/615/thread
  • FTC Sues TurboTax Owner Intuit Over False Advertising
    TurboTax maker will pay $141M in settlement over misleading ads for free tax-filing
    AP, via NPR
    California-based Intuit Inc. will suspend TurboTax's "free, free, free" ad campaign and pay restitution to nearly 4.4 million taxpayers ...
    Under the agreement, Intuit will provide restitution to consumers who started using the commercial TurboTax Free Edition for tax years 2016 through 2018 and were told that they had to pay to file even though they were eligible for the version of TurboTax offered as part of the IRS Free File program.
    Consumers are expected to receive a direct payment of approximately $30 for each year that they were deceived into paying for filing services, [NY State Attorney General] James said. They will automatically receive notices and checks by mail.
  • What Europe's ban of Russian oil could mean for energy markets – and your gas prices
    It's going to get even more volatile in energy markets – and hence for gasoline prices.
    Following are heavily edited excerpts from the NPR report:

    Crude prices jumped on Wednesday after the European Union proposed a ban on oil imports from Russia as part of a new round of sanctions targeting the country after its invasion of Ukraine. The details are still being hammered out, and the proposal needs to be unanimously agreed upon by the 27 members of the bloc before going into effect.
    Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil, jumped more than 4% on the news and was trading at around $110 a barrel.
    Europe is hugely dependent on Russian oil imports. It gets about a quarter of its oil from Russia, by far the biggest single source of oil imports into the continent. Ultimately it's expected that an EU ban on Russian oil imports will result in a loss of 2 million barrels a day from Russia.
    When the price of oil spiked following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the average price of gasoline in the U.S. shot up above $4 a gallon and has remained there since, according to data from the American Automobile Association.
    However, the emergency release of about a million barrels a day from the strategy oil reserve has tempered gas prices. If it hadn't been for the emergency oil release, gasoline prices would have jumped even higher than they already are. But there are obvious big question marks about what happens after the U.S. reaches its planned 180 million barrel limit. A lot will depend on the conditions in crude markets at the time.
    The oil cartel OPEC+ is in the best position to make up for lost supply, but that's unlikely. Russia is a member of OPEC+, and moves against Russia risk jeopardizing the alliance that has long been important to stabilizing the global price of oil. A bigger concern is that some members of OPEC+ are struggling to meet their current quotas due to political strife and underinvestment.
    OPEC+ has been gradually increasing production by about 430,000 barrels per day since last summer, in a steady effort to get back to pre-pandemic production levels. OPEC+ meets on Thursday and is expected to maintain its current plans to increase production only gradually.
    The U.S. is the world's biggest producer of oil, but most of that oil is consumed domestically. Drilling more is a lot easier said than done. It takes months for even the fastest producers to build a new well. And labor challenges and supply chain problems are lengthening that timeline. Oil companies are still proceeding cautiously- they lost a great deal of money in the oil crash at the beginning of the pandemic, and growing concerns about environmental impact are making them hesitant to invest further.
    The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts that U.S. producers will increase output by an average of 800,000 barrels a day this year. But it's hard to go faster than that, and that simply doesn't make up for the expected loss of Russian oil.
    Free link to NPR Article