Will target fund blow up @MikeM, That's interesting.
I have a 65 year old friend working and participating in a "mandatory 401K plan" through his employer.
Related IRS Reg change:
corporate.findlaw.com/corporate-governance/irs-approves-mandatory-401-k-contributions-if-appropriate.htmlGetting a little deeper into the weeds...your ticker (PAIRX) is the advisor share class with a (.43) Expense ratio. TRRUX is the slimmed down ER version at (.18). My friend share class offered through John Hancock (plan administrator) has it's own ticker different from either PAIRX or TRRBX and I am now wondering if it is a TDF or a RF. I made the assumption they were one in the same. Hancock's version of TRRUX or TRRBX carries an ER closer to 1.18% vs 0.18% from TRPrice...so much for lower costs for investors.
TRPrice also offers a "Personal Strategy Income Fund", (PRSIX), which seems to be a pretty close slice of bread when compared to TRRUX. Is PRSIX the fund a retiree settles into once their TDF reached its target date or do they settle into a
Retirement Fund?
Finally, For each coinciding Target Date Fund their is a
Retirement Fund with a similar year designation offered at TRP. T.Rowe Price has
Retirement Funds (2010, 2015, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050) and Target Date Funds (2010, 2015, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050)...I'm confused!
Will target fund blow up @bee, not sure if you know the difference between the TRP "Target Date" funds and the TRP "
Retirement" Funds. My understanding is the target date funds reduce equity as they get closer to the stated date. The
retirement funds keep the same equity bond distribution. For example the TRP 2020
target date fund (PAIRX) has 45% stocks. The 2020
retirement fund (TRRBX) you used in you chart is around 60% stocks.
I think your analysis and post was much better than the rather useless article though.
Will target fund blow up I will add this... for those invested in TDF and within 15 years of
retirement:
Do some homework. Figure out your
retirement income sources and your likely
retirement budget.
Any shortfall will need to be made up by withdrawing from other investments. This should be considered "safe asset money".
Find some alternatives to even the most conservative TDF (TRRBX for example). Here are a few funds that I quickly compared to TRBBX (VWINX, PRSIX, and AONIX).
Looking at the 2007-2009 time frame is important in this comparison. Find other funds to compare and possibly decide on a few that would appropriate for your "safe asset money" Funds.
Remember volatility can be both negative and positive:

Will target fund blow up This is the most useless thing I have read in some time:
... ask yourself if your TDF's risk level is right for you. Here are three questions to ask your 401(k) ... fund company:
-- How much market risk are you taking within five years of your target or retirement age? If the stock mix is more than 70% in that timeframe, you could get nailed by a bear market.
-- How much bond-market risk are you taking? Shifting most of your money into bonds near retirement is risky as well. ....
Whatever you do, don't plug into these funds and forget about them. Gawd.
@Bee's take above is thorough and thoughtful while Surz's is insanely conservative and seems to ignore recovery times of recent decades.