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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Mechanics of Buying & Selling 5-Yr TIPS
    @yogibearbull,
    I was looking at 5-Yr TIPS from the perspective of the breakeven inflation rate.
    Except for the past few weeks, it appears this rate is the highest it's ever been (earliest data - 01/02/2003).
    Per your comments, recent monthly CPI-U changes have been very high.
    Holding 5-Yr TIPS for several months in this environment seems like a sensible strategy.
    BTW, I've accumulated a good-sized position in I-Bonds over the years.
    Thanks for your detailed response!
  • What are you buying - if anything?
    What is working for me this year is RPHYX, TPHD, REMIX and RYU. I have 12 individual stocks that are collectively up 8.25% YTD. I am on a hold pattern for now. REMIX would be my top choice.
  • Hypothetical Question for I-Bond Aficionados
    The rep said he will call me after 12 noon EST on 4/21 to discuss the announcement and placing the order for me because there is no way for me to place the order myself. Per your suggestion, I marked my calendar to check Fidelity (and Schwab) website.
    BTW, Fidelity allows online orders for TIPs in the secondary.
  • Hypothetical Question for I-Bond Aficionados
    @BaluBalu, I will fix my previous post - that was for Schwab, not Fido.
    I just checked my Fido a/c and it does allow me to enter TIPS order at Auction (but I didn't go through with that).
    Note that orders for Treasury Auctions can only be placed AFTER their Treasury announcements, and that for 2-yr FRN will be on 4/21/22 morning (around 11am Eastern). Check your Fido account then to see what it allows for 4/27/22 Auction.
  • Hypothetical Question for I-Bond Aficionados
    @BaluBalu, for TIPS in the secondary market, Fido Schwab also asks to give them call (no online order entry). But it is OK to enter online order for TIPS at Auctions. May be the same to buy 2-yr FRNs (next FRN Auction on 4/27/22). https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/221/Tentative-Auction-Schedule.pdf
  • It is ever thus...bonds!
    One other point of interest (at least to me): If you look at a bond fund like ABNDX, can find performance history back to 1975 on Yahoo Finance, it has never had two down years in a row. If we get a down year this year, then this will be the first time in 47 years that has happened. Looking at next year...will it be downside momentum, and an unprecedented third down year in a row, or reversion to the historical pattern? I still think there will be a rush to grab yield before long, but likely more pain until then, another bad day today.
  • Several Million U.S. Workers Seen Staying Out of Labor Force Indefinitely
    "Survey shows many labor-force dropouts plan to maintain social distancing after pandemic, raising implications for economy"
    Free link to WSJ Article
    A few points from the article:

    • The U.S. is still missing about 3.5 million workers... several million workers plan to stay out indefinitely
    • About three million workforce dropouts say they don’t plan to return to pre-Covid activities—whether that includes going to work, shopping in person or dining out—even after the pandemic ends
    • Consistently, 1 in 10 have said they plan no return.
    • The labor force [may] be depressed for potentially years after the pandemic recedes
  • Fallen Funds - TREMX
    Makes sense, Mark. I often feel the very same way, although just lately, my foreign stuff has jumped from 10 to 17 percent of total.
  • Fallen Funds - TREMX
    TRAMX is benefitting, in this one way at least, from its 25% stake in S. Africa, which (although it's down recently) is up 13+% ytd, based on the etf EZA, which I mentioned in one of the "what have you been buying" threads. I'm thinking it's about gold and diamonds and all their other mining products, and that those may also be propping up the currency.
    The "others," from Wikipedia (imho, an unusually strong article for W):
    "South Africa has always been a mining powerhouse. Diamond and gold production were in 2013 well down from their peaks, though South Africa is still number five in gold and remains a cornucopia of mineral riches. It is the world's largest producer of chrome, manganese, platinum, vanadium and vermiculite. It is the second largest producer of ilmenite, palladium, rutile and zirconium. It is also the world's third largest coal exporter. South Africa is also a huge producer of iron ore; in 2012, it overtook India to become the world's third-biggest iron ore supplier to China, the world's largest consumers of iron ore."
    There are plenty of footnotes to the article if interested.
    Yes, S. Africa still has a very high level of economic inequality.
  • T. Rowe Price Emerging Europe Fund is closing to new investors
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/313212/000174177322001131/c497.htm
    497 1 c497.htm
    T. Rowe Price Emerging Europe Fund
    Supplement to Prospectus and Summary Prospectus dated March 1, 2022, as supplemented
    Effective Monday, May 9, 2022, the T. Rowe Price Emerging Europe Fund will close to new investors. Accordingly, the summary and statutory prospectus are supplemented as follows:
    In the Summary Prospectus and Section 1 of the Prospectus, the disclosure under “Purchase and Sale of Fund Shares” is supplemented as follows:
    Effective at the close of the New York Stock Exchange on Monday, May 9, 2022, the fund will close to new investors and new accounts, subject to certain exceptions. Investors who already hold shares of the fund at the close of business on Monday, May 9, 2022, may continue to purchase additional shares. -End of Supplement Text----
    Section 2 of the Prospectus is supplemented as follows:
    CLOSED TO NEW INVESTORS
    The fund is currently closed to new accounts other than investors whose accounts meet any of the following criteria:
    · Participants in an employer-sponsored retirement plan where the fund already serves as an investment option;
    · Direct rollovers from an employer-sponsored retirement plan to a new T. Rowe Price IRA;
    · Accounts held directly with T. Rowe Price that qualify through participation in certain T. Rowe Price programs;
    · T. Rowe Price multi-asset products (such as funds-of-funds);
    · Discretionary accounts managed by T. Rowe Price or one of its affiliates; or
    · Wrap, asset allocation, and other advisory programs, if permitted by T. Rowe Price.
    Shareholders with existing accounts may make additional investments and reinvest dividends and capital gains so long as they own shares of the fund in their account. Shareholders who own the fund through an intermediary should check with the financial intermediary to confirm eligibility to continue purchasing shares of the fund.
    The fund’s closed status does not restrict existing shareholders from redeeming shares of the fund. However, any shareholders who redeem all fund shares in their account would generally not be permitted to re-establish the account and purchase shares unless they meet one of the above criteria. Transferring ownership to another party or changing an account registration may restrict the ability to purchase additional shares. In addition, the fund’s closed status does not restrict an existing investor’s ability to convert from one share class of the fund to another, provided the shareholder meets the eligibility criteria for the other share class.
    The fund reserves the right, when T. Rowe Price determines that it is not adverse to the fund’s interests, to permit certain investors to open new accounts in the fund, to impose further restrictions, or to close the fund to any additional investments, all without prior notice.
    The date of this supplement is April 18, 2022.
    F131-042 4/18/22
  • Mechanics of Buying & Selling 5-Yr TIPS
    @Observant1, keep in mind the following.
    1. As mentioned elsewhere, 5-yr TIPS now are 2nd best to I-Bonds. So, it for those who had their max fill for I-Bonds or who won't buy I-Bonds.
    2. Individual TIPS do tap into month-over-month changes in CPI-U that is very high now and unsustainable: Jan +0.841%, Feb +0.913%, Mar +1.335%. Look at -0.54% real yield as monthly cost of 54 bps/12 = 4.5 bps only. BTW, I-Bonds tap into semi-annual change in CPI-U.
    3. There is TIPS auction on this Thursday (4/21/22), so the time to act on it is short.
    4. If the CPI-U growth slows down, as it must, sell TIPS or stick with them for 5 years (that may still turn out OK). As for what the current data are saying about inflation-expectations for 5 years, we will find that out in 5 years. But this idea here is to tap into the inflation wave for months, not years.
  • It is ever thus...bonds!
    Summarizing some things I've posted recently...
    We sold all of our dedicated bond funds earlier this year and kept small toeholds in NHMAX and RPHYX. Last Friday we sold the NHMAX toehold.
    ALL of the dedicated bond funds we owned are DOWN a little-to-significantly this year. Dedicated bond fund proceeds were invested FFGCX and FNARX an the below-described ladder.
    Bond proceeds from the more recent sales of allocation funds were/are being re-deployed into a relatively ST CDs/TNotes ladder (6 mos - 2-yrs, the latter being the sweet spot).
    And now adding comments related to this thread...
    There can be NO denying that this was the proper way to invest this year, and IMO for the coming months, maybe years.
    For this year, who would you rather be, an investor faithfully hanging onto dedicated bond funds DOWN 1%-10-??%%, or an investor who saw opportunity and acted, currently holding FFGCX, UP ~35% YTD, having sold FNARX UP ~30% (at the time), and holding a ST CD/TNote ladder averaging ~2% APY?
    BUYing an equity crash is COMPLETELY DIFFERENT than BUYing a bond market crash because the reasons for the respective crashes are different and the prospects for recovery are different. No investor should look at them as the same or even similar.
    And don't let easy excuses for investment decision failures and confirmation bias for those failures cloud your thinking.
    Sadly, an investor takes on much greater risk now with the equity plays noted in this post. But on dedicated bond funds vs a ST CD/TNote ladder, which investor would you rather be, one faithfully holding onto dedicated bond funds for the next couple of months/years, or an investor with a ST CD/TNotes ladder paying an FDIC'd/Full Faith'd 2% average APY?
    If you sold your bond funds before a 4 to 6 percent decline and bought your other funds before they moved higher than of course, fantastic timing. Making such a move over the past 10 years (maybe longer) when many talking heads were saying yields can only go higher would have been a very different story. I stick to my plan of mostly buying assets when out of favor. With bonds, as yields move higher so will returns (over time). No reason to bail, and especially in taxable accounts.
  • China’s Economic Data Hints at Cost of Zero Covid Strategy
    Free Link to NY Times Article
    Some thoughts from the article:

    • The country’s lockdowns have trapped truck drivers on highways, halted production lines and forced some importers to source goods from outside China.
    • Official data released on Monday show they are exacting a grim toll on the world’s second-largest economy.
    • For the world, China’s Covid shutdowns could feed inflation by further disrupting the supply chains that many manufacturers rely on.
    • Executives in the auto industry and tech sector, two of China’s biggest employers, have begun warning in recent days of crippling disruption to their nationwide operations if Shanghai, in particular, cannot reopen soon.
    • As China keeps disrupting production by imposing stringent lockdowns with no warning, at least a few importers in the West are starting to look elsewhere for supplies.
    Additional, from The Economist, 4/18:
    • Unemployment in China rose to its highest level since early in the pandemic, while consumer spending in the country fell. Official data show that the jobless rate climbed to 5.8% in March and retail sales fell by 3.5% compared with a year ago. GDP grew in the first quarter, though the full impact of recent lockdowns may not yet be being felt.
    • The zero-covid policy has become a dead end from which the Communist Party has no quick exit.
    • In addition to Shanghai, five provinces have partial lockdowns. At least 150m people are affected. There is no exit strategy.

    And also this, from a current article in The Guardian, 4/18:
    “If Shanghai cannot resume production by May, all of the tech and industrial players who have supply chains in the area will come to a complete halt, especially the automotive industry,” Richard Yu Chengdong, head of Huawei’s consumer and auto division said in a WeChat post. “That will pose severe consequences and massive losses for the whole industry.”
  • Mechanics of Buying & Selling 5-Yr TIPS
    @yogibearbull,
    The yield for 5-Yr. TIPS was -0.54% on 04-14-22.
    The yield for 5-Yr. Treasuries was 2.79% on 04-14-22.
    The corresponding 5-Yr. breakeven inflation rate is 3.33%.
    Assuming yields don't change much between now and the auction date,
    would you prefer to purchase 5-Yr. TIPS then or would you wait
    for potentially better opportunities in the future?
  • Fallen Funds - TREMX
    In emerging markets category, TRAMX - T Rowe Price Africa & Middle East Fund up 12% YTD. Top Quintile for 1-10 yrs.
    https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/mutualfund/TRAMX
    I got in on 31 January. Pretty happy. Already missed about HALF of the YTD gains... 8% of portf. right now.
  • It is ever thus...bonds!
    @stillers, If I understood your post correctly, I think you are not suggesting investors to now get into FFGCX. I think your only suggestion is to get into "ST CD/TNotes ladder (6 mos - 2-yrs, the latter being the sweet spot)." Is that correct?
    ......Because FFGCX has run-up too far, too fast, already? I'm late to the party, but I am now into TRP "New Era" fund. Natural Resources. PRNEX. And growing it. I don't see the Ukraine War ending soon. Inflation is not going away, either. In order of size in my portfolio:
    1. Financials. I hope I'm just EARLY to THAT party!
    2. Healthcare.
    3. Tech/Cyclicals, same size.
    4. Utilities.
    5. Industrials.
    .......Still growing the Nat. Res. piece.
    Sold out of PRSNX over last Wed/Thurs. Great bond fund. But bonds are not the place to be. That was a pleasant rescue-job, knowing I was preserving profit which has built-up over the course of several years. I am sticking with my TRP Floating Rate PRFRX so far, YTD, hugging zero this year. I'm below 30% bonds now. Quite a reversal. The dividends feel good----- as long as the fund doesn't make a "deep southerly turn."
    Happy Easter to all of you observing it. We spent our first night in our new digs last night. A world of difference for the better.
  • Hypothetical Question for I-Bond Aficionados
    Not a critiq but want to make sure readers get a full picture. The fixed rate on iBonds issued in 2000 was approx 3.5%, which may have helped them go up nearly 250%. But those issued in 2004 with a fixed rate of 1% have not yet doubled in value ($5k invested on 5/1/2004 is now worth only $9K). These days iBonds are issued with a fixed rate of zero; so, one's appreciation (return on investment) is only based on inflation. Folks should check out the historic rates and do their own what if analysis -
    https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/res_ibonds_iratesandterms.htm
  • It is ever thus...bonds!
    Summarizing some things I've posted recently...
    We sold all of our dedicated bond funds earlier this year and kept small toeholds in NHMAX and RPHYX. Last Friday we sold the NHMAX toehold.
    ALL of the dedicated bond funds we owned are DOWN a little-to-significantly this year. Dedicated bond fund proceeds were invested FFGCX and FNARX an the below-described ladder.
    Bond proceeds from the more recent sales of allocation funds were/are being re-deployed into a relatively ST CDs/TNotes ladder (6 mos - 2-yrs, the latter being the sweet spot).
    And now adding comments related to this thread...
    There can be NO denying that this was the proper way to invest this year, and IMO for the coming months, maybe years.
    For this year, who would you rather be, an investor faithfully hanging onto dedicated bond funds DOWN 1%-10-??%%, or an investor who saw opportunity and acted, currently holding FFGCX, UP ~35% YTD, having sold FNARX UP ~30% (at the time), and holding a ST CD/TNote ladder averaging ~2% APY?
    BUYing an equity crash is COMPLETELY DIFFERENT than BUYing a bond market crash because the reasons for the respective crashes are different and the prospects for recovery are different. No investor should look at them as the same or even similar.
    And don't let easy excuses for investment decision failures and confirmation bias for those failures cloud your thinking.
    Sadly, an investor takes on much greater risk now with the equity plays noted in this post. But on dedicated bond funds vs a ST CD/TNote ladder, which investor would you rather be, one faithfully holding onto dedicated bond funds for the next couple of months/years, or an investor with a ST CD/TNotes ladder paying an FDIC'd/Full Faith'd 2% average APY?