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We are in a new era of higher inflation and the pressure is on the Fed! Inflation is running at 40-year highs and it’s coming from every angle: food, energy, services, goods, rents, and wages which are all increasing.
Is the Fed up to the challenge? Can it rein in inflation without causing a recession? What can we expect as borrowers and investors?
We have lots of questions to ask this week’s guest but we know from his past performance he can take them all in stride.
Paul McCulley is currently an adjunct professor at Georgetown Business School where he teaches a very timely multi-disciplinary course combining law, economics, monetary policy, global finance and behavioral finance.
McCulley says this Fed has the courage to defeat inflation despite recession risk.

+1 My family moved to the Detroit area for a few years after I was born (roughly ‘48-‘52). Dad worked at Dodge Main and than the Warren Tank plant.@Hank. Detroit guy here …
SCHY. + YTD 0.23%. .........It's very young.How does SCHY compare in this segment?
Thanks, Yogi. I just learned another lesson in how incredibly crazy, arcane, complicated and stoopid the US Tax Code is. ;)Many foreign funds have the PFIC issues and IDV is no exception, https://www.ishares.com/us/literature/tax-information/pfic-2021.pdf
Basically, rules for the US funds to hold physical assets (real estate/property, bullion, etc) are different from those for foreign funds. So, to make things even, there are US PFIC regulations. These require that unrealized gains related to physical assets flow through earnings/income and some related realized losses also be distributed. THAT makes distributions variable for the US investors.

learning_center/weekly_chart/multiyear_records_for_aaii_surveySome analysts criticize the AAII’s survey methodology, and with good reason. The participants in the survey volunteer themselves, as opposed to a random telephone poll for example. And the participants may change from week to week, as individuals decide to cast a vote or not. This is not how a proper survey should be done, but doing a proper survey is a lot more expensive. And even a “proper” survey is still going to be a flawed representation of the whole population; that’s just a feature of any type of survey.
With all that said, we can move forward and look at this week’s readings of 15.8% bulls and 48.4% bears, confident that these numbers are not going to be perfectly accurate. But they can still probably be seen as useful to contemplate as a statement about investor sentiment. Sentiment reflects a “condition”, not a “signal”.
Even more noteworthy than the bull-bear spread being the worst since 2013 is the observation that the bullish percentage alone was the lowest since 1992, and it was the 9th lowest bullish percentage ever. The AAII survey only began in July 1987, so we do not know what it would have told us during any period in history before 1987.
@Derf Yes. I was 4 or 5. Could buy a very nice sized candy bar for 5 cents.Can anyone remember when a nickel would buy a nice sized candy bar ?
And there’s nothing wrong having a few sticks of dynamite in your portfolio - as long as you know it’s there! For dealing with high explosives I might prefer a stock - or two or three - over a fund.The March commentary reads like Cathie Wood on steroids. Generational opportunity in the current portfolio. I hold out hope, but what a shellacking YTD! That being said, it's the type of fund that can make up 15% in a week.
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