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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Anyone using some of their dry powder ?
    Future market indicating Monday will be down again. Oil futures are still over $100/bb. So the market has not bottomed yet. Besides the second 50 bps rate hike will be in May and several more will come through the rest of this year. Other countries are experiencing high inflation too and they are raising rate as well.
    I am looking at individual short term corporate bonds (not funds) and CD as a replacement for some of the cash.
  • Anyone using some of their dry powder ?
    @Crash. What are your expectations for PRFRX? Jan thru March 2022 the dividends trail the same period in 2021. The share price is slowly declining over the long run. While it’s out performing core bond funds it also has the potential for significant price declines. I am not loving it.
    No I'm not loving it, either. I suppose you could say I'm using my PRFRX as a place to hold cash, rather than a MM. I've been "raiding" PRFRX to get cash to buy equities. My PRFRX is in tax-sheltered. ..... So, I'm not expecting much. But a MM would not even offer the monthly dividend. I like to keep track of those, and so div. PER SHARE is easiest to monitor. But I can't find that figure yet, for the end-of-April dividend. (Do YOU know what it is?) ..... As for TUHYX: it will have to fall off the table before I buy more. But if it DOES, I'll buy more.
  • The game of energy poker is getting scarier
    The link does not work. Read elsewhere that Russia demands the payment in rubles instead of Euro or US dollar as stated in the sale contract. It is a way to prop up the rubles when Russia is experiencing high inflation near 16% since the Ukraine invasion. https://statista.com/statistics/276323/monthly-inflation-rate-in-russia/
    Don't know how to resolve this since the Russian demand would constitutes a breach of the terms of the contract. What a mess!
  • The game of energy poker is getting scarier
    Russia cuts off gas to two European countries. Who’s next?
    Following are edited excerpts from a current article in The Economist.
    Not long ago it seemed that the game of energy poker being played by Europe and Russia, though dangerous, was under control. After all, Europe imports 40% of its gas from Russia, which in turn makes about €400m ($422m) a day from its sales. On April 27th, however, Russia upped the ante: Gazprom, a state-owned energy giant, stopped sending gas to Bulgaria and Poland after they missed the deadlines that Russia had set for paying in roubles.
    The immediate effect of Russia’s latest move, which the EU has described as being a breach of contract, is limited in scope.
    Exactly who might be cut off next is not clear. The stakes are high. It is not that Europe needs the gas now: as temperatures rise, consumption is ebbing. But the bloc’s stocks are only at 33% of storage capacity. The European Commission has urged member states to ensure that their facilities are 80% full by November, implying a spike in demand to come.
    Still, if Russia were to cut off big importers, it would deprive itself of some of the cash it needs to fund a costly and protracted war. So who will fold first?
    One country being cut off could have knock-on effects on others, for instance if gas transits through it to other places. Nor is it clear whether Russia might eventually turn the taps off anyway.
    If Germany, say, were cut off, gas markets would go haywire. European prices are already six times higher than they were a year ago. They would soar to new peaks, luring more LNG from the rest of the world and causing prices elsewhere to rise in turn. Jack Sharples of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, a think-tank, reckons a full shutdown of Russian gas to Europe may well cause a global recession. Russia’s game of poker is getting scarier—and those losing their shirts could include bystanders, too.
    image

    Link to The Economist article (subscription required)
  • Anyone using some of their dry powder ?
    @Crash. What are your expectations for PRFRX? Jan thru March 2022 the dividends trail the same period in 2021. The share price is slowly declining over the long run. While it’s out performing core bond funds it also has the potential for significant price declines. I am not loving it.
  • Anyone using some of their dry powder ?
    I have fair amount cash/stable value, and in no hurry to deploy them. I share similar view with @sma3 that rising the interest rate will not lower the inflation as it did in the past. Supply chain constraint and geopolitical conflicts are difficult to solve, in addition to the pandemic. Now China is severely impacted again as it did back in late 2019 and 2020.
    YTD we are doing by several % and that is good enough for us. Certainly cash is NOT trash. Moving out of most bond funds and risky asset/funds was helpful late last year. Now we are well positioned in commodities, energy and utility. The other concern is recession, if and when it arrives.
  • Fidelity will start offering bitcoin as an investment option in 401(k) accounts
    I agree, especially for 401(K). Fidelity is one of the largest pension plan administrator and they have fiduciary responsibility to the investors.
  • Anyone using some of their dry powder ?
    Not much dry powder here, too. I'm using bond fund money to buy stocks within the tax-sheltered account. Kill two stones with one bird: reduce bonds while buying "bargains."
    PRFRX is holding up rather well, down YTD by just a quarter point. And my TUHYX? I don't want to talk about it. Down -8% YTD. The dividends just showed up overnight, though, and I was pleased. .....
    ...With just a bit of spare cash, I bought a few more shares in BHB. I want to just get my shares owned in BHB up to a respectable round number--- as long as the price is right! And then my next target is Pacific Basin Shipping. Because this is a FUND website, let me mention FICDX, too. It's on my radar. Canada sells rocks and trees to the world. But the two biggest holdings there are TD and RY. High conviction! Over 10% of AUM in those two, EACH.
  • Anyone using some of their dry powder ?
    No deployment of dry powder yet. First deployment will be to AA funds mid/end of summer, then into riskier stuff, depending on war in Ukarine. In general I use a 20% downturn as a buy switch in transitional periods such as these. I am a good 10-15 years from retirement and quite comfortable being 30% cash / stable value in my company 401k.
  • Anyone using some of their dry powder ?
    S&P is copying the iShare trick with older ETFs and newer "core" series ETFs, e.g. EEM and IEMG. At the time of introduction of IEMG, EEM was the higher ER giant and iShare said that IEMG was for small investors with lower ER but not so good liquidity. This has reversed now and IEMG is much bigger than EEM.
    S&P is doing something similar with SPY and SPLG. Additional factor is that although higher ER giant SPY is called ETF, it really has UIT structure and that impacts its tracking a bit. The lower ER smaller SPLG has regular ETF structure.
    For retail investors, choice is clear - lower ER IEMG (really, anything in iShare "core" series), SPLG, etc.
    Edit/Add: More history for SPLG from M*, https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/splg/quote
    "In November 2017, the fund switched its benchmark to the SSGA Large Cap Index from the Russell 1000 Index. It began tracking the S&P 500 in January 2020. The most recent change is part of SSGA’s effort to standardize the benchmarks underpinning its SPDR Portfolio lineup. As these three indexes are all broad, market-cap-weighted benchmarks that capture large-cap stocks, their performance has been similar."
  • Anyone using some of their dry powder ?
    BaluBalu,
    I prefer buying in small amounts. Chip chip chip chip. Down another -0.25%? Then I automatically just bought another share in each of my various accounts via Limit orders getting executed.
    But buying fractional shares is difficult because any fractional limit orders expire same day at Fido. SPY's price is much higher and I am a small-time investor.
    SPLG = $48 /share
    SPY = $412/share
    Same idea with ONEQ.
  • Anyone using some of their dry powder ?
    Hi Derf,
    Yeah,....revamping things right now. Moved taxable money to Fido from Ally and did CD ladder for now. Still have some cash in there for ETFs or funds. Also have Mrs. Pudd's 401k (from the post office) now IRA finally in Fido. Also did a CD ladder for now. Some cash left and am adding to FXAIX in her account. As for me, added to FARMX, FICDX, FSPCX, and to FXAIX. Most went in yesterday. Am still thinking we go lower, say 4000 S&P, but, again, you have to start somewhere. Since I don't know where the bottom will be, we go in slowly and drink a lot of longnecks.
    God bless
    the Pudd
  • Anyone using some of their dry powder ?
    Early in retirement, the last thing I need is holding a large equity allocation in a prolonged bear market, so I am at my personal low end of stock allocations. I am marginally positive YTD overall, with overweighs in Energy and commodities and underweight FAANG.
    I do not think raising the Federal Funds rate will do much to alleviate inflation due to supply chain disruptions /war, and it seems harder and harder for the FED to stop inflation without a recession. Stagnation seems more and more likely until 2024 at least
    Barrons has a nice summary of the difficulty of a "Soft lading"
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/recession-inflation-fed-soft-landing-51651183401?mod=past_editions
    Bond yields, while better, are still lowespecially relative to inflation, and even good dividend stocks my be in for a 15 to 20% drop
    I don't see much to change these trends until the war is over and China's covid problem is resolved. The added expenses to rebuild Ukraine and restore the damage to it's agricultural infrastructure will keep food and basic materials prices high for a long time, even if there is a recession.
    Having said that, I nibbled on AMZN and JPM yesterday as both are way down and JPM pays 3.35%, but I think adding to DBA or GCC or XLE makes the most sense now, along with PSQ and SH if you are OK with inverse ETFs
    I am also looking at a ladder of tax free state specific munis. While they don't pay much they are marginally better than MM rates and if interest rates continue to rise you can have cash to buy bonds at better prices
  • What market valuation metrics / tools / indexes do you use?
    I use Merrimans Moderate Portfolio of Schwab index funds as a benchmark. According to Morningstar down -8.78%.
    https://paulmerriman.com/schwab-2021/
  • What market valuation metrics / tools / indexes do you use?
    I ask because I’m at a loss. Hopefully some of you have a firmer grip on where we are than I do. I generally look at return on funds I’ve either owned at one time or follow regularly to try to get a bearing. A few I’ve used as reliable benchmarks in years past are bleeding now - normally a signal that it’s a good time to buy.
    TRRIX -8.7% YTD
    PRSIX -9.4% YTD
    TRBCX -25% YTD
    The above have lagged far behind their historical performance, Other than for the aberrant 2007-2009 severe market turmoil / destruction, I can’t remember anything close to those numbers. (Maybe briefly in March 2020?)
    I also monitor the Dow & the S&P thinking that:
    - a 10% near term drop looks interesting
    - a 20% drop looks inviting
    - a 30% drop seems compelling
    Currently, the Dow is off 9.25% this year and the S&P down 13.3%.
    However, this time it may be different. The conundrum of higher inflation, Fed tightening, war in Europe may have tilted the tables so that past indicators are no longer reliable.
    Here’s an old thread from last October about Buying the Dip recovered from the trash bin. In it I commented: “I’ll bet you a nickel the Dow closes below 34,000 again at some future point this year.” I was wrong. The Dow stayed above that level thru December 31. However, we all know where it’s gone this year. The Dow closed at 32,977 Friday.
  • Anyone using some of their dry powder ?
    Just add few share amazon yesterday after hr
    Filled just little vang2055, vpccx vgstx yesterday
    401k still 90% /10% twice monthly redistribution
    Got assigned XLF XBI at vanguard ...imho maybe good etf hold long term, or keep cover call OTM Monthly to collect premiums
    Expect a little bounce next wk Feds meeting maybe +3-5%....afterwards maybe more pain....sp500 severe resistance ~ 3980,..if break that levels much more pains ahead
    In early June if more stability/bottom formations may go all in more options trades put sale...now just waiting ✋️
    Just sent uncle Sam ck, just cash 47k last few yrs tax...no more dry power.
    Dry add work more OT get more $$...put in vegas stock markets...lol.. get rich quickly or die trying
  • Fidelity will start offering bitcoin as an investment option in 401(k) accounts
    Barron's has a recent article about Fidelity's desire to include Bitcoin in their 401(k) plans.
    Many challenges lie ahead...
    "Bitcoin’s suitability as a 401(k) investment has prompted warnings from the Labor Department, which enforces federal rules for the plans. In March, the DOL cautioned employers against crypto, warning that they 'should expect to be questioned about how they can square their actions with their duties of prudence and loyalty.'”
    "Investor-protection groups are lining up against the idea, too.
    More than a dozen supported the DOL’s warning in a letter to the agency this past week.
    The discussions around cryptos 'overshadow the facts that make them extremely questionable for retirement accounts,' said Dennis Kelleher, CEO of Better Markets, an investor-advocacy group that signed the letter."
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    Just looked at the portfolio. Dark. Darker than a steer's tuchus on a moonless night.
    BEST was PRFRX at -0.11%. ...... WORST: PRISX at - 2.98%. Crud, I was just WRONG about buying financials---- or, as they say--- "just way too early." That sounds better. Allows me to "save face."
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    That was UGLY!
    Free Stockcharts has a limit of 5 charts to display. So, the 2nd link replaces small-cap R2000 with DJ Utilities and those who recently chased the uncharacteristic rally in utilities also got hurt. Reset times to YTD if the links default to 1-yr later.
    Now, welcome the bad seasonality period, May 1 - October 31? How?
    https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$SPX&compare=$COMPQ,$INDU,$TRAN,IWM&id=p07024191480
    https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$SPX&compare=$COMPQ,$INDU,$TRAN,$UTIL&id=p82374835101
  • OUCH !
    SMFKY. Smurfit Kappa Grp ADR +2.13% today. It's on one of my watch lists, just because it's an Irish company. I'll let you know about my TRAMX, when the daily price is posted. Lots of financials in TRAMX. But if Europe is up, that fund seems to like to rise along with it...
    Edited to add: as promised: TRAMX down 3 cents to $11.53 or -0.26%. YTD, WSJ webpage shows +10.2%. I'm certainly not enjoying all of that, but I am up with it, ytd. My bond funds will pay me overnight, too. They're down, due to both the Market, and to account for the pay-outs. TUHYX and PRFRX. In Frontier Mkt bonds, I'm keeping an eye on AGEPX. No money thrown at it yet.