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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • MUTUAL FUNDS WHY?
    The landscape for actively managed mutual funds will be increasingly competitive.
    Prerequisites for most of the remaining open-end funds (OEFs) will include low costs and good returns.
    Some OEFs will continue to exist since corresponding ETFs are not available (this may change in the future).
    The shifting landscape will take years to unfold.
    Although many mutual funds will be liquidated or merged into other funds, a sizable amount will remain.
    I'd argue this is a good development since many unnecessary mutual funds exist.
    Investors seeking exposure to a particular asset class or category can analyze OEFs, ETFs, and CEFs to determine the best solution.
  • Treasury Secretary Yellen says rates “may have to rise somewhat ….”
    LOL (click here)
    Markets reacted to the non-sensical statement, so am posting it. What in h*** Yellen is trying to achieve with a statement like that escapes me, unless Powell asked her to sow the seeds of rising rates in investors’ minds prior to the Fed moving.
  • Remembering Charles de Vaulx
    Ya, crazy. The guy seemed to have a decent reputation but also seemed very intense in every interview I ever saw him in.
    Did like his philosophy...his fund was not meant to make you rich but to keep you rich, meaning focus on what can go wrong. I've stated it here before, NO ONE should be surprised when the market is down 40-50% from here...we all kind of know things are way out of kilter, way over valued, distorted, artificial...but yet...we post like we are experts and have a handle on what we are doing...we kinda know it's all a shit show and we can't seem to escape the pull of greed.
    Dang shame, he felt the way he did, mental illness, despondency is a terrible thing. He obviously could not stand losing what he worked so hard to build.
    Prayers out to him, his family and his friends.
    Baseball Fan
  • Anyone care to venture a guess where S&P ends the year ?!
    If you change the aspect ratio of the Shiller cape, it may change how we think, to some extent (using family history site as graph placeholder).
    Tech bubble is quite clear, otherwise smoothish growth w 08-09 dip and recent sick runup, but how odd really, given tina / cheap money? 1980ff.
    https://davidrmoran.files.wordpress.com/2021/04/shiller_pe_asprat.png?w=1024
  • Bond funds with the best 15-year returns
    https://www.financial-planning.com/list/bond-funds-with-the-best-15-year-returns
    Bond funds with the best 15-year returns
    By Andrew Shilling
    Managers behind fixed-income funds with the biggest long-term gains nearly double their peers. After a year marked by a global pandemic and near-zero rate environment, their shorter term returns were subsequently even more impressive.
    The 20 top-performing bond funds of the past 15 years, with at least $100 million in assets under management, had an average gain of more than 7%, Morningstar Direct data show. Over the past 12 months, the same funds notched an average return of almost 18%.
    When considering the bond-market landscape over the shorter timer, it may be hard to fathom the same success in the years to come, says Tom Bradley, managing director and head of capital markets at Miami-based fixed-income software vendor YieldX.
    “Last year was an aggressive year for fixed-income performance with global central banks slashing rates as a result of COVID-19, and at the same time re-engaging in secondary market bond purchasing — the perfect combination for high-yield performance,” Bradley says. “Now that markets have plateaued and interest rates globally look grounded (possibly trending higher in the U.S.), fixed income will become a more nuanced sector to invest in as opposed to the ‘rising tide lifts all ships’ mantra of the last few years.”
    Compared with broader markets, the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG), which has a 0.04% net expense ratio, recorded a 15-year gain of just 4.23%, data show. Over the past year, the fund had a gain of 0.32%.
    In stocks, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) have had 15-year returns of 10.20% and 10.28%, respectively. In the past 12 months, SPY and DIA had gains of 50.29% and 45.30%. The funds have net expense ratios of 0.09% and 0.16%.
    Morgan Stanley captures surge in retail investing thanks to timely E-Trade purchase
    Despite record growth in wealth management, an otherwise rosy earnings report was marred by $911 million loss related to Archegos Capital.
  • Alibaba
    The fine is aimed at the monopoly practice that Alibaba is practicing, not the type of business. Alibaba must not discourage or block other BTB companies when offering the same products or services to the consumers. That is considered anti-competitive practices. There must be more details on Alibaba that the public have not seen.
    In the past, Microsoft was fine multiple times in Europe and US when they tied the Windows operating system to the Internet Explorer browser while they are other third party browsers, i.e. Netscape and few others. Microsoft went as far as crippling third party browsers and making them inoperable. I personally like Firefox and later Goggle Chrome for their speed and connectivity. After the court ruling, Microsoft has to sell their OS with debundle browser and allow the consumer to choose their preferred browser. Today Windows 10 OS can run multiple browsers including their own new ones, Edge and Blue Edge.
    More info:
    Beijing wants Alibaba to stop requiring merchants to chose between doing business with it and rival platforms, a practice known as ‘merchant exclusivity’, which critics say helped it become China’s largest e-commerce operation.
    Aside from imposing the fine, among the highest ever antitrust penalties globally, the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) ordered Alibaba to make “thorough rectifications” to strengthen internal compliance and protect consumer rights.
    “The required corrective measures will likely limit Alibaba’s revenue growth as a further expansion in market share will be constrained,” said Lina Choi, Senior Vice President at Moody’s Investors Service.
    “Investments to retain merchants and upgrade products and services will also reduce its profit margins.”
    SAMR said it had determined Alibaba, which is also listed in New York, had prevented its merchants from using other online e-commerce platforms since 2015.
    The practice, which the SAMR has previously spelt out as illegal, violates China’s antimonopoly law by hindering the free circulation of goods and infringing on the business interests of merchants, the regulator said.
    The probe comes as China bolsters SAMR with extra staff and a wider jurisdiction amid a crackdown on technology conglomerates, signalling a new era after years of laissez-faire approach.
    The agency has taken aim recently at China’s large tech giants in particular, mirroring increased scrutiny of the sector in the United States and Europe.
    https://reuters.com/article/us-china-alibaba/alibaba-shrugs-off-2-75-billion-antitrust-fine-shares-rally-idUSKBN2BZ01P
    Alibaba's anti-trust practice is no differ than those practices used by Standard Oil and AT&T (MaBell) before the breakup into smaller business units.
  • Anyone care to venture a guess where S&P ends the year ?!
    Anybody who is in the prediction business must be wrong.
    Here are a list of
    some famous "experts" Bogle, GMO, Arnott, Gundlach, Shiller
    Others, PE, PE10=CAPE, inverted yield, overvalue, the sky is falling every other week.
    KISS for most: know your goals and risk tolerance, select asset allocation accordingly, make minimal changes, stay the course, stay invested. Pretty boring stuff.
    Disclaimer: I don't practice the above.
  • Anyone care to venture a guess where S&P ends the year ?!
    The stock market can't just go up forever. Per the Motley Fool's "A Stock Market Crash May Be Imminent" article (bold added by me).....
    "Dating back 150 years, there have only been five instances where the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has surpassed and sustained 30. The Shiller P/E ratio measures average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years and is also known as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE. On April 6, the Shiller P/E ratio for the S&P 500 was nearly 36.7, which is well over double its historic average of 16.8.
    Furthermore, in the previous four instances where the S&P 500's Shiller P/E hit 30, the index lost anywhere from 20% to as much as 89% of its value. Although we're unlikely to see Great Depression-like losses of 89% ever again, at least a 20% decline has been the recipe when valuations get extended."
  • Morningstar article on ARK
    The whole thing w 'escape velocity' of tech companies = 'no stopping them', quite aside from the Trump support, religious devotion, Laffer influence, makes for a challenge for my moneys. Looking at etf Moon in lieu.
    These, from a while ago, are fun to read:
    https://www.reddit.com/r/ArkInvestorsClub/comments/lqugs1/cathie_wood_reveals_starting_ark_was_fulfilling/
    https://www.coindesk.com/cathie-wood-most-influential-2020
  • Preparing Your Portfolio for Inflation
    Sorry I was unclear. I meant that if an investor is knowledgeable about the types of investments that would prosper during an inflationary environment before inflation becomes a paramount consideration he stands a better chance of making good decisions earlier on (ie: the early bird)) should rising and persistent inflation come to fruition.
    Many other scenarios as well could arise to alter the economic landscape going forward including, but not limited to, higher taxation, stronger regulation, materials shortages, war, civil unrest, plague. So - best to think about about as many eventualities / outcomes in your educational experiences as time, resources and intellect allow.
    I didn’t see @bee’s OP so much a cry that inflation is coming as an intellectual challenge for folks to think about the possibility of higher inflation in the near future and how it might impact investment decisions. In the same vein, T. Rowe Price’s piece was cautious and circumspect on the issue, sharing some investment classes that might benefit from higher inflation without making any bold predictions. Thanks for asking. Aim to please.
  • Preparing Your Portfolio for Inflation
    Josh Brown Piece:
    On the economic and investment side, the quants at BofA are thinking that... over 60% of the bank’s analysts see rising prices in their respective coverage universe. One of BofA’s top strategists, Michael Hartnett, is talking about 2020 being the secular bottom for rates and inflation.
    and,
    ... a whole lot of fiscal stimulus and monetary stimulus, too. But here we are, at the big, fat middle part of an economic expansion with rising prices, capex growth, increasing demand for skilled labor and a massive, generational infrastructure bill on the way.
    whats-changed-for-now-and-whats-changed-forever
    Recent Michael Hartnett Pieces:
    The value of U.S. financial assets are now six times the size of gross domestic product. “Wealth gains obscene, but extreme asset bubbles natural end to nihilistic bull markets of past decade,” he said.
    And longer-term drivers of disinflation were poised to wane, too. Fiscal authorities were now more open to increased spending and central banks were now explicitly targeting higher inflation as a goal.
    Hartnett anticipated the coming decade could show similarities to the late 60s and early 70s when inflation and interest rates started to lift off as investors questioned the combination of easy fiscal and monetary policy.
    So what does this all mean?
    First of all, investors will have to get used to a world of lower investment returns, while dealing with an upturn in volatility, said Hartnett.
    And the ravages of inflation could turn negative returns in fixed-income into the norm. Instead, investors should look to take shelter in assets that tend to thrive during period of price pressures such as commodities.
    inflation-rebound-means-40-year-bull-market-in-bonds-is-over-says-bofa
    sell-the-vaccine-in-response-to-violent-inflationary-price-action-bank-of-america-strategist-says
  • Finding the Right Benchmark for Your Portfolio
    Our benchmark remains FBALX. Yes, a bit "hot" for many in retirement, as an investment. Though not invested in the fund in 2008, it took a big hit, too; as with many other 70/30% funds. We have been able to get close to the 15 year return of 8.48, which has changed from about an average of 8.2% annualized as 2020 returns bumped this number. We attempt to get close to 7.5-8% annualized. 'Course, as expected, not unlike others; we've had the very good years get whacked by the poop years. Our largest portfolio benefit was to escape the 2000 and 2008 melts. Not fun to "make up" a portfolio loss from an actual sell. We have not yet decided whether FBALX will be a major percent holding when we stop meddling with our holdings. Our active would become a psuedo passive with FBALX management of the money.

    YTD, 1-Year, 3-Year, 5-Year, 10-Year, 15-Year, Since Inception (7 periods time frame)
    Returns 3.78% 59.15% 14.23% 13.68% 11.03% 8.48% 9.76%
    Category Ranking % 21 32 7 4 3 4 7
    # of funds category 695 697 664 639 571 411 300
  • Couple Municipal investments-Best Municipal Bond Funds to Buy and Hold and myths w muni bonds
    https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2021/03/19/taxable-municipals-myths-and-misperceptions
    https://news.yahoo.com/9-best-municipal-bond-funds-211119796.html
    Taxable Municipals – Myths and Misperceptions
    by Tony Tanner of Ivy Investments, 3/19/21
    Taxable Municipal Bonds grabbed the attention of not only municipal bond market participants in 2020, but also of investors and financial professionals globally across the asset class landscape.
    9 Best Municipal Bond Funds to Buy and Hold
    Debbie Carlson
    State and local governments are in good shape.
    ***Like other asset classes, the municipal bond market rebounded after the initial sell-off last year because of the pandemic. Amy Magnotta, co-head of discretionary portfolios at Brinker Capital Investments, says state and local governments "are actually in pretty good shape, surprisingly, despite the pandemic," noting most state revenues were roughly flat in 2020 versus 2019. With President Joe Biden's stimulus money and infrastructure plan, and the reopening of many states' economies, the fiscal situation for many state and local governments might be good as they get cash injections. However, she says, with interest rates so low, investors need to be careful what funds they choose. Here are nine muni bond funds to buy.
    Vanguard Tax-Exempt Bond ETF (ticker: VTEB)
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    Todd Rosenbluth, director of ETF and mutual fund research at CFRA, says exchange-traded fund VTEB is a good place for muni bond investors to start when building this part of their portfolio. The fund tracks the S&P Municipal Bond Index, which is made of investment-grade issues and diversified across states. VTEB's annual cost is 0.06%, which amounts to $6 for every $10,000 invested, one of the lowest among its peers. The fund is free from both federal income tax from the alternative minimum tax. The yield is 2%. "It's a great core part of the portfolio," Rosenbluth says.
    Baird Short-Term Municipal Bond Fund (BTMIX)
    The municipal bond universe can be an inefficient asset class due to its large number of issuers, says Steven Saunders, director and portfolio advisor at Round Table Wealth Management, so his firm prefers to use actively managed funds where the managers can find relative value through security selection and yield-curve positioning. His pick is BTMIX, which "has demonstrated consistent value-add in these areas, and their short-duration strategy allows for defensive positioning in the event rates continue to rise." The fund has an annual cost of 0.3% and a yield of 1.5%.
    - ADVERTISEMENT -
    PIMCO National Municipal Intermediate Value Fund (GNMVX)
    Mark Mumford, director at Hollow Brook Wealth Management, says his firm looks for municipal bonds strategies that have a strong emphasis on credit quality and issuer diversification. GNMVX tries to limit swings in assets under management which can negatively affect a municipal bond strategy, he adds. The fund has a low annual fee of 0.39% and a yield of 1.67%, with an effective duration of 5.3 years. The fund seeks investment-grade bonds with higher yields using fundamental credit research. "Municipal markets can be inefficient, creating opportunities for experienced teams to find value in a low interest rate environment," Mumford says.
    Northern Intermediate Tax-Exempt Fund (NOITX)
    Magnotta says with rates low and a recent pickup in market volatility, she prefers active management and is focusing on investment-grade munis. She chooses NOITX, because she likes that it has an experienced team with a long tenure, holds high-quality issues and has a liquid portfolio. She notes the annual cost of 0.46% is below average. "This is a strategy that long term is a good balance in a portfolio," Magnotta says. This fund has more than $3 billion in assets under management, and the average credit quality in the fund is A-rated.***
    Vanguard Tax-Exempt Bond ETF (VTEB)
    -- Baird Short-Term Municipal Bond Fund (BTMIX)
    -- PIMCO National Municipal Intermediate Value Fund (GNMVX)
    -- Northern Intermediate Tax-Exempt Fund (NOITX)
    -- Nuveen Dynamic Municipal Opportunities Fund (NDMO)
    -- VanEck Vectors High Yield Municipal Index ETF (HYD)
    -- Nuveen High Yield Municipal Bond Fund (NHMRX)
    -- Nuveen All-American Municipal Bond Fund (FAARX)
    -- Northern Arizona Tax-Exempt Fund (NOAZX)
    Several good reasonable funds considered to be added here especially for capital Preservation and retirement accts/and inflation worries.
    We do have HYD but may add some to Mama retired portfolio
    Enjoy
    Happy Saturday
  • Amazon Versus the Unions
    I should have placed the below links in order of dates, but anyway..... there are some portions within the links below to YouTube videos, aside from the actual full length movie or documentary (PBS). The links are broad based so that you may look at whatever related; and present a view of union/company power struggles.
    Companies and unions, the battle between the two; and IMHO is simply based with a system of honor between management/the company and the workers. A form of equality or fairness between making a reasonable profit for a company and a reasonable wage to an employee for their effort in helping making the profit. Sadly, honor is a most difficult condition for a human(s) to maintain.
    Over many years power and corruption have afflicted both groups.
    The modern era example links below, have long and deep roots from time periods long ago. Also, that the time frames below only reflect some of the larger events; while many such events were taking place in many smaller actions all across the U.S. wherever one found an industrial era operation.
    As an 18 y.o. I worked for GM for 16 months, and was a UAW member by default. Not a large learning experience for me at the time, as my brain cells were not fully developed , regarding a union. My largest first time observation of the factory world was the changing of the flavors in the soda/pop vending machines placed through out the enormous facility. The week before major holidays found that any beverage flavor that did not mix well with vodka or a whisky were removed and replaced with a highly favored mixer. Yes, management was fully aware of a high percentage of the work force who were using alcohol during work hours. I knew two shift foreman (management) who had a good buzz in place, periodically; during their 12 hour shift. An old joke was, "Don't buy a new car/truck built during the holidays"........quality control ??? From the alcohol of the 50's through 70's, came weed, coke and other used by employees. Sadly, the protection of union members, by the unions, traveled too far beyond the norm; attempting to protect against anything that was not an actual murder on company property. So much for what should have remained anything to do with being honorable. EX: Assembly line workers taking turns "clocking out, old mechanical time clocks" one another out at the end of a shift, when they had already left the building after 1 hour of work. Problem: True story. Fella left work early, crossed through a nearby rail yard, caught shoe/foot in track/switch unit, needed recuse unit to free foot and had to be taken to hospital emergency from the injury. Appealed that he had a family emergency and had to leave work early; and no other actions were taken against him.
    The Flint, Michigan sit-down strike had a significant impact to the work landscape for many years. The benefits of this action flowed into the non-union wages and benefits, too; at least in Michigan.
    Too many other stories about the companies and the unions; the power and the corruption that plague both of them to this day. But, I'm done; and hope the write flow is not too disruptive.
    Matewan coal mining strike, 1920's, fact based
    Homestead Carnegie steel strike, 1892, fact based
    The Molly Maguires 1970 movie circa 1870's, book/movie inspired by true events.
    Copper Country strike, 1913, fact based
    The game changer, Flint Michigan, sit-down strike, 1936-1937
    Michigan, right to work law , an at will employee
    A further restriction/addition to this law was signed by the governor in 2013; regarding union membership. Prior employee (non-union) rights already had many restrictions to rights of employment in Michigan. A real world example took place in 2003, of which; I was witness. A company was re-shaping their employee base and terminated 4 people who were in their late 50's-early 60's and not yet at a full retirement age. A "no charge" meeting was held with a pro-labor attorney, regarding that this action appeared to be a "age related discrimination" related termination(s). He offered his experience with such actions and stated that this was a no win case; as if one did not have a series of annual reviews over the years that were graded an "excellent", no basis could be brought forth. So, when one is graded via an annual work review, and there are 10 areas of grading, each area must be the equivalent of "excellent", the highest possible rating. This indeed, would be a rare event in any employee's career. The terminations remained in place. My personal note, is that these 4 where honorable and ethical persons who gave a good days work to the company.
  • Why in the World Would You Own Bond (Funds) When…
    @davidmoran in this economy... with the wealth of investment choices... Why.... “have a lot of money earning zero too”?
    That’s not criticism ... I’m trying to learn what I don’t know. I’m looking out for a family member and asking the same questions... re investments and this market and conditions we are in.
    YTD S&P 500 is up 5.50%
    Tell me about it. Don't I know it. I will be interested in your own responses to your own questions.
    Where if anywhere will you put spare moneys? Where should I put moneys now which I will not need for a few years (not a decade, but not 3-4y either)?
    50-50 VTIP (GTO, MINT) and VONV (VONE, CAPE)? BND and BIV are down. Something additional into ARK and QQQ? Maybe.
    Shiller p/e is close to 36, higher than it has ever been since the Y2k peak-plunge. Each week it goes higher. I coulda written this post, and believe I did, any month of the last 8 or so. We are 2/3 out of market for the last 10mos. In some sense we have enough and are being prudent in retirement. Otoh my wife, not just me, would like to have, or have had, the several hundred thou we 'missed', if I had stayed the course and done nothing.
  • Making Sense of Elevated Stock Market Prices
    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/05/business/stock-market-prices-bubble.html?searchResultPosition=1
    *Making Sense of Elevated Stock Market Prices
    Shares are very expensive, but so are bonds. Even at current prices, the economist Robert J. Shiller says, it is reasonable to keep some wealth in stocks.
    By Robert J. Shiller
    March 5, 2021
    The stock market is already quite expensive. That is evident when you compare current stock valuations with those from previous eras.
    But it is also true that stock prices are fairly reasonable right now.
    That seemingly contradictory conclusion arises when you include other important factors: interest rates and inflation, which are both extremely low.
    Examined on their own, stock valuations are at giddy levels, yet they are far more attractive when viewed side by side with bonds. That’s why it is so hard to determine whether the stock market is dangerously high or a relative bargain.
    Consider that the S&P 500 index of U.S. stock prices has repeatedly set records over the past year, while a measure that I helped to create, the CAPE ratio for the S&P 500, is also at high levels.
    In my view, the CAPE ratio is the more important of these two measures of overpricing because it corrects for inflation and long-term corporate earnings. John Campbell, now at Harvard University, and I defined CAPE in 1988. This is a bit technical, but please bear with me: The numerator is the stock price per share corrected for consumer price inflation, while the denominator is an average over the last 10 years of corporate reported earnings per share, also corrected for inflation.*
    Not sure if you will be maybe happy with your equities portion if you stay long invested (perhaps 15 20 yrs later - if you can avoid major prolong anemic returns and market crashes)
  • Ignoring Energy Transition Realities as We Greenify
    Andy Lane has managed the construction of enormous facilities for extracting and transporting natural gas, in places like Trinidad and Indonesia.
    Now he is working in his native England, taking on a complex and expensive venture that essentially aims to reverse what he has spent much of his career doing.
    Mr. Lane’s newest assignment is designed to collect carbon pollution from a group of chemical plants in northeast England and send it to a reservoir deep under the North Sea.
    The multibillion-dollar project could be a breakthrough for a technology known as carbon capture and storage, a concept that has been around for at least a quarter-century to reduce the climate-damaging emissions from factories.
    The idea sounds deceptively simple: Divert pollutants before they can escape into the air, and bury them deep in the ground where they can do no harm.
    https://nytimes.com/2021/03/08/business/carbon-capture-bp.html
  • Ignoring Energy Transition Realities: Some Unanswered Questions
    Bee's "Ignoring Energy Transition Realities as We Greenify" discussion is important, and addresses quite a number of aspects which I will not discuss here.
    I've taken the unusual step of opening a separate "chapter" on this subject, so to speak, because it seems to me that we, as a nation, are blithely stepping off a cliff without a whole lot of contemplation of the rocky landscape below.
    Bee's discussion, like most others on this subject, makes some assumptions that I seriously question. Those assumptions go to the very heart of the issue: is it even realistically possible to have this electric "Greenification"?

    ***************************************************************************
    As I write this, the last post in Bee's discussion is from kings53man, who contemplates a comforting scene of "thousands/M of electric vehicles [charging] in the night". This is absolutely not to poke fun at kings53man, because his scene is actually a pretty common picture promoted by the Green folks.
    Now, before the bricks start flying, let's establish this: I fully understand the climate dilemma, agree that humans likely are major contributors to the problem, and that "something" major needs to be done, and soon.
    What I have a great problem with are some of the blithe assumptions seemingly thrown out as "solutions", with little or no challenge from the standpoint of practicality. To keep things reasonably easy to contemplate, let's confine our picture to the United States.
    OK, postulate that in "x" number of years no more internal engine vehicles are going to be produced. Anyone wanting a vehicle will need to be driving electrics. Fine... one problem solved.
    Energy. It comes in lots of different packages. To list just four: coal, natural/synthetic gas, gasoline/diesel, electricity. To help visualize the issue, consider each energy package as a number of boxes- that number being relative to the amount of each being currently used. The total amount of energy needed is equal to the volume of all of the various boxes.
    Keeping things simple, lets assume that one box of energy is equal to any other box of energy, and that any kind of box may be transported over any kind of energy distribution network: a mental picture of boxes being transported across the country through trucks and tankers, or more weirdly, shoving their way through pipelines and thin electric grid wires.
    Now, the reality is that all of the presently existing energy transportation networks are pretty close to operational capacity. There's simply not a huge amount of extra room just waiting to be used on the existing electric grids or fuel pipelines.
    ***************************************************************************
    OK, coal is obviously a loser, and can be replaced for the most part by natural gas. So that means more boxes of natural gas, fewer of coal. This is actually under way, and seems pretty easy.
    BUT: natural gas is now deemed unacceptable also, and the proposed premise is to substitute boxes of electricity. Now things are getting a bit more complicated. First of all, the electrical distribution grids of the United States do not have the capacity to transmit a significant additional number of energy boxes.
    Let's step back for a moment and try to visualize a couple of huge mountains of energy boxes. First, those boxes needed to support our national vehicle fleets. Second, the boxes needed to supply heating and cooking for homes and workplaces. It's being proposed that all of those boxes are to be transported somehow over our already stressed electric grids. To me, this is a typical picture of political operators who haven't the faintest idea of the actual practical realities of electrical transmission. Very much like the politicians who are responsible for the Texas power grid network.
    Let's think for a moment about the actual efficiency of various energy types. Yes, electricity can certainly be used to generate heat, and fairly easily too. Unfortunately, it takes significantly more than one box of electricity to equal the heat energy in one box of natural gas energy. In other words, electricity is simply less efficient than natural gas to transport or generate heat.
    Well, that's something that obviously needs more thought, so let's look instead at vehicles. Again, to keep things fairly simple, let's ignore large trucks and similar equipment, and just consider the average automotive vehicle.
    OK, first, lets look at the mountain of energy boxes now supplied by gasoline or diesel fuels, and try to visualize those boxes also being stuffed through the national electric energy distribution systems. H'mmm- that's quite a puzzler also. Existing grids were largely built when the country was less populated, and it was a lot easier to construct major infrastructure without lawsuits and protests. Not suggesting that situation was ideal- simply stating a fact.
    When pundits and promoters talk about the "electric grid system", most of us compose a mental picture of huge steel pylons with heavy electric wires marching across the land. We think something like "well, those really aren't all that pretty, but then the odds of having one of those in my backyard are pretty slim, and most of that stuff is someplace else anyway".
    Really? The next time you're out and about take a moment and look at the wiring on any overhead electric distribution system. Try to imagine having to either replace most of those wires with much thicker wires, or alternately, to double or triple the number of wires. Take a close look at some of those power poles, and note the large metal enclosures which are mounted there. Those are transformers, and they will also need to be either much larger, or have many more of them. Speaking of the power poles themselves- do you notice that many of them are already pretty full of stuff, and that there really isn't a lot of room for more stuff?
    Well, perhaps you're fortunate, and live in a nice middle-class area where everything is neatly underground and out of sight. Sorry- get prepared for a lot of digging and streetwork- all of those systems will need substantial upgrades also.
    Wow! And how exactly is all of this going to be paid for?
    ***************************************************************************
    Well, let's assume some sort of miracle on that, and consider how each new electric vehicle is actually going to receive it's energy packages via the grid.
    Right! We're back to looking at "thousands/M of electric vehicles will charge in the night". Sounds easy enough. It's not too difficult to image a cozy scene of middle-class detached homes with one or two electric vehicles happily guzzling boxes of electric energy while their owners sleep away the night. OK, that's under control.
    But what about the huge number of Americans who live in apartments, multi-family housing, or who need to park their vehicles on the street because they don't have suitable garage space?
    And, thinking about this a little more, exactly what kind of plugs and extension cords will all of this need? The present vehicle charging systems don't just plug into the nearest 120 volt outlet with a #14 extension cord from Home Depot. No, each charging station needs to be installed with a power source that is pretty heavy-duty and able to handle the increased load.
    Has anyone, anywhere, even begun to think through the financial implications of any of this? We have a substantial percentage of Americans who even now can barely keep food on the table. And they are going to have to install an expensive charging system in older homes which would need significant wiring upgrades to even accommodate this?
    So now we are telling those people "sorry- but having a vehicle is just for the better-off folks"?
    ***************************************************************************
    I've deliberately only touched on a few of the aspects of this whole thing. Having spent much of my career in electronics, I naturally tend to look at things from a somewhat technical point of view, and fully understand that others may not do so. But, as demonstrated here in California, and also so very recently in Texas, placing ignorant political activists of any persuasion in charge of problems requiring some degree of interest in and understanding of technical reality is not particularly helpful.
  • Digging into Ark Innovation's Portfolio
    @Mark, apologies can't tell if you meant sarcasm??
    Hey, don't we all think that unelected officials, he Zuck and West Coast Moses (the Twitter guy) and all the wonderful folks at Google should tell us how we should think and act.
    They are so righteous and just. Stealing our personal info and feeding us brainwashing commentary. Really a form of mind control. Geniuses all of them.
    Not.
    Anyhoo, it appears that Cathie is getting her arse handed to her. We'll see if the drubbing continues in her ETFs. Folks might end up losing way more money in her dumpster fire than the fraud (allegedly) in IQDAX. I'm thinking that is the way it's going to play out. My larger concern is that in the escape from her funds is that the Nasdaq gets pulled down biggly in all the excitement. Again, might be solid buying opportunity.
    As an observer of human nature, I wonder if she will come on Cramer and keep her narrative going, max out the hubris, buying the dip in her "disruptive" companies...you think so?
    Baseball Fan
  • U.S. economy may have its best chance in years to break from era of subpar growth
    What happens to the historical CAPE? Too much cash chasing too few assets ?