Hi Guys,
Bee, thank you for the invite to further endorse this site and its investment tools.
As you know, I'm a persistent advocate for using Mmonte Carlo analyses to help when making investment decisions. That's especially true when making the crucial retirement call. Portfolio Visualizer has an excellent Monte Carlo simulator that I have referenced many times in past submittals. It deserves a repeat, so here it is:
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/monte-carlo-simulation
Please access this fine tool. It is easy to use and use and use. Test what-if scenarios in seconds. Change your timescale, your drawdown rate, your portfolio, your various estimates of potential future returns with the click of a button. The only limitation is your inventiveness and your imagination.
I have used this tool for countless financial decisions. In an uncertain world, Monte Carlo analyses is the right tool. And Portfolio Visualizer is the right place to do that analyses. It is well worth your inspection time.
Best Wishes

Hank,Sometimes I just want to read about mutual funds. Maybe a new idea or fund. Nearing retirement so at least with some of the money looking to hit homeruns. That is why I bought FARNX which has quickly got me 8%. Don't like that so many post of late have become political and get off topic quickly.

Try this:
https://assetbuilder.com/knowledge-center/articles/when-a-401(k)-might-not-make-sense
"The authors assumed a 35-year time horizon for a young employee. ..."
That's quite an assumption - that someone is going to leave high money in a high cost 401(k) plan for 35 years. It assumes that the person is going to stay with the same employer for 35 years (otherwise the money could be moved to a new 401(k) or an IRA upon separation of service). It assumes the plan does not allow in-service distributions at age 59.5 (otherwise that longterm employee would still be able to move money out before retirement). And it assumes no matching.
The better advice IMHO is to recognize that most jobs don't last decades, put money into the plan, and move it out as soon as you can. There is significant value in getting money tax-sheltered, and a few years of higher costs are usually not enough to completely eliminate that value.

Many of AF's retirement dated funds are M* (5*) funds with ER close to (.7).

This is the best thing that's happened to retirement accounts and its owners. Imagine people everywhere day trading ETFs. Their already disastrous investment results would become worse.
Any libertarians out here who want the "freedom" to do this in their 401ks?

FYI: ETFs comprised 0.02% of 401(k) assets.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/retirement-accounts-a-holy-grail-that-remain-out-of-reach-for-etfs-2017-02-06/print

@Old Skeet said, "use to own WASAX (Ivy Asset Strategy) years back when it was nimble enough to reposition from time-to-time towards the faster moving market currents"
@briboe69 WASAX had $35 billion in assets a few years ago, and now is down to $5 billion - wow! There is nothing a manager can do when the outflows are that large.
@kevindow had a good thumb nail on WASAX's former manager's new fund in this post from last week
@TSP_Transfer,
Thanks for the tip on CCAPX, which is an interesting global allocation fund, but really not in the ALT space. The CCAPX manager, Ryan Caldwell, served as the assistant manager of WASAX when it was on top of the world (1/2007 - 6/2014), and during his tenure, this fund beat the heavy hitters like MALOX and SGIIX, and even the wannabes, like WGRNX.
Test trading for CCAPX indicates that it is not available at Scottrade and Wellstrade, but it is available in TDAmeritrade and Fidelity retirement accounts with no minimum + TF. At an actual 1.15% expense ratio, this fund has very reasonable expenses.
Kevin
https://www.chironfunds.com
https://www.chironfunds.com/Data/Sites/3/media/docs/Chiron_FactSheet.pdfhttps
https://www.chironfunds.com/Data/Sites/3/media/docs/Chiron_Portfolio_Composition.pdf
http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/84694/#Comment_84694

Sigh.
"He underperformed in his final year."
Neff underperformed over the period from 1984 to 1995 - the final eleven years of his career, as I documented.
"Speculating, that [final year] might well have been a major influence on why he retired."
Bzzt. "Effective at year-end 1995, Mr. Neff will retire and Mr. Freeman will assume the position of portfolio manager of the Fund." That was from the Feb 23, 1995 prospectus for which I provided a link. Neff's retirement was planned well in advance.
Now, let me point out something I didn't write. In the thread on greatest investors, I did not say that Neff didn't belong in that list. You might think, "well, I wasn't critical about anyone mentioned, so that doesn't prove anything." Take a look, I specifically and in some detail criticized including Icahn.
So you didn't have to go digging up quotes to show me what a wonderful overall record Neff had. But ... the fact that he had a great couple of decades doesn't offer any insight into finding or sticking with active managers.
You wrote that you walked away. Why? How long did you wait before bailing? Was it bailing or something else? By emphasizing his career record and ignoring his last several years (calling out only his final year), are you tacitly suggesting that people should have ridden him all the way through those lackluster years? Even though they would be giving up some of the earlier excess gain?

"Vanguard actively managed funds have been and are managed by some famous investors. For a very long period legendary John Neff directed the Windsor Fund to outperform his benchmark until his recent retirement. He's just one of several examples."
Actually not so much. He did have an outstanding two decade record. Unfortunately, he managed Windor for another 11 years, "recently" retiring at the end of 1995.
Over the first ten of those years 1984-1994 (using fiscal years ending Oct. 31), he underperformed the fund's benchmark, the S&P 500, a bit, 14.5% vs. 14.8%. His final year was a relative (albeit not absolute) disaster, with a total return of 17.8% vs. the S&P's 26.4% (for fiscal 1995).
Those of us who became aware of him at the end of his career wondered what all the hubbub was about.
1995 Prospectus (for ten year records, 1984-1994)
1994 Prospectus (for 1995 record, and 10 year record 1985-1995)

Hi Guys,
There has been much discussion of Vanguard Index products (the Bogle Model) on this thread. The exclusionary emphasis has been on Vanguard Index funds. That's not too surprising given that Vanguard emphasis that segment of their business.
But Vanguard actively managed funds are worthy of portfolio consideration. There are a ton of them, and many have superior performance records. Personally, I own a healthy mix of both their Index and actively managed funds.
Vanguard actively managed funds have been and are managed by some famous investors. For a very long period legendary John Neff directed the Windsor Fund to outperform his benchmark until his recent retirement. He's just one of several examples.
A fellow named Dan Weiner has been monitoring Vanguard for quite some time and publishes a rather expensive newsletter. He also shows up at Money Show events. Here is a Link to an interview with him that was conducted a couple of years ago that might be of MFO interest:
http://www.kiplinger.com/article/investing/T041-C009-S002-dan-wiener-likes-vanguard-actively-managed-funds.html
I certainly follow one rule that he identifies in the referenced interview: " I’m not a buyer of mutual funds. I’m a buyer of managers ". So am I. For an actively managed fund, the name of the game is insightful and skillful managers.
Thank you all for your participation.
Best Wishes.

Yeah - if you can get a "high number" R-class (ie, R-5 or R-6) w/the AFs you are in good shape. I've got R-6 shares (no load, no 12b1, VERY low ER) in my 403(b) and am quite pleased.

I'm investing in the Balanced fund (class R shares) in my 401k account with my current employer. The fee is pretty low for that share class. We only had American Fund choices and I chose this fund as being relatively reliable.
This is a job to tide me over until actual retirement in five years or so and I'm just putting in the 6% to get the match. It is all going into this fund and I've been happy with it so far.

I'm investing in the Balanced fund (class R shares) in my 401k account with my current employer. The fee is pretty low for that share class. We only had American Fund choices and I chose this fund as being relatively reliable.
This is a job to tide me over until actual retirement in five years or so and I'm just putting in the 6% to get the match. It is all going into this fund and I've been happy with it so far.

SDOG and SCHD = A SWAN for My Retirement Income Portfolio

Dear friends,
There's always a balance between broader issues and discussions of individual funds. This month tilted in the direction of funds.
AMG Chicago Equity Partners Balanced (MBEAX): a singularly low-profile, low-risk balanced fund. US equities, including a larger serving of small and mid-caps than most, plus high-grade bonds. For any comparison period that takes down cycles into account, it has gold performance. For comparison periods that look narrowly at periods marked by rising markets (the easy-to-find 1/3/5 year stuff), it's a notch down. Even in those markets, it's risk-adjusted returns are better than its peers or Vanguard STAR.
T. Rowe Price Global Multi-Sector Bond (PRSNX): formerly TRP Strategic Income, we profiled it in 2011 and I own it in my retirement portfolio. It's the first in a series of profiles labeled "left behind by Morningstar." As Morningstar focuses more resources on passive products and big funds, bunches of funds that it once recognized by meritorious get dropped from coverage. In 2011, their final word was "promising but it needs a longer track record before we upgrade it." Five years later and it's a consistently top 10 fund but still no notice.
GQG Partners Emerging Equities (GQGPX): An Elevator Talk with Rajiv Jain about his new fund.
Symons Concentrated Small Cap Value, Institutional: an interesting possibility. It'll be by far the most concentrated small cap fund out there and is based on a successful small SMA cluster. $1 million minimum, so it's mostly FYI.
Osterweis Emerging Growth (OSTGX): just wanted to share word of Jim Callinan's return with the rest of the world.
My essay mostly focused on the wisdom of keeping your head when all those about you are losing theirs. Ed addresses the ugly reality that a number of big name firms are likely in their last decade. And Bob C begins walking folks through the decisions to be made in the transition to retirement.
For what interest all that holds, and with thanks for your patience and good spirits,
David

http://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/retirement/trump-seen-ready-to-block-dol-fiduciary-rule/
Actual order to DOL is for new study, not outright delay.

Hi Hank,
I suspect that sleeping well at night is tightly coupled to our confidence level in our investments. That confidence level must be correlated with our investment knowledge; the more, the better.
In my earlier post, I focused on the tradeoffs between major equity to bond portfolio asset allocations. I suggest we remain focused on that tradeoff because it is critical to a comfortable retirement with its direct impact on survivable portfolio withdrawal rates. The discussion of sleep is a distraction.
Bond elements reduce portfolo average annual returns, but they also reduce portfolio volatility (standard deviation). These are competing impacts that make an allocation decision more difficult. Also the dynamic correlation coefficient between stocks and bonds changes over time which further confuses the picture.
Much good work has been done that examines these tradeoffs. Here is a Link to one such study:
http://qvmgroup.com/invest/2013/07/30/historical-returns-for-us-stock_bond-allocations-and-choosing-your-allocation/
It's a rather long piece, but the subject is complex with no one size fits all solution. Enjoy the reference!
Best Wishes.

@davidrmoran,
I reread the Waggoner Article, and I think that one must dig a little deeper than he does.
Ferri's Take
Israelsen's Quantitative View (1970-2006)
Israelsen's Analysis 2001-2015

Forbes Article on the Israelsen Model
From the Israelsen data, I'm inclined to believe that it is beneficial to own foreign developed and EM equities.
Kevin

@TSP_Transfer,
Thanks for the tip on CCAPX, which is an interesting global allocation fund, but really not in the ALT space. The CCAPX manager, Ryan Caldwell, served as the assistant manager of WASAX when it was on top of the world (1/2007 - 6/2014), and during his tenure, this fund beat the heavy hitters like MALOX and SGIIX, and even the wannabes, like WGRNX.
Test trading for CCAPX indicates that it is not available at Scottrade and Wellstrade, but it is available in TDAmeritrade and Fidelity retirement accounts with no minimum + TF. At an actual 1.15% expense ratio, this fund has very reasonable expenses.
Kevin

According to my test trade at TDAmeritrade, DSEUX has a $5K not a $100K minimum for retirement accounts with a TF.
Kevin

@davidrmoran,
According to a test trade I just made in my TDAmeritrade retirement account, DSEUX is available for a $5K minimum with a TF. Since I am grandfathered into the ThinkorSwim commission structure, the TF is only $15 each for buys and sells. For some reason, DLEUX is not available at TDAmeritrade.
Kevin