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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Wifey's (new) Retirement Plan
    Hi Max. I can't beat the great advise you have gotten so far on this, but I will add a big endorsement for the Target Date funds. Especially because of what you said about your wife (and you) wanting to simplify her investment. In contrast to what others have said, I believe it is not easy to beat these all-in-one retirement funds if you are not educated or interested in investing. I don't necessarily mean you or your wife by that statement. I mean the average-joe who is investing for their retirement. I, in fact, use the TRP 60:40 mix target fund as a benchmark for my portfolio and I can tell you it is a consistent investment - and not that easy to beat.
    So I would suggest to keep it simple. I know from your posts you are a believer in Asia being the future. How about just 2 funds, the target date fund with a diversified equity/bond ratio that she is comfortable with and MACSX for that Asian spice?
    You've gotten really good advice from these nice people. Good luck to her and you.
  • Wifey's (new) Retirement Plan
    Oops, SFGIX is not tax-sheltered, either, among my holdings.
    I see what you mean about front-loads being waived in a retirement vehicle, yes. On the other hand, a close friend trusted a colleague who also was licensed to be a stock broker/financial advisor. He worked for or with an investment group connected to Smith Barney, but then they were bought-out, and my friend's account went to the new outfit as a matter of course. Though it was a 403b, this particular investment advisor must not have registered the thing that way, because his statements all clearly listed the 5.75% FRONT-LOAD on each monthly contribution!
  • Wifey's (new) Retirement Plan
    Thank you both. I appreciate the cogent, brief but precise information... Another thought that came to me, and which my wife is willing to do is to simply not use this plan at all, and decide upon X amount from her bi-weekly checks and invest it in our existing portfolio, which is now spread out further than it was just a year ago. We have but TWO non-retirement funds: MACSX and DLFNX.
    Without necessarily intending to do so, we've ended-up with a barbell. The heavy ends are MAPIX and PREMX. In between---not necessarily in order of size, is: DLFNX, MACSX, MAINX, SFGIX, MAPOX, MSCFX, and TRAMX.
    PREMX is 41.18% of total. MAPIX is 33.46% of total. None of the others is more than 3.56% of total. We could just use her portion to even things out, what? And these are all standard items, not peculiar, annuity-wrapped things with hidden, non-transparent fees and their own arcane fund ticker symbols and all of that. We know what we've got. It may be simpler and wiser to simply add to what we've got?..... I've shared the contents of my portfolio here numerous times, but there it is again, for reference. Thank you for the informative, thoughtful replies.
  • Wifey's (new) Retirement Plan
    Max,
    There are different types of annuities. The retirement products provided by insurance companies typically wrap mutual funds in an annuity in a 403b 457 etc. That means in addition to mutual funds you will be paying some wrapping fee. Now, it would be better if there was not wrapping but that is the nature of the beast. For that reason, your retirement plan will probably will not be referring these funds by the mutual fund tickers but internal codes or numbers. They will be publishing the performance record (not necessarily every day) as well.
    Secondly, do not be so afraid of loaded funds in retirement plans. Typically (but not always) these funds are provided as load waived but wrapped with extra annuity layer. Explicitly ask about it.
    Now even if you think you know the mutual funds in the list, they will probably not exactly tract the returns of the underlying mutual fund due to the wrapping charges hidden in the ER. But it could also be that they may be selling a bit of each fund you have invested and extract fees directly each month. You need to read the offer statements and other prospectus in detail. You might be provided a summary prospectus but if you ask you might get a detailed one.
    You can simply invest in a "Vanguard Target Retirement" and it would not be a bad choice. If load waived Oppenheimer Developing Markets fund is not a bad choice to invest a portion. Conestoga Small Cap is a good fund that I considered investing. C&S Realty is a good REIT fund. Oakmark International and PIMCO Tot. Return are choices to look.
  • Wifey's (new) Retirement Plan
    Max,
    A blip before I must travel the roads.
    It is not uncommon for a retirement plan, and it seems in particular; a non-profit organization to have the retirement plan wrapped inside of an annuity. It would be nice to find a more normal path for a 401k/403b plan; like via Fidelity and such.....but that is another story, eh?
    The one area that may be common to such plans is that there may be an additional 1% fee built into the plan and perhaps slightly higher fund fees.
    Any 403b (annuity) program I am familiar with does not carry "A" share class fees; as these are waived. Logging into the site to review the plan should provide all of the fee structure you need to read. I question whether or that your brother is paying a 5% inside of this structure. I would have to read this for myself, in black and white.
    The "annuity" should not be as you would normally regard as the type purchased by an individual. Your wife would be able to "rollover" any amounts in the account at a future date into an IRA.
    In name, even a traditional defined benefit pension plan is an annuity for purposes of disposition of the monies at a future retirement date from the employers account with whomever manages the account.
    I checked Brightscope, but they only list 401k plans. Check the full list and all associated documents or have your wife obtain the plan documents from the hospital.
    Got to run.
    Catch
  • Wifey's (new) Retirement Plan
    This is a very long query. Thanks for your patience in getting through it, and for your input. Fund Alarm and MFO have never steered me wrong. I'm retired with a reduced pension, 58 right now. She's 39 and JUST started her first legitimate "career" type job at one of the two big hospitals in town. ("Environmental Services." We refuse to call it simply "housekeeping," because we are politically correct, and EVERYONE is a valued Specialist.) She has been working full-time hours, but now is cut to 80% time: she was hired brand-new just a little over a month ago as part-time. She will do well. She can work hard and thrive and impress the bosses in such an environment, unlike myself. Besides, once she smiles, you BELONG to her. (Grin.)
    My own 403b was always wide open and self directed. I chose funds. My luck choosing stocks is abysmal. Wife's plan is structured as an ANNUITY. It says so on p. 1 of the little sign-up booklet. My mom had one, but it's run its course and is now past-term, so it's just a memory. As for me, I am innately afraid of annuities. All I hear is that the extortion fees ("administration" fees) and other expenses related to owning an annuity are crazy nuts, way too high to be worth the investment. I imagine approaching Annuity Universe like the souls in Dante's "Inferno," reading the sign over the gate: "Abandon hope, all ye who enter here."
    ...But the menu selections within the annuity include Vanguard Target Retirement funds for many years into the future; and there are open-ended mutual funds. I will steer clear of front-load funds, like Mainstay. (My brother works higher-up for the same outfit, Baystate Health Systems in Springfield. He's in a Mainstay fund with a 5% load. No, thanks!)
    Options: 1) choose your own ingredients and go. (Including Vanguard Target-Date Retirement funds)
    2) Allow them (MassMutual) to diversify you by selecting a pre-packaged low, medium or high risk sampling.
    3) keep the money in short-term instruments like Money Market.
    I don't mind choosing from among the 19 listed offerings. Of course, the booklet doesn't even say a word, for the sake of uninitiated rookies, about front-load, no-load, higher vs. lower fees. I will be choosing from among the no-load choices available. I recognize many of them, but not all. I'm going to do some homework, soon.
    MY BIGGEST QUESTION and my biggest fear is this: HOW does this WORK? If the investment choices are all mutual funds, why not allow employees to CHOOSE funds and just get going, under the 403b banner? Why is the package created to BE an annuity? By the way, I'm surprised NOT to find any of MassMutual's own funds on the list. That's OK by me.
    Among the options I recognize at first glance are:
    TRP New Era
    Cohen & Steers Realty
    Oppenheimer Dev. Mkts (no way, Jose!)
    Oakmark International
    Conestoga Small-cap
    Easton Vance Small-cap
    Vanguard Treasuries
    "Select" PIMCO Tot. Rtn.
    I understand that an annuity provides guaranteed income for a TERM, or another sort promises to provide income for LIFE... The ANNUITY aspect here has me spooked. Anyone else with experience in this regard? Thank you.
  • Mak'in a list, check'in it twice...no, make that thrice.....
    Mak'in a list and check'in it thrice......with the understanding that "if" the "cliff" thing does not "burn down the house"; of course, which could be a non-event; as the Mayan calendar thing hits December 21 !!! Heck, congress and the White House folks may not have to make any final decisions, afterall.
    I digress.
    Account changes are likely coming to this house in early, 2013.
    --- Current funds that will likely leave; and their monies having to find a new home:
    DIHYX, FHIIX, PTTRX, ACITX, DGCIX, OPBYX, PLDDX and DPFFX
    --- Existing funds that could receive some of these monies:
    FAGIX, SPHIX, FINPX, FSICX, FNMIX, FRIFX
    --- Existing funds that may be reduced or otherwise:
    FTBFX, FBNDX
    --- Funds in consideration (the short list)
    PAUIX and/or PAUDX / PASDX, PMZDX or PMZIX
    .......also building an equity list, which remains a work in progress, and likely more oriented towards U.S.
    With only a bah-zillion choices, we should be finished by the end of February :) :
    MACSX, SFGIX, GPGOX, GPGIX, ARTHX, ARTKX, FMIJX, VWINX, FBALX
    Ok, that's it. Just writing "outloud".
    'Course, your input is always welcomed for a house in retirement. Ya, we know; most folks consider our portfolio to be a bit "lite" on the pure equity side of life.
    Take care of you and yours,
    Catch
  • A guest column at Amazon.com - and the world's tiniest picture of me
    Reply to @catch22: I was hopeful that folks might wander by and learn a bit. I can spot-check tomorrow; the Analytics program allows us to see where folks are coming from. While about 100 people a month go from here to Amazon, we've rarely noted the reverse.
    As to bonds, I don't know about the timing but I can't find much attraction to them, and haven't for a while. My portfolios tend toward emerging markets and global debt, including high yield global, called bonds, some floating rate stuff, rather than simple investment grade debt. In the non-retirement stuff, I've got money in Matthews Asia Strategic Income (Ms. Kong was very persuasive), RPHYX, Northern Global Tactical Asset Allocation (successor to Leuthold with 12% in a broad bond index) and T. Rowe Price Spectrum Income.
    David
  • You Bought An Annuity. Now What ?
    Immediate fixed annuities have a place in some folks' retirement arsenal. But as was already noted, current yields are not attractive enough to make this kind of guaranteed income doable. That will change, of course. It is still amazing to me how many con artists, (oops, I mean salespersons) there are ready to sell high-priced and high-expenses products that are tied in some way to the market that "guarantee" 5% or 6% or better. And these folks prey on seniors who think their bank or insurance agent would never put them in something that is not right for them. It is, course, just right for the folks who sell them and their companies. Fortunately we have been able to get money back for a few people who came to us right after they were sold one of these, prior to the refund expiration date.
  • December 2012 update
    Just outstanding David.
    Very much enjoy December post. Rich with content.
    PIMCO is so utterly impressive. Funny though how Real Retirement or Retirement Target funds never seem to inspire much.
    Glad to see note about Redleaf's Whitebox. If it helps, Schwab offers institutional customers (eg., 401k) no load entry, with lowest fee, $2500 basic, or $1000 IRA minimums.
    Glad too to see note about interesting Bretton Fund.
    Will look forward to discussion with Andrew Foster of SeaFarer, as well as with Matt Moran and Dan Johnson of ASTON River Road.
    Hey, in addition to looking at long-short alternatives, you might look into risk-parity approach, which Aness' shop AQR seems to be executing quite well with AQRIX, for example. I like how they seek multiple markets, daily, based on pre-defined volatility level.
    Not sure I like idea of sister sites, but I'm getting old. Are you sure? Seems we are just now starting to achieve critical mass. Perhaps we could bulk-up a bit, grow our AUM, before expanding...
    In any case, thanks again for doing what you do and all the best during the holiday season.
    PS. I'm heavy RNSIX, which is proxy to being heavy Gundlach. Let's trust that if he can forecast the impending instability in traditional fixed income holdings, he can manage us through it.
  • Bond Investor Gundlach Sees "Kaboom" Ahead
    I thank you all for the various responses. I won't panic. ..... Investor, I'm already holding the lion's share of all my total stuff in a tax-deferred retirement vehicle. (Trad. or Rollover IRA.) When I bought-into DLFNX, I wanted to deliberately keep that money available without penalty for any early withdrawal. You're right, of course. And yet, I'm glad I own shares in that fund. I think I shall not play with it now... Just watch the divs. grow.
  • Bond Investor Gundlach Sees "Kaboom" Ahead
    P.S. I hold it as a basic, ordinary, taxable account, not a retirement thing.
  • How Did I Miss This One? (Aberdeen Global Small Cap and a bit of a Seafarer discussion)
    Have the WT rep contact the mutual fund trading desk which should confirm that there is no minimum in a retirement account. If that fails, ABNIX continues to be available in Firstrade retirement accounts for a $500 minimum.
    Kevin
  • The Return of a Star Fund Manager (Berkowitz/Fairholme)
    Reply to @ron: Ouch, on the speculation part, and a bit unfair I think, based on the case studies Berkowitz presents when taking his positions. Even the implied Heebner comparison is a stretch...who trades at frenetic speeds, if I remember correctly.
    WaltJ paints the right picture.
    But I certainly understand that selecting a more volatile fund, like FAIRX or FAAFX or even FOCIX, which has extraordinary yield, depends on desired investment horizon. About 6-7 years ago, I had more than 50% of my portfolio in FAIRX. Today, that honor is held by the much more steady-eddy (I trust) RNSIX, since retirement is imminent.
    But I still hold Fairholme.
    BTW, over the last 10 years, a solid, if not perfect, equity fund like DODGX managed to perform comparable to market. Both FAIRX and CGMFX beat, but the former did so with much less volatility and a tenth the turnover. The data:
    image
    And, if we dare go back a little further, say to 1999 (just prior to tech bubble pop), Heebner beats Berkowitz who beats Gunn...but these three active traders beat the market, as shown below. If past trends at all predict the future, I pick the blue line.
    image
  • Our Funds Boat, Week + .06%, YTD + 11.67%.....That's More Like It, Eh?.....11-25-12
    Howdy Charles,
    You noted:
    " I know the composition is for "near retirement, capital preservation and to stay ahead of inflation creep," but surprised to see it virtually devoid of equity."
    >>>>>The M* breakdown of the portfolio "thinks" the mix is about 1.9% equity. There are times, it appears, when M* can't quite determine a full accurate reading. We are okay with this and are pleased that we are able to have a view of the mix from their angle. We do have some equity slant from FAGIX, which at times may run as high as 20% equity holdings and currently reads about 8%. FRIFX is a conservative real estate fund and generally holds about a 40% equity/60% bond mix. LSBDX may hold up to about 20% equities. The HY bond funds are generally cousins to equity as related to market moves. For 2012, an ongoing review has shown our HY funds are currently close to returns with the S&P 500 indexes. This, of course, has varied throughout the year, too. As the markets have tossed and turned for 2012, one week will find support from the above funds noted; while another week finds support from the bond funds more tilted towards the investment grade sectors. A slow and sideways portfolio mix attempting to generate some continued capital appreciation from bond pricing, while throwing off yield; generally paid and reinvested monthly.
    "Maybe it really is a reluctant bull, if not "A Bull Market In Fear."
    >>>>> We were not a house of bonds prior to June, 2008; with only about 10% in bonds at that time. We have held up to 30% in equity at various times beginning in 2009 and through 2012. As to the "reluctant bull"; our portfolio feels like an investment orphan at times, as so much news is oriented towards owning equity to move forward with one's portfolio growth. We do not disagree with this notion; and must be aware of which equity sectors may benefit going forward, whether broad equity markets remain "sideways" or not. Not unlike bond sectors, there are always equity sectors that may remain more favorable than others for any number of reasons. This is what all of we investors are attempting to discover, eh? I can not imagine that our portfolio will remain naked in the equity sector going forward, regardless of retirement. We will have to continue to obtain capital appreciation from one area or another, or both. However, we feel at this time; "that this time is different" and although historical investment charts are of benefit to study, this is not my parent's, nor my generation's (age 65) market place. Things have changed and sorting a forward investment path has become more difficult; in my/our opinion.
    "I used to think that owning an equity share was owning a piece of a company. Has that changed? Gives me pause to think nobody wants to own companies anymore, just their debt. Has owning debt become a proxy for owning the company?"
    >>>>>I don't think this has changed. Equity is still owning a part of a company; and a company's debt (bond issues) is money one is lending to a company, for hopefully; a well thought plan. Utimately, one could hold both areas for a given company with buying some of their equity, as well as some of their bonds, too. I suppose this becomes a "balanced" portfolio. I will not disagree, as has been noted here in discussion, and with linked articles; that too many folks likely do not understand the full implication of market forces that can throw their bond holdings into a negative direction. Our house is aware of this; but it will be the timing and/or vision of when a more permanent trend has begun that could cause losses in some bond holdings. What the retiring boomer generation (reportedly 10,000/day) is going to do with their monies will likely have a fairly large impact on some investment areas for the next 20 years.
    As to equity and bonds, and an example; we try to view these investment areas in this fashion. We and 1,000 friends in our area have pooled our money; and are well aware of the quality or lack of, the surrounding 25 mile radius of homes for sale. We feel we know the neighborhoods and trends affecting these areas. We decide that some of the homes are worth an outright purchase (equity, growth and/or value) for future monetary growth; while other homes do not meet this criteria; we do know folks who are willing and able to do what is needed to get homes in more marginal areas into shape for sale or rent. These folks have the qualifications and desire, but do not have ready access to, or the needed money. We lend (bonds, some will be investment grade and some will be junk status) these folks some of our money for a price.....interest rate/yield. In both cases, we hope all of the this works out to our monetary benefit, with a psuedo balanced investment portfolio.
    Lastly, and something we need to continue to watch; is the ongoing bond flood. As Robin might say to Batman, "Holy crap, Batman; the ECB is issuing bonds to buy bonds !!!". Well, this is taking place in too many places (central banks/govt's) around the globe; including this country. I don't like this at all. There is a limit, eh? The whole thing is like a realtime and ongoing story from a "Twilight Zone" mini-series.
    It would be much easier to pursue this with a real conversation at a table at the "mutual fund cafe". Hopefully, I was able to place some of the thinking properly, into the words here.
    Take care,
    Catch
  • Grandchildren
    Reply to @Charles: Howdy. I guess I'm thinking less of asset class performance here than of investor behavior. It looks like this might be a one fund portfolio or a few funds with relatively light supervision. And while the recipients are young, the time horizon isn't huge. Alpha hopes to bequeath these no later than the time that (the eldest?) recipients reaches 25. While WAMVX or SFGIX (which I mention just because they represent my riskier non-retirement investments) might well be splendid choices for reasonably seasoned investors, for a small slice of a larger portfolio or for a black-box retirement portfolio with 20 years to grow, I was less sure of them as a grandparent's gift to a 20-something, "to do with as they like" (retire student debt, buy a home, start a family?).
    But what do you do if the portfolio is small and likely to be static? I guess my first impulse is risk management. I keep thinking about the T Rowe Price research on asset allocation and risk. If you go from a conservative portfolio with 20% stock exposure to a balanced portfolio with 60%, two things happen: (1) your average annual returns increase by 1.9% from 7.4 to 9.3% and (2) your volatility explodes - you quadruple the number of losing years you'd expect to experience, you deepen your average loss in a losing year from 0.5% to 6.8% and you double your standard deviation. (That original study was 2004, of the period 1955-2003.)
    And so that was the balance: if I thought I could get 7.4% and feel like my legacy (or my inheritance, depend on your perspective) was pretty secure, I'd take it.
    As ever,
    David
  • Grandchildren
    dear alpha... for children ages 1-12 to hold? i would go with at least 80% equity. the cheapest kind. something like vanguard total market. i like many funds offered, but they are for us -- those well over 40 and those near or at retirement age. you don't invest like that for children, especially since you mentioned that the educational accounts are separately provided for. being in the industry that offers many asset allocation, alternative and income funds -- those in vogue currently -- i see the asset management professionals are piling into the cheapest equity funds for their children's/grandchildren's accounts. do as they do, not as they say.
  • Our Funds Boat, Week + .06%, YTD + 11.67%.....That's More Like It, Eh?.....11-25-12
    Thanks Catch. A good year indeed.
    Think this is first time I really looked at the details, sad to say.
    I know the composition is for "near retirement, capital preservation and to stay ahead of inflation creep," but surprised to see it virtually devoid of equity.
    Maybe it really is a reluctant bull, if not "A Bull Market In Fear."
    I used to think that owning an equity share was owning a piece of a company. Has that changed? Gives me pause to think nobody wants to own companies anymore, just their debt. Has owning debt become a proxy for owning the company?
    In any case, very much appreciate you sharing results for your boat each week. I will be following more closely going forward, and hoping always it is going full steam.
  • Our Funds Boat, Week + .06%, YTD + 11.67%.....That's More Like It, Eh?.....11-25-12
    Howdy,
    A thank you to all who post the links, start and participate in the many fine commentaries woven into the message threads.
    For those who don't know; I ramble away about this and that, at least once each week.
    NOTE: For those who visit MFO, this portfolio is designed for near retirement, capital preservation and to stay ahead of inflation creep. This is not a buy and hold portfolio, and is subject to change on any given day; based upon perceptions of market directions. All assets in this portfolio are in tax-sheltered accounts; and any fund distributions are reinvested in the funds. Gains or losses are computed from actual account values.
    While looking around.....That's more like it, eh? Good old November has been an interesting investment month. U.S. equites, broadly noting; started the month a bit negative and had two weeks of a -1.5% and -2.2% and bounced up +3.8% last week. Our broad based bond mix has been stuck between +11.72 and +11.51% YTD for the month. I will suppose that an equity rally through year end could add 10% to equities and shave no more than 1% from our bond mix. The "fiscal cliff" thingy will likely find a blended fix; but I don't have a clue as to the blend; nor the ramifications upon investment sectors. Some U.S. companies have issued special distributions to allow investors an opportunity to perhaps obtain a lower tax rate for 2012 monies, versus potential rate changes for 2013. I am sure many companies still remain in stall mode relative to capital spending plans, too. All and all, quite a mess of unknowns remain. "That's more like it", should place the very best of traders and machine trades into the money round; as both may thrive from volatility. We continue to watch the housing/construction sector; which has already had a good yearly run. No more time remains on my personal clock, at this time; finding a short report.
    The data/numbers below have been updated.
    As to sector rotations below (Fidelity funds); for the past week: (Note: any given fund in any of these sectors will have varing degrees of performance based upon where the manager(s) choose to be invested and will not directly reflect upon your particular fund holdings from other vendors.) Sidenote: The average weekly return of 200 combined Fidelity retail funds across all sectors (week avg = + 2.4%, YTD +11.68%).
    --- U.S. equity + 3.0% through + 4.9%, week avg. = + 3 .8% YTD = + 14.5%
    --- Int'l equity + .8% through + 5.9%, week avg. = + 3.5% YTD = + 13.6%
    --- Select eq. sectors - .05% through + 1.3%, week avg. = + 3.8% YTD = + 14.1%
    --- U.S./Int'l bonds - 1.63% through + .68%, week avg. = - .32% YTD = + 3.76%
    --- HY bonds + .10% through + .86%, week avg. = + .44% YTD = + 11.6%
    A Decent Overview, M* 1 Month through 5 Year, Multiple Indexes
    You may consider our portfolio to be quite boring, but you may be assured that it moves and bends each and every day; from forces beyond our control.
    I have added a few blips related to our portfolio and market observations at the below SELLs/BUYs and Portfolio Thoughts.
    SELLs/BUYs THIS PAST WEEK: = NONE.

    Portfolio Thoughts:
    Our holdings had a + .06 % move this past week. We'll continue to watch; but do not have plans at this time, to enter into equity areas.
    b> Still plodding along, and we will retain the below write from previous weeks; as what we are watching, still applies.

    --- commodity pricing, especially the energy and base materials areas; copper and related.
    --- the $US broad basket value, and in particular against the Euro and Aussie dollar (EU zone and China/Asia uncertainties).
    --- price directions of U.S. treasury's, German bunds, U.K. gilts, Japanese bonds; and continued monitoring of Spanish/Italian bond pricing/yield.
    --- what we are watching to help understand the money flows: SHY, IEF, TLT, TIPZ, STPZ, LTPZ, LQD, EMB, HYG, IWM, IYT & VWO; all of which offer insights reflected from the big traders as to the quality/risk, or lack of quality/risk; in various equity/bond sectors.
    The Funds Boat is at anchor, riding in the small waves, watching the weather and behind the breakwater barrier. To the high praise of MFO and the members, it is very difficult to find a topic to note here that has not been placed into the discussion boards. Excellence, as usual.
    I have retained the following links for those who may choose to do their own holdings comparison against the fund types noted.
    The first two links to Bloomberg are for their list of balanced/flexible funds; although I don't always agree with the placement of fund styles in their categories.
    Bloomberg Balanced
    Bloomberg Flexible
    These next two links are for conservative and moderate fund leaders YTD, per MSN.
    Conservative Allocation
    Moderate Allocation
    A reflection upon the links above. We attempt to establish a "benchmark" for our portfolio to help us "see" how our funds are performing. Aside from viewing many funds within the balanced/flexible funds rankings (the above links), a quick and dirty group of 5 funds (below) we watch for psuedo benchmarking are the following:
    ***Note: these week/YTD's per M*
    VWINX .... + .91% week, YTD = + 9.42%
    PRPFX .... + 1.86% week, YTD = + 6.96%
    SIRRX ..... + .21% week, YTD = + 6.73%
    TRRFX .... + 1.57% week, YTD = + 9.66%
    VTENX ... + 1.33% week, YTD = + 8.74%

    Such are the numerous battles with investments attempting to capture a decent return and minimize the risk.
    We live and invest in interesting times, eh? Hey, I probably forgot something; and hopefully the words make some sense. Comments and questions always welcomed.
    Good fortune to you, yours and the investments.
    Take care,
    Catch
    ---Below is what M* x-ray has attempted to sort for our portfolio, as of Nov. 1, 2012 ---
    From what I find, M* has a difficult time sorting out the holdings with bond funds.
    U.S./Foreign Stocks 1.9%
    Bonds 93.9% ***
    Other 4.2%
    Not Classified 0.00%
    Avg yield = 3.99%
    Avg expense = .57%
    ***about 18% of the bond total are high yield category (equity related cousins)

    ---This % listing is kinda generic, by fund "name"; which doesn't always imply the holdings, eh?
    -Investment grade bond funds 28.2%
    -Diversified bond funds 22.4%
    -HY/HI bond funds 14.5%
    -Total bond funds 32.4%
    -Foreign EM/debt bond funds .6%
    -U.S./Int'l equity/speciality funds 1.9%
    This is our current list: (NOTE: I have added a speciality grouping below for a few of fund types)
    ---High Yield/High Income Bond funds
    FAGIX Fid Capital & Income
    SPHIX Fid High Income
    FHIIX.LW Fed High Income
    DIHYX TransAmerica HY
    ---Total Bond funds
    FTBFX Fid Total
    PTTRX Pimco Total
    ---Investment Grade Bonds
    ACITX Amer. Cent. TIPS Bond
    DGCIX Delaware Corp. Bd
    FBNDX Fid Invest Grade
    FINPX Fidelity TIPS Bond
    OPBYX Oppenheimer Core Bond
    ---Global/Diversified Bonds
    FSICX Fid Strategic Income
    FNMIX Fid New Markets
    DPFFX Delaware Diversified
    LSBDX Loomis Sayles
    PONDX Pimco Income fund (steroid version)
    PLDDX Pimco Low Duration (domestic/foreign)
    ---Speciality Funds (sectors or mixed allocation)
    FRIFX Fidelity Real Estate Income (bond/equity mix)
    ---Equity-Domestic/Foreign
    NONE outright, with the exception of equities held inside some of the above funds.
  • Time to do some buying? A Poll...
    Hi Scott: "Hussman eventually be proven right" - Depends on your definition of right and how we measure that. HSGFX must be close to 15 years old now. If it's able to capture - say 70% of the return of S&P, Wilshire 5000, or other widely followed indexes over that span with its inherent lower volatility, than maybe that would equal being right. Am highly skeptical that will be the case. Fifteen years seems to me a fair measure - being equal to about half the time a typical wage earner might be expected to contribute to his or her retirement plan.
    Re the "Dutch Boy" - Always enjoyed Hussman's writings (aside from some of the technical ****). I think both he and Bill Gross do a real nice job here. In this case, we might apply a couple other allegories to characterize his recent investment calls: "Boy who cried wolf" & "The sky is falling" come to mind.
    "I'm surprised to hear him acknowledge printing billions ..." Yep - agree with you. But isn't inflation pretty much the natural course of paper (fiat) currencies throughout history - with few exceptions (perhaps modern day Japan?). If you have to bet on one long term trend, the odds favor inflation.
    Re the market: Agree - caution is advised. - If the numbers hold, 2012 looks to be a pretty decent year for U.S indexes - especially if compared to current yields on cash or short term paper.