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• The U.S. is still missing about 3.5 million workers... several million workers plan to stay out indefinitely
• About three million workforce dropouts say they don’t plan to return to pre-Covid activities—whether that includes going to work, shopping in person or dining out—even after the pandemic ends
• Consistently, 1 in 10 have said they plan no return.
• The labor force [may] be depressed for potentially years after the pandemic recedes
If you sold your bond funds before a 4 to 6 percent decline and bought your other funds before they moved higher than of course, fantastic timing. Making such a move over the past 10 years (maybe longer) when many talking heads were saying yields can only go higher would have been a very different story. I stick to my plan of mostly buying assets when out of favor. With bonds, as yields move higher so will returns (over time). No reason to bail, and especially in taxable accounts.Summarizing some things I've posted recently...
We sold all of our dedicated bond funds earlier this year and kept small toeholds in NHMAX and RPHYX. Last Friday we sold the NHMAX toehold.
ALL of the dedicated bond funds we owned are DOWN a little-to-significantly this year. Dedicated bond fund proceeds were invested FFGCX and FNARX an the below-described ladder.
Bond proceeds from the more recent sales of allocation funds were/are being re-deployed into a relatively ST CDs/TNotes ladder (6 mos - 2-yrs, the latter being the sweet spot).
And now adding comments related to this thread...
There can be NO denying that this was the proper way to invest this year, and IMO for the coming months, maybe years.
For this year, who would you rather be, an investor faithfully hanging onto dedicated bond funds DOWN 1%-10-??%%, or an investor who saw opportunity and acted, currently holding FFGCX, UP ~35% YTD, having sold FNARX UP ~30% (at the time), and holding a ST CD/TNote ladder averaging ~2% APY?
BUYing an equity crash is COMPLETELY DIFFERENT than BUYing a bond market crash because the reasons for the respective crashes are different and the prospects for recovery are different. No investor should look at them as the same or even similar.
And don't let easy excuses for investment decision failures and confirmation bias for those failures cloud your thinking.
Sadly, an investor takes on much greater risk now with the equity plays noted in this post. But on dedicated bond funds vs a ST CD/TNote ladder, which investor would you rather be, one faithfully holding onto dedicated bond funds for the next couple of months/years, or an investor with a ST CD/TNotes ladder paying an FDIC'd/Full Faith'd 2% average APY?
Additional, from The Economist, 4/18:
• The country’s lockdowns have trapped truck drivers on highways, halted production lines and forced some importers to source goods from outside China.
• Official data released on Monday show they are exacting a grim toll on the world’s second-largest economy.
• For the world, China’s Covid shutdowns could feed inflation by further disrupting the supply chains that many manufacturers rely on.
• Executives in the auto industry and tech sector, two of China’s biggest employers, have begun warning in recent days of crippling disruption to their nationwide operations if Shanghai, in particular, cannot reopen soon.
• As China keeps disrupting production by imposing stringent lockdowns with no warning, at least a few importers in the West are starting to look elsewhere for supplies.
• Unemployment in China rose to its highest level since early in the pandemic, while consumer spending in the country fell. Official data show that the jobless rate climbed to 5.8% in March and retail sales fell by 3.5% compared with a year ago. GDP grew in the first quarter, though the full impact of recent lockdowns may not yet be being felt.
• The zero-covid policy has become a dead end from which the Communist Party has no quick exit.
• In addition to Shanghai, five provinces have partial lockdowns. At least 150m people are affected. There is no exit strategy.
“If Shanghai cannot resume production by May, all of the tech and industrial players who have supply chains in the area will come to a complete halt, especially the automotive industry,” Richard Yu Chengdong, head of Huawei’s consumer and auto division said in a WeChat post. “That will pose severe consequences and massive losses for the whole industry.”
I got in on 31 January. Pretty happy. Already missed about HALF of the YTD gains... 8% of portf. right now.In emerging markets category, TRAMX - T Rowe Price Africa & Middle East Fund up 12% YTD. Top Quintile for 1-10 yrs.
https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/mutualfund/TRAMX
......Because FFGCX has run-up too far, too fast, already? I'm late to the party, but I am now into TRP "New Era" fund. Natural Resources. PRNEX. And growing it. I don't see the Ukraine War ending soon. Inflation is not going away, either. In order of size in my portfolio:@stillers, If I understood your post correctly, I think you are not suggesting investors to now get into FFGCX. I think your only suggestion is to get into "ST CD/TNotes ladder (6 mos - 2-yrs, the latter being the sweet spot)." Is that correct?
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