FYI:
.With EM stock prices plummeting and investors fleeing EM funds, the fear of emerging markets is palpable. Our examination of three key metrics—external debt, foreign exchange reserves, and current account balance—shows, however, that EM countries have low risk of a broad funding crisis.
.EM stocks are comparatively cheap when measured by CAPE, price-to-book ratio, price-to-sales ratio, market cap to GDP, and other metrics. Now, when fear reigns supreme, it’s time to buy, not sell.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.researchaffiliates.com/en_us/publications/articles/679-pundits-predicting-panic-in-emerging-markets.html

this dude should discover and write about CAPE instead, jeez (total return, not payout)

Charles,
Thx for your invaluable hard work-- and Bravo!
Looking forward to an itinerary through the data landscape, a conference call, and of course, to future updates.

I was considering selling some as I have some big bills due this fall, not for any other reason. But I may sell other things instead and pay the tax.
Anyway, it would have to do notably worse than SP500 for a good stretch of time for me to rethink. It remains 60% of our total.
I was comparing CAPE with many of the broad equity CEFs listed in someone's recent posting of https://seekingalpha.com/article/4180327-15-closed-end-funds-consistent-market-beaters-part-2 . CAPE outperforms the ones I checked (till I got bored) except for the last year, when many US equity bundlings have rocketed past it.
I wonder what CAPE's premium might be if it were not an etn....

I received my copy of DoubleLine's annual report from Schwab today:
https://doublelinefunds.com/wp-content/uploads/DFT-Annual-Report-Web-Ready-v2.pdf
I wonder if others besides @davidmoran are reducing or will reduce positions. It's pretty obvious that the CAPE funds are losing ground to the S&P, although long-term they are still ahead of that bogey. I have not touched my position, FWIIW.
I don't own any other DL funds, but the annual report is ample evidence of how hard it is to make a buck in bonds these days.

FYI: This week, we speak with famed short seller Jim Chanos, founder and president of Kynikos Associates LP, the world’s largest exclusive short-selling investment firm.
Chanos has identified — and sold short — many of the past 3 decades best-known corporate disasters. His celebrated short-sale of Enron shares was dubbed by Barron’s as “the market call of the decade, if not the past 50 years.” He also made bets against Baldwin-United, Commodore International, Coleco, Integrated Resources, Boston Chicken, Sunbeam, Conseco, Tyco International, and most recently, Valeant Pharmaceuticals.
He explains why he believes Elon Musk’s first love is SpaceX, and that “Tesla is a zero.”
Chanos said that when he launched Kynikos, there were a few 100 hedge funds, only 20 or 30 of which generating alpha. He presently sits on a number of boards where he helps to allocate capital. Market participants have gotten better, the landscape has become more competitive, and the funds have turned into large 300-person businesses. Despite 11,000 hedge fund choices, today there are even fewer hedge funds outperforming.
He asks, via Julian Robertson, the all important question “What is your edge.” Most managers lack a sustainable edge — trading, research, deviant perception — as reversion to mean is such a powerful process.
Regards,
Ted
http://ritholtz.com/2018/05/mib-jim-chanos-edge/

Bitzer, it's bench mark is large value, not the S&P 500. Against it's benchmark, the LV category, it is not performing poorly. Seems LV may be taking a pause right now with higher than normal valuations.

I respectfully disagree on the benchmark, and am admittedly out of the mainstream here.
The CAPE index rotates among all sectors of the domestic market, not just ones that focus on value stocks. Its method of selection is not to pick stocks or sectors that are undervalued relative to the market. Rather, it selects sectors, including growth sectors, that are undervalued relative to themselves - relative to their historical (perhaps high) valuations. Its fishing pond, so to speak, is the entire S&P 500.
Thus, IMHO, that is the appropriate benchmark. In addition, that is the benchmark (aside from the CAPE US Sector index) selected by the fund itself to benchmark its performance. See summary prospectus.
Buying heavily into blend or even growth stocks (relative to the market) is not merely hypothetical. Here is the most recent sector allocation disclosure of DSENX (March 31, 2018 portfolio). Using iShare ETFs as proxies for the S&P 500 sectors, the allocation was:
Consumer Staples (XLP): 25.13%
Consumer Discretionary (XLY): 25.10%
Healthcare (XLV): 24.99%
Technology (XLK): 24.78%
A M* instant X-ray shows a portfolio that's 31% value (29% large cap), 30% blend (27% large cap), and 39% growth (38% large cap).
If you want to call this value investing, that's fine, but it's a different way of viewing value than M* or Lipper use - they look at the portfolio and compare it to the market as a whole (using standard metrics like P/E). So do the companies like S&P and Russell that define the value benchmarks. Viewed through this lens, the CAPE US Sector Index doesn't resemble value funds all that well.

Thanks; I know all this, meaning (only) that I know what CAPE says about how it works and what DSE_X says about how it works.
Since w/ the mfunds it happens automatically monthly, I was simply trying to grok your
>> investing in ... the ability of a management team to maneuver within the volatility of indices' expiration dates.
and now
>> CAPE ... tries to predict an index's prices
iff different from how all earnings-based investing hopefully works. That's all.

Dunno about either; figured you would explain further and more exactly re 'ability of a management team to maneuver within the volatility of those expiration dates' --- management's processes and dynamics and timing. The monthly churn (CAPE) is not subject to maneuvering, I think.
There are prior extensive descriptive writeups on this forum, from (I believe) ~12 and ~13 mos ago. Thought you knew, since you sounded as if you did.

For sure with its automatic monthly 'value churn', CAPE should underperform SP500 at times, and certainly has recently.
As for the effects of the bond sauce, which are not large, I get the following, rounded, total (unless I'm reading my calculator wrong, always a possibility):
ytd - underperforming CAPE by 0.6%
1y - underperformed CAPE by 0.7%
2y - outperformed CAPE by a thin hair
3y - underperformed CAPE by 0.7%
4y - outperformed CAPE by 1%
4.5y (since inception) - outperformed CAPE by 2.6%
DSEEX better than the above, of course, but the last year and ytd it lags CAPE too.
It appears the ER-covering bond sauce is getting staler.
Yes, M* appears to have the style box wrong.
>> investing in ... price movements of an index or indices which have expiration dates, and the ability of a management team to maneuver within the volatility of those expiration dates.
Huh. Is that a useful way to characterize it?

@Derf
For the 1 year period:
DSENX = +10%
CAPE = + 10.8%
JKF = +8.5%
JKF is by no means a pure compare for the other 2; but gives a reference point if one were invested in large value index type.
I imagine there exists any number of configurations for large value indexes.
I "see" only the 5 digit tickers are currently highlighted and clickable.
*****JKF The iShares Morningstar Large-Cap Value ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of large-capitalization U.S. equities that exhibit value characteristics.

DSENX , M* category indeed is listed as lg.cap value, while "investment style" is noted as "small growth".
Chart compare, total 1 year returns for DSENX , CAPE , and my choice of etf JKF.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?DSENX,CAPE,JKF&p=5&O=011000

One can decompose DSENX into three components:
1) CAPE
2) Bond fund + leveraging costs (i.e. cost of getting the roughly 100% extra cash to buy the bonds)
3) ER
Over the past year, DSENX has underperformed CAPE by about 0.75%. (CAPE in turn has underperformed the S&P 500 by about 3% - others can look into that.)
Intermediate term bonds have returned virtually nothing over the past year. While one can't easily say how PIMCO is managing its bond sleeve, that at least gives us a ballpark sense of the bond market. Subtract off leveraging costs, and it's easy to see where this fund could lose a percent or even a couple from its bonds.
Add another 0.4% cost above that of CAPE, and altogether it's not hard to see this fund underperforming CAPE by 0.75% (at least), which in turn underperformed the S&P 500 by 3%.

Boglehead Article: CAPE and SWR (Safe Withdrawal Rate):
cape-and-safe-withdrawal-rates/
Referenced in the above article (thanks...link works now):
Simple Formulas to Implement Complex Withdrawal Strategies
Helpful Calculator (Excel...Read Only...download and save as a different file name to modify):
davidmblanchett.com/tools

FYI: Sixty-nine year old Janet Smith feels like a swimmer who just escaped a riptide. Relieved, she told me, “I finally sold my house. Buying that house was one of the biggest mistakes I ever made.” I’ve changed Janet’s name to protect her identity. But plenty of people can relate to her story–and her new dilemma.
Regards,
Ted
https://assetbuilder.com/knowledge-center/articles/should-a-lifetime-annuity-fuel-your-retirement

But I have found I can usually find as good or better returns funds without loads.

@CathyG, you have it right. Don't be swayed by any baloney about there being a benefit to paying a load on any fund. In any case, most load funds today can be purchased load waved at brokerages like Schwab or Fidelity anyway. Pioneer, Eaton Vance, Thornburg, First Eagle, Pimco, pretty much most of the big load fund families except for American funds are load waived at Schwab.
And FWIW, I use the CAPE fund, DSENX, as my large cap value play. GTLOX on the growthier side of large cap.

Fascinating to watch how value comparatively fails from 15y on it, by year, when you do $10k-growth graphing.
If you do that, be sure to include RPG and RPV (can't start 15y ago), to assess how 'large-capness' is key.
Growth has really taken off the last couple years.
For the last 5.5y it was interesting (for me) to see how CAPE differs from LCV, when it does.

CG, you are entirely welcome. Many are put off by the derivatives thing until they dive deeper into how CAPE works and what DSE_X does.
If you put $100k or more into it, the one you want is DSEEX.
There is quite a bit of explanatory posting on it here, if you poke around.
If only the euro version was having any success.

So let's have a conversation regarding "risk off" investments...Dan. This article seemed thin on suggestions. I'll give it a try.
If,
Fed raises rates 2-4 times... US bonds will suffer.
Options:
-Bank Loan Funds
-Non-US Bonds (that hold local currency risk as well country / sector risk)
-Laddered CDs (that hold liquidity risk & inflation risk)
-High Interest rate MMFs (cash)...FZDXX has been mentioned her at MFO
Geopolitical Conflicts:
Options:
-Gold (that hold currency risk)
-LT US Treasuries (that hold interest rate risk)
Over Priced Equities:
Options:
-Identify Under-priced US Equities - NR, Energy, Utilities, Financials,etc.
-Hold equities or sector funds that have exhibited better downside risk such as Healthcare
-Own cash heavy mutual funds who know how to deploy cash when valuations are favorable
-Own risk managed Funds verses Index funds
-Own Equity dividend payers and live off the dividend until growth resumes
-Own quality stock companies with strong fundamentals who can buy distressed competition
-Own Global Equities with Low CAPE Ratios - Russia, South Korea, etc.
-see more here ...Global CAPE (Country by Country):
https://starcapital.de/en/research/stock-market-valuation/
Is PONDanX suggesting we light up on PONAX?
-As a smart income fund manager wouldn't he navigate this better than you or I. I would hope so, but he gives no clue as to his present strategies...more like, "women and children first!" Wish he was more constructive.
It's times like this where I am reminded of the virtues of PRPFX.

@LewisBraham, you brought back challenging times. Certainly learned my lessons in both bear markets. Most important thing was not to sell in those period and remind myself that investment is for the long term. Several years later everything recovered and more. High quality bonds held up well and periodic rebalancing really helped.
Not sure what the triggering points for the next bear market will be. But I will stick to my plan.
@davismoran, I did not research CAPE on bodgeheads site. Many of the posters are Vanguard and DFA diehards.