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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • M*: Report on Health Savings Account Landscape
    I invest directly with Bruce Funds (BRUFX) for my HSA. My only fees are the funds ER (0.71%) and a $15/yr account maintenance fee. Returns have average 6% since I started. Other HSA providers offer a host of investment choices. If your employer's HSA plan has limited investment choices or high fees you can complete a once a year rollover or a trustee to trustee transfer to another HSA providers (of your choosing).
    how-to-rollover-an-hsa-on-your-own-and-avoid-trustee-transfer-fee
    Here's a M* report:
    Health savings accounts are a very under-researched corner of the market. Investors have few resources available to help them navigate the hundreds of plan providers that exist. Health savings accounts have recently grown in popularity, but the lack of resources has likely contributed to their under utilization as a savings vehicle despite their valuable tax benefits. To provide a comprehensive resource for investors and employers selecting a plan, we assessed 10 of the largest HSA plan providers in this report. We evaluated the plans through two separate lenses: using them as a spending vehicle to cover current medical costs, and using them as an investment vehicle to save for future medical expenses.
    Link for full Report:
    2017_Health_Savings_Account_Landscape
  • Question about asset allocation for the board
    Thanks for suggesting CAPE. It is a unique idea but I will stick to the basics.
  • Question about asset allocation for the board
    >> I also like the fact that by the nature of the SP500 index it gradually picks the winners for me and discards the losers
    Speaking of that slow process, you sound like one who might enjoy having part of your SP500 holding be the CAPE etn.
  • 12 Low-Cost Active Funds That Are Beating The S&P 500
    There are a few differences between a sector fund as bee compared too versus DSENX. In theory, CAPE will rotate sectors within the fund, not stay stagnant with 1 sector. In that it holds a 'diversified' selection of 4 (or is it 5) sectors also sets it apart from a comparison with a specific sector fund. You may not be broadly investing with a fund like DSENX, but you certainly are more diversified than a sector fund like FSMEX. I don't think you can compare returns from the 2.
  • 12 Low-Cost Active Funds That Are Beating The S&P 500
    Yours are all niche (sector) endeavors, right?
    The article is about broad investing.
    You can always find sector good stuff. I sure wish I had been in 4-5 Fido sectors since they came out in the 1980s.
    Are there truly any other CAPE-based funds?
  • 12 Low-Cost Active Funds That Are Beating The S&P 500
    For some reason FSMEX, FSRPX & PRNHX received no love...that's o.k., please ignore their out performance.
    @davidmoran...I kinda of agree, but CAPE (DSENX) is still not the only "CAPE crusader"...since 2013 (FSMEX has been pretty good):
    image
  • 12 Low-Cost Active Funds That Are Beating The S&P 500
    yup
    one year is about nada, and one year-plus where growth really exploded (compare any of these with CAPE the last 18 months, say) means only that you shoulda bought a namebrand growth fund xmas of '16.
  • Vanguard: Investors Should Look For 'The Catch' In Fidelity's No-Fee Funds
    Another move trying to retain existing investors or getting new investors. Many like to invest with Fidelity sector funds and they have many choices. The recent rise of ETFs and sector ETFs change the landscape considerably, so does Fidelity's AUM. In the meantime, Vanguard and Blackrock are taking away another big slice from their index funds. These days Fidelity is still a dominant player to manage institutional accounts (i.e. 401(K) accounts) for large cooperations.
  • Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund to change name (and possibly more?)
    The fund's already gone through minor (no pun intended) tweaks. I believe it started out as Gold and Precious Metals. From its 1994 prospectus:
    The Gold & Precious Metals Portfolio invests in the equity securities of
    foreign and domestic companies engaged in the exploration, mining,
    fabrication, processing, or marketing and distribution of gold, silver,
    platinum, diamonds or other precious and rare metals and minerals. The
    Portfolio may also invest up to 20% of its assets directly in gold,
    silver or other precious metal bullion and coins.
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/734383/0000893220-94-000267.txt
    In May 2001, it changed from a diversified fund to a nondiversified fund:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/734383/000093247101500144/precmetals523.txt
    Apparently at or near the same time, it dropped the "Gold" from its name, becoming simply Precious Metals,. The next change came May 24, 2004. Mining was added to the name, and mining stocks played a bigger role in the portfolio:
    FUND TO REOPEN WITH BROADER INVESTMENT MANDATE AND NEW NAME
    Effective on or about May 24, 2004, Vanguard Precious Metals Fund will reopen to
    investors with a broader investment mandate and a new name.
    The board of trustees has decided to expand the fund's investment mandate.
    On the effective date of this change, the fund will invest at least 80% of its
    assets in the stocks of foreign and U.S. companies principally engaged in the
    exploration, mining, development, fabrication, processing, marketing, or
    distribution of (or other activities related to) metals or minerals. The
    majority of these companies will be principally engaged in activities related to
    gold, silver, platinum, diamonds, or other precious and rare metals or minerals.
    The remaining companies will be principally engaged in activities related to
    nickel, copper, zinc, or other base and common metals or minerals.
    The board of trustees acted in response to the increasing concentration of
    the metals and minerals industries, a trend that limited the options available
    to the fund's investment advisor. The decline in the number of precious metals
    issues on the market, combined with the advisor's stringent quality criteria,
    made it difficult to keep the portfolio fully invested while maintaining the
    overall quality and diversity of its holdings. The trustees therefore decided to
    broaden the range of stocks in which the fund can invest while adhering to its
    traditional investment strategies.
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/734383/000093247104000482/precious032004.txt
    I have no idea what Vanguard is trying to do with this latest change. Investing in companies/industries with declining CAPEX sounds like investing in cash cows. That's an income play, the opposite of what I'd expect from a fund that will continue to keep over 25% in precious metals and mining.
    I'm confused.
  • Mutual funds ... who is adding to positions
    Initiated position in APFDX (same team as ARTRX) and re-entered CAPE when price seemed favorable in late June. Sold final slice of long-term holding WSVIX recently as I believe better options exist in small value/blend (FTHNX, for example). Sold DBC and MOTI, the latter for under-performance. Already out of EM for a while and not looking to add yet.
  • Mutual funds ... who is adding to positions
    @davidmoran, DSEEX is doing well this year and pays out a small monthly dividend. The European equivalent CAPE fund is doing quite as well since it is not hedged to USD.
    My long held MAINX is lagging badly this year as the dollar strengthened. Still like this fund better than emerging market bonds and those in local currencies. I have been following PCI but it is trading at a premium so I will wait.
    I would advise against chasing the better performing asset - certainly not in one lump sum. If need to be, consider buying in dips over a 3-6 months period. Cash is still a viable option since money market is paying close to 2%.
  • Mutual funds ... who is adding to positions
    I am adding to DSEEX (small amounts) every chance I get, dip or no dip, as I compared newish etfs like VALQ, QARP, QLC, QDEF, others, with CAPE, which I do with every new LCV (or even tangentially related) idea, saw no advantage, and figured why not?
    Bought PCI and PRSNX (hope this latter is not a mistake) with proceeds from PDI and PTY sales. As ever, looking for genuine diversification.
    Debating whether to move one of my children (nontrivial amount) into FCPGX (missed latest runup), thoughts welcome.
  • Pretty Soon, You'll Get To Invest Just Like Ray Dalio
    Geez, today; more than ever, one can build their own (risk parity), eh?
    Build your own "risk parity" is readily available via etf's or managed funds, if one chooses to be fully aggressive via whichever.
    What ya want ??? ETF category list
    From a male perspective, what one builds depends how much exposure to one's gonads on a chopping block is "enough".
    'Course, you may want to have your own benchmark, yes?
    I'll offer only these two that travel the 50-70% equity/bond mix:
    --- FBALX with a 15 year annualized total return of 8.4%
    --- FPURX with a 15 year annualized total return of 8.1%
    what is risk parity ?
    In the end (choose your own time frame), one will have their very good and mediocre performance years. Being in the right place at the right time with particular holdings, lends to the good and bad periods.
    Sidenote: This house could have obtained a much larger return in the few years after the market melt, if we'd only known the market burn was really finished, well except for the ongoing burn(s) in Europe. But, we also escaped the market melt; so our base money starting point was higher than those who sold too much near the bottoms.
    Good fortune with your ongoing, being in the right place at the right time with your investments; as well as attempting to determine what a reversion to the mean really is today.
    Regards,
    Catch
  • Research Affiliates: Pundits Predicting Panic In Emerging Markets
    FYI:
    .With EM stock prices plummeting and investors fleeing EM funds, the fear of emerging markets is palpable. Our examination of three key metrics—external debt, foreign exchange reserves, and current account balance—shows, however, that EM countries have low risk of a broad funding crisis.
    .EM stocks are comparatively cheap when measured by CAPE, price-to-book ratio, price-to-sales ratio, market cap to GDP, and other metrics. Now, when fear reigns supreme, it’s time to buy, not sell.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.researchaffiliates.com/en_us/publications/articles/679-pundits-predicting-panic-in-emerging-markets.html
  • This Rare 10.5% Dividend Won't Be Cheap For Long
    this dude should discover and write about CAPE instead, jeez (total return, not payout)
  • MFO Ratings Updated Through May 2018
    Charles,
    Thx for your invaluable hard work-- and Bravo!
    Looking forward to an itinerary through the data landscape, a conference call, and of course, to future updates.
  • DSEEX/DSENX Annual Report
    I was considering selling some as I have some big bills due this fall, not for any other reason. But I may sell other things instead and pay the tax.
    Anyway, it would have to do notably worse than SP500 for a good stretch of time for me to rethink. It remains 60% of our total.
    I was comparing CAPE with many of the broad equity CEFs listed in someone's recent posting of https://seekingalpha.com/article/4180327-15-closed-end-funds-consistent-market-beaters-part-2 . CAPE outperforms the ones I checked (till I got bored) except for the last year, when many US equity bundlings have rocketed past it.
    I wonder what CAPE's premium might be if it were not an etn....
  • DSEEX/DSENX Annual Report
    I received my copy of DoubleLine's annual report from Schwab today:
    https://doublelinefunds.com/wp-content/uploads/DFT-Annual-Report-Web-Ready-v2.pdf
    I wonder if others besides @davidmoran are reducing or will reduce positions. It's pretty obvious that the CAPE funds are losing ground to the S&P, although long-term they are still ahead of that bogey. I have not touched my position, FWIIW.
    I don't own any other DL funds, but the annual report is ample evidence of how hard it is to make a buck in bonds these days.
  • Barry Ritholtz's Masters In Business: Guest: Jim Chanos: On Having An Edge
    FYI: This week, we speak with famed short seller Jim Chanos, founder and president of Kynikos Associates LP, the world’s largest exclusive short-selling investment firm.
    Chanos has identified — and sold short — many of the past 3 decades best-known corporate disasters. His celebrated short-sale of Enron shares was dubbed by Barron’s as “the market call of the decade, if not the past 50 years.” He also made bets against Baldwin-United, Commodore International, Coleco, Integrated Resources, Boston Chicken, Sunbeam, Conseco, Tyco International, and most recently, Valeant Pharmaceuticals.
    He explains why he believes Elon Musk’s first love is SpaceX, and that “Tesla is a zero.”
    Chanos said that when he launched Kynikos, there were a few 100 hedge funds, only 20 or 30 of which generating alpha. He presently sits on a number of boards where he helps to allocate capital. Market participants have gotten better, the landscape has become more competitive, and the funds have turned into large 300-person businesses. Despite 11,000 hedge fund choices, today there are even fewer hedge funds outperforming.
    He asks, via Julian Robertson, the all important question “What is your edge.” Most managers lack a sustainable edge — trading, research, deviant perception — as reversion to mean is such a powerful process.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://ritholtz.com/2018/05/mib-jim-chanos-edge/
  • DSENX
    Bitzer, it's bench mark is large value, not the S&P 500. Against it's benchmark, the LV category, it is not performing poorly. Seems LV may be taking a pause right now with higher than normal valuations.
    I respectfully disagree on the benchmark, and am admittedly out of the mainstream here.
    The CAPE index rotates among all sectors of the domestic market, not just ones that focus on value stocks. Its method of selection is not to pick stocks or sectors that are undervalued relative to the market. Rather, it selects sectors, including growth sectors, that are undervalued relative to themselves - relative to their historical (perhaps high) valuations. Its fishing pond, so to speak, is the entire S&P 500.
    Thus, IMHO, that is the appropriate benchmark. In addition, that is the benchmark (aside from the CAPE US Sector index) selected by the fund itself to benchmark its performance. See summary prospectus.
    Buying heavily into blend or even growth stocks (relative to the market) is not merely hypothetical. Here is the most recent sector allocation disclosure of DSENX (March 31, 2018 portfolio). Using iShare ETFs as proxies for the S&P 500 sectors, the allocation was:
    Consumer Staples (XLP): 25.13%
    Consumer Discretionary (XLY): 25.10%
    Healthcare (XLV): 24.99%
    Technology (XLK): 24.78%
    A M* instant X-ray shows a portfolio that's 31% value (29% large cap), 30% blend (27% large cap), and 39% growth (38% large cap).
    If you want to call this value investing, that's fine, but it's a different way of viewing value than M* or Lipper use - they look at the portfolio and compare it to the market as a whole (using standard metrics like P/E). So do the companies like S&P and Russell that define the value benchmarks. Viewed through this lens, the CAPE US Sector Index doesn't resemble value funds all that well.