Howdy,
Again, a thank you to all who post the links and also start and participate in the many fine commentaries woven into the message threads.
For those who don't know; I ramble away about this and that, at least once each week.
NOTE: For those who visit MFO, this portfolio is designed for retirement, capital preservation and to stay ahead of inflation creep; if and when it returns. This is not a buy and hold portfolio, and is subject to change on any given day; based upon perceptions of market directions. All assets in this portfolio are in tax-sheltered accounts; and any fund distributions are reinvested in the funds. Gains or losses are computed from actual account values.
While looking around..... Apparently, this house in reality, is running a market neutral fund. :) I jabbered enough about my market perspective and the challenges in the PRE funds boat note on the 30th; this section, this week will be about the "what to do now" aspect of our portfolio; if indeed any actions are required. A first note that M* indicates that the portfolio has an overall yield of 4.27%. This write generally reflects thoughts with our bond holdings, being the biggest chuck of our money; but must be countered with the actions of the equity holdings and forward directions, and in particular, our high yield/income bond funds with their more related linkage to actions of the equity cousins. A non-scientific look at HY bonds vs equity actions since August 1, shows that for every 1% decline in a broad U.S. equity index, one would find about a 1/3% price decline in the HY area. This changed this past Friday, Sept 30; when HY price declines just about matched the decline of pricing in the broad equity area; and finally pushed our HY funds to mostly negatives for YTD. 'Course this action has caused yields to increase to higher and tempting levels; but at the cost of lost NAV. A few considerations of cause and effect in the next 6-12 months; as I still feel that the complex nature of "fixes" for the U.S. and Europe will remain entangled by and with political and legal (in the case of Europe) problems with the likely overhang of whether any "fixes" or decisions are credible and/or proper to the point of being real fixes:
1. The last quarter of the year for the fund managers is here and now. Some equity fund mgrs are in the "rock and hard place" zone, somewhat locked in place by the prospectus. Some bond funds are also similarly stuck. So, as usual; one must decide the who, what and where of matching a fund type to what one feels may be the market actions of the next 6-12 months. This is where the "flex" (in and out of a sector, without having to wait until the end of the trading day) of using an etf fund is of value; and no less, the ability via prospectus and finely tuned manager(s) decisions for a traditional mutual fund.
2. Pension funds: These folks will always maintain a core bond postion of some flavor or another. Based upon their internal forecasts for forward equity actions; and their need to generate cash flow, I anticipate accelerated bond yield chasing, i.e.; reworking and re-allocation of their bond sectors. This may bode well for support in the HY and other bond sectors.
3. Mutual funds: The same thinking applies to some bond funds. The "late to the party" crowd are moving more monies to U.S. bond issues.....Pimco, TCW and others. I suppose they have become believers to the serious problems. I sure don't know how Mr. Gross and co. missed this move, being Pimco gave birth to the "new normal".
4. The continued strength of the U.S. dollar; albeit, perhaps only for the next 6-12 months does indeed affect values of funds. If and when this does flip downward again, one's dollar will buy more of whatever that is not denominated in $US; if you catch the near top, before the down move.
So, what to do? Monday will tell this house more; but we may sell down some percentage (25%) of HY) and move the monies to a more flexible bond fund to allow for the decisions of management among what type of bonds to hold. We have no reason to "whine" about our HY/HI holdings, as these have been held since May/June of 2009 and have paid us well. 'Course this has not worked very well with having Pimco manage our holdings in PTTRX; and sadly, this is the only bond fund available in one retirement plan. So, we are stuck with this for now. Perhaps strange to some, is why we would hold FSAGX in such an economic environment. Our house will place this holding in line with the need to have insurance on the house and cars. The money is there for some protection that may never be needed; but may be foolish to "not" have. As to our current equity holdings, well; a real head scratcher with these, as our percentage is not very large, but continued down moves of these will still "nickel and dime" our losses. Fido Select Auto, Fido commodity holdings and CAMAX are the only real big dogs, YTD. Auto is in play as to some of the companies held that support select areas (Auto Zone/related) as many folks are going to fix and not buy good used or new vehicles. We are also "betting" on earnings of auto companies with sales in the asian markets. Fido commodities fund is a tough one, too. We still feel that the equity holdings here are being beat up with the rest of the equity markets, but not for any real and proper reason. Yes, some of the holdings are related to real demands in some sectors....copper, etc.; which have real uses in growing economies; but there is a "real" base of use and need for the energy and agriculture sectors of this fund.
I thought this would be a more clear cut and easier write, that this house was just going to sell this or that; and move the monies to such and such fund(s). A weekend of pondering this has not brought forth a more clear vision. :):):) I sure as heck hope I/we have not just added to the "confusion" of the markets. I suppose that this house can not whine too much for our YTD performance; but, with what we are invested in, the ride down has been much slower for the past 2 months; but this portfolio also takes much more time to recover to higher YTD levels.
Such are the numerous battles with investments attempting to capture a decent return and minimize the risk.
We live and invest in interesting times, eh?
Hey, I probably forgot something; and hopefully the words make some sense.
Comments and questions always welcomed.
Good fortune to you, yours and the investments.
Take care,
Catch
SELLs/BUYs THIS PAST WEEK:
NONE
Portfolio Thoughts:
Our holdings had a -.89 % move this past week. And yes, we are satisfied with our risk adjusted returns YTD. If the portfolio can pull a +10 to 12% for the year; you will not hear any whining from this house. (This sentence was from an April write; and I/we suppose a +5% for the year may now look good, too !) Our portfolio is at - 4.7 % from the high point in mid-July.
The old Funds Boat may make 5% or 25% this year. I expect some rough waters, changing winds and opposing currents; causing the most serious attention being given to a firm hand upon the rudder control. (April report text)
The immediate below % of holdings are only determined by a "fund" name, NO M* profile this week
CASH = 8.3%
Mixed bond funds = 81.8%
Equity funds = 9.9%
-Investment grade bond funds 18.6%
-Diversified bond funds 18.5%
-HY/HI bond funds 25.8%
-Total bond funds 14.6%
-Foreign EM/debt bond funds 4.3%
-U.S./Int'l equity/speciality funds 9.9%
This is our current list: (NOTE: I have added a speciality grouping below for a few of fund types)
ALSO, this week indicates yield/YTD data after the fund name
---High Yield/High Income Bond funds
FAGIX Fid Capital & Income (6.4%/-6.5%)
SPHIX Fid High Income (6.9%/-2.8%)
FHIIX Fed High Income (8%/-1.2%)
DIHYX TransAmerica HY (8.6%/-1%)
DHOAX Delaware HY (front load waived) (6.7%/-4.9%)
---Total Bond funds
FTBFX Fid Total (3.3%/+5.5%)
PTTRX Pimco Total (3.3%/+1.9%)
---Investment Grade Bonds
APOIX Amer. Cent. TIPS Bond (2.4%/+7.7%)
DGCIX Delaware Corp. Bd (5.2%/+4.8%)
FBNDX Fid Invest Grade (2.8%/+6.6%)
FINPX Fidelity TIPS Bond (.8%/+10.2%)
OPBYX Oppenheimer Core Bond (4.9%/6.2%)
---Global/Diversified Bonds
FSICX Fid Strategic Income (4.5%/+1.7%)
FNMIX Fid New Markets (5.2%/+2.4%)
DPFFX Delaware Diversified (4.4%/+4.2%)
TEGBX Templeton Global (load waived) (5.3%/-3.9%)
LSBDX Loomis Sayles (5.7%/+1.2%)
---Speciality Funds (sectors or mixed allocation)
FCVSX Fidelity Convertible Securities (bond/equity mix) (3.7%/-12.4%)
FRIFX Fidelity Real Estate Income (bond/equity mix) (5.3%/-1.2%)
FSAVX Fidelity Select Auto (0%/-32%)
FFGCX Fidelity Global Commodity (1.2%/-24%)
FDLSX Fidelity Select Leisure (.6%/-8.5%)
FSAGX Fidelity Select Precious Metals (0%/-11%)
RNCOX RiverNorth Core Opportunity (bond/equity) (2.9%/-8.2%)
---Equity-Domestic/Foreign
CAMAX Cambiar Aggressive Value (.3%/-26%)
FDVLX Fidelity Value (1.5%/-16.9%)
FSLVX Fidelity Lg. Cap Value (1.4%/-12.6%)
FLPSX Fidelity Low Price Stock (.7%/-8.6%)

Howdy hank,
I read through a bit of the NPR transcript; and I have also watched many WB interviews over the years. He is in a different monetary position vs this house; so, I guess how he views the markets and/or time frames will be different.
From part of the transcript:
"GHARIB: I know you don`t like to be asked about your outlook for the market. But what is your outlook? Are you bullish or bearish?
BUFFETT: I never had a view on that, Susie. I never will. I am enormously bullish on this country over time but I don`t have the faintest idea what the market is going to do in the next five minutes or the next five months. And I don`t pay any attention to it. We bought in the fourth quarter, $4 billion net, of common stocks. Not (INAUDIBLE) Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), $4 billion. I don`t know whether those stocks are going to go up or down next month and I don`t care. I`d like it better if they go down because we`re buying more of them all the time. I just don`t think about the market.
GHARIB: How do you feel about your big investment in Bank of America (NYSE: BAC)? The stock is lower than what it was when you bought it.
BUFFETT: I bought it to hold probably at least 10 years. So it just doesn`t make any difference"
Well, this house has to think about the market here and elsewhere; and the cost of healthcare going forward and all the other pieces of a retirement pie when there is no longer cash flow into the house from an employer/work; the time when one must rely upon their past abilities and means to save and grow money for use today and into the unknown length of one's live span.
Mr. Buffet does not have a monetary concern that would cause him to be "edgy" about the economy; but there sure are many millions in the country who are edgy. I most sincerely hope "things" become smoothed out a bit. The policio's are still sitt'in on their asses as far as I can determine; and there isn't time today for just sitt'in. The clock is a ticking................
Everyone who has a defined pension plan should sure as hell hope that whomever is running the plan knows what they are doing; lest the plan falls short of the ability to pay. At such a point, it obviously does not matter what any prior obligation to a retired employee may have been..........cause there ain't no more money, period. This happened recently in Falls Church, Rhode Island (if memory serves me well).
As I noted in the start of this thread; the issues are very complex for here and Europe, but the clocks keep on ticking away; whether Greenwich Mean Time or Pacific.
I/we too, sure would like to be a much happier camper.
Regards,
Catch

Howdy Ron,
You noted; "If you didn't get out, too late now. Asset allocation is most important. If the risk is getting too hard, perhaps less equity and more cash/fixed income will help."
I, of course; have no clue as to your current holdings or your holdings 3 years ago during that market melt. I also do not know whether you are near retirement or 20 years to retirement. This aspect usually contributes to one's view of risk and reward; among the many other variables.
As to the too late; how do you personally identify what is too late, and which sectors?
I watched this same market action from the very peak of value of our portfolio that topped out on Oct. 31, 2007. I/we then watched the gyrations and some losses and then dumped 87% of our equity holdings around June 15, 2008 and then continued to find those funds "kinda' hang in there until the "melt". We ended down -8% for 2008.
As to the too late....what if the broad markets have another -25% house cleaning over the next 6-12 months? That would not make today as a too late, eh?
I don't know whether you look at our weekly Funds Boat posting; but we already have a large portion dedicated too to a variety of bond funds.
Regards,
Catch

getting back on track
http://individual.troweprice.com/public/Retail/Planning-&-Research/T.-Rowe-Price-Insights/Personal-Finance/Retirement-Savings-Getting-Back-on-Track?placementGUID=em_id_cor&creativeGUID=EMBDHT&v_sd=201109
more $$ printing
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article30666.html
2 funds that keep you calm and balance
http://www.forbes.com/sites/katestalter/2011/09/26/2-funds-to-keep-you-calm-and-balanced/
playing to win the game
http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20110925/REG/309259962

Hi Derf,
The institutional class of this fund, AQRIX, is available for no minimum in Fidelity retirement accounts with an initial $75 transaction fee; additional purchases may be made for $5 each using their AIP. We own a small position in AQRIX, which has been poorly correlated since inception with its bogey, VBINX, along with pretty much every asset class, including such funds as SPY, EFA, BND, TGBAX, PAUIX, and DBC. I will be adding to this fund gradually, as a diversifier in my portfolio, with a target 5% allocation.
Kevin

US ENCONOMY/GOLD/SILVER & MORE
http://news.goldseek.com/InternationalForecaster/1317011064.php
don't remember if I've already post this article
http://www.pimco.com/EN/Insights/Pages/MuniVeteransDiscussEconomy.aspx
http://finance.yahoo.com/focus-retirement/article/113550/protect-young-investors-from-baby-boom-bust-reuters?mod=fidelity-startingout&cat=fidelity_2010_starting_out
crash
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/commodity-crash-hand-gold-silver-prices-tank-180226986.html?sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=

A Saturday Morn'in Hello,
On the go a bit today, and will do some Funds Boat writing later. The below numbers/list is from MSN finance and they do match return numbers from M*. Hopefully, following and matching the YTD and other time frames as you read across the page is not too nasty; as the format is the best I can provide.
Obviously, the "large AUM funds" below do not have much relationship to our holdings for a comparison; but may be of value purely for looking at the numbers in these areas. The other two areas of conservative/moderate/balanced funds have more of a relationship to our holdings.
This is the MSN link, and there is a "back" feature near the end of any funds group list to get one back to the fund type choices list...the easiest method to use:
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/partsub/funds/topfunds.asp
Anyway, a quick and dirty look at some numbers.....
Regards,
Catch
LARGE FUNDS*, by $'s invested/AUM
Symbol Company Net Assets Morningstar Stars YTD 1-year 3-year 5-year
VTSMX Vanguard Total Stock Mkt Idx Inv 58.72 Bil 4 -9.27 3.19 1.06 -0.25
AGTHX American Funds Growth Fund of Amer A 57.08 Bil 3 -10.91 -0.26 -0.24 -0.35
FCNTX Fidelity Contrafund 57.05 Bil 4 -5.76 4.71 3.19 3.05
CAIBX American Funds Capital Inc Bldr A 55.90 Bil 3 -4.09 0.35 1.79 1.13
AMECX American Funds Inc Fund of Amer A 51.18 Bil 3 -3.03 2.99 3.86 1.39
VFIAX Vanguard 500 Index Admiral 49.87 Bil 4 -8.33 3.04 0.79 -0.76
CWGIX American Funds Capital World G/I A 48.36 Bil 4 -14.32 -8.40 -1.55 -0.48
VTSAX Vanguard Total Stock Mkt Idx Adm 47.45 Bil 4 -9.22 3.28 1.16 -0.16
AIVSX American Funds Invmt Co of Amer A 43.10 Bil 3 -11.09 -1.53 -0.21 -1.59
DODFX Dodge & Cox International Stock 40.30 Bil 4 -21.23 -12.77 -2.39 -2.33
CONSERVATIVE ALLOCATION/BALANCED
SHORT TERM*
Symbol Company 3-month YTD 1-year 3-year 5-year
HSTRX Hussman Strategic Total Return 2.45 3.55 3.50 5.25 7.78
WICAX Waddell & Reed InvestEd Cnsrv A -0.19 2.18 2.13 4.16 4.46
SNSAX SAAT Defensive Strategy A -0.07 1.86 2.54 1.74 0.84
MATRX GAMCO Mathers AAA NA -1.00 -2.08 -1.97 -0.30
TPDAX Timothy Plan Defensive Strategies A -0.08 4.72 11.39 NA NA
TPDCX Timothy Plan Defensive Strategies C -0.26 4.33 10.69 NA NA
ASENX Aston Dynamic Allocation N -0.63 -0.21 9.18 5.18 NA
FMUAX Federated Muni and Stock Advantage A -0.70 4.45 4.43 3.96 1.87
FMUFX Federated Muni and Stock Advantage F -0.70 4.44 4.43 4.01 NA
FMNBX Federated Muni and Stock Advantage B -0.89 3.92 3.65 3.18 1.10
LONG TERM**
Symbol Company 3-month YTD 1-year 3-year 5-year
APIUX API Efficient Frontier Income A -9.79 -6.69 -3.63 15.87 6.80
AFFIX API Efficient Frontier Income C -9.81 -6.74 -3.74 15.36 6.08
FFSAX Fifth Third Strategic Inc A -1.49 3.05 4.20 15.30 4.49
FRACX Fifth Third Strategic Inc Inv C -1.59 2.53 3.48 14.49 3.82
PRPFX Permanent Portfolio -3.96 0.61 9.69 9.41 9.26
BERIX Berwyn Income -3.36 -0.88 3.10 8.67 7.16
VWIAX Vanguard Wellesley Income Adm -1.47 3.41 5.61 8.52 5.67
VWINX Vanguard Wellesley Income Inv -1.44 3.35 5.59 8.44 5.58
DFIAX Delaware Foundation Cnsrv Allc A -5.04 -1.75 1.95 8.04 4.66
DFIRX Delaware Foundation Cnsrv Allc R -5.11 -1.94 1.68 7.79 4.41
MODERATE ALLOCATION/BALANCED
SHORT TERM*
Symbol Company 3-month YTD 1-year 3-year 5-year
JADHX JHT Core Diversified Gr & Inc Ser III 0.71 5.36 18.57 3.92 NA
JADNX JHT Core Diversified Gr & Inc Ser NAV 0.71 5.45 18.74 4.11 NA
SIRRX Sierra Core Retirement R -0.61 2.71 3.26 13.11 NA
SIRAX Sierra Core Retirement A -0.49 2.66 3.05 12.89 NA
CPMPX Changing Parameters -0.53 0.53 3.45 0.68 NA
SIRCX Sierra Core Retirement C -0.65 2.17 2.32 NA NA
AAXAX Adaptive Allocation A -1.69 -1.16 12.20 NA NA
AAXCX Adaptive Allocation C -2.07 -1.71 11.12 7.98 2.31
MOBAX Aston/Montag & Caldwell Balanced N -2.92 -1.41 4.28 3.58 4.42
HBFBX Hennessy Balanced -3.17 0.27 4.19 3.53 0.91
LONG TERM**
Symbol Company 3-month YTD 1-year 3-year 5-year
SIRRX Sierra Core Retirement R -0.40 2.71 3.35 13.16 NA
SIRAX Sierra Core Retirement A -0.70 2.49 2.91 12.85 NA
BRUFX Bruce -6.67 1.78 11.68 12.79 3.93
RNCOX RiverNorth Core Opportunity -10.19 -7.39 0.86 10.03 NA
AAXCX Adaptive Allocation C -2.07 -1.71 11.12 7.98 2.31
IBALX Transamerica Balanced A -6.17 -3.22 8.22 6.97 4.12
ICMBX Intrepid Capital -6.69 -4.89 2.31 7.20 6.49
FBLAX Franklin Balanced A -7.76 -5.34 2.36 6.69 2.12
AZNAX Allianz AGIC Income & Growth A -9.16 -7.39 2.09 7.09 NA
AZNDX Allianz AGIC Income & Growth D -9.13 -7.44 2.10 7.09 NA

Reply to @catch22: I totally agree. Corporations should get out of the business of picking funds and the 401k, 403 type of account should be liberated.
I am actually pissed of various different type of account for different purposes. We do have IRA, Roth IRA, 401k, 529 Collage Savings Account, HSA accounts. There should be one type of tax advantaged account that cater for multiple purposes. The money is fragmented unnecessarily and also you cannot always determine in advance (actually usually) what amount you would need for what purpose (Retirement, College, Health Savings)

Ah, the grand plan would be a "federal law" for 401k, 403b, 457 or similar retirement programs to be mandated to offer a Schwab type of plan (a personal account) or a Fido brokerage acct. type and/or what any other vendor may provide that is similar; so that the retirement plan investor has a very large base of the fund/eft world open to them. All plans would have a "stable value" (psuedo bond fund) choice, too.
M*'s list is too small and to me the obvious choice situation is for a "plan" to be wide open......period.
The burden of decisions and related for such a setup would remove a cost and time eating function of HR depts. for companies.
We know that many companies providing retirement plans do not, have not and will not have much vision as to which vendor and/or choices to offer to an employee for choices of investments.
I have viewed numerous plans over the years and wished that my 401k could have such wonderful choices. For employees, it is a by chance situation, dependent upon who they happen to be employed.
I asked too many times over the years of my plan admins; where are the inflation protection choices and such. Heck, this is not their area of expertise running an HR function. I am most positvie that none of them had a clue about choices in a plan; and yet someone made a plan choice that I must live with; from those who are clueless.
I found too many times a superfluous/redundant list of similar choices of too many overlapping offerings. I don't need 5 each of small/mid/large caps. Take a few of those away and give me access to TIPS, commodities and a metals fund.
Many plans that I have viewed lack what we here know to be the options for a well diversified investment basket; if one is inclined to set such a goal.
Regards,
Catch

Reply to @Anonymous: Thanks. Good food for thought, Actually they got only about 25% my retirement money and some of that's in their income fund which is doing OK. I do believe in spreading it around, maybe not as much as you. Actually, used to have more with them. Been cutting back not because of their recent performance, but simply because am getting older and even their balanced fund a bit on the aggressive side.

Reply to @Investor: For what it's worth, I've been agonizing about the Utopia profile for about four years. My original profile was exceedingly skeptical, my revised profile was exceedingly supportive. The funds, briefly, performed well and then sucked mightily. They liquidated without a word of explanation to their investors and refused to respond to emails asking for clarification.
I might (or might not) have learned four things from the experience: (1) beware of purely opportunistic funds - Utopia had no clearly defined strategy beyond "exploit undercovered investments too small for other firms to exploit."
(2) Be sure that the guy with the track record is the guy running your fund. FIM's president had great success using this strategy on separate accounts, brought into two portfolio managers and gave them charge of the funds. Something similar is true in the case of Auer Growth (about which I was pretty skeptical) where Auer Sr. made money using the strategy in his retirement account and Auer Jr. ran it as a mutual fund.
(3) Be skeptical of folks with great success in separate accounts, but no track record in funds. A lot of advisory firms have splendid separate account composites, but those composites might represent as few as a dozen investors (though some range into the hundreds). There's a lot of differences between those two universes and success in one only suggests the possibility of success in the other. I'm willing to give folks like Wedgewood the benefit of the doubt because I can see how their strategy (buy and hold 20 wide moat stocks) transfers; in the case of more-opaque strategies, caution reigns.
And (4) be cautious in manager interviews. I've only ever interviewed two really dull, uninspiring guys (no, I'm not saying but my profiles reflected those concerns). The rest are all bright, articulate, enthused. There's a risk of getting caught up in that enthusiasm. I try to guard against that by (a) writing the profile first based on an analysis of the record, the fund characteristics and its strategy and (b) asking for an interview only to address questions left unanswered by the record.
None of that guarantees that I'm right, but it seems to have increased my batting average by a bit. (Whether I'm made it above "the Mendoza line" remains an open question.)
David

You're exactly write about reading my profiles: these are not recommendations for anyone to buy a particular fund nor a signal that I'm buying them. Most profiles close with either a statement of skepticism or a recommendation to for a particular type of investor ('folks looking for a conservative core holding") add it to their due-diligence list. Whenever I own, or intend to purchase, a fund, I try to flag that fact.
For what interest it holds, I've got three portfolios: very conservative (which we have in lieu of a savings account), moderately conservative (my non-retirement holdings) and moderately aggressive (my 403b and Roth). In general, the very conservative funds avoid equities and the moderately conservative ones have mandates which give their managers some flexibility about where to invest. Only about 5% of the very conservative portfolio is investing in stocks, which about 40% of the moderately conservative one is. That latter estimate changes as the managers shift their equity allocations, of course.
Here are the funds in the first two, in order of their weight in the portfolio:
Very conservative (up about 3.5% YTD):
T. Rowe Price Spectrum Income (RPSIX), a fund of funds with low expenses and about a 15% equity stake
Hussman Strategic Total Return (HSTRX), increasingly a bear market fund given H's performance on down-market days
Bank savings account, mostly a holding pen of sorts.
RiverPark Short Term High-Yield (RPHYX), a particularly low volatility fund which I'm test driving as a cash-management alternative
Moderately conservative (down about 3.5% YTD):
T. Rowe Price Spectrum Income (RPSIX), see above
Leuthold Global (GLBLX), marketed as "Leuthold Core goes global," this is a quant-driven, fairly pricey fund that can invest anywhere, in pretty much anything, long or short. Its been about the strongest of the Leuthold stable since launch.
Matthews Asian Growth & Income (MACSX), a singularly low-volatility way to invest in Asian markets, occasionally invests heavily in convertible securities
FPA Crescent (FPACX): another go-anywhere fund whose manager scours a corporation's finances to determine where (if at all) to invest, from their stocks and bonds to convertibles and loans.
Artisan International Value (ARTKX): solid, large-cap GARPy, from the folks who also manage Artisan Global Value
Artisan Small Cap Value (ARTVX), my oldest holding and one that has thrived in an array of markets.
RiverPark Short-Term High Yield (RPHYX), my newest and smallest holding, also above.
I've profiled about 120 funds for FundAlarm and/or the Observer. Of those, I have non-retirement investments in Leuthold Global, RiverPark Short-Term High Yield, Hussman Strategic Total Return, and Matthews Asian Growth & Income. I had a small investment in Utopia Core, which crashed and liquidated.
Getting into my portfolio is durned difficult, because I'm not interested in expanding the number of funds I own (dilutes performance, complicates record-keeping) so there needs to be an open spot. That results if (1) a current holding implodes (Utopia Core, sigh), (2) a new opportunity set emerges (the called HY bonds are an example, but master limited partnerships or e.m. local currency debt would also qualify), (3) a manager I own launches a new, more-interesting fund (I'm on the bubble about Artisan International Value versus Artisan Global Value) or (4) my needs - and hence my target asset allocation - change.

Before anything else: "As an independent investor responsible for your own successes and shortfalls, a huge dose of skepticism is always a prudent quality." I agree with that quite a bit (especially the first part), although I'm shocked with the near-complete lack of skepticism that I've seen over the last couple of years after what happened in 2008. Anyone who was slightly skeptical or negative was shouted down, without question.
Otherwise... not the most clear way of stating it, but what I've discussed on the boards falls close to what I own, is what I own or at least falls within my way of thinking/is something I would own if I was interested in that sector if I am not currently.
I will say that the example portfolios I have recommended to others on this board are generally "light" versions of my views, working in my viewpoint but allocating in a more broad/somewhat more conservative fashion. I would not recommend anyone older/near retirement (which is a large portion of the board, I think) allocate/invest in exactly the same manner that I do, but I do work in what I believe to be themes I have a strong belief in.
As for NARFX (which will apparently now become something else at some other fund company), it is a mixture of Hussman's recent stubbornness on overall, broad macro views and Heebner's recent mis-timing on micro views. Owned it early on, sold it early on when this became clear (I *think* it was short oil or something along those lines in 2008 early, then I believe got out of that early and still didn't make money in 2008. The fund has mis-timed other bets - early or late - ever since.) The people behind NARFX seem very nice, but the fund tripped up after the first year or so and never got out of its own way since. More complex/alternative strategies are certainly not at all a bad thing or something to be avoided, but simply the fact remains that there are few retail products in this area that pull off these strategies consistently and/or well (and some simply don't have the flexibility to pull off the complex strategy fully.)
As for Heebner, I think (and thought at the time) that CGM Focus was truly over when Jim Cramer called it his "favorite mutual fund" on Regis and Kelly one morning.
Additionally, anyone who invests in a fund because David writes a review (overview is probably a better term) of it (and I do think his overviews are terrific) and then becomes displeased is silly. These overviews are "building blocks" for research into a fund, and very good building blocks they are. I certainly did not expect David to invest in everything he gives an overview of, but wouldn't be surprised if he was invested in some of them.

Hi Max. Glad you're back.
You didn't really ask for advice, but you did say you were "...too concentrated in the extreme." Since you are going to be with TRP, have you given any thought of using one of their Target Date funds as your core holding? These funds have very good return records. The retirement-target date is about a 40:60 split equity funds to bond funds. Say you put 50-80% into a core fund like that (the 2005 fund is 50:50, 2010 60:40) and then made your sector or regional bets using the Matthews or EM bond funds.
Just an idea. It is risky, in fact I would say dangerous, to be to focused on sector/regional 'bets' as you get closer to retirement. In my opinion diversification, which is key to target funds, will reduce volatility big-time. Maybe Asia and EM bonds have better prospects over time than the U.S., but I wouldn't bet my retirement on it.
Just an idea. My 401k is with TRP and I'm very happy with it.

I don't have any great ideas about getting into the institutional share class -- my company's retirement account is considered institutional. I was also able to open up direct no-load IRA accounts with IVA (and got both my sons load-waived IRA accounts) as a registered investment advisor (I have a series 6 license). That door is probably closed as well now, since both of their funds are no longer available to new investors.

Anonymous Larry T
I've been adding to both through my Schwab retirement plan brokerage account, load waived.
I am a Schwab client also, but have not found a way to get access to the load waived funds such IVWIX.
I purchased it at Think or Swim and transferred it to Schwab, but cannot add to it.
Do you have an investor advisor?

SGENX is the only loaded fund I've ever bought -- no regrets here. I purchased shares in the late 80s for my 1987-born son's college fund and for my IRA. Sold the college shares after 17 years or so with something like a 16% annual return -- turned $2k into 2 years of in-state expenses. Of course I was buying Jean Marie Eviellard's management and got 20 great years of it. Who knows if his successors will be similarily successful (SGENX was #1 in its category for most of the long periods I've owned it). So I got lucky -- although Jean Marie was being widely lauded at the time of my purchase, so it wasn't blind luck. Some prefer IVA, which is run by Jean Marie's hand picked successors, also loaded, also closed to new investors. For the past five years I've been adding to both through my Schwab retirement plan brokerage account, load waived. These funds held up very well in 2008 and are are happy holdings year-to-date. So the answer is, maybe.

I can not and will not offer any prediction based upon what I think I see for any trends, either fundamental or techinical. The best this house can do is to attempt to keep both feet in different waters for the best end result; with the full attention still being capital preservation and to stay ahead of the inflation "creep". If adjustments are needed; perhaps will be good enough at catching and making a required change.
The markets at times, reminds me of being at a marina. I don't need to see or feel the wind in my face; but only to hear the sound of the riggings on the sailboat masts and whether or not; and/or how hard is the sound. No sound, an occasional clang, clang-clang or hard and continous clangs. This tells me about how disturbed the waters are; causing the boats to rock at the surface.
And retirement, well one may be retired from "work"; but if we get the average life span, one surely can not retire from protecting and growing the investments; lest one runs out of MONEY, eh?
So, we're really in the same boat. You're attempting to grow your monies for retirement and we have to grow/maintain our monies near retirement and in retirement.
Regards,
Catch

hi catch...
boom/bang, just like that, now dows near 11500s levels. Any thoughts? Do you think we can break 13000s by end of the year? Everything is pretty much about momentum and swings, not much fundamentals left and personally, looks like everything almost random again... don't know if you should sell when you are near retirement and don't know if we should buy if you have 20s yrs left

Howdy,
Again, a thank you to all who post the links and also start and participate in the many fine commentaries woven into the message threads.
For those who don't know; I ramble away about this and that, at least once each week.
NOTE: For those who visit MFO, this portfolio is designed for retirement, capital preservation and to stay ahead of inflation creep; if and when it returns. This is not a buy and hold portfolio, and is subject to change on any given day; based upon perceptions of market directions. All assets in this portfolio are in tax-sheltered accounts; and any fund distributions are reinvested in the funds. Gains or losses are computed from actual account values.
While looking around..... I find a much too full weekend period, and will only state that looking at last week's market moves and some of the futures area this Sunday evening; that I still don't find a defined market; as to where the big money may run to next. Me brain cells are too tired.
Such are the numerous battles with investments attempting to capture a decent return and minimize the risk.
We live and invest in interesting times, eh?
Hey, I probably forgot something; and hopefully the words make some sense.
Comments and questions always welcomed.
Good fortune to you, yours and the investments.
Take care,
Catch
SELLs/BUYs THIS PAST WEEK:
NONE
Portfolio Thoughts:
Our holdings had a -.2% move this past week. And yes, we are satisfied with our risk adjusted returns YTD. If the portfolio can pull a +10 to 12% for the year; you will not hear any whining from this house. (This sentence was from an April write; and I/we suppose a +5% for the year may now look good, too !) Our portfolio is at - 2.2% from the high point in mid-July. A brief note: Some of the bond funds are behaving much weaker than we expected. Perhaps this is just a lag in this area from what continues to appear a lack of conviction in many market sectors. Heck, maybe we should just move 50% of the monies into a few long bond funds and find what happens.....:)
Good investment fortune to all in the coming months.
The old Funds Boat may make 5% or 25% this year. I expect some rough waters, changing winds and opposing currents; causing the most serious attention being given to a firm hand upon the rudder control. (April report text)
The immediate below % of holdings are only determined by a "fund" name, NO M* profile this week
CASH = 8.3%
Mixed bond funds = 81.8%
Equity funds = 9.9%
-Investment grade bond funds 18.6%
-Diversified bond funds 18.5%
-HY/HI bond funds 25.8%
-Total bond funds 14.6%
-Foreign EM/debt bond funds 4.3%
-U.S./Int'l equity/speciality funds 9.9%
This is our current list: (NOTE: I have added a speciality grouping below for a few of fund types)
---High Yield/High Income Bond funds
FAGIX Fid Capital & Income
SPHIX Fid High Income
FHIIX Fed High Income
DIHYX TransAmerica HY
DHOAX Delaware HY (front load waived)
---Total Bond funds
FTBFX Fid Total
PTTRX Pimco Total
---Investment Grade Bonds
APOIX Amer. Cent. TIPS Bond
DGCIX Delaware Corp. Bd
FBNDX Fid Invest Grade
FINPX Fidelity TIPS Bond
OPBYX Oppenheimer Core Bond
---Global/Diversified Bonds
FSICX Fid Strategic Income
FNMIX Fid New Markets
DPFFX Delaware Diversified
TEGBX Templeton Global (load waived)
LSBDX Loomis Sayles
---Speciality Funds (sectors or mixed allocation)
FCVSX Fidelity Convertible Securities (bond/equity mix)
FRIFX Fidelity Real Estate Income (bond/equity mix)
FSAVX Fidelity Select Auto
FFGCX Fidelity Global Commodity
FDLSX Fidelity Select Leisure
FSAGX Fidelity Select Precious Metals
RNCOX RiverNorth Core Opportunity (bond/equity)
---Equity-Domestic/Foreign
CAMAX Cambiar Aggressive Value
FDVLX Fidelity Value
FSLVX Fidelity Lg. Cap Value
FLPSX Fidelity Low Price Stock