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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Barron's on Active Share & James Anderson/VWILX
    @yogibearbull,
    Thanks for the James Anderson interview summary.
    Mr. Anderson has been very influential at Baillie Gifford.
    Funds that he has been involved with have generated excellent long-term returns.
    I'm a VWILX ¹ investor and the fund has performed poorly over the past year and YTD.
    However, performance has been top-decile over the trailing 5 Yr, 10 Yr, and 15 Yr periods.
    So it goes...
    ¹ Baillie Gifford manages ~65%; Schroder manages ~34%
  • Osterweis Acquires Zeo Funds
    It is initially the Zeo employees, not the management firm (Zeo Capital Advisers) and not the funds that are moving to Osterweis Capital Management (OCM).
    According to the prospectus supplement, the funds have reached a short term (150 day) agreement that OCM will serve as investment adviser, and that the same people will continue to manage the funds through their new employer. "The terms of the Interim Agreement are identical in all material respects to those of the Previous Advisory Agreement."
    There is one immediate change to the fees:
    "Also, effective May 1, 2022, the Funds will be discontinuing the redemption fee on Fund shares redeemed within 30 days of purchase."
    The funds remain series of Northern Lights Trust, the board of directors does not change. That should change in the fall, when the funds themselves are acquired by Osterweis.
    Prospectus supplement:
    https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1314414/000158064222002125/zeofunds497.htm
  • Barron's on Active Share & James Anderson/VWILX
    In the current Barron's, there are a couple of stories on funds. Barron's links may require subscriptions; open Summaries are from here, LINK
    @LewisBraham has a piece on active-shares.
    FUNDS. ACTIVE-SHARE has become popular since 2009 introduction by CREMERS and a colleague. But higher fees by funds using active-shares have not been justified by their risk-adjusted performance (some just took higher risks). It may work better for large-cap funds than small- or mid- cap funds. High active-share doesn’t mean better manager skills. It may be useful for avoiding closet indexers that charge high fees; focused funds also have high active-shares but have higher volatility and inconsistent performance. https://www.barrons.com/articles/for-active-funds-being-different-from-the-index-isnt-enough-51650525302?mod=past_editions
    Another piece on funds is an interview by James Anderson, the retiring manager of VWIGX / VWILX.
    James ANDERSON, Baillie Anderson (Retiring as Partner in April), former Barron’s Roundtable Member. It has been a tough 2022/Q1 but his growth style has been great during his 39 year career and he remains optimistic on transformative technologies (e.g. data + genomics in healthcare (ILMN, RXRX, Tempus, etc), synthetic biology, electrification, etc). Trick is to find a handful of companies in the new areas as many old and new companies will be left behind. Realize that transformative technologies are deflationary or disinflationary, so with high inflation now, other influences are dominating, and he is concerned about those. But one has to respect the market – e.g. both Tesla/TSLA (he thought MUSK had his hands full with Tesla and SpaceX and he is puzzled by this Twitter/TWTR thing that he sold long ago) and Moderna/MRNA have great futures ahead but the market is treating them quite differently. He likes BEZOS’/AMZN approach of going for 10% chances of making 100x than BUFFETT’s of never losing money. https://www.barrons.com/articles/james-anderson-baillie-gifford-tesla-illumina-moderna-stock-51650585145?mod=past_editions
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    April 23, 2022
    What do you do when your flagship fund goes from the top of its class to close to the bottom in a matter of weeks? From market trouncing to market lagging? That is the challenge facing this week’s guest.
    Alex Umansky, Portfolio Manager of the Baron Global Advantage Fund which he launched at the firm of legendary growth manager Ron Baron in 2012. Umansky oversees about $2.4 billion dollars in assets at Baron Capital including $1.7 billion at his flagship Baron Global Advantage Fund.
    However, in mid-November of 2021, the bottom fell out for the majority of its holdings. Global Advantage went from a 20% plus gain to a less than one percent gain by year-end, while its benchmark and competition fared much better. So far this year the fund is down 33% and lagging badly.
    In a wide-ranging discussion, Umansky discusses what’s changed and what in his mind hasn’t, which is why he is doubling down on some of his hardest-hit holdings and is convinced they will be long-term winners.


  • CDs are starting to move up a bit
    It is interesting that all market discount is treated as ordinary income (ignoring timing or deminimus amount).
    Gains in excess of imputed interest (typically using constant yield to maturity) are taxed as cap gains. For example, suppose a bond is purchased at $90 with a 2% yield (disregarding coupons), and it is sold a year later for $92. 2% x $90 = $1.80, so the extra 20¢ appreciation is taxed as a capital gain.
    Mutual funds are pass through entities. Broadly speaking, you get taxed as if you owned the securities. (There are some special case pass-through rules for funds, such as passing short term gains through as ordinary income.)
  • What are you buying - if anything?
    Added little more tqqq spxl vang2050 earlier today
    Watching red market carnage
    Friend added amaz put sale to open mature 4.29 strike 2600, premium 1780
  • Close below 33,000 on monthly chart would spell trouble: Chris Kimble
    Close below 33,000 on monthly chart would spell trouble: Chris Kimble
    The stock market's Friday plunge will have market bulls looking for the Dow Jones Industrial Average to hold important support tied to the market's gyrations all the way back to the 2007-09 financial crisis, technical analyst Chris Kimble said on Friday.
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/a-dow-close-below-33-000-would-spell-bad-news-for-stock-market-bulls-chart-watcher-11650651066
    How low can you go?!
    I keep buying slowly cautiously
    Acct -9.7%% now . all gains previously subsiding
    Maybe starting nosedive
    Feds /inflation/ stagnation growth expects Ukraine....c19...too many hits for stocks to take to recover?
    Maybe dji 27k by mid end summer
  • U.S. Fund Investor - 2022 Q1 Money Moves
    “and long government-bond funds saw inflows."

    Last I checked long term treasury index funds are down over 17%. Please help on why these bonds attract investors?
    I agree @Sven that it appears counterintuitive.
    However, you can’t buy past performance (or underperformance). If you buy those bonds today you’re not buying that negative 17%. Folks buying bonds / bond funds today might believe the sell-off is overdone and that some modest recovery may occur. Furthermore, it might also constitute a calculated wager that the Fed will push the economy into a deep recession by hiking rates too far too fast and that longer dated bonds will benefit as a result.
    Full disclosure: I bought some longer dated bonds today - iShares GNMA etf.
    Added: To some extent bonds are a “hedge”. Should equities plunge from here, government backed bonds should hold up relatively well - might rise in value. And if equities reverse direction and soar to new heights, you might not mind having lost some money on those bonds.
  • CDs are starting to move up a bit
    Tax treatment of market discount is as I described (net gain generally counted as taxable ordinary income upon sale), unless you make a 1278(b) election.
    If you do make that election, and only if you make that election, is the accrual reported in box 10 on Form 1099-INT. (If the bond was issued with OID, then the accrual is reported instead in box 5 on Form 1099-OID.)
    Here's Fidelity's form for informing them of your election. I haven't checked into the procedures for notifying the IRS because in most cases it is preferable to defer taxable income until time of sale rather than to declare accrual annually.
    https://www.fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/customer-service/fixed-income-reporting-instructions.pdf
    See also the instructions for 1099-INT box 10 and 1099-OID box 5.
    https://www.irs.gov/instructions/i1099int#en_US_202201_publink10004477 (1099-INT, box 10)
    https://www.irs.gov/instructions/i1099int#en_US_202201_publink1000275738 (1099-OID, box 5)
  • CDs are starting to move up a bit
    hi @msf, If I buy in the secondary market a bond selling at a discount because of increase in interest rates from the time of issuance, does the brokerage issue a form 1099 for the interest income accrued from the amortization of the discount? For simplicity, let us assume the bond was issued at par.
  • Mechanics of Buying & Selling 5-Yr TIPS
    I just placed a buy order for the 13 wk Treasury for the Monday auction. The current equity in my account is negligible and I will be initiating an ACH deposit into that account on Monday to fund the buy by the settlement date. The Fidelity rep confirmed even if the money comes into the account before settlement, the account will not be debited until the settlement date and there will not be margin interest charged between auction date and settlement date.
  • CDs are starting to move up a bit
    Tax reporting on muni bonds has gotten a whole lot easier on bonds purchased since 2017.
    https://www.publicfinancetaxblog.com/2016/06/new-reporting-rules-subject-oid-on-tax-exempt-bonds-to-information-reporting/
    OID interest is imputed annually and tax free. So it generally only affects things like IRMAA that include tax-exempt interest.
    I'm not seeing 1-2 year Mass. GO bonds offered with OID (neither new issue nor secondary). But I'm only looking at Fidelity's offerings, and each broker has its own inventory (plus bonds obtained through third party services). Perhaps if you could give a sample CUSIP, we could better understand what you're looking at. (EMMA has detailed info by CUSIP.)
    What I'm wondering is whether the discount you are seeing is original issue (treated as tax-free) or secondary market (taxed as ordinary income upon sale, unless treated as taxable cap gain under de minimis rule).
    Aside from amortization of bond premiums, those are the tax consequences of tax-exempt munis in a nutshell. The devil, as they say, is in the excruciating details.
  • What are you buying - if anything?
    Lots of juggling … I plunked a bit into GNMA (ETF) today thinking it will outperform cash the rest of the year. I mean … down nearly 8% YTD … How much worse can it get?
    I’m pleased to have one recent acquisition, FLO (Flowers Foods), in the green today. Among other products, they distribute Dave’s Killer Bread - which I unabashedly highly recommend. :)
    Edit: FLO finished the day down .69%. So I lost some “dough” on it.
  • U.S. Fund Investor - 2022 Q1 Money Moves
    and long government-bond funds saw inflows."
    Last I checked long term treasury index funds are down over 17%. Please help on why these bonds attract investors?
    In addition, there is likely several rate hikes this year and 2023.
  • Mechanics of Buying & Selling 5-Yr TIPS
    Thanks for sharing your thinking @yogibearbull. I think you will make money on your buy and hopefully, the coupon is healthy enough for you to hold to maturity. I have decided not to buy FRNs because of negative spread rate but instead plan to buy the index rate, 13 wk, at auction and renew at maturity, if desirable. I shall post how I am required to fund the buy.
  • CDs are starting to move up a bit
    In Taxable accounts you might look at individual munis bonds too.
    High Quality Massachusetts ( GO and Harvard) 1 year bonds pay 1.7% tax free. Two years 2.2%
    There are a lot of OID bonds selling for below par, but I have to look at tax consequences a little more.
  • Mechanics of Buying & Selling 5-Yr TIPS
    @BaluBalu, clearly, it is important when the money is taken from the account for Treasury Auctions, whether on the Auction Day or the Settlement Day. We know that for Treasury trades in the secondary market, money will be taken out on trade-settle day (as for most brokerage trades).
    Schwab took the money out on the Auction day for online Treasury/TIPS order.
    Somebody may know it already for Fido online Treasury Auction orders. You Fido Rep said that for Treasury FRNs that don't allow online orders at Fido for Auctions, you can provide money until the Settlement Day. Confirm this if you do go through with your FRN Auction order. Also, whether there was any broker-assisted-trade fee.
    Treasury Direct (TD) says that the money will be taken out by the Settlement Day, but what is the actual experience? I know that for I-Bonds, TD was very aggressive and took the money out on the morning of the next business day (it didn't wait until the end-of-the-day or the next day as I had expected).
    I am aware of inflation-"expectations". Individual TIPS held to maturity do capture CPI-U month-to-month changes and those are going gangbusters now. Changes don't have to be high, but just positive AND persistent (for long enough). If there was a shorter-term for TIPS at Auctions, I would go for that, but 5-yr TIPS are the shortest maturities available. TIPS in the secondary market would introduce other market factors. I will know in 5 years how my 5-yr TIPS experiment went - either good or dead money. BTW, next 5-yr TIPS Auction is on June 23, 2022 (I wouldn't mess with 10-yr TIPS, but their Auction is on May 19, 2022).
    FRED Inflation-"Expectations" https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=OsmV
    FRED CPI-U (Unadjusted) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=O9Mg
    FRED CPI-U (Unadjusted), Month-to-Month changes https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Osv7
  • Mechanics of Buying & Selling 5-Yr TIPS
    You have been right about your inflation expectations expressed through your iBond purchases, starting last year. Glad I followed you into them.
    From your TIPS purchase, I am deducing that you think that inflation expectation expressed by market in the 5 Yr TIPS is going to surprise to the upside. To my surprise, the current 5 year breakeven rates at 3.36% are lower than they were in March.
    BTW, settlement for today's 5 yr TIPS auction is next Friday - a week +1 day from auction.
    https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2022/A_20220414_2.pdf
  • Mechanics of Buying & Selling 5-Yr TIPS
    I had an order at Schwab for 5-yr TIPS auction that was today. As I remembered from my prior experience a couple of years ago for buying T-Bills at Schwab, money was taken out from my account TODAY about 1/2 hour past Noon. So, Schwab didn't wait for the Settle day 4/29/22 tomorrow.
    If I had some Treasuries maturing this week, I think Schwab would have waited to settle everything tomorrow. All Treasuries maturing or auctioned this week will Settle on Friday.
    I bought I-Bond in January in Trust a/c. I could open another individual Treasury Direct a/c, but I decided to use the 2nd best 5-yr TIPS route & also test things out. My TIPS purchase was far far far... smaller than $5 million (-:).
  • CDs are starting to move up a bit
    Thanks Charles and yogi. To be honest I overlooked the annualized rate implication. Still better than the Schwab MM rate though which my cash has been sitting in. I think I'll make $12 profit this month :)