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You can see this as an extreme capital preservation strategy where the drawdown is at or close to zero under any scenario. They are definitely not for the kind of capital growth needed by the 99% to make their retirement.
Ha! Love it!So why do these managers create retail mutual funds? Because they need the money to grow the asset base and their revenues and it is easier to raise money from mutual funds especially if it becomes popular. They all look at funds like PRPFX (easiest money ever made by fund managers) and salivate and wonder why they are working so hard for just a few million.
Thanks for the article Ted.Note in the article's pie chart which asset allocation from conservative to aggressive had the best returns over time.
Regards,
Ted
Do you seriously need a chart to realize that? :-)Note in the article's pie chart which asset allocation from conservative to aggressive had the best returns over time.
Now it is time to do damage control of the destruction of your own evidence from your opponent's arguments you cannot refute with a counter argument. This requires careful wording because it may require you to contradict your own introduction of the evidence based on which you made rather strong and definitive statements. The easiest is to use logical fallacies to create wiggle room. For example, if your evidence was shown to be invalid or flawed, then use the logical fallacy of the type "all evidence is incomplete and empirical and capture some reality, therefore mine does too". Jury will not see the well known sweeping generalization fallacy.
No standalone active-passive fund management study is conclusive by itself. The issue has far too many dimensions to permit a single, all-inclusive analysis to address and to resolve all the multitude of issues. Since no universal investment Ironclad laws exist, all studies are empirical in nature. All models are simplifications of reality; hopefully they still capture the governing elements of that reality. They are all imperfect.
You can also use the fallacy of the type "different evidence validates different truths, thus this evidence as part of that group validates some truths". Jury will not recognize the false premise. Only valid and untainted evidence validate truths not all.
Selecting bias free data and study timeframes will always influence findings. That’s specifically why numerous studies are needed and will continue to yield more realistic insights. The MIG study fits into that grouping.
Now, it is time to build credibility of your own evidence. Asserting objectivity of the evidence gatherers is critical. Easiest to claim that they reported something they did not expect themselves for this. What better way to establish credibility? Jury will not know that this is well known in prior studies and claims have always been about after costs and fees. The thing that was new was including data from defunct funds.
I believe the MIG team did an honest job. I even think they were somewhat surprised by their findings. I’m nudged in that direction by the way they presented their findings. Their very first table shows that 4 of their 6 major fund categories delivered positive Alpha before costs. But nobody invests without costs.
Now repeat the already available prior studies' claims ignoring the very criticusm of this study. Even when your opponent has stipulated the valid conclusion of this study, that the average data over all funds is meaningful only if you choose a fund randomly over all existing and defunct funds, the main objection to the structure of the study.
In the same paragraph, MIG adjusts for costs and concludes that : “When comparing the median outperformance to the median fee for each asset class, the gross outperformance of the median manager has not justified the historical median fee. In other words, it seems that in the asset classes where active managers have added value, the median level of fees negated any advantage.”
With that, it is time to go on the attack again. By this time, the jury has tuned out or asleep to notice misquoting or mischaracterizing the opponent. For example, you can take a statement that talks about both before and after in the same sentence as a disingenuous attempt to emphasize the former. Strong words like disingenuous wake up the jury and it will stick.
Cman emphasized the “no cost” result to the detriment of the overarching negative Alpha after fees conclusion. That’s a little disingenuous, especially if you proclaim to have no ponies in the race.
Now attempt to cast the opponent as destroying the credibility with strong words (while you smirk at the irony) rather than pointing out the flaws and limitations of the study to model reality. If the jury is still listening at this point, they will think it true because you have repeated often enough.
Yet Cman elects to destroy the credibility of MIG’s efforts with ad hominem attack words like Junk Science and GIGO. All research is subject to errors ranging from incomplete data collection to poor practices to flawed data interpretations. But an honest attack requires full documentation, not merely shaky comprehensive assertions.
You can also use logical fallacies to establish the credibility of your evidence. One may create a defective report without incentives. It may not be defective at all for the audience it is targeted towards because it confirms a widely held view and there is a financial incentive for that purpose. But claiming ignorance of any such thing and asserting it must be valid because otherwise it would damage the firm is a fallacy of false choice since it assumes they are either necessarily aware of it or that if they were aware of the shortcomings they would necessarily care for the purpose it is used.
It is not at all clear why MIG would have incentives to prepare a defective report since their reputation is at risk. They do have much skin in the game.
The fallacy of argument from authority is always a useful tool to have in one's pocket because it allows you to throw in a lot of irrelevant data. One can be all that and still write a flawed or a falsely concluded article but it always impresses the jury to throw credentials.
The MIG team that Cman so firmly criticized has over 600 billion dollars under management, has been in the consulting business since 1978, and has recently been awarded a competitively bid contract from the California State Teachers’ Retirement System (CalSTRS). I’m sure they have been on the wrong side of some investment advice, but so has everyone else. As a minimum, MIG has demonstrated staying power.
SS is included in total assets when doing a cash flow retirement plan.One of the posters here considers SS as part or all of their fixed income piece of the pie. That's not a bad idea, especially with bonds as they are at the present. Something to consider.
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