Hi Catch,
Thanks to you as well for your commentary and portfolio updates.
I have a question for you that plays off of your fund boat. I am going to try and create a 5-10 year draw down portfolio for one of my mom's investment bucket. She is 88 and needs about $600/mo to compliment her SS benefits. I would like to diversify her "boat" with 80% high quality income generating funds and 20% with growth funds that might hedge inflation as well as be exposed to the risk of the markets. She will be spending down some of her portfolio shares since her last bucket is more like a pail... it is quite small ($35K). With inflation, she will draw $600/mo in year 1 but this will evolve into almost $700/mo in year 6.
My thought is to divide her portfolio into a portfolio of 4-8 funds. If you were to pared down your holdings (boat), what would be your top 8 funds? What would your top 4 funds be? Would one group(4 vs. 8) hold any advantage over the other?
I would guess FAGIX would be one of your top four holdings but I would like to hear your take on creating an ultra simplified "last bucket" draw down retirement portfolio remembering that it will be the "last bucket" before kicking the proverbial...bucket. We all will be there one day.
Thanks,
bee

Howdy,
Again, a thank you to all who post the links and also start and participate in the many fine commentaries woven into the message threads.
For those who don't know; I ramble away about this and that, at least once each week.
NOTE: For those who visit MFO, this portfolio is designed for retirement, capital preservation and to stay ahead of inflation creep; if and when it returns. This is not a buy and hold portfolio, and is subject to change on any given day; based upon perceptions of market directions. All assets in this portfolio are in tax-sheltered accounts; and any fund distributions are reinvested in the funds. Gains or losses are computed from actual account values.
While looking around..... Too busy of a weekend with other than money watching. Briefly; peeked at any news for EU and appears a coin toss; although the early Asian markets are somewhat happy. Started our own project of OOOF, Occupy Our Own Funds. Minimal outside managerial, political or other influences to affect our policy making decisions to OOOF; aside from the normal tiny variables in the global monetary market places...:):):) A money move last week as indicated further down the page.
Such are the numerous battles with investments attempting to capture a decent return and minimize the risk.
We live and invest in interesting times, eh?
Hey, I probably forgot something; and hopefully the words make some sense.
Comments and questions always welcomed.
Good fortune to you, yours and the investments.
Take care,
Catch
SELLs/BUYs THIS PAST WEEK:
SOME CASH MOVED TO FINPX, which already had some monies invested from this house; and the percentages of holdings has been adjusted accordingly.
Portfolio Thoughts:
Our holdings had a +.67 % move this past week. And yes, we are satisfied with our risk adjusted returns YTD. If the portfolio can pull a +10 to 12% for the year; you will not hear any whining from this house. (This sentence was from an April write; and I/we suppose a +5% for the year may now look good, too !) Our portfolio is at - 3.65 % from the high point in mid-July.
The old Funds Boat may make 5% or 25% this year. I expect some rough waters, changing winds and opposing currents; causing the most serious attention being given to a firm hand upon the rudder control. (April report text)
We can hardly wait until Oct. 31 to find whether it will be the trick or the treat.
The immediate below % of holdings are only determined by a "fund" name, NO M* profile this week
CASH = 4.5%
Mixed bond funds = 87.4%
Equity funds = 8.1%
-Investment grade bond funds 26.8%
-Diversified bond funds 18.5%
-HY/HI bond funds 23.2%
-Total bond funds 14.6%
-Foreign EM/debt bond funds 4.3%
-U.S./Int'l equity/speciality funds 8.1%
This is our current list: (NOTE: I have added a speciality grouping below for a few of fund types)
---High Yield/High Income Bond funds
FAGIX Fid Capital & Income
SPHIX Fid High Income
FHIIX Fed High Income
DIHYX TransAmerica HY
---Total Bond funds
FTBFX Fid Total
PTTRX Pimco Total
---Investment Grade Bonds
APOIX Amer. Cent. TIPS Bond
DGCIX Delaware Corp. Bd
FBNDX Fid Invest Grade
FINPX Fidelity TIPS Bond
OPBYX Oppenheimer Core Bond
---Global/Diversified Bonds
FSICX Fid Strategic Income
FNMIX Fid New Markets
DPFFX Delaware Diversified
TEGBX Templeton Global (load waived)
LSBDX Loomis Sayles
---Speciality Funds (sectors or mixed allocation)
FCVSX Fidelity Convertible Securities (bond/equity mix)
FRIFX Fidelity Real Estate Income (bond/equity mix)
FFGCX Fidelity Global Commodity
FDLSX Fidelity Select Leisure
FSAGX Fidelity Select Precious Metals
RNCOX RiverNorth Core Opportunity (bond/equity)
---Equity-Domestic/Foreign
FDVLX Fidelity Value
FSLVX Fidelity Lg. Cap Value
FLPSX Fidelity Low Price Stock

Howdy,
Again, a thank you to all who post the links and also start and participate in the many fine commentaries woven into the message threads.
For those who don't know; I ramble away about this and that, at least once each week.
NOTE: For those who visit MFO, this portfolio is designed for retirement, capital preservation and to stay ahead of inflation creep; if and when it returns. This is not a buy and hold portfolio, and is subject to change on any given day; based upon perceptions of market directions. All assets in this portfolio are in tax-sheltered accounts; and any fund distributions are reinvested in the funds. Gains or losses are computed from actual account values.
While looking around.....That sound is the pontoon boat's aluminum floats rubbing upon the sand bottom; as we are parked in a relative safe harbor, just 20 feet from the shoreline, protected on three sides from the strong winds blowing from one of the Great Lakes bordering Michigan. A 30' pontoon boat needs about 2' of water depth to not touch the below sand or rocks. The boat is in 3' of water depth, but the recent rocking motion of the boat comes from the larger waves that have formed farther out into the big lake surface; but still have impact into the shoreline of the safe harbor.
We find any number of boats in the area; some of whom have also taken safe harbor. A few have pulled their boats completely out of the water. There are other boats, confirmed with a look through the binoculars; that are navigating along into the bigger waves at various distances from the shoreline, and one knows there are other boats much farther out into the open waters of the big lake, but beyond the view of the horizon. We do hope that the weather radar systems upon all of these boats are in proper working order and that the pilots are able to recognize meaningful images to avoid the sudden; sometimes localized, and sometimes far reaching storms that come to be upon the Great Lakes.
Using the weather radar systems allows one to avoid most of the in place and obvious storms; but it is the weather fronts moving into positon that are most difficult to predict. Some of these will never develop into anything meaningful; other than some rain and wind. Some will become storms that pose the potential to do damage to one's boat.
Obviously, as our boat is in a relatively safe harbor, based upon our reading of the weather radar; we do not have the same comittment as those who choose to ply the open, equity waters. From our recent observations of the number of boats in safer harbors, versus those in the open equity waters; there remains a division of how the images upon the weather radar are being interpreted, relative to the weather fronts one may view.
For the below video link, click onto the name title first for a full screen play; so that you may then click onto the "show more" just below the video image which will let you view the text of the radio transmissions and the song lyric.

Such are the numerous battles with investments attempting to capture a decent return and minimize the risk.
We live and invest in interesting times, eh?
Hey, I probably forgot something; and hopefully the words make some sense.
Comments and questions always welcomed.
Good fortune to you, yours and the investments.
Take care,
Catch
SELLs/BUYs THIS PAST WEEK:
NONE
Portfolio Thoughts:
Our holdings had a +1.35 % move this past week. And yes, we are satisfied with our risk adjusted returns YTD. If the portfolio can pull a +10 to 12% for the year; you will not hear any whining from this house. (This sentence was from an April write; and I/we suppose a +5% for the year may now look good, too !) Our portfolio is at - 3.65 % from the high point in mid-July.
The old Funds Boat may make 5% or 25% this year. I expect some rough waters, changing winds and opposing currents; causing the most serious attention being given to a firm hand upon the rudder control. (April report text)
Relative to our PTTRX holding, which is the only broad based bond portfolio available in one account; we continue to remain surprised that Mr. Gross' view of Pimco's "new normal" did not match the placement of the portfolio holdings, and the lack of performance YTD. For those checking any of the portfolio holdings, FTBFX had a short term distribution of .042/share and long term distribution of .094/share that is reflected in the NAV change of -1.36% on Friday.
We can hardly wait until Oct. 31 to find whether it will be the trick or the treat.
The immediate below % of holdings are only determined by a "fund" name, NO M* profile this week
CASH = 8.3%
Mixed bond funds = 83.6%
Equity funds = 8.1%
-Investment grade bond funds 23%
-Diversified bond funds 18.5%
-HY/HI bond funds 23.2%
-Total bond funds 14.6%
-Foreign EM/debt bond funds 4.3%
-U.S./Int'l equity/speciality funds 8.1%
This is our current list: (NOTE: I have added a speciality grouping below for a few of fund types)
---High Yield/High Income Bond funds
FAGIX Fid Capital & Income
SPHIX Fid High Income
FHIIX Fed High Income
DIHYX TransAmerica HY
---Total Bond funds
FTBFX Fid Total
PTTRX Pimco Total
---Investment Grade Bonds
APOIX Amer. Cent. TIPS Bond
DGCIX Delaware Corp. Bd
FBNDX Fid Invest Grade
FINPX Fidelity TIPS Bond
OPBYX Oppenheimer Core Bond
---Global/Diversified Bonds
FSICX Fid Strategic Income
FNMIX Fid New Markets
DPFFX Delaware Diversified
TEGBX Templeton Global (load waived)
LSBDX Loomis Sayles
---Speciality Funds (sectors or mixed allocation)
FCVSX Fidelity Convertible Securities (bond/equity mix)
FRIFX Fidelity Real Estate Income (bond/equity mix)
FFGCX Fidelity Global Commodity
FDLSX Fidelity Select Leisure
FSAGX Fidelity Select Precious Metals
RNCOX RiverNorth Core Opportunity (bond/equity)
---Equity-Domestic/Foreign
FDVLX Fidelity Value
FSLVX Fidelity Lg. Cap Value
FLPSX Fidelity Low Price Stock

Reply to @catch22:
Hey Catch, I would consider YAFFX as a replacement for FSLVX. I would say YACKX but that is no longer NTF at Fidelity. Nevertheless, both Yacktman funds are very similar.
Alternatively, you can invest in a couple of good balanced funds and have the manager manage the bond/equity allocation for you. That way, you are less likely to be jumping in and out at wrong times. A few to consider: GLRBX, OAKBX, PRPFX, FPACX
Regarding allergies: I am sorry for you. Before I moved to Austin, I did not know much about allergies. I think within 5 years most people develop some allergies here. Some people claim Austin is the allergy capital of the world. I don't know if it is true. (Austinites also believe and advertise as Austin the Live Music Capital of the World)
Being Generation X, there are no pensions for me either. No cushy health benefits attached to a pension either. With the Republicans out there to destroy Medicare and Social Security as we know it, I think retirement will be much more difficult for me. I am not sure, if I will be able to build a big enough fund by then. I am not expecting a big inheritance to bail me out either. I still have 2 kids to send to college and college costs like health care is increasing much higher rate than inflation.
Bonds or equities? I wish, I knew. If I knew, I would buy long treasuries this summer. I am pretty heavy into equities but have a long time horizon.. Despite that I'm down ~5% YTD after recent rally. I try to get myself to buy a small amount on equities large down days. I think in the next 12 months market will be higher than now.

Hi scott,
"That said, I was a little surprised, given the retirement/near retirement age of many of the posters here that CAMAX had become more popular; that fund is aggressive and consistently aggressive - in addition, it can also use leverage. It does short, but not to great effect - it's a fund that will do well during good times and being at the bottom of the pack would not be surprising during bad times."
Yes, to the above. CAMAX was part of a barbell shape, offsetting the sleepy and slow moving bond funds we hold.
Tis why it was kicked out of the house, as you note above and what we saw. I have not and likely will not be a fan of long/short funds. I don't know that these folks have the edge in the current market environment. Had a discussion about BPLEX with Fundmentals when he was still around at FA.
Perhaps the long/short funds will get things right going forward; but I don't have faith in this practice, and if they do get things very right, I/we here will have missed that boat.
Thank you for your thoughts,
Catch

Sorry to hear about your experience with CAMAX - it happens and you move on. Everything is a learning experience, and there's always something new to learn with investing at any age.
That said, I was a little surprised, given the retirement/near retirement age of many of the posters here that CAMAX had become more popular; that fund is aggressive and consistently aggressive - in addition, it can also use leverage. It does short, but not to great effect - it's a fund that will do well during good times and being at the bottom of the pack would not be surprising during bad times.
I'd much rather suggest Marketfield (MFLDX), which is a very flexible long/short fund that has had a history of success at knowing when to dial up/down risk - it lost 12% in 2008 and was up 31% in 2009 and 14% in 2010. Past returns are no guarantee of future results, but this fund is - in my opinion - really one of the few successful long-short funds that has pulled off the strategy consistently.

HI Investor,
I'll do the old FA method for replies:
"SELLs/BUYs THIS PAST WEEK:
Sold entire postion in CAMAX, FSAVX and DHOAX, with all procedes going to FBNDX. We took it in the teeth with the first two......oh, well; tis how the cookie crumbles sometimes.
It looks like you bought CAMAX close to the top and and after you sold, stock funds has actually rallied significantly this week. Buy high sell low huh?
>>>>>As to CAMAX, bought high, relative to our sale price; but it remains to be seen if the sale price is the low. As to significant gains in the past week; it appears the fund was outperforming in up markets; but is having a hell of a time getting it right in a sideways market. The fund is acting like a long/short fund and having problems with the proper direction. So, gone it is. FSAVX.....really thought there would be more going forward, although not at the 2009 pace; so, gone, too. DHOAX...we had held this since May, 2009; but the fund was not holding up as well as the other HY funds....so, gone, too. All of this was and is still part of a "dump" waiting to be made.
Anyway, I know at the 1st qtr, you were starting an imaginary portfolio of funds. Did you check how it performed recently?
>>>>>The Grand Illusion fund. The portfolio mix is in place and the list is parked somewhere on this pc. I have not had time this summer to even look at the results so far. I will attempt to find this and place the list at MFO. Where we live in Michigan finds only about 2 more weeks of possible decent outside weather; to attempt to finish any outside projects. As we own and maintain our home (ah, the joys of home ownership :)...) some of the spring or fall months, and the summer days when there is no rain many times provide only "x" number of days to get anything accomplished. This summer, for me; had two downside kickers. I discovered I now have allergies to something outside and lost most of the month of June to do physical work outside; and my mother decided to buy a new home and move.........60 years worth of upwind at her previous home..........another month of unscheduled other work. Not the warmer weather project period I had envisioned last winter.
Addition: I am also curious why you continue to hold the Fidelity Large Cap Value fund which you purchased by mistake. I don't think it is a great fund either. Why not reallocate that fund into another fund?"
>>>>>This fund has had some very nice up days when the equity markets think they are happy. It isn't doing as poorly as many equity funds. What would you buy with the sale of this fund; knowing the overall moderately conservative mix we now have ?
Summary: The last two years has found us being Euro-ized two times. In May of 2010 and 2011. I was much too optimistic with the willingness and ability of the EuroZone leaders to come to grips with their problems. Our equity holdings have suffered from this and downsized the returns we have been slowly gathering in the bond sector. We were also expecting continued value in the Treasury bond area; but that sector has far surpassed our wildest thoughts about this.
Doing the silly rearview look at our portfolio: We would not have purchased many eqiuity funds in May, 2010 or 2011. We missed the equity move from the Sept. 2010 period. And we sure would have purchased a boat load of Treasury related funds in July of this year; had we known this area would exceed our optimistic view.
Either the bond market or equity market area is wrong at this time; looking forward to the next 6-12 months. This is an easy statement to make; but not easy to "call" looking forward.
As there are very few here (MFO) who have noted their holdings; I sure don't know how we measure against a similar portfolio, with the exception of Skeeter who notes his moves, but I don't know the holdings.
Our main goal; as is indicated, is to preserve capital, as we are not far away from no cash flow from "work". We will not have any grand pension or health care plan into retirement; as is common for many in this state related to the large boomer population retired from the unionized auto industry and the related large group of retired from what was a very large group of folks in the gov't/teaching/public sector; all of whom have very nice retirement packages. Without a post retirement health care plan provided and pre-Medicare retirement; a family plan here for health/dental currently has quotes of about $20,000/year with fairly high deductibles. We have always been aware of all of this with our chosen careers and have planned accordingly with building our own pension fund via IRA's, 401k's and related. We skipped all of the toys one used to find among the families in our area....the boats, snowmobiles, jet skis, the second home or cottage at the lake, etc. When we wanted or needed these adventures............we rented. We are debt free, with the exception of the normal recurring expenses.....property taxes, utilities, home/auto insurance, food and gas, etc.
So, there it is in a nutshell. We don't knowningly have a rich aunt, uncle or similar flowing inheritance money our way in the future, the self provided health care plan is going to cost an additional 9%/year at the current rate changes and we have our fingers crossed that we don't outlive our money.
While still seeking perfection in the invesment world, we will continue to make mistakes from not having time for the best research and will also be whipsawed by the perverted markets. Other than all of this, life is good.
I stepped through this reply fairly fast; and hopefully there are not many typos or mismatched thoughts; as I did not proofread the text.
Bonds sector or equity sector going forward for the next 6-12 months ??? What say you ?
Be well in Austin,
Catch

Skeeter, SVAAX is one I didn't know about, thanks. Nice in this kind of market with dividend paying stocks but a poor 5 year showing. Might be a little late now, but that's anybody's guess. I'm 77 and in-retirement and my equity allocation is fully invested.

Howdy,
Again, a thank you to all who post the links and also start and participate in the many fine commentaries woven into the message threads.
For those who don't know; I ramble away about this and that, at least once each week.
NOTE: For those who visit MFO, this portfolio is designed for retirement, capital preservation and to stay ahead of inflation creep; if and when it returns. This is not a buy and hold portfolio, and is subject to change on any given day; based upon perceptions of market directions. All assets in this portfolio are in tax-sheltered accounts; and any fund distributions are reinvested in the funds. Gains or losses are computed from actual account values.
While looking around..... The equity dump truck has its motor running and we just about pulled the lever to dump the whole related batch last week. As the market blipped up a few days, we did sell CAMAX, FSAVX; as well as DHOAX, in the bond sector. DHOAX in particular, for a technical aspect; indicated a Relative Strength that would indicate a buy for some folks. The encounter with this is what is fair value or undervalued. While I don't have any writes to direct to this area from 2008; one must suspect that there were enough "professionals" in the investment world who continued to find stuff "undervalued" per their guage. Some of these folks likely continued to be surprised for the next 6 months from Oct. 2008, as to what undervalued might really become. We all have our own guage to measure what we feel may be undervalued today; versus the unknown forward paths, and how the investments fit into our risk/reward scenario.
Most of Europe and the U.S. still find problematic conditions that remain paralyzed by both legal (Europe) and political circumstances. I can not begin to fully understand the most complex nature of the required interactions needed among the European nations that would offer a more positive prospect of corrective actions. The U.S.; well I sure don't find much comfort with the actions in D.C.; and sadly, there are some very decent folks there who work very hard and become road kill to the movers and shakers.
I can only offer this video link; in regard to the machinations of those in Europe and the U.S. who fiddle while the fires burn. I believe I had previously posted at FundAlarm.

VAN HALEN lyric:
Don't wanna wait 'til tomorrow
Why put it off another day?
One by one, little problems
Build up, and stand in our way. Oh
One step ahead, one step behind it
Now ya gotta run to get even
Make future plans I'll dream about yesterday, hey!
Come on turn, turn this thing around
(Right now) Hey! It's your tomorrow
(Right now) Come on, it's everything
(Right now) Catch your magic moment
Do it right here and now
It means everything
Miss a beat, you lose a rhythm
An nothin' falls into place. No!
Only missed by a fraction
Slipped a little off your pace. Oh!
The more things you get, the more you want
Just trade in one for another
Workin' so hard to make it easy
Whoa, got to turn. Come on, turn this thing around
(Right now) Hey, it's your tomorrow
(Right now) Come on, it's everything
(Right now) catch that magic moment
Do it right here and now
It means everything
Said a lie to me
Right now
What are ya waitin' for? Oh! Yeah!
Right now
(Right now) Hey! It's your tomorrow
(Right now) Come on, it's everything
(Right now) Catch that magic moment
And do it right, right now (Right now)
Oh, right now!
It's what's happening
Right here and now
Right now, it's right now
Oh!
Tell me, what are ya waitin' for?
Turn this thing around
Such are the numerous battles with investments attempting to capture a decent return and minimize the risk.
We live and invest in interesting times, eh?
Hey, I probably forgot something; and hopefully the words make some sense.
Comments and questions always welcomed.
Good fortune to you, yours and the investments.
Take care,
Catch
SELLs/BUYs THIS PAST WEEK:
Sold entire postion in CAMAX, FSAVX and DHOAX, with all procedes going to FBNDX. We took it in the teeth with the first two......oh, well; tis how the cookie crumbles sometimes.
Portfolio Thoughts:
Our holdings had a -.34 % move this past week. And yes, we are satisfied with our risk adjusted returns YTD. If the portfolio can pull a +10 to 12% for the year; you will not hear any whining from this house. (This sentence was from an April write; and I/we suppose a +5% for the year may now look good, too !) Our portfolio is at - 5 % from the high point in mid-July.
OMG. was the first word cluster from the mouth at this house when discovering the portfolio was still positive for YTD.
DON'T like the recent action in the HY bond sector, not moving up much with the few equity blips. I take this as a traders market in equities with some "run and gun".....take some profits and run. Our sells this past week of the above indicated and moving to an IG bond fund tells you just about all you need to know about our feelings as to forward directions. More head scratching next week; without a doubt. We'll still maintain that if the kids in Europe get a real plan of value that is is accepted and not just show and tell; our portfolio will get a big kick down and those of you holding equity positions will smile. I/we here just don't feel the "love" of a plan of purpose headed down the path, anytime soon. So, we too; are in the darn if you, darn if you don't camp. And for the time being, we are stuck with PTTRX as the only bond fund in one particular account. At least its value is not yet negative. LSBDX may get a rework/trim job; as it is not happy in this current environment either.
The old Funds Boat may make 5% or 25% this year. I expect some rough waters, changing winds and opposing currents; causing the most serious attention being given to a firm hand upon the rudder control. (April report text)
The immediate below % of holdings are only determined by a "fund" name, NO M* profile this week
CASH = 8.3%
Mixed bond funds = 83.6%
Equity funds = 8.1%
-Investment grade bond funds 23%
-Diversified bond funds 18.5%
-HY/HI bond funds 23.2%
-Total bond funds 14.6%
-Foreign EM/debt bond funds 4.3%
-U.S./Int'l equity/speciality funds 8.1%
This is our current list: (NOTE: I have added a speciality grouping below for a few of fund types)
---High Yield/High Income Bond funds
FAGIX Fid Capital & Income
SPHIX Fid High Income
FHIIX Fed High Income
DIHYX TransAmerica HY
---Total Bond funds
FTBFX Fid Total
PTTRX Pimco Total
---Investment Grade Bonds
APOIX Amer. Cent. TIPS Bond
DGCIX Delaware Corp. Bd
FBNDX Fid Invest Grade
FINPX Fidelity TIPS Bond
OPBYX Oppenheimer Core Bond
---Global/Diversified Bonds
FSICX Fid Strategic Income
FNMIX Fid New Markets
DPFFX Delaware Diversified
TEGBX Templeton Global (load waived)
LSBDX Loomis Sayles
---Speciality Funds (sectors or mixed allocation)
FCVSX Fidelity Convertible Securities (bond/equity mix)
FRIFX Fidelity Real Estate Income (bond/equity mix)
FFGCX Fidelity Global Commodity
FDLSX Fidelity Select Leisure
FSAGX Fidelity Select Precious Metals
RNCOX RiverNorth Core Opportunity (bond/equity)
---Equity-Domestic/Foreign
FDVLX Fidelity Value
FSLVX Fidelity Lg. Cap Value
FLPSX Fidelity Low Price Stock

Reply to @bee:
The actual ER of MFCFX is 1.49, which includes a dreadful 0.25% 12b-1 fee. The net ER of HAFLX is 1.00% through 2/29/2012. I purchased my shares of HAFLX for a reasonable minimum at Thinkorswim before it was gobbled up by TDAmeritrade. I just checked around at Fidelity, Firstrade, Schwab, Scottrade, and TDAmeritrade, and the minimum at these brokerages for both retirement and taxable accounts is $50K. I don't know of a way to access HAFLX for a reasonable minimum at this time.
Kevin

Howdy,
Addendum: Oct 4 2011, Tuesday
Mr. Patient Investor is really trying to convince himself of why stay the current course/portfolio for the next 6-12 months awaiting the grand event(s); awakening and cleansing of the financial houses of the developed countries. For more than two full years the European debt question has loomed overhead and has whacked the markets two times in the month of May and still the fire burns worse today.
Perhaps, if offing/selling our equity and related holdings we would miss the grand equity rally to come; and the investment grade bond holdings would then suffer.
The words of this song rang into my head this morning; originally from the Supremes version, and for the hippy-dippy crowd; the more obsecure version a few years later by Vanilla Fudge. The latter perhaps being more soulful and suited to today's invesmtent sentiment. I did not alter the original lyric; as one may fit and place their own words to suit the investment circumstance.
Lastly for now. Perhaps the old investment shotgun will come out of the closet today and just blast what has already been thumped enough and beyond; recheck the bond funds that held their ground in 2008; and the most critical past the fundamental and technical.....keep our fingers crossed for the luck.
Regards,
Catch
Set me free, why don't cha babe
Get out my life, why don't cha babe
'Cause you don't really love me
You just keep me hangin' on
You don't really need me
But you keep me hangin' on
Why do you keep a coming around
Playing with my heart?
Why don't you get out of my life
And let me make a new start?
Let me get over you
The way you've gotten over me
Set me free, why don't cha babe
Let me be, why don't cha babe
'Cause you don't really love me
You just keep me hangin' on
Now you don't really want me
You just keep me hangin' on
You say although we broke up
You still wanna be just friends
But how can we still be friends
When seeing you only breaks my heart again
And there ain't nothing I can do about it
Woo, set me free, why don't cha babe
Woo, get out my life, why don't cha babe
Set me free, why don't cha babe
Get out my life, why don't cha babe
You claim you still care for me
But your heart and soul needs to be free
Now that you've got your freedom
You wanna still hold on to me
You don't want me for yourself
So let me find somebody else Hey!
Why don't you be a man about it
And set me free
Now you don't care a thing about me
You're just using me
Go on, get out, get out of my life
And let me sleep at night
'Cause you don't really love me
You just keep me hangin' on...
Original, Oct 3
Sold the laggard of the HY bond funds YTD, today. DHOAX was sold and monies moved to DGCIX, which already had some monies. The choices available are limited with this particular retirement account, so the next best choice/guess? was made. Selling DHOAX gave up what will likely be a closing yield today of almost 9%.
For you folks holding bond funds with a fair amount of Treasury exsposure, including TIPS; ya'll should have a smile on your faces when viewing today's closing NAV's....with the assumption that the manager(s) is parked in the proper place. For the total bond funds invested in both T issues and HY; the NAV may be a mixed bag of + and - offsets.
Planned to move other monies today; but did not have account access until 3:30pm.
Now, if the folks in Europe come about with a full grand plan to sooth the big investors; and if we continue to move into more of the middle of the road bond funds, well; we will get a big face slap, as in theory; the equity kids will be buyers and the bonds will sell off. As to the U.S., well, the kids are back in D.C and who knows what magic will come from them. I DO NOT like the action in the NASDAQ arena.
Ok, gotta get some things done before the sun moves over the horizon.
Take care,
Catch

Howdy,
Again, a thank you to all who post the links and also start and participate in the many fine commentaries woven into the message threads.
For those who don't know; I ramble away about this and that, at least once each week.
NOTE: For those who visit MFO, this portfolio is designed for retirement, capital preservation and to stay ahead of inflation creep; if and when it returns. This is not a buy and hold portfolio, and is subject to change on any given day; based upon perceptions of market directions. All assets in this portfolio are in tax-sheltered accounts; and any fund distributions are reinvested in the funds. Gains or losses are computed from actual account values.
While looking around..... Apparently, this house in reality, is running a market neutral fund. :) I jabbered enough about my market perspective and the challenges in the PRE funds boat note on the 30th; this section, this week will be about the "what to do now" aspect of our portfolio; if indeed any actions are required. A first note that M* indicates that the portfolio has an overall yield of 4.27%. This write generally reflects thoughts with our bond holdings, being the biggest chuck of our money; but must be countered with the actions of the equity holdings and forward directions, and in particular, our high yield/income bond funds with their more related linkage to actions of the equity cousins. A non-scientific look at HY bonds vs equity actions since August 1, shows that for every 1% decline in a broad U.S. equity index, one would find about a 1/3% price decline in the HY area. This changed this past Friday, Sept 30; when HY price declines just about matched the decline of pricing in the broad equity area; and finally pushed our HY funds to mostly negatives for YTD. 'Course this action has caused yields to increase to higher and tempting levels; but at the cost of lost NAV. A few considerations of cause and effect in the next 6-12 months; as I still feel that the complex nature of "fixes" for the U.S. and Europe will remain entangled by and with political and legal (in the case of Europe) problems with the likely overhang of whether any "fixes" or decisions are credible and/or proper to the point of being real fixes:
1. The last quarter of the year for the fund managers is here and now. Some equity fund mgrs are in the "rock and hard place" zone, somewhat locked in place by the prospectus. Some bond funds are also similarly stuck. So, as usual; one must decide the who, what and where of matching a fund type to what one feels may be the market actions of the next 6-12 months. This is where the "flex" (in and out of a sector, without having to wait until the end of the trading day) of using an etf fund is of value; and no less, the ability via prospectus and finely tuned manager(s) decisions for a traditional mutual fund.
2. Pension funds: These folks will always maintain a core bond postion of some flavor or another. Based upon their internal forecasts for forward equity actions; and their need to generate cash flow, I anticipate accelerated bond yield chasing, i.e.; reworking and re-allocation of their bond sectors. This may bode well for support in the HY and other bond sectors.
3. Mutual funds: The same thinking applies to some bond funds. The "late to the party" crowd are moving more monies to U.S. bond issues.....Pimco, TCW and others. I suppose they have become believers to the serious problems. I sure don't know how Mr. Gross and co. missed this move, being Pimco gave birth to the "new normal".
4. The continued strength of the U.S. dollar; albeit, perhaps only for the next 6-12 months does indeed affect values of funds. If and when this does flip downward again, one's dollar will buy more of whatever that is not denominated in $US; if you catch the near top, before the down move.
So, what to do? Monday will tell this house more; but we may sell down some percentage (25%) of HY) and move the monies to a more flexible bond fund to allow for the decisions of management among what type of bonds to hold. We have no reason to "whine" about our HY/HI holdings, as these have been held since May/June of 2009 and have paid us well. 'Course this has not worked very well with having Pimco manage our holdings in PTTRX; and sadly, this is the only bond fund available in one retirement plan. So, we are stuck with this for now. Perhaps strange to some, is why we would hold FSAGX in such an economic environment. Our house will place this holding in line with the need to have insurance on the house and cars. The money is there for some protection that may never be needed; but may be foolish to "not" have. As to our current equity holdings, well; a real head scratcher with these, as our percentage is not very large, but continued down moves of these will still "nickel and dime" our losses. Fido Select Auto, Fido commodity holdings and CAMAX are the only real big dogs, YTD. Auto is in play as to some of the companies held that support select areas (Auto Zone/related) as many folks are going to fix and not buy good used or new vehicles. We are also "betting" on earnings of auto companies with sales in the asian markets. Fido commodities fund is a tough one, too. We still feel that the equity holdings here are being beat up with the rest of the equity markets, but not for any real and proper reason. Yes, some of the holdings are related to real demands in some sectors....copper, etc.; which have real uses in growing economies; but there is a "real" base of use and need for the energy and agriculture sectors of this fund.
I thought this would be a more clear cut and easier write, that this house was just going to sell this or that; and move the monies to such and such fund(s). A weekend of pondering this has not brought forth a more clear vision. :):):) I sure as heck hope I/we have not just added to the "confusion" of the markets. I suppose that this house can not whine too much for our YTD performance; but, with what we are invested in, the ride down has been much slower for the past 2 months; but this portfolio also takes much more time to recover to higher YTD levels.
Such are the numerous battles with investments attempting to capture a decent return and minimize the risk.
We live and invest in interesting times, eh?
Hey, I probably forgot something; and hopefully the words make some sense.
Comments and questions always welcomed.
Good fortune to you, yours and the investments.
Take care,
Catch
SELLs/BUYs THIS PAST WEEK:
NONE
Portfolio Thoughts:
Our holdings had a -.89 % move this past week. And yes, we are satisfied with our risk adjusted returns YTD. If the portfolio can pull a +10 to 12% for the year; you will not hear any whining from this house. (This sentence was from an April write; and I/we suppose a +5% for the year may now look good, too !) Our portfolio is at - 4.7 % from the high point in mid-July.
The old Funds Boat may make 5% or 25% this year. I expect some rough waters, changing winds and opposing currents; causing the most serious attention being given to a firm hand upon the rudder control. (April report text)
The immediate below % of holdings are only determined by a "fund" name, NO M* profile this week
CASH = 8.3%
Mixed bond funds = 81.8%
Equity funds = 9.9%
-Investment grade bond funds 18.6%
-Diversified bond funds 18.5%
-HY/HI bond funds 25.8%
-Total bond funds 14.6%
-Foreign EM/debt bond funds 4.3%
-U.S./Int'l equity/speciality funds 9.9%
This is our current list: (NOTE: I have added a speciality grouping below for a few of fund types)
ALSO, this week indicates yield/YTD data after the fund name
---High Yield/High Income Bond funds
FAGIX Fid Capital & Income (6.4%/-6.5%)
SPHIX Fid High Income (6.9%/-2.8%)
FHIIX Fed High Income (8%/-1.2%)
DIHYX TransAmerica HY (8.6%/-1%)
DHOAX Delaware HY (front load waived) (6.7%/-4.9%)
---Total Bond funds
FTBFX Fid Total (3.3%/+5.5%)
PTTRX Pimco Total (3.3%/+1.9%)
---Investment Grade Bonds
APOIX Amer. Cent. TIPS Bond (2.4%/+7.7%)
DGCIX Delaware Corp. Bd (5.2%/+4.8%)
FBNDX Fid Invest Grade (2.8%/+6.6%)
FINPX Fidelity TIPS Bond (.8%/+10.2%)
OPBYX Oppenheimer Core Bond (4.9%/6.2%)
---Global/Diversified Bonds
FSICX Fid Strategic Income (4.5%/+1.7%)
FNMIX Fid New Markets (5.2%/+2.4%)
DPFFX Delaware Diversified (4.4%/+4.2%)
TEGBX Templeton Global (load waived) (5.3%/-3.9%)
LSBDX Loomis Sayles (5.7%/+1.2%)
---Speciality Funds (sectors or mixed allocation)
FCVSX Fidelity Convertible Securities (bond/equity mix) (3.7%/-12.4%)
FRIFX Fidelity Real Estate Income (bond/equity mix) (5.3%/-1.2%)
FSAVX Fidelity Select Auto (0%/-32%)
FFGCX Fidelity Global Commodity (1.2%/-24%)
FDLSX Fidelity Select Leisure (.6%/-8.5%)
FSAGX Fidelity Select Precious Metals (0%/-11%)
RNCOX RiverNorth Core Opportunity (bond/equity) (2.9%/-8.2%)
---Equity-Domestic/Foreign
CAMAX Cambiar Aggressive Value (.3%/-26%)
FDVLX Fidelity Value (1.5%/-16.9%)
FSLVX Fidelity Lg. Cap Value (1.4%/-12.6%)
FLPSX Fidelity Low Price Stock (.7%/-8.6%)

Howdy hank,
I read through a bit of the NPR transcript; and I have also watched many WB interviews over the years. He is in a different monetary position vs this house; so, I guess how he views the markets and/or time frames will be different.
From part of the transcript:
"GHARIB: I know you don`t like to be asked about your outlook for the market. But what is your outlook? Are you bullish or bearish?
BUFFETT: I never had a view on that, Susie. I never will. I am enormously bullish on this country over time but I don`t have the faintest idea what the market is going to do in the next five minutes or the next five months. And I don`t pay any attention to it. We bought in the fourth quarter, $4 billion net, of common stocks. Not (INAUDIBLE) Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), $4 billion. I don`t know whether those stocks are going to go up or down next month and I don`t care. I`d like it better if they go down because we`re buying more of them all the time. I just don`t think about the market.
GHARIB: How do you feel about your big investment in Bank of America (NYSE: BAC)? The stock is lower than what it was when you bought it.
BUFFETT: I bought it to hold probably at least 10 years. So it just doesn`t make any difference"
Well, this house has to think about the market here and elsewhere; and the cost of healthcare going forward and all the other pieces of a retirement pie when there is no longer cash flow into the house from an employer/work; the time when one must rely upon their past abilities and means to save and grow money for use today and into the unknown length of one's live span.
Mr. Buffet does not have a monetary concern that would cause him to be "edgy" about the economy; but there sure are many millions in the country who are edgy. I most sincerely hope "things" become smoothed out a bit. The policio's are still sitt'in on their asses as far as I can determine; and there isn't time today for just sitt'in. The clock is a ticking................
Everyone who has a defined pension plan should sure as hell hope that whomever is running the plan knows what they are doing; lest the plan falls short of the ability to pay. At such a point, it obviously does not matter what any prior obligation to a retired employee may have been..........cause there ain't no more money, period. This happened recently in Falls Church, Rhode Island (if memory serves me well).
As I noted in the start of this thread; the issues are very complex for here and Europe, but the clocks keep on ticking away; whether Greenwich Mean Time or Pacific.
I/we too, sure would like to be a much happier camper.
Regards,
Catch

Howdy Ron,
You noted; "If you didn't get out, too late now. Asset allocation is most important. If the risk is getting too hard, perhaps less equity and more cash/fixed income will help."
I, of course; have no clue as to your current holdings or your holdings 3 years ago during that market melt. I also do not know whether you are near retirement or 20 years to retirement. This aspect usually contributes to one's view of risk and reward; among the many other variables.
As to the too late; how do you personally identify what is too late, and which sectors?
I watched this same market action from the very peak of value of our portfolio that topped out on Oct. 31, 2007. I/we then watched the gyrations and some losses and then dumped 87% of our equity holdings around June 15, 2008 and then continued to find those funds "kinda' hang in there until the "melt". We ended down -8% for 2008.
As to the too late....what if the broad markets have another -25% house cleaning over the next 6-12 months? That would not make today as a too late, eh?
I don't know whether you look at our weekly Funds Boat posting; but we already have a large portion dedicated too to a variety of bond funds.
Regards,
Catch

getting back on track
http://individual.troweprice.com/public/Retail/Planning-&-Research/T.-Rowe-Price-Insights/Personal-Finance/Retirement-Savings-Getting-Back-on-Track?placementGUID=em_id_cor&creativeGUID=EMBDHT&v_sd=201109
more $$ printing
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article30666.html
2 funds that keep you calm and balance
http://www.forbes.com/sites/katestalter/2011/09/26/2-funds-to-keep-you-calm-and-balanced/
playing to win the game
http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20110925/REG/309259962

Hi Derf,
The institutional class of this fund, AQRIX, is available for no minimum in Fidelity retirement accounts with an initial $75 transaction fee; additional purchases may be made for $5 each using their AIP. We own a small position in AQRIX, which has been poorly correlated since inception with its bogey, VBINX, along with pretty much every asset class, including such funds as SPY, EFA, BND, TGBAX, PAUIX, and DBC. I will be adding to this fund gradually, as a diversifier in my portfolio, with a target 5% allocation.
Kevin

US ENCONOMY/GOLD/SILVER & MORE
http://news.goldseek.com/InternationalForecaster/1317011064.php
don't remember if I've already post this article
http://www.pimco.com/EN/Insights/Pages/MuniVeteransDiscussEconomy.aspx
http://finance.yahoo.com/focus-retirement/article/113550/protect-young-investors-from-baby-boom-bust-reuters?mod=fidelity-startingout&cat=fidelity_2010_starting_out
crash
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/commodity-crash-hand-gold-silver-prices-tank-180226986.html?sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=

A Saturday Morn'in Hello,
On the go a bit today, and will do some Funds Boat writing later. The below numbers/list is from MSN finance and they do match return numbers from M*. Hopefully, following and matching the YTD and other time frames as you read across the page is not too nasty; as the format is the best I can provide.
Obviously, the "large AUM funds" below do not have much relationship to our holdings for a comparison; but may be of value purely for looking at the numbers in these areas. The other two areas of conservative/moderate/balanced funds have more of a relationship to our holdings.
This is the MSN link, and there is a "back" feature near the end of any funds group list to get one back to the fund type choices list...the easiest method to use:
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/partsub/funds/topfunds.asp
Anyway, a quick and dirty look at some numbers.....
Regards,
Catch
LARGE FUNDS*, by $'s invested/AUM
Symbol Company Net Assets Morningstar Stars YTD 1-year 3-year 5-year
VTSMX Vanguard Total Stock Mkt Idx Inv 58.72 Bil 4 -9.27 3.19 1.06 -0.25
AGTHX American Funds Growth Fund of Amer A 57.08 Bil 3 -10.91 -0.26 -0.24 -0.35
FCNTX Fidelity Contrafund 57.05 Bil 4 -5.76 4.71 3.19 3.05
CAIBX American Funds Capital Inc Bldr A 55.90 Bil 3 -4.09 0.35 1.79 1.13
AMECX American Funds Inc Fund of Amer A 51.18 Bil 3 -3.03 2.99 3.86 1.39
VFIAX Vanguard 500 Index Admiral 49.87 Bil 4 -8.33 3.04 0.79 -0.76
CWGIX American Funds Capital World G/I A 48.36 Bil 4 -14.32 -8.40 -1.55 -0.48
VTSAX Vanguard Total Stock Mkt Idx Adm 47.45 Bil 4 -9.22 3.28 1.16 -0.16
AIVSX American Funds Invmt Co of Amer A 43.10 Bil 3 -11.09 -1.53 -0.21 -1.59
DODFX Dodge & Cox International Stock 40.30 Bil 4 -21.23 -12.77 -2.39 -2.33
CONSERVATIVE ALLOCATION/BALANCED
SHORT TERM*
Symbol Company 3-month YTD 1-year 3-year 5-year
HSTRX Hussman Strategic Total Return 2.45 3.55 3.50 5.25 7.78
WICAX Waddell & Reed InvestEd Cnsrv A -0.19 2.18 2.13 4.16 4.46
SNSAX SAAT Defensive Strategy A -0.07 1.86 2.54 1.74 0.84
MATRX GAMCO Mathers AAA NA -1.00 -2.08 -1.97 -0.30
TPDAX Timothy Plan Defensive Strategies A -0.08 4.72 11.39 NA NA
TPDCX Timothy Plan Defensive Strategies C -0.26 4.33 10.69 NA NA
ASENX Aston Dynamic Allocation N -0.63 -0.21 9.18 5.18 NA
FMUAX Federated Muni and Stock Advantage A -0.70 4.45 4.43 3.96 1.87
FMUFX Federated Muni and Stock Advantage F -0.70 4.44 4.43 4.01 NA
FMNBX Federated Muni and Stock Advantage B -0.89 3.92 3.65 3.18 1.10
LONG TERM**
Symbol Company 3-month YTD 1-year 3-year 5-year
APIUX API Efficient Frontier Income A -9.79 -6.69 -3.63 15.87 6.80
AFFIX API Efficient Frontier Income C -9.81 -6.74 -3.74 15.36 6.08
FFSAX Fifth Third Strategic Inc A -1.49 3.05 4.20 15.30 4.49
FRACX Fifth Third Strategic Inc Inv C -1.59 2.53 3.48 14.49 3.82
PRPFX Permanent Portfolio -3.96 0.61 9.69 9.41 9.26
BERIX Berwyn Income -3.36 -0.88 3.10 8.67 7.16
VWIAX Vanguard Wellesley Income Adm -1.47 3.41 5.61 8.52 5.67
VWINX Vanguard Wellesley Income Inv -1.44 3.35 5.59 8.44 5.58
DFIAX Delaware Foundation Cnsrv Allc A -5.04 -1.75 1.95 8.04 4.66
DFIRX Delaware Foundation Cnsrv Allc R -5.11 -1.94 1.68 7.79 4.41
MODERATE ALLOCATION/BALANCED
SHORT TERM*
Symbol Company 3-month YTD 1-year 3-year 5-year
JADHX JHT Core Diversified Gr & Inc Ser III 0.71 5.36 18.57 3.92 NA
JADNX JHT Core Diversified Gr & Inc Ser NAV 0.71 5.45 18.74 4.11 NA
SIRRX Sierra Core Retirement R -0.61 2.71 3.26 13.11 NA
SIRAX Sierra Core Retirement A -0.49 2.66 3.05 12.89 NA
CPMPX Changing Parameters -0.53 0.53 3.45 0.68 NA
SIRCX Sierra Core Retirement C -0.65 2.17 2.32 NA NA
AAXAX Adaptive Allocation A -1.69 -1.16 12.20 NA NA
AAXCX Adaptive Allocation C -2.07 -1.71 11.12 7.98 2.31
MOBAX Aston/Montag & Caldwell Balanced N -2.92 -1.41 4.28 3.58 4.42
HBFBX Hennessy Balanced -3.17 0.27 4.19 3.53 0.91
LONG TERM**
Symbol Company 3-month YTD 1-year 3-year 5-year
SIRRX Sierra Core Retirement R -0.40 2.71 3.35 13.16 NA
SIRAX Sierra Core Retirement A -0.70 2.49 2.91 12.85 NA
BRUFX Bruce -6.67 1.78 11.68 12.79 3.93
RNCOX RiverNorth Core Opportunity -10.19 -7.39 0.86 10.03 NA
AAXCX Adaptive Allocation C -2.07 -1.71 11.12 7.98 2.31
IBALX Transamerica Balanced A -6.17 -3.22 8.22 6.97 4.12
ICMBX Intrepid Capital -6.69 -4.89 2.31 7.20 6.49
FBLAX Franklin Balanced A -7.76 -5.34 2.36 6.69 2.12
AZNAX Allianz AGIC Income & Growth A -9.16 -7.39 2.09 7.09 NA
AZNDX Allianz AGIC Income & Growth D -9.13 -7.44 2.10 7.09 NA

Reply to @catch22: I totally agree. Corporations should get out of the business of picking funds and the 401k, 403 type of account should be liberated.
I am actually pissed of various different type of account for different purposes. We do have IRA, Roth IRA, 401k, 529 Collage Savings Account, HSA accounts. There should be one type of tax advantaged account that cater for multiple purposes. The money is fragmented unnecessarily and also you cannot always determine in advance (actually usually) what amount you would need for what purpose (Retirement, College, Health Savings)

Ah, the grand plan would be a "federal law" for 401k, 403b, 457 or similar retirement programs to be mandated to offer a Schwab type of plan (a personal account) or a Fido brokerage acct. type and/or what any other vendor may provide that is similar; so that the retirement plan investor has a very large base of the fund/eft world open to them. All plans would have a "stable value" (psuedo bond fund) choice, too.
M*'s list is too small and to me the obvious choice situation is for a "plan" to be wide open......period.
The burden of decisions and related for such a setup would remove a cost and time eating function of HR depts. for companies.
We know that many companies providing retirement plans do not, have not and will not have much vision as to which vendor and/or choices to offer to an employee for choices of investments.
I have viewed numerous plans over the years and wished that my 401k could have such wonderful choices. For employees, it is a by chance situation, dependent upon who they happen to be employed.
I asked too many times over the years of my plan admins; where are the inflation protection choices and such. Heck, this is not their area of expertise running an HR function. I am most positvie that none of them had a clue about choices in a plan; and yet someone made a plan choice that I must live with; from those who are clueless.
I found too many times a superfluous/redundant list of similar choices of too many overlapping offerings. I don't need 5 each of small/mid/large caps. Take a few of those away and give me access to TIPS, commodities and a metals fund.
Many plans that I have viewed lack what we here know to be the options for a well diversified investment basket; if one is inclined to set such a goal.
Regards,
Catch