Reply to @catch22: I'm not in retirement age, and I don't particularly like playing specific things like what's going on in Japan, but I think that 1:) what's going on in Japan is going to play out over a longer period (more than something that just plays out over a quarter or 6 mo) and 2:) there will probably be opportunities to get in lower.
If I was at/near retirement, I'd just be in P & G, J & J and the like around the world - boring, provides a nice yield and largely don't require looking after.
Vanguard's Consumer Staples etf (VDC) offers a 2.95% yield and lost only 16.95% in 2008.

One of the perks of being with Schwab, I guess. They do some things very well, like their Personal Choice Retirement Accounts. Other stuff not so well, which I have groused about previously.
But in this case...AOK. Here are the screen-shots showing DPIAX and PGBAX as No Load No Fee:




Hey...I did not know that AOK was a fund symbol until now! AOK is iShares S&P Conservative Allocation ETF. Gotta add that one to my notable list =).

FYI:
Regards,
Ted
http://www.marketwatch.com/Story/story/print?guid=1E8D2FAC-61BF-11E2-AD22-002128040CF6
Center For Retirement Research Boston College: http://crr.bc.edu/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/IB_13-1.pdf
The Actual Study: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=567122

How about a foreign small cap? MSMLX. Just to introduce a little wrinkle.
http://quote.morningstar.com/fund/f.aspx?pgid=hetopquote&t=msmlx
It is at the very least competitive with the other Matthews funds in terms of performance. I do not own it, though. I'm holding enough individual funds to make me happy and keep me busy, monitoring it all. And since retirement, I've got more time to do that. Wifey's working. Do I feel guilty? Hell, no.

Hi Charles,
Once again, thank you for your current posting. It is an daunting piece of work that documents your commitment to manage your portfolio in a risk control manner. I’m sure your end portfolio wealth will reward you for your diligence and work ethic.
Also, thank you for introducing me to Martin’s Ulcer Index. Until your posting, I was not familiar with that alternate risk measurement. Risk is a complex concept that likely means different things to different folks. I’ll definitely add the Ulcer formulation to my array of risk assessment measures.
Your findings reinforce the adage that portfolio diversification works wonders in the risk control arena. Reducing portfolio volatility increases geometric returns which is paramount to portfolio end wealth. It also decreases the sheer number of negative annual returns and any maximum annual loss. Both of these factors reduce anxiety and encourage a “stay the course” discipline. All this is in the goodness direction.
As in any serious study (and your study is indeed serious), the conclusions are tightly coupled to the assumptions, constraints, and selection criteria imposed on the overall study.
You greatly expanded the solution map by examining thousands of mutual fund candidates over numerous timeframes extending backward to over 40 years. Great. You greatly restricted the solution map by postulating a maximum annual portfolio loss (ultimately your 10 %, 7 %, 4 % component criteria) and by specifying a conservative 4-component portfolio that featured a rather large cash component and a 30 % to 40 % equity position.
These criteria are needed to identify candidate funds, but are not universal. Modify any of these elements and the solution map is immediately changed. These assumptions and constraints govern the remaining portfolio choices (not surprisingly since they were designed with that goal). But because of these reservations, your findings can not be quickly extrapolated to other portfolio constructions or downside risk tolerance without hazard. I’m sure you recognize these limitations; others may not.
In your final observation you questioned if your specific current findings can be used as a forecasting tool. Your results to date provide a partial answer – No. That provisional negative answer is informed by the various timeframes that you explored.
Each timeframe that you examined yielded a different array of “winning” mutual funds. Performance persistence was never established. A performance regression-to-the-mean seemed to be the operative paradigm. Several academic and industry studies have demonstrated that even superior performing mutual funds have a few very bad years imbedded in their overall outstanding record. Projecting future performance is a tough nut.
In no way do these comments diminish the advantages of portfolio diversification. It’s useful stuff. In a sense your findings support the John Bogle admonishment to fully diversify, but to do so with passive Index options to not only control risk, but control costs too.
Charles, you are doing yeomen work. In no way are my comments meant to denigrate or demean your fine efforts. Your work can only enhance your market understanding, your insights, and your portfolio construction.
In the end, you will enjoy a more stress free retirement. Good for you. Your postings will inform all MFO participants. Good for us.
Best Wishes.

Reply to @Charles: They stopped their tie-up with Target to sell mobile phones in their stores because it wasn't working out - I'm curious how that is massively positive. Another pair of companies will just take the place of RSH selling phones at TGT. (http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/14/us-radioshack-target-idUSBRE90D18E20130114?type=companyNews)
A third of the float is short. It may be a decent speculative holding, or at least a decent short squeeze play, although that may have already happened to some degree. It may just wind up being like Rite Aid and just muddling along (although I remain sorta interested in Rite Aid, as the demand is probably going to be there with the amount of people reaching retirement age.)

TIAA-CREF is a massive organization, and one needs to be careful and precise when discussing their products and services. Without detail, it is difficult if not impossible to offer specific comments. For example, Hank talked about the TIAA-CREF retail mutual fund offerings, which I suspect is not what the OP (STB65) is being offered. (I make that inference from various factoids: 403b plan, class R6 for American Funds [Europacific], Vanguard Signal class, etc.)
So let me offer a few sweeping statements and guesses. Generally, 403b plans are annuities (even though the law was changed several years ago to allow other types of 403b plans). TIAA-CREF retirement plans are almost exclusively annuities in any case. I don't know what the Fidelity options are. All that said, the wrapper (additional) cost for TIAA-CREF plans are miniscule (my guess is around 10 basis pts). In addition, the fact that R6 share class is being offered says that this is a very large plan, and you are getting extremely low cost share classes of funds.
I know that because American Funds (which runs the fine EuroPacific fund) offers retirement fund share classes R-1 through R-6. The higher the number, the lower the expense, and the bigger the institution has to be to qualify. Similarly, Vanguard Signal class shares are the some of the cheapest you can get - cheaper than Investor, than Admiral shares. (But Vanguard sometimes has a separate clone fund for institutions that's cheaper still.)
So we know at least a couple of things - we're talking about a very inexpensive plan, likely cheaper than anything Fidelity has to offer, and we're talking about a wide variety of funds offered, whether through TIAA-CREF or Fidelity, though in either case it's not the whole universe (these are employer-sponsored plans). And this is why offering specific comments is difficult without more details.
(FWIW, I have posted in the past comparing Fidelity's and TIAA-CREF's retail annuities, and there's no question TIAA-CREF wins hands down for many reasons - cost, performance, variety of offerings, etc. But just as I feel Hank's comments may not be applicable to the OP's question, my own observation about these retail products is likewise not particularly germane.)
Since this 403b is with a former employer, it seems that the OP would be able to roll it over into an IRA and do anything with it, including setting up the IRA with TRP. But then the OP would lose the access to some excellent institutional share class funds. I can't talk about all of them (don't know the options), but can offer a few comments about the funds mentioned (and two unmentioned).
TIAA-CREF offers TIAA Real Estate - this is a unique portfolio. TIAA invests directly in real estate - no REIT wrappers, no REOCs; pure real estate, just as an equity mutual fund generally invests directly in stocks. But true mutual funds are prohibited from investing directly in real estate; you can only do this through special plans like the TIAA-CREF 403b. (Investor has pointed this out as well.) TIAA-CREF also offers a fine stable value (traditional annuity) option, though it doesn't sound like the OP is particularly concerned with what to do with cash.
As to the funds mentioned:
EuroPacific Growth is the largest international fund in terms of assets ($100B+), yet continues to have excellent performance. To get it without a load, with an ER of 50 basis points, is great.
Templeton Global Bond - Hasentab is a unique manager - plays currency separately from bonds (so that he may be 20% long in a country's bonds while being 10% short in that country's currency); buys the best bonds the world over based on the bonds themselves, not the countries. No one else like him. Has the freedom to go anywhere, which is why, even though this is a "world" bond fund, it is almost all in EM bonds now (Korea 15%, Hungary 13%, Poland 9%, Mexico, Indonesia, Ukrane each 7%, etc.)
PIMCO Total Return III - similar to PIMCO Total Return - the country's largest mutual fund; both managed by Bill Gross. Unlike TR, TR II has "only" $4B in assets, giving Gross a little more flexibility. I'm not a fan of his, but obviously many people are - enough to give him almost $1T dollars to manage. Can't argue with the performance numbers Gross continues to put up, despite the occasional slip like 2011.
Vanguard 500 Index - what is there to say? If one likes S&P index funds, this one costs 5 basis points and one can't beat Vanguard for quality of index fund management or dedication to long term investors (as is typical for retirement plan investors).
Vanguard Total Int'l Index - Vanguard gradually changed its benchmark. They finally built a fund that includes Canada, EM, smaller companies as well as the usual EAFE components. While one can argue that one wants, say, more EM, if one buys into the index argument that the idea is to buy the whole market, then this may be the best representation of what the world has to offer. Again, Signal class gives you very low ER (16 basis points), fine Vanguard management.
Don't know as much about the other funds named - they're smaller, typically load only, so off my radar. Would like to know what other choices you have.

Reply to @andrei:
ABNIX continues to be available in Firstrade retirement accounts for a $500 minimum. I bought the fund there and then moved it to Wellstrade where I made additional purchases.
Kevin

I was a bit surprised to see no one had OSTVX, which I have been watching for about 6 months and am ready to jump in with finally. It was covered here once in 2012 and originally in 2011. No, it does not have a 10 year record, but its management team does. I have been comparing it mostly to MAPOX and DODBX, and I like its value tilt, I am an old UMBIX holder as my core fund (sold out when manager announced he would retire) and like managers that like the unloved but intriguing stories. I recently switched my retirement funds away from a supermarket to asset managed status at ML and have access to advice, but I still love to do my own research. Anyone have this one?

I have largely done my repositioning for 2013 in the few days of December.
So right now I am about 66% equities in total retirement portfolio, a few percentage more than last year despite doing some sideways moves.
I am doing marginal additions via 401k purchases. I still have to put 2012 Roth contributions for me and wife (after paying property taxes)

Howdy,
A thank you to all who post the links, start and participate in the many fine commentaries woven into the message threads.
For those who don't know; I ramble away about this and that, at least once each week. The perspectives and investments are based, not upon a formal economic studies background; but from the "School of Hard Knocks & Studies", in which, we are still enrolled.
NOTE: This portfolio is designed for retirement, capital preservation and to stay ahead of inflation creep. This is not a buy and hold portfolio, and is subject to change on any given day; based upon perceptions of market directions. All assets in this portfolio are in tax-sheltered accounts; and any fund distributions are reinvested in the funds. Gains or losses are computed from actual account values.
While looking around....."WHAT-ever!" If this house had a $100 bill for every time we have had this phrase over this past few years; especially from the "tweens and teens". But, as to real situations with investing; "whatever" does apply relative to one's basket of investments, still relative to the risk/reward, needs and wants of the investor.
Your investment dollars enter at point A, bottom center, out of view; choose your tracks; and exit at point B, top center, for travel into the land of happy returns.
Now that you have finished that task, don't forget to continue to do this; in case your travel package wasn't totally what you expected; and you may then be prepared to choose other tracks.
Now, that was easy, eh?; ya, right!
The Millionaire Next Door, 1996 A book we always give as an extra wedding present. Investment book lists have been placed, here at MFO, previously; but if one can not properly control their spending and budget habits, there may be little money to invest and not much need for investment books. Some of the data and numbers used in the book will be out of date; but not the main thrust, "spending and debt habits, may eat one alive". Ages old bad habits, continuing to cause problems for many today.
As to sector rotations below (Fidelity funds); for the past week: (Note: any given fund in any of these sectors will have varying degrees of performance based upon where the manager(s) choose to be invested and will not directly reflect upon your particular fund holdings from other vendors.) Sidenote: The average weekly return of 200 combined Fidelity retail funds across all sectors (week avg = +.41%, YTD +2.2%).
--- U.S. equity - .4% through + 1.0%, week avg. = + .4% YTD = + 3.4%
--- Int'l equity - 1.7% through + 1.9%, week avg. = + .5% YTD = + 1.9%
--- Select eq. sectors - .6% through + 2.8%, week avg. = + .6% YTD = + 3.7%
--- U.S./Int'l bonds - .3% through + 1.0%, week avg. = +24 .67% YTD = - .22%
--- HY bonds - .8% through + .8%, week avg. = + .20% YTD = + .66%
A Decent Overview, M* 1 Month through 5 Year, Multiple Indexes
You may consider our portfolio to be quite boring, but you may be assured that it moves and bends each and every day; from forces beyond our control.
I have added a few blips related to our portfolio and market observations at the below SELLs/BUYs and Portfolio Thoughts.
SELLs/BUYs THIS PAST WEEK: = NONE
Portfolio Thoughts: Our holdings had a + .53 % move this past week. EM bonds continue to be weak from early Dec., 2012, averaging -2% since then. The past week found some recovery in the IG bond area; TIPs, gov't. and corporate issues; although most of these areas remain negative for the year. High yield bonds continue to find strength; as well as multisector and specialty (steroid) bond funds. As to our equity entrance watch; well, new 5 year and 52 week highs are everywhere. Watch is what we will do for now; at least for pure equity funds adventures. We'll either miss a continued equity run for months to come; or find a better entry point within the next 2 month period. We can't imagine some of the big players not taking some profits, if; equities hit a 10% return point in the next several weeks. The algo machines will be counting, watching and waiting for the signal.
We'll continue to watch; and do have plans, at this time, to add some equity this year, 2013. Our current short list, not in any order, of equity fund watches include: PAUDX, PAAIX, MAPIX, MACSX, SFGIX, GPGIX, FMIJX, FTIEX, FBALX, FTEMX, FEDDX, FIREX, FJPNX, FSVLX, FSDIX, FPURX, FLPSX, FGHNX, PMZDX as well as some other Pimco funds, as PSTDX, etc.
Still plodding along, and we will retain the below write from previous weeks; as what we are watching, still applies.
--- commodity pricing, especially the energy and base materials areas; copper and related.
--- the $US broad basket value, and in particular against the Euro and Aussie dollar (EU zone and China/Asia uncertainties).
--- price directions of U.S. treasury's, German bunds, U.K. gilts, Japanese bonds; and continued monitoring of Spanish/Italian bond pricing/yield.
--- what we are watching to help understand the money flows: SHY, IEF, TLT, TIPZ, STPZ, LTPZ, LQD, EMB, HYG, IWM, IYT & VWO; all of which offer insights reflected from the big traders as to the quality/risk, or lack of quality/risk; in various equity/bond sectors.
The Funds Boat is at anchor, riding in the small waves, watching the weather and behind the breakwater barrier. To the high praise of MFO and the members, it is very difficult to find a topic to note here that has not been placed into the discussion boards. Excellence, as usual.
I have retained the following links for those who may choose to do their own holdings comparison against the fund types noted.
The first two links to Bloomberg are for their list of balanced/flexible funds; although I don't always agree with the placement of fund styles in their categories.
Bloomberg Balanced
Bloomberg Flexible
These next two links are for conservative and moderate fund leaders YTD, per MSN.
Conservative Allocation
Moderate Allocation
A reflection upon the links above. We attempt to establish a "benchmark" for our portfolio to help us "see" how our funds are performing. Aside from viewing many funds within the balanced/flexible funds rankings (the above links), a quick and dirty group of 5 funds (below) we watch for psuedo benchmarking are the following:
***Note: these week/YTD's per M*
VWINX .... + .21% week, YTD = + 1.08%
PRPFX .... - .33% week, YTD = + .86%
SIRRX ..... + .08% week, YTD = + .38%
TRRFX .... + .33% week, YTD = + 1.32%
VTENX ... + .08% week, YTD = + 1.24%
Such are the numerous battles with investments attempting to capture a decent return and minimize the risk.
We live and invest in interesting times, eh? Hey, I probably forgot something; and hopefully the words make some sense. Comments and questions always welcomed.
Good fortune to you, yours and the investments.
Take care,
Catch
---Below is what M* x-ray has attempted to sort for our portfolio, as of Nov. 1, 2012 ---
From what I find, M* has a difficult time sorting out the holdings with bond funds.
U.S./Foreign Stocks 2.9%
Bonds 92.9% ***
Other 4.2%
Not Classified 0.00%
Avg yield = 3.99%
Avg expense = .57%
***about 18% of the bond total are high yield category (equity related cousins)
---This % listing is kinda generic, by fund "name"; which doesn't always imply the holdings, eh?
-Investment grade bond funds 27.2%
-Diversified bond funds 22.4%
-HY/HI bond funds 14.5%
-Total bond funds 32.4%
-Foreign EM/debt bond funds .6%
-U.S./Int'l equity/speciality funds 2.9%
This is our current list: (NOTE: I have added a speciality grouping below for a few of fund types)
---High Yield/High Income Bond funds
FAGIX Fid Capital & Income
SPHIX Fid High Income
FHIIX.LW Fed High Income
DIHYX TransAmerica HY
---Total Bond funds
FTBFX Fid Total
PTTRX Pimco Total
---Investment Grade Bonds
ACITX Amer. Cent. TIPS Bond
DGCIX Delaware Corp. Bd
FBNDX Fid Invest Grade
FINPX Fidelity TIPS Bond
OPBYX Oppenheimer Core Bond
---Global/Diversified Bonds
FSICX Fid Strategic Income
FNMIX Fid New Markets
DPFFX Delaware Diversified
LSBDX Loomis Sayles
PONDX Pimco Income fund (steroid version)
PLDDX Pimco Low Duration (domestic/foreign)
---Speciality Funds (sectors or mixed allocation)
FRIFX Fidelity Real Estate Income (bond/equity mix)
---Equity-Domestic/Foreign
FSHOX Fidelity Select Construction & Housing

Thanks to all for the comments and advice. I am a long-time investor in several Oakmark funds and I established my largest non-retirement account position in 2005 in OAKBX, with the goal of using it to anchor my active portfolio. My intention was to hang in through a period of under-performance, but my confidence has been shaken. The bond sleeve of the fund has not done well for some time. Co-manager Studzinski retired under mysterious circumstances. MacGregor re-opens the fund and gets media coverage (why?). I have not lost money, so selling OAKBX presents tax problems. I have been looking at Villere and I have a small position in FPACX. La vie est belle.

Reply to @tgeno: And one for you which I think you may find interesting:
http://investingforaliving.wordpress.com/2012/12/26/how-life-cycle-retirement-models-impact-your-retirement/

According to the most recent prospectus (12/31/12), the net expense ratios of SUBFX and SUBYX are 0.50% and 0.80%, respectively. And SUBYX includes a dreaded 0.25% 12b-1 fee.
SUBFX continues to be available at Scottrade for minimums of $1000 and $250 in taxable and retirement accounts, respectively. I purchased a starter position inn SUBFX last week.
Kevin

Howdy,
A thank you to all who post the links, start and participate in the many fine commentaries woven into the message threads.
For those who don't know; I ramble away about this and that, at least once each week. The perspectives and investments are based, not upon a formal economic studies background; but from the "School of Hard Knocks & Studies", in which, we are still enrolled.
NOTE: This portfolio is designed for retirement, capital preservation and to stay ahead of inflation creep. This is not a buy and hold portfolio, and is subject to change on any given day; based upon perceptions of market directions. All assets in this portfolio are in tax-sheltered accounts; and any fund distributions are reinvested in the funds. Gains or losses are computed from actual account values.
While looking around.....J & E, jealously and envy. What a perfect first week of the equity market year to bring forth and stir these emotions. Neither has to be or have a negative affect upon a person. The cheap and easy advice is to use any such feeling for further insight and study. Poster Ted related to one of these emotions in another post and I blipped a note here to the subject. Good gosh, talk about J & E; who else at this board has started the year in the negative, eh? Even our straight forward 529 account of 50/50, VITPX and VBMPX is at a + 2.55% YTD. Well, our house can't support that VITPX or another broadbased U.S. equity index is on pace for a + 132% year. 'Course the scary part is that we added an equity fund this week (below). Yikes, a short term equity sell signal if there is one, from this action. We'll temper the J & E to the positive side of life, as always, and continue to sort through some of our short list of equity considerations for 2013 (below). We anticipate a reversal in both directions for some bond and equity sectors from the first week of the year moves. Worse case, if we move more monies into other positions; will likely find selling chunks of 1/3 of a given holding (averaging).
As to sector rotations below (Fidelity funds); for the past week: (Note: any given fund in any of these sectors will have varying degrees of performance based upon where the manager(s) choose to be invested and will not directly reflect upon your particular fund holdings from other vendors.) Sidenote: The average weekly return of 200 combined Fidelity retail funds across all sectors (week avg = +2.9%, YTD +1.8%).
--- U.S. equity + 3.1% through + 6.1%, week avg. = +4 .8% YTD = + ...%
--- Int'l equity + .7% through + 4.1%, week avg. = + 2.4% YTD = + ...%
--- Select eq. sectors + 1.3% through + 7.7%, week avg. = + 4.8% YTD = + ...%
--- U.S./Int'l bonds + .1% through - 3.6%, week avg. = - .67% YTD = - ...%
--- HY bonds - .10% through + .84%, week avg. = + .47% YTD = + ...%
A Decent Overview, M* 1 Month through 5 Year, Multiple Indexes
You may consider our portfolio to be quite boring, but you may be assured that it moves and bends each and every day; from forces beyond our control.
I have added a few blips related to our portfolio and market observations at the below SELLs/BUYs and Portfolio Thoughts.
SELLs/BUYs THIS PAST WEEK: = Some of both FBNDX and FINPX were sold, with proceeds moving a new fund; FSHOX and an old friend of FAGIX.
Portfolio Thoughts: Our holdings had a - .05 % move this past week. Bond funds generally ranged as follows for the week: IG, -.50%, TIPs, - 1.0%, Long term gov't, -3.5%, GNMA/MS, +.1% and high yield, +.50%. No losers in equity sectors of consequence. The U.S. equity area strongly outpaced international equity sectors. Although numerous equity sectors had some strength in the last quarter of 2012 and in particular, the last week of 2012; a few sectors are of note, although these may only be trading houses and machine plays going into the new year. Most energy funds returned less than 5% for all of 2012, and this first week of 2013 found these funds returning as much as 7.7%; and most funds reviewed found a larger % return in this first week; than they returned for all of 2012. Perhaps this will be the year of equity value plays or the 2012 dogs, however many there remains. As a group, it appears the overall winner relative to Fido funds was the small cap area.
We'll continue to watch; and do have plans, at this time, to add some equity this year, 2013. Our current short list, not in any order, of equity fund watches include: PAUDX, PAAIX, MAPIX, MACSX, SFGIX, GPGIX, ARTHX, FMIJX, FTIEX, FBALX, FTEMX, FEDDX, FIREX, FJPNX, FSVLX, FLPSX, FGHNX, PMZDX as well as some other Pimco funds, as PSTDX, etc.
Still plodding along, and we will retain the below write from previous weeks; as what we are watching, still applies.
--- commodity pricing, especially the energy and base materials areas; copper and related.
--- the $US broad basket value, and in particular against the Euro and Aussie dollar (EU zone and China/Asia uncertainties).
--- price directions of U.S. treasury's, German bunds, U.K. gilts, Japanese bonds; and continued monitoring of Spanish/Italian bond pricing/yield.
--- what we are watching to help understand the money flows: SHY, IEF, TLT, TIPZ, STPZ, LTPZ, LQD, EMB, HYG, IWM, IYT & VWO; all of which offer insights reflected from the big traders as to the quality/risk, or lack of quality/risk; in various equity/bond sectors.
The Funds Boat is at anchor, riding in the small waves, watching the weather and behind the breakwater barrier. To the high praise of MFO and the members, it is very difficult to find a topic to note here that has not been placed into the discussion boards. Excellence, as usual.
I have retained the following links for those who may choose to do their own holdings comparison against the fund types noted.
The first two links to Bloomberg are for their list of balanced/flexible funds; although I don't always agree with the placement of fund styles in their categories.
Bloomberg Balanced
Bloomberg Flexible
These next two links are for conservative and moderate fund leaders YTD, per MSN.
Conservative Allocation
Moderate Allocation
A reflection upon the links above. We attempt to establish a "benchmark" for our portfolio to help us "see" how our funds are performing. Aside from viewing many funds within the balanced/flexible funds rankings (the above links), a quick and dirty group of 5 funds (below) we watch for psuedo benchmarking are the following:
***Note: these week/YTD's per M*
VWINX .... + .96% week, YTD = + ...%
PRPFX .... + 1.22% week, YTD = + ...%
SIRRX ..... + .13% week, YTD = + ...%
TRRFX .... + 1.66% week, YTD = + ....%
VTENX ... + 1.33% week, YTD = + ...%
Such are the numerous battles with investments attempting to capture a decent return and minimize the risk.
We live and invest in interesting times, eh? Hey, I probably forgot something; and hopefully the words make some sense. Comments and questions always welcomed.
Good fortune to you, yours and the investments.
Take care,
Catch
---Below is what M* x-ray has attempted to sort for our portfolio, as of Nov. 1, 2012 ---
From what I find, M* has a difficult time sorting out the holdings with bond funds.
U.S./Foreign Stocks 2.9%
Bonds 92.9% ***
Other 4.2%
Not Classified 0.00%
Avg yield = 3.99%
Avg expense = .57%
***about 18% of the bond total are high yield category (equity related cousins)
---This % listing is kinda generic, by fund "name"; which doesn't always imply the holdings, eh?
-Investment grade bond funds 27.2%
-Diversified bond funds 22.4%
-HY/HI bond funds 14.5%
-Total bond funds 32.4%
-Foreign EM/debt bond funds .6%
-U.S./Int'l equity/speciality funds 2.9%
This is our current list: (NOTE: I have added a speciality grouping below for a few of fund types)
---High Yield/High Income Bond funds
FAGIX Fid Capital & Income
SPHIX Fid High Income
FHIIX.LW Fed High Income
DIHYX TransAmerica HY
---Total Bond funds
FTBFX Fid Total
PTTRX Pimco Total
---Investment Grade Bonds
ACITX Amer. Cent. TIPS Bond
DGCIX Delaware Corp. Bd
FBNDX Fid Invest Grade
FINPX Fidelity TIPS Bond
OPBYX Oppenheimer Core Bond
---Global/Diversified Bonds
FSICX Fid Strategic Income
FNMIX Fid New Markets
DPFFX Delaware Diversified
LSBDX Loomis Sayles
PONDX Pimco Income fund (steroid version)
PLDDX Pimco Low Duration (domestic/foreign)
---Speciality Funds (sectors or mixed allocation)
FRIFX Fidelity Real Estate Income (bond/equity mix)
---Equity-Domestic/Foreign
FSHOX Fidelity Select Construction & Housing

Reply to @kevindow: Thanks Kevin! I'll take a closer look at ABNIX. Whichever fund/funds I choose would be in a taxable account, so the $1 mil. initial investment is out of my league. But good to know about the low minimum for retirement accounts at Firstrade : )

In our portfolio, we use ABNIX for our MC/SC EM equity exposure. This fund has about 35% allocated to EM countries, which is more than adequate for my risk tolerance; HERE is the latest quarterly report. This fund has had excellent performance and attractive Upside/Downside capture ratios since the current management team took over on 10/23/2009. I purchased ABNIX at Firstrade, and according to their web site, this fund continues to be available for a minimum of $500 in retirement accounts.
Kevin

Hi forch,
First, I don't disagree with Investor's choices below, from his post to you. This is a nice spread.
Domestic: RWGFX YAFFX AKREX FLPSX BCSIX SSSFX
International: FIGFX GPIOX MAPIX
Global: GPGOX ARTHX ARTRX
NOTE: the below is with the presumption that aggressive may be for you; 85% equity and the remainder of other.
As to FLPSX: a few more notes. This equity fund = 65% U.S. exposure, with the remainder foreign, with the 3 largest holding areas of consumer discretionary at 27%, IT at 18% and healthcare at 11%; which consists of Megacap at 11%, very large cap at 3%, large cap at 11%, midcap at 42% and small cap at 33%. A most decent fund within Fido.
Domestic:
FLPSX, per above
FCNTX, (longtime proven management, somewhat defensive (although a very large fund) and middle of the road growth
Specialized sectors
FIREX, a more aggressive and int'. real estate fund
FRIFX, U.S. oriented equity/bond real estate fund.....a steady provider fund at this time
FSHOX, domestic play on construction and housing, with a mix of suppliers, builders and some REITs
International:
FTIEX, Total Int'l. Equity. Fidelity's most diversified int'l. equity fund in my opinion, with 8% U.S. exposure, 92% foreign and has about a 2% yield.
- developed markets growth and value= 65%
- " " small cap = 12%
- emerging markets = 23%
- mega cap=29%,large cap=31%, midcap=27%, small cap=12%
- financials=22%, con.staples=14%, industrials=13%, con. discretionary=10%
FEDDX, EM Discovery. Fido's look towards EM consumer markets in my opinion, and via the mid and small cap area (95%), at this time. Asia is currently about 40% of the exposure, but the fund is invested everywhere.
Bonds: for whatever you may choose to not have in equity. These include exposure to developed and emerging market equity and bonds.
-FNMIX, dollar denominated EM bonds exposure
-FTEMX, " " EM equity and bond
-FAGIX, Fido's highest risk junk bond fund with a solid long term record; and generally (during normal times :) ) will track up/down about 80% of the movement in the SP-500 index. May also range from 5-15% of equity holdings.
-SPHIX, less aggressive than FAGIX; but still in the high yield bond area, with a decent long term record
-PAUDX, a Pimco fund of funds, with a respected manager
-LSBRX, global bonds of all flavors and generally 15-20% equity exposure, too. Status on this fund for us, which we hold; would be the retirement of Dan Fuss, the long time, 79 year old manager.
Outside of Fido, I would look at any of Pimco's funds, keeping in mind that I consider their funds to be using what is likely the "new normal" for many equity and bond funds, being the steroid tools of options, futures, derivatives and all other known tools in an attempt to manage a fund's direction and stablity. I do not have a problem with this; but that those who choose any fund should be aware of potential added risk, using such tools, in the hands of the unskilled. ALSO, including non-Fido funds from Investor's list.
This is a nice tool to use at Fido Fidelity compare; and one doesn't need an acct. to use this area.
This will already be set with one fund, PAUDX. You may overwrite this ticker with another and add others for a quick and dirty scroll down list. For details about any fund, after entering a ticker symbol, click "GO". Once the fund name is loaded (blue lettering), you may then click onto the fund name to obtain more details about a fund, including prospectus info.
Pimco mutual funds list. This page may load showing "A" shares. Change the "FILTER" to "D" shares in the drop down menu to the left side of the page. Clicking upon a ticker symbol will take you to a most inclusive list of data to select about a particular fund. Lots to read, if you choose.
Okay, this is all for now. If something else pops up this weekend, I will add a separate post at this thread.
Take care and good fortune with the homework, eh?
Regards,
Catch

Yo, Ted. What's up wit dat? Catch 22 has shared his portfolio here and explicitly told us that it's a portfolio intended for capital preservation in retirement. He's holding so MANY different funds, it would leave me overwhelmed. But forget that. I don't see why he should not be able to just come in here and contribute whatever he feels like offering, or asking, or evaluating or sharing or..... whatever. If you're just trying to get a giggle out of the rest of us, you're being much too blunt.

I think there will be down days after the recent rally, but the direction continues to be up, despite negatives.
I was a little astonished to read that someone like CNBC frequent guest Dennis Gartman, who's so vanilla (which makes him perfect to be on CNBC constantly) and doesn't usually make more extreme statements said this yesterday: "Owning stocks at this point is rather like owning stocks in Zimbabwe several years ago – but remember as the Zimbabwean dollar plunged, the stock market soared. We may have the same sort of thing,"he said."
I don't think we're going to go full Zimbabwe (and I doubt Gartman does either), but - over at least the short and medium term, there's going to be volatility but I think the market heads higher as the current easy monetary policies around the world (I mean, look at Japan - I think Japan has a lot of negatives unfortunately - demographics, etc, but if they are going to "reflate at all costs", their market is going higher and I continue to own a little Japan really only due to that theme, not on a fundamental basis) continue and equities (not across the board, but some sectors especially) will stay ahead of inflation as currency debasement continues.
I'll also highlight something that Marc Faber said not that long ago and that - with the way things are - I agree with: "Look at the history, for example, of Germany, for the last 100 years. They had World War I. They had the hyper-inflation in World War II. The bond-holders got wiped out three times. If you owned Siemens, and you still own Siemens today, it was not a fantastic investment, but at least you still have something. You were not wiped out. I think that in equities you will be better off because you have an ownership in a company, than by being the lenders to companies, and the lenders, especially, to governments."
I understand the risk and volatility involved is not appealing, but I think there are lower volatility ways for conservative/retired investors to have some equity exposure, such as the low volatility S & P ETF (SPLV), which also provides a monthly dividend. Not a recommendation, but you can own a Walgreens (WAG) that is generally boring and will serve an increasing population getting to retirement age (and which yields 3% or so.) Or the core Abbott Labs (ABT), which just spun-off the R & D portion. I'm not saying invest in Abbott, but that's a good example of an enjoyably dull stock that would be a good choice for a more conservative and/or retirement age investor. P & G and Unilever would be other ideas.
Boring stuff that provides core needs and are stable businesses that have been around for ages and one reinvests the dividends.
Marketfield (MFLDX) remains a successful long-short offering, as well. It's going to lose money in a 2008 style situation, but has displayed skill at dialing up and down risk.
...and not saying that everyone should be 100% equities, either. But I think even those in retirement age should have *some* exposure, and how much is up to them.
"Also, that those holding short positions were forced to unload those positions."
And you're going to continue to get rolling short covering because you get instances where a rumor comes out and the market is lifted 200 points or the fiscal cliff "deal", which I don't think is really all that good for many people, but the market was thrilled something was done and the market zips higher. If people want to short to hedge a bit and maybe are successful in doing so, great, but I wouldn't short heavily into continued easy monetary policy and any hedging should be short-term in nature. Overall though, some of the last few days is short covering, but there will be more instances of it as the can will continue to be kicked whenever problems come up and rumors suddenly take markets higher (only to be denied right after the close.)
"Today was a real rip-tear for equity markets and one may suspect a further transistion to Asia again."
I'll continue to move more investment to EM.
"Or do some feel there will be a straight line rally for the month of January and beyond?"
Nothing investment-wise moves in a straight line, certainly. There will be volatility and down periods. However, you have this mentality that debt doesn't matter and massive spending as far as the eye can see is fine. If you believe that politicians - once on that path - will get off of it (Sen. Schumer to Bernanke: "Get to work, Mr. Chairman" - http://www.zerohedge.com/news/chuck-schumer-ctrl-p-get-work-mr-chairman-benefit-my-donors), I'll respectfully disagree. In this environment, I want to have a significant allocation to real assets and companies that provide core needs (and companies that provide a value to consumers and/or businesses - even something like Costco.)
Additionally, I continue to think that people have to be diversified globally.