Yeah, it's a tough time, and I think going to get tougher, more than is being priced in now.
Since Feb 23, AOK and VWINX are about even, with the former showing bigger dip / recovery. Down over 5%, but only that. Praise the Lord.
AOM is a bit behind them, naturally. Two brutal months.
JABAX, FPURX, VLAAX, VWELX, and now VALIX are all bundled back around about the same point today, down 10% plus or minus, with the last one having the greatest dip and recovery over the last 2mos, the others closely tracking and less of a dip.
Of course all have different allocation proportions, but then almost everything has swung in step during this time.
You could conclude that you were simply going to put everything into some mix of AOK and AOM from now on, as someone recently recalled attention to, heading into a dicy future. But as msf and others have pointed out, you could probably do better with some effort and more than some luck. (Famous last words.)
I did not have the energy tonight to plot all of these allocation funds against my bespoke combo of CAPE, VOOG, and BND, so there.

He does good research?
@LB, to jump back onto an earlier horse, would you conclude that the reason VOOG constantly outperforms FXAIX / VOO, and RPG almost does (forget VOOV and RPV), has to do with what the nominally growth ETFs exclude?
(and CAPE beats all, over time)

https://www.financial-planning.com/news/financial-advisors-reassess-portfolios-in-the-wake-of-coronavirus-crisis
/What will portfolio construction look like when the threat of the coronavirus has diminished? While investment fundamentals such as asset allocation, diversification, rebalancing and risk management will remain pillars of financial advice, other areas of building portfolios are set to be reassessed in a changed economic landscape, according to financial advisors and investment professionals./
Advisors approaches to portfolio constructions perhaps starting with hy bond/cash as potential building blocks

Interesting, and interesting to parse the various strands of value in a gross sense.
I just graphed SP500 over 10-7-5-3-1y beating VOOV (SP500 value) and RSP (SP500 equal-weight), with the latter two overlaying much more than not. Both outperform RPV significantly and constantly; DODGX is only somewhat better than RPV.
CAPE is better than everything until 4y and nearer, and then tracks SP500 plus or minus, showing, I guess, that its auto-churn thing is not value but growth cloaked as.
Or maybe I have that backward.

QQQ is the Nasdaq 100, more precisely.
At some point I am planning on doing something quite like this, in my case 1/3 - 1/2 BND (slightly superior to AGG and the others) and the rest in CAPE and VOOG.

@fundfun, I'm not seeing in the Doubleline fund description any where the special bond sauce is the Doublelne low duration fund.
I'm pushing back here because you said that Doubleline does a good job explaining how this fund works. Based on that you say people didn't research the fund properly. I guess I take exception to that comment. DL does not explain the bond side, only that they use derivatives in that space. The bond side is not the low duration fund you point to. You may see that the bond side acts "similar" in return to low duration, but that is after the fact statement. No pre-buy research.
Also on performance per M*, they categorize this fund as LC blend. To that the fund has under-performed the past 1 month...98 percentile, YTD...96 pct, 1 year...90 pct and 3 year... 80 pct. All this with extra volatility.
The fund and the CAPE concept is very intriguing. I don't fault anyone for hanging on or even adding to because of that fact. But data does show it performing poorly in this bear environment. That's the important research to help understand what your buying, at least for me.

MikeM The portfolio is the Cape ETN and a portfolio of bonds similiar to the Doubleline Low Duration bond fund which is down 4-5% this year. This year (3 months) is the first time the fund under-performed it's Mstar category for any period of time. It is more volatile than its category peers. I bought it because I liked the concept and after seeing some of the PIMCO stock plus funds knew over the longer term it should outperform the benchmark.
I like a few of the Doubleline managers and think that Jeff loves attention and is a good marketer and probably has too many funds. I have had good and bad luck with many profiled funds on here and most of them turn out to be average or below, which is unfortunately how this works.
The Int'l CAPE fund has done horribly since the beginning. I owned it for a year and bailed.
I guess we have now learned the the only bonds that hold up in a crash are Treasuries.

The Gundlach bond sauce has been a drag for some time now, not a plus, since before this crisis, although CAPE all on its own has lagged SP500 slightly also for some time.
The bond sauce makes DSE_X more like holding CAPE plus some gogo Pimco fund, or even non-gogo Pimco funds. The fact that it 'added' 6.5% to the ytd loss, if my calcs are right, actually makes Gundlach's bond work look rather better than PONAX and PDVAX and FADMX, forget PCI and PDI.

I think the Doubleline website does a good job of explaining how it works, but I wonder how many people did proper research on it.

Proper research? @fundfun, it is pretty hard to research how a fund may perform in a bear market if it's never been in a bear market. Now we know. A lot of Doublelines info is a sales pitch. Actually the best information I've seen is in past posts here at MFO.
CAPE is a simple concept. That is explained. The bond-derivative part is not explained well at all, so investors have nothing but performance to go by and a leap of faith. From the start this fund was great. The past couple years when value has underperformed so did this fund. Now we know it won't hold up well when bonds are selling off. Now we know.
CAPE ytd = -24.5
DSENX ytd = -31.1

VLAAX -13.8 and VALIX -24.2, ouch
30-70 and 40-60 of the below would be worse than 50-50, obvs, did not compute, but better than the above:
50-50 BND + CAPE = ~-10.5, same as BND + VOO
50-50 BND + VOOG = -7.6

I would be buying CAPE now if I had any investable moneys.

I too have had a toe-hold in DSEEX. I did not buy it to outperform the market. I interpreted Doubleline’s description that it would CYA based on the CAPE strategy. My bad.

I sold it on 3/26 and split the proceeds on the same day between adding to current position AKREX and opening a new position in YAFFX. I prefer funds that protect the down side. I thought this one might do that but results proved me wrong. Take a look at it's upside/down side capture ratio. Pretty poor looking at the past 3 years. The past 1 year returns are very disappointing too.
Oh well, when the results were in, it didn't meet my expectations, which may have been more about CAPE sounding like a great idea. And the secret bond sauce, how tantalizing it was. I wanted to think it was a great long term concept versus relying on managers picking stocks and holding cash, but that's not what the data says.
Glad you started the discussion again. I'm also curious how others see it now.

Market's been especially irrational

@Crash, That is a good one. How about investors being irrational ? Case in point, several months ago @Catch22 posted a topic "Charles Bolin, MFO commentator. Funds that do well; with falling $/rising inflation write" and a new poster, Simon, who disagree with Mr. Bolin's viewpoints and among other thing. I quote his reply

Simon
January 13 Flag
I fundamentally disagree with a lot of Charles's viewpoints (for example he believes the economy is in the "latter stages of an expansion" whereas I think the exact opposite is true) but his articles are some of the finest on the web and I always read them. As Catch said - remain curious about life. Thank you Charles.

There were few more unpleasant exchanges between Simon and several experienced MFO posters here. He promptly disappeared from this board. Question is who is rational or irrational if his perspective is on? I ran across Charles Bolin articles awhile back in Seeking Alpha and I found his articles are well articulated and supported with data. Mr. Bolin also contributes to our monthly Commentary. I will repost my earlier posting to @Charles on Escape Plan and it listed several very informative articles from Charles Bolin (Seeking Alpha) on risk and current market condition.
https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/123803/#Comment_123803
Several low risk portfolio models were posted in his latest article in Seeking Alpha, the loss was modest, -11% as of March 21st which is excellent in light of what is happening today with S&P500 loss at >30%.

Charles noted:

Our friend Junkster always touted the importance of having predefined "exit" criteria. He was/is a day trader so he watches for instabilities typically in price movements of what he calls "tight channel" funds. If he sees them, he exits the trade.

For me, the most important word above is, "see"; in regard to its meaning below.
@Junkster offered pieces now and then, of what he could "see". He didn't make such a notation to impel or compel any one investor to take a particular action within their own portfolio. But for me, his observation(s); based upon his credibility with me, would be enough to cause me to be more curious as to a given circumstance.
To see: discern or deduce mentally after reflection or from information; understand.
We all "see" differently. I noted on March 11 what I could see relative to our portfolio:

>>>>> From a long ago song lyric: "Nowhere to run to, nowhere to hide."
All of the below government bill through bond types are down in pricing.
Our 72% bond/28% equity portfolio has no support from any area as of 12:30 EST.
Has this happened before in modern times??? Where the correlation between UST issues and equity markets have little meaning to one another.
ADD: Is the U.S. Treasury playing in the background to support yields???
--- SHY = (1-3 yr bills)
--- IEI = (3-7 yr notes)
--- IEF = (7-10 yr notes)
--- TLT = (20+ Yr UST Bond
--- EDV = (Vanguard extended duration gov't)
--- ZROZ = (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds) >>>>
This was my observation then, from my years of watching and learning, I could "see" that something was broken to hell in the AAA Treasury issues. Was this actionable information for others? I don't know, as this was only my observation.
One's escape plan is personal to the point of what was "seen", to find a portfolio that has arrived to where it is now, and what one "see's" now, relative to the composition of the portfolio going forward.
As to an escape plan for this house. Barring a fully worthless portfolio, which would suggest a full collapse of the global financial structure, for any number of reasons; we will remain with a 75% bond/25% equity portfolio at this time. We're fully invested, and can not invest in other areas without a sale of some other area.
Hoping this is understandable for most.
NOTE: more could be added, but other priorities exist for the moment.
Take care of you and yours,
Catch

Hi Sirs...
Maybe too late to get out now. Old_skeet snd catch22 post good investing monthly commentary/strategies. Maybe others posted good guides to follow if retired /closed to retirement. I am so glad following many others advise and place mom retired portfolio into conservative last year, 35/65. She lost very little past few months. I got out after Ted got out in ~ 2019.
I think we will see seesaw patterns next 4-6 weeks /much volatility until everything open up again/slow recovery. Not everything is working currently even CDs so low yields. You can argue stocks are getting cheaper now and these maybe good vehicles to buy moving forward. Corp Bonds not doing well because companies have no revenues going forward and may not be able to pay their creditors.
If you feel unease perhaps consider place at least 40-60% of portfolio divided in incomes based products [corp bonds/munis/US Tbonds]. Rest of portfolio divided evenly in cash and stocks. You may not loose much on downs days but may not go up if indeed recovery is on the way. Once you see there us indeed recovery 3 -6 months from today perhaps start slowly buy more equities by then.
Stocks /market maybe lower 4-5 weeks from today, but could be much higher 4-5 years from today
Maybe another easier lazy approaches maybe redistribute bulk of your portfolio into Tdf 2015 and cash. let it ride by itself, not much worries.
If you have schwab or fidelity, maybe reasonable to visit their cpa/investment advisors then possibly make up/draw up new escape plans after
On other thought, maybe a great buyer market imho if you have 15 yrs left.

Our friend Junkster always touted the importance of having predefined "exit" criteria. He was/is a day trader so he watches for instabilities typically in price movements of what he calls "tight channel" funds. If he sees them, he exits the trade.
Others like Meb Faber practice trend following ... when price drops below say the 10-mo running average, they exit their position, either to cash or something (thought) safer.
So curious if any on the board practice, in disciplined fashion, such techniques?
And, perhaps even more curious of whether buy-and-hold investors, especially retired ones, EVER think of exiting. Or, is it always just about re balancing?

@Anna - I can neither confirm or deny this snippet from Barrons:
"Pg 35: Many companies have cut or suspended dividends [MAR, F, JWN, BA] to conserve cash in anticipation of revenue and cash flow declines. But some financials, healthcare [CVS] and techs [INTC, TXN] may continue with their dividends – they may cut on buybacks and/or capex instead. [Companies that get bailout funds under CARES Act would have to suspend dividends and buybacks]."

"In this article I discuss dividend cuts or suspensions resulting from the coronavirus and oil price wars. Currently I count 49 total companies that have cut the dividend since the end of February to March 27,2020. Please see the list at the bottom of the article. Most of the companies are in the travel, leisure, hospitality, restaurant, REITs, or energy sectors. The two most prominent dividend cuts to date are Occidental Petroleum (OXY) and Boeing (BA)."
by Dividend Power
In a related vein there is also this found snippet which I can neither confirm or deny from the latest issue of Barrons:
"Pg 35: Many companies have cut or suspended dividends [MAR, F, JWN, BA] to conserve cash in anticipation of revenue and cash flow declines. But some financials, healthcare [CVS] and techs [INTC, TXN] may continue with their dividends – they may cut on buybacks and/or capex instead. [Companies that get bailout funds under CARES Act would have to suspend dividends and buybacks]."

MM, nobody on earth understood this particular risk, almost everything diving in unison so extremely quickly
don't feel bad about that
sure, time to judge fund treatment and comms, not just performance
but a lot of people of middling wealth, not wildly rich, are down hundreds and hundreds of thou of dollars, with maybe more to come, to serious budget-altering effects at best
since my spending is your income and vice-versa, curtailing spending severely always feels bad, among other things
I think I will be modulating slightly more to my CAPE + BND in some proportions or other presently, over time; bah to RE (maybe)