Oh, I know; there are worse. But as you like to tutor us, averages can be so misleading. (And rates mean little.) The tax on my old 3ksf ranched-out cape worth a little over $1M in a town next to Weston Mass. is within a few percent of the average of the NJ towns listed above (just under $19k compared w/ just over $20k). Everything will be higher this year, of course. I must ask my NJ friends in some of the above towns about the reality of "losing their tax base as high income earners flee". One argument is that this will be a good thing in the long run.

FYI: The level of stock markets differs widely across countries. And right now the U.S. is leading the world. What everyone wants to know is why—and whether its stock market’s current level is justified.
We can get a simple intuitive measure of the differences between countries by looking at price/earnings ratios. I have long advocated the cyclically adjusted price/earnings ratio, or CAPE, that John Campbell, now at Harvard University, and I developed 30 years ago.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.barrons.com/articles/america-the-worlds-priciest-stock-market-1517019872

I looked at alternatives ( L/S, Merger, futures, even market neutral) a year or so ago, because I thought stocks and bonds were overpriced even then and cash paid so little. I came to the same conclusion about L/S funds as David but BPLSX was closed (somehow SFHYX escaped my radar) so I started a position in it's global cousin BGLSX/BGRSX. It has done pretty well and seems to be positioned to avoid huge draw downs.
All of the other alternatives are reasonable, ie more cash, options etc, although the performance of FPACX has not inspired confidence in the last three years ( it lost more than the SP500) in Jan 2016, making me wonder what was involved.
One of the problems with mutual funds is you are investing in someone else's ideas about returns, safety and risk. Usually they are consistent, and reliable but not always. Of course the farther away from "bread and butter" diversification ( major asset classes, cash as ballast etc ) the more of a black box.
Certainly a portfolio with 30 to 50% cash will be significantly less volatile, but your returns will lower. There is a greater argument to made for cash with a 25 return now than a year ago
The key is 1) know what return you need and be sure you won't stick your neck out and get burned and 2) know exactly what you will do when a crunch comes and the market is down 20 % . If you can't stand the heat...

Yes, am also looking hard at DGRW, wondering about it vs CAPE for placement of some burning cash. Although Malkiel now has me thinking about IEMG and ESGE....

I moved some DSENX into DLEUX a few months ago, a small amount to start. My thought was; I like the CAPE theory, so if there is better value in Europe then CAPE should work well there. Maybe better than US.
If I compare the US version to Europe, The U.S version has done better, but not by a lot. But I take that with a grain of salt because domestic stocks have all been on a tear. so maybe not a good comparison. If I compare it to FEU, a broader Europe ETF, it under performs substantially over the last 3 months, 1.7% to 6.1% for FEU and by about 5% over one year, 23% for DLEUX versus 28% for FEU.
I don't know what it all means over this short time, but I don't have a huge stake in DLEUX to give it much worry. I don't plan to move any more DSENX to DLEUX at this point, but I'm not going to sell either. Still an experiment.

@davidmoran: are you the only one on this board who owns this fund? I own a lot of DSENX, but I have been unimpressed with the European version of CAPE. What I did buy last year were BCVSX and MOTI.

As it should have. He was talking about stocks, and there's a big difference between being a customer of a company and knowing a company. It's the latter sense in which he meant one should know what (company) one is investing in.
Still, when it comes to industries, knowing means something different. Working in an industry can give you a good sense of the health of that industry if you are attentive.
I was wondering whether you had any thoughts about how the CAPE index model will be adjusted for the new sector since this is a thread about DSENX. When real estate was carved out of financials, the CAPE index was modified to use a non-SPDR index fund, IYR.
I imagine that was done because it needed an index fund with a ten year history, and by definition, XLRE was a new fund without a history. Though IYR might have been chosen because it was more inclusive, holding mortgage REITS such as NLY that XLRE excludes.
However, that might mean that the CAPE index added a new group of companies (mortgage REITs) that it had not tracked before. A discontinuity. Regardless, another imprecision arose - the old history of the financial sector included real estate, while the sector itself no longer did. Was any attempt made to correct for this (e.g. recalculating the financial index history after pulling out the real estate component)?
This time things are even more interesting. The CAPE index tracks XLK for technology, but XLK combines technology and telecom. That's why there are ten "sectors" that the CAPE index uses, while there are eleven S&P sectors.
It is possible that State Street will decide to keep XLK as it is, in which case the CAPE index won't have to do a thing (other than watch the technology+communications "sector" continue to grow in weight). But what if State Street does finally create a communications Select Sector SPDR? There won't be any history for the new SPDR (just as there was no history for XLRE). Would the CAPE index turn again to a non-Select Sector SPDR? Also, as happened with XLF, the history for XLK will no longer precisely represent the new XLK after communications companies are carved out.
DSENX in turn will need derivatives that track whatever index or indexes the CAPE index chooses to track. Will they exist?
And they say that a machine can run an index fund.

@Ted, Thanks for the article.
Last line from the article say it all:

“CAPE tends to be too pessimistic and PEG may be too optimistic,” Yardeni said by phone. “The truth may lie somewhere in between.”

FYI: By virtually any measure, U.S. stocks are expensive. Under one especially harsh lens, the cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio popularized by Robert Shiller, equities relative to 10 years of profits are more stretched than any time in a century, save the dot-com era.
But there’s still a methodology that bulls can take comfort in -- price not just to earnings, but to earnings growth. Favored by legendary investor Peter Lynch and known as the PEG ratio, the technique takes the standard valuation snapshot and adds time -- time for a stock to grow into its price.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/forget-cape-ratio--peter-lynch-tool-has-s-p-500-getting-cheaper-36555.html?print

@Old_Skeet, your sector momentum strategy sounds exactly like that momentum news letter you used to link a few years ago. Are you copying that guy's strategy? Can't remember the name of the letter or the guy who ran it. Invest in the 3 leading sectors and replace sectors based on current strength.
Kind of why I like the CAPE strategy of DSENX albeit the opposite strategy. They do do it better than I could.

I avoided mentioning PONDX because I was trying to envision worst-case scenarios going forward. I concur in the take that the longterm future is unlikely to be like the bull past we have enjoyed. Looking chiefly at GOs' UI in Premium, I still think trying to achieve the $24k/y would entail over half but hopefully not two-thirds in DODIX or Vanguard equivalent, with the rest --- as much as comfort-bearable --- in TWEIX / SPLV / CAPE or a combo of them. 40% or more.
Else VWINX, though I do not think it will quite hit the almost 5%-withdrawal mark.
Or this might do best, since security is paramount:
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=1263&FundIntExt=INT&ps_disable_redirect=true
or
https://www.fidelity.com/annuities/immediate-fixed-income-annuities/compare

The other problem is this. VWINX is an excellent fund because of low fees and good management. These facts will likely continue into the future. But to project its past performance into the future is a mistake. Consider the author of the aforementioned seekingalpha article's premise regarding backtesting. He looks back to January 1, 1992.
These were the conditions for the market in January 1992:
Dividend yield of the S&P 500: 3%
multpl.com/s-p-500-dividend-yield/
10-Year Treasury yield 7%
macrotrends.net/2016/10-year-treasury-bond-rate-yield-chart
10-year Shiller P/E ratio 19
https://dqydj.com/shiller-pe-cape-ratio-calculator/
Here is where we are today
S&P 500 Dividend yield: 1.77%
10-Year Treasury yield: 2.4%
10-year Shiller p/e: 34
To back-test and assume the past from January 1992 is prelude for the future today based on these numbers I think is a mistake. We have lived through a historic period of falling interesting rates and rising stock valuations from 1982 onward. That period as far as interest rates goes is over and I'm not sure how much longer the rising valuations will continue. Creative thinking is necessary.

@LB, by equity-aggressive I meant proportionally, not the holdings themselves. I would avoid foreign for this person.
VWINX looks like the choice, yes. Interesting its UI is high-ish (greater than VOOG and DSENX, e.g.).
If someone was 'managing' >1 fund, I would consider a mix of TWEIX and DODIX if FPURX dents comfort level. SPLV or CAPE could be the equity position instead of TWEIX, of course.

Hi Guys,
Thanks one and all for a very stimulating and detailed discussion exchange.
Forecasting equity returns is an extremely challenging assignment. Separating "The Signal and the Noise"' is not easy work. The Signal and the Noise is an excellent book authored by Nate Silver. Here is a Link that accesses the full text:
http://www.stavochka.com/files/Nate_Silver_The_Signal_and_the_Noise.pdf
Developing some method to reasonably predict upcoming market returns from numerous historical data correlation candidates has escaped just about everyone, including industry giants like Vanguard.
Here is a Link to a rather exhaustive and comprehensive attempt reported by Vanguard that explored a wide array of potential correlating parameters:
https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/s338.pdf
Vanguard does honest work. All correlation attempts failed, including the use of last year's returns to project next year's equity rewards. See Figure 2 in the referenced document. I suppose one response to these forecasting failures is to accept prediction defeat and simply stay invested for the long haul.
Best Wishes for a happy and prosperous New Year.

Not much inflation fighting happening with STPZ; but if one can handle the big swings and have a feel for the markets; go play with the big dog/cousin LTPZ. Have played in this area before and escaped with a decent return, but one has to pay close attention. One could make a living playing this area.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?stpz,ltpz

I am bullish for the upcoming year, but have just sold a patch of DSENX (post-runup) in a Roth just to be able to think clearly about cash needs (dau wedding) next fall and possible dip buying prior (CAPE vs NOBL vs QUAL vs DGRO).
Also about $200k <4% heloc with interesting nondeductibility looming. Do I care whether it is 3.75% deductible, or a bit higher?
Am tracking SOI to buy in Jan, maybe.
Will be running ORP several times w new tax situations to see about where to fund non-SS cashflow for the year too.

FYI: It is that time of year, when the financial industry engages in its annual ritual of making forecasts, which is usually little more than the prelude to looking foolish. Titles like “Outlook for 2018, “What to expect in the new year,” or some variation thereof litter the landscape. Over the years, it has been my distinct privilege (and truth be told, pleasure) to point out how silly this process is.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-12-15/wall-street-wises-up-to-the-folly-of-forecasting

Of the 128 alternative & mixed asset funds launched this year, here are the top performers in each: Arabesque Systematic USA (ASUIX), Measured Risk Strategy I (MRPIX), Gotham Master Long (GMLFX), GMO Climate Change III (GCCHX), DoubleLine Shiller Enhanced International CAPE I (DSEUX), Driehaus Multi-Asset Growth Economies (DMAGX) ...

Is this an error, or what the heck happened? DSENX down -6.45%. That's what I see on my Schwab account.

Couldn't resist the visual look to satisfy my curious brain. I also have been watching as to or if the "value" area is going to receive a more aggressive bump up.....and there is a bit here now.
Nov. 2013 to date:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?DSEEX,CAPE,JKF,JKE&n=1023&O=011000
Last 6 months to date:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?DSEEX,CAPE,JKF,JKE&p=3&O=011000