Impressive indeed, I just did the same graph. The question for me is whether to add to DSENX or just buy CAPE instead (which I can get at Schwab.) Sticking to my keep-it-simple philosophy, CAPE might make more sense.

I just looked at CAPE since its inception, 7.5y ago, 10/12, and noted its >10% superiority to SPY. (Even moreso compared w/ the div and low-vol etfs listed above.)
So if you are a long-termer (at 73- I have only so many terms left) I believe you will be hard-pressed to find something reliably outperforming SPY over time. Would like to know examples.
Did not look to MFOP to screen for LCG like the named winners from TRP and Fido, also Polix and Akre, yet I am sure they have outperformed CAPE. But who else?
Given AGG's relative outperformance recently, am thinking it plus CAPE in some proportion could be my new retirement grail.

Thank you, all, for the kindness and warmth.
Yes, the last year and two the DL bond sauce has not helped, has done the opposite, slightly. (It was DavidS who brought it to our attention, as so often!) But it is the severity of this recent bond plunge which has made DSE_X finally underperform CAPE for its lifetime.
I myself am holding and think (hope) y'all are being short-termers, but I understand the sentiments. I might have bought or switched to CAPE instead at some point if it were available at ML.
It is not easy to see in this storm significant value added by anyone, Hogan-Putnam, Yackts, Akre; I observe that PRBLX is back to being a notable leader. But good ol' SPY has outperformed too, so to speak, depending on what time slice you choose. Hang in.

I thought it might help to gather some investing resources to share. If you have a few... share.
Here is a nice way to track the S&P 500 PE Ratio (along with other charts S&P 500 CAPE, 10 yr treasury, & others):
https://multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio
Global Stock Valuations:
https://starcapital.de/en/research/stock-market-valuation/

@davidrmoran, I'm sorry to hear you lost your college friend. That certainly brings this pandemic into perspective on a personal level. We've lost some money. Your friends family lost much more.
I bought into DSENX shortly after you brought it to the attention of this board, so I had plenty of good years with it too. I understand the CAPE side of it and trusted the secret sauce bond side would help during a bear. Obviously wrong. I feel better now after moving that money going forward with AKREX and YAFFX.

Very sorry to hear of your friend's death, David. Yes, this virus is really hitting home.
I hadn't realized until one of your earlier comments how DSENX has consistently underperformed CAPE. Yeah, I own DSENX too, not a big part of my portfolio, but big enough to hurt.
Gundlach's a smart guy. If he can't add value on the bond side... maybe it's time to just buy index funds and call it a day.

The old $10k-growth quote graphing from M*, which is not up to date tonight yet for many of these, shows that since 2/21 CAPE is right in the middle of, well, not its peers, but other ones I follow and think 'I should have done instead' ... NOBL, OUSA, DVY, VIG, SCHD, SPLV.
So there seems no particular or new reason to jettison CAPE, whether you understand it or not.
Certainly the DSE_X bond sauce has failed to add value for some time now.
It is remarkable to see (for this short, monthlong span) DVY do a full ~9% worse than VIG and OUSA, since the first two are so widely touted.
Of course it is mindblowing to see everything down like 26% in ~31 days, even after today's pop.
Wait'll this new state gets really serious. I just had a college friend die last night of covid19, healthy, 72, took ill 2w ago, on ventilator 12 days in a highly regarded NJ hospital, best care, seemed to be rallying, cardiac arrest in the middle of the night. One of the 780 US deaths thus far. His family and friends are stupefied and (of course) worse. Alan Finder helped me unpack my cartons of LPs and whiskey 55y ago into our freshman dorm.
Wait till we are discussing all this in a month or three or six, following the "president"'s Easter goal and back-to-work order.

Anybody get an accurate price in DSENX/DSEEX today? My sources show -3.99%, but CAPE gained 7.79%, a real disconnect. Seem to remember that DL funds can be late reporting MF NAVs.

yes, you can always graph it against CAPE and what the bond sauce has provided --- nothing for some time, to the contrary
brutal, brutal time, even if, as everyone points out now, you went heavily into bond funds of all types for safety and near-future cashflow needs

This post has been edited to correct my description of the fund's implementation of its strategy. I should have gone directly to DoubleLine to begin with. My apologies for being lazy.
It is a value play, if I understand the methodology correctly. M* calls it a blend. Lipper calls it a value. Value has been hit pretty hard lately.
I don't really think of it as a quant fund. More of a sector rotation strategy. From their description:

Each month the index ranks 11 sectors based on a modified CAPE® ratio and 12-month price momentum factor. The index selects five US sectors with the lowest modified CAPE® ratio or undervalued based on the ratio. The sector with the least favorable 12-month price momentum is rejected and the Index is comprised of the remaining four sectors for the given month.

Their holdings as of February 29:

Communication Services 25.77%
Industrials 24.67%
Materials 24.87%
Technology 25.01%
Total 100.00%

I added to the position in my IRA on the 18th when Treasuries were going haywire. But I'm pretty much fully invested there now. I would add it to my taxable if I could. I really like reinvesting those monthly dividends.

Hi Mark,
I'm sure you know all this already, but... It uses derivatives to get exposure to both the stock and bond market with the same money, so it's leveraged, in a way -- and when both the stock and bond markets get hit, it will take a hit on both sides and fall more than just the stock market alone.
So it's poor performance now makes sense to me. We're paying the price today for the benefits this leverage gave us (I own it) before.
What I don't know is what to think of it going forward. Presumably Grundlach will add value over the long term to the bond side, as he's always done, but I wonder if its super-simple quant model (rebalancing based on CAPE) will make any sense in the future?
I think a lot of quant models will need to be completely rejiggered, as historical patterns will matter less in a coronavirus world.
But like you, I'd love to hear more from others on this fund.

In this stressful time, which cries for serious and thoughtful information exchange, why MFO is being cluttered with garbage like this is completely beyond my comprehension. It echoes the performance from the very top of the present administration: let's keep on chattering about how everything will be just fine very soon, and keep up all of the ridiculous happy-talk. Unbelievable.

I've mentioned in the past I don't hang out on MFO that much any more because I used to come here to escape the nonsense. Now, all nonsense is a link to a post on this board. Matter of fact, the more links one posts, the more that person seems to be lauded. It should be about quality not quantity. Unfortunately, everything is a matter of opinion, so WTF do i know?

Here's the Fed PR release:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/files/monetary20200318a1.pdf
I'm surely in the minority here, but my reaction is: how dare they!
The federal government bailed out MMFs a decade ago and swore it would never do it again. Investors were warned that they were taking risks by investing in prime MMFs. Those who did use these MMFs were told clearly and pointedly that they risked redemption fees and/or delays on withdrawals that could be imposed to preserve the value of their funds.
At the very least, require the funds to pull these triggers before getting more nonrecourse loans, i.e. more guarantees from the Treasury.
Now we're being told that these Obama administration regulations were all a lie, all for show? Meanwhile, Congressional Republicans have worked repeatedly to get rid of Dodd-Frank.
Note that this lending program applies only to prime MMFs. That is, the ones that the new MMF regulations were supposed to safeguard.

As of this morning, the Shiller CAPE was 24.46 and falling.
Good news: that's probably a five-year low.
Bad news: that 50 year average looks to be 15-20.
So "the market" isn't classically cheap.
Sensible grown-ups, El-Erian most recently, are anticipating a 30% drop in the market. That's good news in a way, since we're already down by the low- to mid-20s.
Bought some cabarnet sauvignon (aged in bourbon barrels, good reviews, $10) at Aldi's yesterday, which represents my big purchases this week. Other than that, I continue to doggedly add my monthly pittance to RiverPark, Grandeur Peak, Seafarer and T. Rowe Price Spectrum Income. Don't see a lot of reason to change, though I know that my allocation is underweight US stocks so I'll need to buy some more BIAWX sooner than later.
For what that's worth,
David

@msf - I don't argue with the paper. What I will say is that if the fund is managed that way then the shareholders should know that upfront. Although in real life it's probably unavoidable to escape political biases I'd prefer not to see them as a factor in investment decisions.

https://www.morningstar.com/articles/970581/did-mutual-funds-perform-as-expected-during-the-mini-crash
Did Mutual Funds Perform as Expected During the Mini-Crash?
For the most part, yes.
John Rekenthaler
Mar 6, 2020
Open Questions
It’s no secret that the S&P 500 dropped 11% last week. Less discussed has been how that downturn affected funds. Did any stock fund categories escape the damage? Did bond funds and alternative funds protect against the carnage? Should 401(k) investors be pleased with their target-date funds? Finally, how did active equity funds fare?

Structurally they're all pretty much the same but I have found PTY to be the most exposed to volatility in it's pricing. I use selloffs to buy more in bulk but generally just reinvest the distributions. You might find further information in the linked M* community discussion along with a lot of flotsam as well. I used to have a table laying out the various differences but I can't locate it at the moment. I'll post it if I find it.
PTY v. Other PIMCO CEF's
Edit: You can also dig out differences by examining the 'Portfolio' of each fund on M* or similar. Not the 'Portfolio Holdings' - hardly anyone can figure that out besides probably capecod but rather just the 'Portfolio'.

I did just that @msf in purchasing BIAWX and I also use the $5 automatic buy program but that doesn't allow me to escape the $49.95 fee when considering or attempting to take advantage of opportunistic "buys" on massive down days as we've been experiencing lately. I can't manage $20K on each purchase. Such is life. However that also allows the fund company to somewhat control the money flow into or out of the fund which may be beneficial.

Welcome to the “It’s not the Super Bowl without the Steelers, but it’s great that Troy was recognized as a first-ballot Hall of Famer” edition of the Mutual Fund Observer which is posted at https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/issue/february-2020/. Highlights include:

• my publisher's letter takes a swipe at robo-writers, and reports on an unusually fervent hug between Rob Arnott and Cliff Asness. Good news: the long-time sparring partners have agreed on something important. Bad news: it’s that 10-year returns look uniformly low. Both point you toward the long-unloved emerging markets, while Mr. Asness offers a version of “it’s time to be a bit grown-up” financial advice.


• a long-overdue profile of FAM Dividend Focus (FAMEX). Over the past year, we’ve done a series of data-driven articles that focused on equity-oriented funds that thrive when all others falter, but that still make decent returns. FAM Dividend Focus has earned its way into more of those articles than any other single fund. It was time to say just a bit more about it.


• Edward Studzinski has been meeting with, and sparring with, some very fine independent fund managers. He shares what he's learned about researching management strategies, the changing landscape, hubris and managers' insistence on tripping themselves up.


• “Getting More Bang” explores high capture / low downside capture equity funds. Capture ratio is a sort of “bang for the buck” measure: funds with a capture ratio over 1.0 are delivering more of the market’s upside than its downside. By picking a downside target (“I’m willing to take 90% of the market’s losses, but no more”), you can use the capture ratio to identify the funds which offer the greatest return for the risk you endure. It’s a simple and intuitive way to create your due diligence list. We offer the top 20 domestic and international funds.


• Lynn Bolin continues to explore the six rules of successful investing. This month: knowing your investment environment.


• Charles Boccadoro has responded to user requests for more fund portfolio data at MFO Premium; traditionally, we were analytics-rich but portfolio-poor. As he explains, that changed on February 1st.


• on a bright note, several first-rate funds have reopened to new investors, including RiverPark Short-term High Yield (RPHYX). RPHYX seems forever maligned because its portfolio doesn’t fit neatly in any box. RPHYX had the distinction of having the highest Sharpe ratio of any fund in existence for years. It's a low volatility / low-risk fund that's best used as a strategic cash fund. (I've owned it for a long time and use it in lieu of a savings account.) It has averaged 3.1% annually with a maximum drawdown, lifetime, of 0.6%. David Sherman's current reading of the market, bond as much as equity, is that it's time to maximize caution and his funds are positioned commensurately.

Liquidations, 74 manager changes, a dozen new names, two retirements and more …
The long scroll version is available at https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2020/2/.
As ever,
David

4% after the year we just had. Sheesh. I am totally out of indexes in my IRA. Well. I did invest some of the proceeds in the Doubline Shiller/Cape fund DSEEX. So I guess I'm not totally out. But I'm not nearly as FAANGed as I used to be.
Vanguard's indexes in the small and mid space are hard to beat in taxable accounts.