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6% returns

edited November 2013 in Fund Discussions
Hello, again, everyone. I did have that conversation with the Merrill Lynch guy. He was both charming and smart. The conversation was animated, we were connecting very well. And he did not try to sell me anything. It turns out that there is a way --- if I choose to do it --- whereby one of his underlings could handle my portfolio under his guidance. But the catch is that I would have to turn my stuff over to them rather completely. They would want to take the freedom and responsibility to choose the mutual funds in which to invest my money. (The standard minimum threshold is $250,000, but I'll never get there.)

He was wonderful, really. He listened, and he wanted to know about some basic stuff. Even though he's doing this at no charge for me--- because my friend is a client of his, and recommended him to me!

Before I said goodbye, I asked, and he told me a 6% return would be realistic. That seems weak, but at least--- I told myself--- he's being realistic.

He showed me a list of funds they typically use. I noticed a great many are run by insurance companies. I've been warned about that. I do know (just) enough to make sure I look for NO-LOAD funds.

I'm enjoying all the different items that get posted here in Mutual Fund Observer. So much to learn about!

Comments

  • edited November 2013
    Hi Crash,

    You noted: "He showed me a list of funds they typically use. I noticed a great many are run by insurance companies. I've been warned about that."

    This then means that you only saw a list of funds, but don't have the list of funds?

    What indicated that many of the funds on the list were vendored by insurance companies?

    Was he attempting to sell you some type of insurance product using mutual funds?

    Back to work for me.

    Regards,
    Catch
  • edited November 2013
    Hi Crash,

    Doing the math ... and, expected returns.

    On a well diversified portfolio a six percent return going forward is indeed a posibility by my thinking. Taking my own allocation and applying it on a $100,000.00 hypothetical amount which would equal $20,000 in cash at a zero return and then $25,000 to income at a return of 4% would be $1,000 in gains and then putting the rest $55,000 in stocks with an anticipated return of 8% results in gains for stocks in the amount of $4,400.00. Add the gains and I get an expected return of $5,400.00 or 5.4%. With this, expectations going forward based upon current elevated market valuations puts anticipated return expectation somewhat on the limited side. I am thinking the easy money has already been made over the next couple of years. No doubt stocks have had a good run ... but, things just don't go upward forever.

    I assure you Merrill Lynch will cost just as much to do business with them as some of the other major brokerage houses with neighborhood offices. And, Merrill Lynch is not without its problems either.

    Since you have heard from Merrill Lynch why not hear form the "bad guys" Edward Jones, Scottrade and Raymond James. All these have neighborhood offices. Then you have four choices of brokers that you can get in front of and do business face-to-face with the one of your choosing. Then there are some of the online brokers that you might explore also. Their cost will most likely be less. Scottrade, I beleive, has a mutual fund NTF platform. I have provided a link. They perhaps can provide the best of both worlds, in office broker advise when needed; and, internet access to online investing. Hey, why not take the tour?

    https://www.scottrade.com

    I think Catch 22 was on to something ... you might have been told about an insurance product with a six percent "guranteed" investment return feature. If so, my thinking, is you'll pay for a rider to get that. Many insurance products use mutual funds as investment vehicles.

    Knock on some doors, talk to some people ... and, then get back with us and let us know what you have discovered. Thus far you have told us little about your tolerance for risk, your goals, your capacity, time horozon, etc. All this should figure in. And, then you get to investment choices? You might look at David's list of Great Owl funds. They have been through some pretty close review by a former NASA engineer with a review process that I want go into. Thank you, Charles.

    Hope this helps ...

    Old_Skeet
  • Hello, again. This fellow DID in fact send me home with a list of funds they typically use, and a sample statement from a real woman, with all of her own personal information removed, cut out. That was just to illustrate what the statements look like and the sort of break-down they do for clients.

    Of course, there are many others. And it was just an initial meeting. What I intended to say above was that in round numbers, a diversified portfolio could expect to earn 6% going forward, according to this fellow. It had nothing to do at all with buying insurance. Our entire conversation was all about stock and bond funds. But as you know, many insurance companies operate mutual funds. I recognized BlackRock, Eaton Vance, Dreyfus. But there was also a John Hancock fund on the sample. And Prudential. Both insurance companies. I just happen to KNOW that.

    We agreed that I actually do NOT want to abdicate from being able to choose the mutual funds where my money will go.

    He was quite helpful, though. There was no hard-sell at all. At this point, the follow-up conversation he offered to have with me will be gratis. I am not, nor will become, a client. He's doing this as a favor for my long-time friend, who recommended me to this ML guy. First impressions are lasting. I was impressed.
  • edited November 2013
    Many modern brokers and advisers are very savvy, poised, articulate, well-trained, and undefensive. I know this from family and friend experience. Some even do pro bono work of this sort to promote good vibe and their brand --- lasting, as you say. I have seen this many times. This is not a reason to go with them or not go with them. But I have heard of experiences like yours many times over, whether independent 1% CF_ types and in-house brokerage types. Don't know about 6% going forward, but sure, why not dream?
  • edited November 2013
    Crash,

    One simple question. Would you marry someone after the first date? I hope your answer is "of course not!"

    Many of these brokers have been to charm school.

    Sounds to me like you got a "song and dance" ... and, now you are "head over heals."

    Think on it ... Do yourself a favor ... And, Go Talk To Some Others. They want usually charge you either ... to talk ... unless they are a fee only based advisor and many of them don't charge until you become a client. You might seek one of them out so you have a compairson. We have one that visits the board from time-to-time and that is BobC. He has been very helpful to many. And, I don't think he mailed anyone an invoice until after taking them on as a client.

    Have a good evening.

    Old_Skeet

  • edited November 2013
    Hello, again!
    I just now stopped by, again. I'm paying attention, for sure. And as I said above, though I'm impressed with him--- the ML guy--- I will NOT become a client. I don't meet their asset threshold, and further, I would not want to give up the chance to choose funds on my own. That special arrangement, in which his intern would handle everything, is fine for folks who are not interested in doing their homework and WANT to "abdicate" from making financial decisions--- leaving it in the hands of their financial adviser. But I personally need to have more control. I can't just turn all my stuff over to someone else and leave it at that. :)
  • edited November 2013
    Hi Crash. The list of funds the advisor gave you is likely the funds that are on their "platform". For them, they get a kick back for getting you into the fund. Pretty standard in the industry.

    If you think you need an advisor, look for a fee-only person. I think the big-box advisors first priority is often picking funds where they get the best kick-back. Funds from insurance companies are often on these lists. This website will give you fee only advisors in your are. NAPFA is a very reputable organization.
    http://www.napfa.org/

    This link explains the differences in advisor fees
    http://moneyover55.about.com/od/findingqualifiedadvisors/g/Feeonlyadvisor.htm

    All advisors, fee only or fee based, are in the business to make money. That is understandable and not a bad thing. But if the advisor is pigeon holed into only specific fund choices, that's not the greatest situation for you. Many of the funds you read about on this board will not be available at the big-box store. A fund often talked about here on MFO for example, RPHYX, would never be available to you with Merrill Lynch.
  • RPHYX, if it was open, is available at Merrill Edge which is part of Merrill Lynch.

  • Reply to @Art: Thanks Art, not a good example I guess.
  • Very nice of you guys to be watching out for me. I will look at the links.
  • Crash, this all has a familiar ring to it. About 20 years we wanted to change brokers, so I want to a guy at Smith Barney. I explained our goals in some detail - we had mutual funds in taxable and non-taxable accounts and wanted to continue along that route.

    He completely ignored my plans, and sailed off into a well-rehearsed sales pitch for an annuity. At first I was taking notes, but then, when I realized what he was doing, I stopped. When he finished I thanked him and got out of there with the straightest face I could manage.

    Be careful out there, and good luck -

    Archaic
  • TNK
    edited November 2013
    Please watch those two documentaries:

    http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/retirement-gamble/





    I am 30 years old, and I have all my savings in the stock market, but my whole 401k is in VTSMX, with a 0.17% expense ratio.
    Don't forget the sales person makes money when you pay him.

    This is what Buffet has to say: http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2013/01/24/buffett-hedge-fund-bet/
  • edited November 2013
    Reply to @MikeM:

    Thanks for providing the link for clarifying the difference between fee based and fee only. This year I switched over to ML from Fido, and although very pleased with how portfolio is now positioned, there are some Vanguard funds they cannot buy, as well as others. I was able to hold some I already had, but could not add to them such as VDIGX and VPCCX. I had to sell my MAPOX when I transferred, since they could not hold it, but bought FPACX in its place. When I chose two stocks to purchase this week with proceeds of my sale of GLD, the advisor was not able to comment on one of them, since it is not one they cover. This can be somewhat limiting, but she did not try and talk me out of it. just could not provide an opinion. However, if there is a fund I want to buy and they don't sell it, I don't mind reopening Fido or TD Ameritrade to do what I want. I do value the information provided and she has stopped me a few times from selling a stock which I thought would go down further (she also advised me to sell GLD almost a year ago, but kept it and sold at 20% loss). I feel the .65% annual fee is fair, and it does give me access to many funds with reduced ER since they can buy Institutional shares, but I also do much of the fund and stock picking with her input. I have gone against her opinion a time or two and have stood my ground where I felt I was right. I do thank her for introducing me to PKW and funds I could not have bought (including some closed funds) if I were still at Fido, but I am quite pleased with this advisor, it just has some limitations.
  • Holy cow. I don't understand this. It sounds simple, but how can this be? I though mutual funds were supposed to be making money? Capitalist enterprises? But this makes it sound like a credit union or something.
    "Vanguard is owned by the funds themselves and, as a result, is owned by the investors in the funds."
  • edited November 2013
    Reply to @Crash:

    Hello there again,

    Welcome to world of investing ... Sometimes, things are not meant to be understood or easily understood?

    I feel if you stay with it ... and, hang in with us on the board for a while ... in time ... the answers you seek will become common knowledge for you. There will be many that will step forward and try to help you through this journey.

    I updated one of my above post with a link to Scottrade. You might wish to check it out as it might be your answer to get some face-to-face help form time-to-time with things that you don't understand while at the same time providing access to the lower cost usually associated with the use of their online investment services. Although, I am not currently a Scottrade customer ... I just might be in the near future as I plan to split my assets up among a few brokerage houses in the near future. They will all tell you they can do a better job if they have it all. Don't believe it as they will most likely have different views, investment ideas and perspectives on the markets.

    I sincerely wish you the very best with your investing endeavors.

    Have a good weekend ... and, most of all know that those of us that made comments did so in the spirit of helping someone else. I am sorry if I came across in a most direct manner. That's not your problem. It's mine. And, again, I apologize for being so direct with you but not for the message that I delivered.

    Old Skeet

  • :) No apology is in order. No one has done anything to offend me. Catch you later.
  • TNK is exactly right and his choice of VTSMX appropriate for a 30 yr old. Look up the recommended funds from your broker(s) on Morningstar or Yahoo for 1, 3, 5, 10 yr results and compare them to Vanguard similar index fundsfor results. I did that for a few more funds and sold 2/3. I kept the ones beating their indices significantly, but I'll check on them and sell them when they start regressing to the mean. I'll transfer the proceeds to Vanguard ETFs mimicking the avowed stock classes of the former funds and save about 1% a year on fees although I'll keep back some cash, as the more prudent managers were, to invest after the next correction. I should have done this long ago, but it's so much more exciting to chase interesting fund ideas. Bogle would doubt the wisdom of investing in market segments, probably correctly, but following a slight small cap value bias in the US market probably works, and might be useful abroad. The ETFs have no minimum, but you have to pay the brokerage to buy them and have to have an account. Vanguard's mutual fund minimums might limit your dispersion, probably better in the long run anyway.
    While I have no qualms about you getting all the advice you can from people trying to sell you something, there is little reason to think they have anything you need to buy.
    While several posters question the concept, Mr. Bogle recommends viewing Social Security as a bond equivalent, allowing you to keep more money in stocks later in your life.
  • edited November 2013
    .
  • Reply to @STB65: Fascinating idea, to think of SS as a bond substitute. I'm going to hold off on taking SS as long as I can. Some of what you're describing is a little over my head.
  • edited November 2013
    Great discussion - mostly beyond my knowledge base. I would like to add, however, that in today's interest rate environment, a 6% guaranteed annual return would be very nice. That's not to say one wouldn't do better on their own with a diversified mix of funds over the longer term - but if I could lock-in 6% for the next decade or two I'd grab it. (For comparison, the 10 year Treasury Bond currently yields well under 3%.) This assumes one is at or close to retirement and that no extra fees should be paid, effectively reducing that return.
  • Crash, it's good that you want to have control over your investments rather than turning it over to someone else. Brokers are in business to make money for themselves, not for you. Have you ever heard of them returning money when their fund picks go sour? What I did through the years was to select no-load, low expense funds, and buy direct from the major fund firms (Fidelity, Janus, TRPrice, and Vanguard). Funds like TRBCX, VFINX, FMEIX, VIMAX, FSCRX, PRNHX, and PRIDX. I'm still holding JANEX and JANIX, but not recommending them. It's a small enough group to keep track of, reasonably diversified in terms of capitalization, with easy year-end tax accounting, and I have full control. Other picks might make you richer, but these have kept me comfortable and out of the poor house!
  • Reply to @bilvihur: Wonderful. I want to look at those picks. Just give me a few days, at least.:)
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