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Most investors have missed the move from 10,000 to 15,000
Reply to @Desota: Dunno. My contribution to the dissolution of the thread was to try and learn more about the gentleman cited in the OP - who just happens to run an investment advisory company. Not that it's all that necessary - just out of curiosity. ... And yep - the main focus should be on the lack of investor participation vs. the dramatic gains in equities in recent past. Here, speaking distinctly as a novice, I'll observe that all those reported $$ flows in and out of funds or markets that we hear so much about (and often comment on here), really don't mean "piddely". Mr. Market's gonna do what he wants to do - regardless of inflows & outflows. Right? Or am I still missing the point?
Reply to @hank: Not to drag this out any further but I think the in- and out-flows mean just the opposite of "piddly." Without folks buying or selling the market just sits there doing nothing doesn't it? Or am I missing the point (again)?
With respect to your original comment, I too try to ascertain the background or credibility of cited posters/commentators/bloggers and so on. It's the right thing to do if your intention is to lend any veracity to their musings. IMHO so far Mr. Miller checks out unlike so many, many others that we both, no doubt, can list.
Appreciate all the comments. Really. Rather than respond to any individual, here's my take-away from this worthwhile exchange: Evidence seems to point to most investors staying out of the market while U.S. equities rocketed 50% higher over roughly 2 years. Investor cites a statement from a blogger who runs an investment advisory service - and who seems otherwise well regarded as a reputable source. And, bee has attached charts showing the same pattern, with $$ flowing out of the markets over that period. A few explanations from various posters (sorry if I've omitted some) are: (1) Leveraged buying on margin, enabling just a few investors to drive up the indexes, (2) The observation that "most investors" does not necessarily equate to "most money." Perhaps a relative handful of the wealthiest have invested and profited - as masses of small investors stayed out. (3) Another suggestion alludes to secret Fed purchases of equities. I dismissed this one as just "teasing" by the poster. However, it's possible he meant it. And , no doubt, if you Google the topic you'll find conspiracy theories of all sorts - including, I suppose, that Obama's buying up equities in secret to bolster his secret plan to serve a third term and take away all our guns in the process. It's all out there, if you want to go to conspiracy theories.
Here's a fourth possibility - thanks to a former employer with a gifted sense of humor many years ago. Whenever we encountered a seemingly impassable situation, he'd always say: "You know, It could be a lot worse. Have you heard the one about the elephant chasing his tail?" Along that line of reasoning, it's possible only a small handful of investors are chasing their own tails - bidding up equities to unsustainable levels before the inevitable collapse. (I guess that would meet the definition of a bubble:-) Good investing to all.
I know I don't post much, but I have been a member of the community for a long time, under various names.
One of the beauties of the old fundalarm, was that when the black helicopters of this type of converstation started to circle the post got closed down.
Reply to @steppinrazor: With all respect sir, that was the rule there, but FA did not have a separate category for Off-Topic conversations and exchanges of viewpoint. MFO does, and there is no requirement that you visit the off-topic arena or any particular off-topic thread if you find it to be offensive or irritating. To superpose your personal perspective on the larger community is nothing less than an attempt at censorship.
Earlier remark retracted. That's just Catch tripping out. Probably sniffed too much glue on that project. I've had more than my share of space here. Nothin more to say. In deference to OJ, I'd like to leave her open a while longer. Others may have more to add. I guess Investor's the one to make the final call on possibly closing thread.
No, honestly: we all discuss a great many items from day to day. But I appreciate Catch-22 for reminding us that this game is juiced and skewed (by the Fed.) I said it in a different way a while ago: today's Market is divorced from true fundamentals, spinning asymmetrically. There are points of comparison and measures of performance, but Big Brother is manipulating the topography, if not everything else. We have literally invested in Brother's game, hoping for the best. Our Catch-22 is NOT the (scapegoat) Emmanuel Goldstein.
Comments
With respect to your original comment, I too try to ascertain the background or credibility of cited posters/commentators/bloggers and so on. It's the right thing to do if your intention is to lend any veracity to their musings. IMHO so far Mr. Miller checks out unlike so many, many others that we both, no doubt, can list.
"Mr. Market's gonna do what he wants to do - regardless of inflows & outflows. Right? Or am I still missing the point? "
Agreed. For me that's the point of stock dividends. If I'm not going to be paid for holding a stock I don't want it. (not to change the topic)
Here's a fourth possibility - thanks to a former employer with a gifted sense of humor many years ago. Whenever we encountered a seemingly impassable situation, he'd always say: "You know, It could be a lot worse. Have you heard the one about the elephant chasing his tail?" Along that line of reasoning, it's possible only a small handful of investors are chasing their own tails - bidding up equities to unsustainable levels before the inevitable collapse. (I guess that would meet the definition of a bubble:-) Good investing to all.
One of the beauties of the old fundalarm, was that when the black helicopters of this type of converstation started to circle the post got closed down.
chip, could you do the honors please?
We are now using stealth drones; that is not the sound of hummingbird wings you hear outside. Smile for the camera.