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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • A Serious Emerging-Markets Selloff Is Underway
    Reply to @BobC: But it's still tricky though as the EM recommendations seem to rotate.
    T. Rowe Price EM Fund (PRMSX) has been highly recommended the past 5-7+ years but yet it has just matched the EM index fund over the past 10 years. If we go back a bit further to the start of 2000 until today --- PRMSX has basically matched the EM index (and in actuality slightly underperformed it). This wasn't your average obscure EM fund - it was a well-recognized and highly recommended EM fund in numerous investing forums.
    Columbia Emerging Markets fund was once recommended by some whereby the fund was backed by a smart manager. Out of that we got 10-year performance matching that of the index dead-on.
    Acadian Emerging Markets fund several years ago was appealing quite some time ago and it actually had to close for a bit because it got too hot with new money. This fund has shown some decent long-term outperformance and that looks great when we're looking at 10+ year perf numbers but the reality is this --- who stuck around to hold this fund after exhibiting extreme volatility? It showed more volality in the late 90's and in 2008 than the EM index.
    Plus it's gotten more complicated as now you have various flavors of EM "indexes" such as the Dividend weighted ones, Low-Volatility and Value weighted ones. I also like TLTE - which is basically a value + small overweight/leaning index.
    So an investor who may have liked PRMX or the Columbia or the Acadian or heaven's forbid Fidelity EM fund in the past may have already rotated to something else where the grass is greener --- As an example - the Virtus EM Fund lately over the past couple of years has started to attract attention.
  • In Emerging Markets, A Time To Be Especially Choosy
    Reply to @Sven: Yeah but I would say that most that are doing better than the EM index YTD are only doing a tiny bit better so far this year. For example - an EM fund that a lot of investors have liked over the past 5+ years has been the T. Rowe Price EM Fund (PRMSX). PRMSX is doing better than the Vanguard EM Index by approx. 3/4 of a percent YTD --- that's what I call barely doing any better.
    Another highly rated EM fund is the Virtus EM Fund but this one is doing worse than the EM index YTD.
    And then some of these EM funds are massively way bigger (10-20x) than they were 10 years ago and so they may not be as nimble as before.
    Having said that I am invested in the Seafarer fund.
  • Emerging-Market Stocks Drop To 7-Week Low
    Reply to @hank: Uhhh ... no.
    PRMSX made 85% in 2009 after losing 61% in 2008. The nature of asymmetrical returns is such that (down 61) plus (up 85) equals (down 27). That is, a $10,000 investment made at the start of 2008 and sold at the end of 2009 would be worth $7300.
    David
  • Emerging-Market Stocks Drop To 7-Week Low
    Reply to @scott: Yikes - Getting too easy to download fund Prospectuses. PRMSX (EM Stock) lost 61% in 2008. (Thanks to David for the correction). OK - that was the Granddaddy of all market debacles and not to be taken as typical. Wish they went back more than 10 years because distinctly recall Sir John Templeton recommending EM equities to individual investors after they had fallen 50% in late 90s. These are markets not for the timid. Thanks for the thoughts Scott.
  • Emerging-Market Stocks Drop To 7-Week Low
    These stories sometimes lead me to consider taking a speculative position in a fund with the idea of selling in a year or so after an easy profit. Just don't see that opportunity yet. Checking at Price, for example, I find these numbers. (1) PRMSX (EM Stock) YTD -14.21% & 1YR -4.15% ... (2) For PREMX (EM Bond) it shows YTD -9.5% & 1YR -4.37% ...(3) For PRELX (EM Bond Local Currency) the results are YTD -12.2% and 1YR -5.84%. Tough for those holding these funds. But if you've followed these markets a few decades you've observed multi-year drops of as much as 40-50% in both the currencies and equities. As a long term hold OK. But for a quick speculative play they don't appear very beaten up yet.
    Related issue - Read good story yesterday (either Reuters or NYT ) about the human toll the sharp depreciation in currencies in these countries is taking. Costs of food, fuel and other necessities have sky-rocketed for those poor people to point of near starvation for some. So, while we whine about our portfolio losses, keep in mind the human suffering this is all causing in these countries.
  • EM worth considering
    Yes, but ... to stay positive here ... there are many, many better options for EM equity exposure than this fellow's recommendation of PRMSX.
  • Retirement Portpolio - pls. provide your critique
    Thanks Tony!
    Portfolio spread across 4 accounts at both V'rd and TDA.
    If I sell VHGEX, I want to replace it with a value oriented fund at V'rd. This is at V'rd with no brokerage attached to it. My high conviction fund at V'rd is VDIGX but I already hold 10% in it. I am ok with VEIPX but if I buy it, I have to increase international elsewhere.
    PRSNX - I opened a thread about in the past (not sure here or at M*). It's sharpe ratio and alpha were on par with some of the much discussed multi-sector funds because it takes less risk and less return compared to them. If bonds are meant for diversification and act as ballast, is it not a good idea to hold such funds rather than a fund like LSBRX. Anyway, I will reevaluate it.
    MFCFX - Opened a thread here about mgr change. It is doing ok even after mgr change. I will give it some more time as Marsico team should be working with much more motivation to prove themselves again considering the recent setbacks. Good suggestion on replacements, will keep in mind.
    HSFNX - Long term mgr, very good track record. Timing worked well but should have bought in early 2009. This is not for long term, invested in it on gut feeling and did well. Have to find when to exit.
    PCRIX - You brought a very good point. I sold VIPSX to move to V'rd short term infla. fund but did not pay attention to this fund holding TIPS. Bought for long term and want to keep it at at 5%, either alone or in combo with a natural resource fund.
    AEMGX - when I started investing funds in 2005, there were few EM funds, the popular ones then were PRMSX, ODMAX,SSEMX, VEIEX, and Acadian. Options many more these days with o many new funds and ETFs. I held both PRMSX (growth) and SSEMX (blend) in the past before settling with AEMGX. It is a value fund in EM space and uses quant method to select stocks, and has a very good long term record. Very volatile and lost a lot in 2008 but my entry was good, right at the bottom in 3/2009. Actually tempted to go 100% stocks during various times in late 2008 and early 2009 based on my gut feeling and what Oildog (probably the best poster I came across at M* for his depth of knowledge and sage advice) was doing then, but did not and I regret that retrospectively.
    ARIVX - Invested recently, will give more time; will check other opions. I want to invest in ARTWX just for the fact that a new fund and good mgr works great, esp. In bull markets but I already have GPGOX, same space (global smallcap growth). Probably invest for a trade and sell it later but the problem is TDA has 6 month holding resrtiction
    Thanks again.
  • Retirement Portpolio - pls. provide your critique
    Reply to @Investor: Thanks for all good suggestions!
    VHGEX is at Vanguard, so I can replace it only with a Vanguard fund.
    PAUDX: I want to give it/him some more time. Generally, I am a patient investor and give at least 3 years to the fund/mgr. I understand his allocation issues that we always discuss here as well as M* forums but still want to give him some more time.
    PQIDX: Just a recent addition; At TDA, so can't replace it with VDIGX; Will give it a couple of years.
    PRSNX: Reason for your advice ?
    VHCOX: A recent addition; Can't replace it with AKREX as this is at Vanguard; Though both of them Growth funds (MCG/LCG), they quite different in their portfolio/philosophy; Primecap always believed in Tech and Healthcare and they still do.
    MCFCX: Good suggestion; Will investigate.
    HSFNX: Made good money on it; I think financials should do well with the interest rates nowhere to go but up. Correct me, if I am wrong.
    PSPFX/PCRIX: Invested just because Natural Resouces/Commodities are down and materials are down even more; Instead of investing in a material fund, I went for a diversified Natural resource/commodity funds.
    PONDX: Can you please provide reasons behind your suggestion?
    AEMGX: Good long term track record, though did pretty bad in 2008 down turn. For EM, I always considerd AEMGX, PRMSX and SSEMX and I held each of them in the past.
    Nowadays, you have lot of EM funds available but these are three prominent funds when I seriously started investing in fund 2005/06. Bought this fund at the bottom and it turned out to be a great investment for me; Want to keep in for sentimental reason; Insignificant allocation. This is one of the EM funds that has value bent.
    ARIVX: Let me investigate; I am looking for a small value fund here; or a small blend with value tilt; GPGOX is a growth fund in this space
    Thanks again for taking time to respond and good suggestions.
  • How Vanguard Amassed $2 Trillion
    Reply to @Hogan:
    Over the years I have found Vanguard to be a investor friendly house.
    Recently, however, the difference between my Vanguard holdings compared to my T. Rowe Price investments tells a diferent story...when VWO underperform PRMSX (with it's 1.27 ER) on a 1 year basis something is amiss.
    image
  • How Do T. Rowe Price Funds Stack Up ?
    Thanks Ted,
    Over the years I have migrated some investments to TRP. I have shares in the following funds:
    PRHSX...Health Science Fund up 35% this year due to exposure to biotech
    PRMSX...Up 13 % ytd, a less volatile Emerging Market fund
    RPSIX...Multisector bond fund...my cash alternative...up 8.7% ytd
    PRASX...LC EM fund...10 yr outperformance to catagory...up 16% ytd
    PRNHX...Small US Growth fund... up 19% YTD
    PRJPX...Japan Fund...up 7% ytd...trying to be patient with this one
    PRDMX...Mid Cap fund up 17 % ytd
    PRWCX...Nice steady Moderate allocation fund...top 5% of category...up 13% ytd
    PRMTX...Tech Communications fund...great fund...up 20% ytd
    Also a TRP account provides the benefit of utilizing some of M* premium features such as Instant X-ray through the TRP account portal. I have nothing but good thing to say about T. Rowe Price.
  • How far will funds/equity market travel; before; well, before profits are taken? LIP
    Reply to @fundalarm:
    Hi Fund,
    Probably too many... I just counted and I come up with 40 funds give or take.
    My choice of funds has a bit to do with where I have my accounts...T Rowe, Vanguard, an USAA. I chose to diversify across brokerage house as well as funds.
    I hold:
    PRHSX and VHT...Health Care
    VWO, PRMSX, MSMLX, WAEMX, PRASX,PRIDX and MAPIX...Emerging/Asian/International
    PRMTX, MATFX, VOX...Global Tech
    USAGX, VGPMX, PCRDX, VIS...Material, Precious Metals, Commodities
    REACX, CSRSX, and VNQ...Real Estate
    VDE, GASFX, PRNEX...Energy, Utilities
    PRNHX, PRDMX, PRIDX, HRVIX...Small/Mid Cap
    MFCFX, FAIRX, OAKIX, CAMAX...LC with a Focus?
    MJFOX, PRJPX...Japan
    USIBX, RPSIX, PONDX, TGBAX, PRPFX, USTEX, PRWCX...Conservative/ Moderate Allocation / Bonds
    When I run M* portfolio X-Ray I am about 1/3 bond, 1/3 Foreign Stock, 1/3 US Stock.
    50% is in my top 10 holdings.
    I suppose I could own...BND, VT and VTI and be done with it but, what fun...d is that?
    I feel more comfortable diversifying funds as well as fund houses.
  • How far will funds/equity market travel; before; well, before profits are taken? LIP
    Hi Catch,
    As I look back over my equity holdings I notice that high volatility hurt many of my equity funds from performing as well the overall market. Maybe its "catch" up time from these sectors. This has already happened with PM (USAGX, PCRDX) which had fallen back 30% most recently. Did I have the discipline to pile in back then? ...only a little.
    I would suggest "only a little" as a good approach. Take profits along the way but, "only a little". Buy into this momentum (artificially induced) but, "only a little". "Only a little" is a relative term but, I would do this up to your sleeping quotient.
    My "hold and add to" investments include real estate (REIT funds...REACX, CSRSX, VNQ), Commodities (I default to Scott in this area), Energy (Natural Gas seems the most undervalued but, I have been more diversified in VGENX, PRNEX, & GASFX), and maybe Emerging Markets (VWO, WAEMX, MSMLX, MAPIX, PRMSX, PRASX).
    Also, I am waiting to unload a few "stuck in the mud" funds...CAMAX, Japan funds (PRJPX, MJFOX) and a "broken and I can't get up" stock... RIMM.
    QE3 seems like a nice time to take stock and prepare for the colder seasons ahead.
  • EM Allocations.How much??
    Reply to @MikeM2:
    Hi MikeM2 - hey, catchy name :) I'm 58 which would be why I may have a more conservative outlook on EM percentage.
    We seem to be inundated with the message that developing markets are the place to be going forward, but that comes with much greater risk and volatility, which at my age is not worth it- at least not to me. That's why I stick mostly to less volatile funds like MACSX for my EM exposure, and I'm happy to have found ODVYX from BobC's posts. ODVYX has shown to be a less volatile EM fund then say PRMSX, which I was using for my EM fund in the past.
    I'll stick with domestic funds for the bulk of my portfolio.
  • Anyone Seeing Value in Poorly Performing Funds or Sectors
    I keep track on my watch list where funds are in comparison to their recent highs.
    Here are a few funds that are still way below recent highs, International, EM's, NR and minor funds for the most part. Notice MAPIX and MACSX have not fallen off their highs like the other Asian funds. A much nicer ride. This data was last updated towards the end of June.
    PRMSX -22%
    ODVYX -17
    PRLAX -38
    PRASX -27
    MACSX -8
    MAPIX -8
    MINDX -35
    MSMLX -31
    UMBWX -20
    HIINX -20
    VGTSX -24
    PRNEX -34
    USAGX -46
    TGLDX -35
    In comparison, US equities have done well.
    VFINX -6
    NAESX -9
  • Schwab: Dead End on Emerging Markets?
    Reply to @Old_Joe:
    Joe, I've used the TRP fund, PRMSX in the past. I've been out of EM's for a while, but just started a small position in ODVYX recently after looking into Bob's recommendations. PRMSX generally gets good press as a steady-eddie EM fund.
  • M* Fund Times 10/13/2011
    Reply to @scott: Ah, Scott, but you missed the excitement of the great plunge. I see from the M* chart that $10k invested at Tramx inception would be $7,100 today. Prmsx, the TRP general EM fund, would be $8,600, and W'Tree EM Eq Inc (Dem) $12,600.
  • Mapping out a "risk shift" strategy rather than a "sell" strategy for mutuals fund investors.
    Hi Bee. Here is a statistical way to look at probable return range for each of the holdings you gave. Basically, the data is calculated by using 90% probability, or 1.5 x the 3 year standard deviation, then subtracting it from the the 3 year avg return to get the low and adding it to the 3 year avg return to get the high. There is nothing magic about 3 year data. It's just an easy extract to get from M*. If you used 5 year or even 10 year if available, the probability range would likely be more accurate.
    One comment though, and this is just something I took from the last big market drop, having this many funds was (in my opinion) a mistake. They were hard to deal with. But to each her own. What I ended up with was a portfolio of 10 funds I feel good about that make up 80% of my 401k portfolio. PRPFX and FPACX are my biggest holdings. I hold this fairly conservative (50% equity) core through thick and thin. What I learned from 2008-2009 was I don't know when to get out or get back in... period. I'll leave it up to good managers that have a flexible mandate. The other 20% I use as what skeeter likes to call, ballast, which would basically be my plays, things like USAGX for pm's, PRNEX for nr/energy or MAPIX for asia, ect... or that 20% can be in cash, a GIC making 4% in my case. It's just more comfortable for me having my "core" separate from a few funds I play. But... we are all different.
    Anyway, below is the probable return based on 3 years returns and standard deviations using 90% probability. I hope the copy/paste comes out okay. I'm not very good at the formatting stuff.
    Ticker 90% probable return range
    CAMAX -40, 61
    CSRSX -54, 59
    FAIRX -44, 36
    GASFX -21, 31
    HRVIX -34, 34
    MAPIX -18, 43
    MATFX -37, 46
    MFCFX -22, 44
    MSMLX
    OAKBX -18, 20
    PONDX 4, 23
    PRHSX -29, 36
    PRMSX -53, 53
    PRMTX -31, 49
    PRPFX -8, 31
    PRWCX -25, 28
    PTTDX 3, 16
    TGBAX 0, 26
    TGMNX 5, 17
    USAGX -43, 95
    USAIX 0, 17
    VDE -41, 35
    VGHCX -23, 29
    VHCOX -40, 35
    VWO -45, 51
    WAEMX -34, 67
  • Mapping out a "risk shift" strategy rather than a "sell" strategy for mutuals fund investors.
    I have tried mapping out a "risk shift" strategy rather than a "sell" strategy with respect to the holdings in my portfolio. Would welcome comments.
    This "de-risking" has required me to first assign a risk tolerance (that I am comfortable with) to all of my holdings. The categories of risk tolerance are as follows:
    cash/cash equivalent...0% -3% downside risk due to currency devaluation and inflation (we'll ignore institutional financial strength...staying solvent)...I am presently using PONDX as my cash position and try to maintain 10-20% allocation with respect to my overall portfolio. This is where I look for cash when I look to buy "things on sale". I also have a small amount (5%) of Gold/Silver using CEF. Just an insurance policy on fat tail risk.
    Low...3% - 10% downside risk...I place funds like PRPFX = Permanent Portfolio and TGBAX = Templeton Global Bond Fund as well as a whole host of Total Return / Income Funds like PTTDX, TGMNX, or USAIX. These are the anchors. They are added to when I look at my overall allocation. I try to maintain a 30-50% allocation in these funds
    Moderate...10% - 20% downside risk...Many of my balanced/dividend/defensive funds fall into this category...MAPIX = Mathews Income, PRWCX=T Rowe Price Capital Appreciation, and OAKBX = Oakmark Fund. Also, PRHSX, VGHCX, GASFX, and CSRSX are some others I also include in this category. I consider these part of my core holdings that I add to when I have profits. In a downward trending market I try to de-risk my higher risk investments into these moderate risk funds. This keeps me somewhat in the market eliminating some of the market timing issues. I am never very good at spotting the exact bottom or top. So (risk shifting) into these moderate risk investments seems helpful when the market goes against me. This collection of funds could represent 20-40% of my portfolio.
    High... 20% - 33% downside risk...These are primarily equity funds that I own to follow a trend, and add some alpha. I have owned CAMAX, HRVIX, MFCFX, USAGX, PRMSX, VWO, VDE, VIT, VHCOX, PRMTX, MATFX, MSMLX, WAEMX, etc. This is the set of investments that I am monitoring and trying to upgrade...improve upon. When they hit the negative 20% level or move upward a positive 10% they become candidates to "de-risk". Some in this category are doing very well such as USAGX and I may consider taking profits some are not and I may reduce my exposure to them temporarily. Cash elsewhere in my portfolio allows me the ability to add to these funds when they are trending upward. When these funds are out of favor they could stay out of favor for sometime. I look to shift some or all of these holdings into a Moderate or low risk investment. I am willing to monitor them from a de-risked position. This category of funds could make up 5-20% of my overall portfolio.
    Extreme... 33%- or more downside risk... I have very small speculative position in RIMM (Research in Motion)...I have lost 55% so far this year with RIMM. I own FAIRX and have suffered a 29% loss in value with this fund. I planned on holding both of these 3-5 years but I will continue to monitor them closely and make regular "gut checks". In good times I would like to see 20% plus gains here before I de-risk some profits. These holdings could be represent 0 - 15% of my overall investments. They are small positions that I am willing to be patient with. I also find them to be my biggest learning experiences.
    As I said earlier, I am not very good at timing the market at the tops or bottoms so periodic de-risking an investment that is trending above or below your tolerance threshold might be worth considering.
    Comments welcome...
    bee
  • emergying market equity and bond funds.
    TRP gets my vote for both:
    PRMSX T. Rowe Price Emerging Markets Stock
    PREMX T. Rowe Price Emerging Markets Bond
  • What is your favorite T. Rowe Price fund
    Another vote for PRWCX as a core holding.
    TRP tends to have steady eddy type funds. These are slightly more steady eddy in a volatile asset class:
    PRMSX T. Rowe Price Emerging Markets Stock
    PREMX T. Rowe Price Emerging Markets Bond