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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Investors Cloud The Crystal Ball
    Recently, mfs posted one of Old_Skeet's portfolio's dating back to December of 2015 that was linked back in 2016. For easy reference I am providing this same link beow.
    http://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/24926/old-skeet-s-new-portfolio-asset-allocations-2016
    As there has been a good bit of changes in the holdings since then I am linking through this post the most current portfolio's holdings. A good bit of money has been moved left within the portfolio (since December of 15) into more conserative investments as the stock market has become more richly priced. Some sleeves and their holdings have been increased while others have been reduced. The growth area of the portfolio is where I am the most active with positioning naturally some takes place within the other sleeves as well. In tracking my portfolio through Morningstar Portfolio Manager it has had an investment return (excluding cash) year-to-date through July 2017 of 9.1% and for my bogey (The Lipper Balanced Index) 8.4%.
    So, where did the money go?
    From the reduction in the number of funds held in the growth & income area, the domestic equity sleeve was reduced from six funds to three funds. In the growth area funds were reduced from six to three in the global growth sleeve and from four to three in the large/mid cap sleeve. These monies were used to expand the holdings in the income area form thirteen funds to eighteen along with restablishing my CD ladder. So, indeed a good bit of money was moved left within the portfolio while some was added to current positions in the growth & income and growth areas plus there were also a holding change made within the global hybrid sleeve and some funds were moved from one sleeve to another. So, with this one can see Old_Skeet had indeed been active.
    Sleeve Management System ... Here is how it works.
    Now being in retirement here is a brief description of my sleeve management system which I organized to help better manage the investments held within mine & my wife’s combined portfolios. Currently, the master portfolio is comprised of two taxable investment accounts, two self directed retirement accounts, a health savings account plus two bank accounts. With this, I came up with four investment areas. They are a cash area which consist of two sleeves … an investment cash sleeve and a demand cash sleeve. The next area is the income area which consists of two sleeves … a fixed income sleeve and a hybrid income sleeve. Then there is the growth & income area which has more risk associated with it than the income area and it consist of four sleeves … a global equity sleeve, a global hybrid sleeve, a domestic equity sleeve and a domestic hybrid sleeve. An finally there is the growth area, where the most risk in the portfolio is found and it consist of five sleeves … a global sleeve, a large/mid cap sleeve, a small/mid cap sleeve, a specialty/theme sleeve plus a special investment (spiff) sleeve. Each sleeve (in most cases) consists of three to nine funds with the size and the weight of each sleeve can easily be adjusted, from time-to-time, by adjusting the number of funds and amounts held. By using the sleeve system one can get a better picture of their overall investment landscape and weightings by sleeve and area. In addition, I have found it beneficial to Xray each fund, each sleeve, each investment area, and the portfolio as a whole quarterly. Again, weightings can be adjusted form time-to-time as to how I might be reading the markets along with using a market barometer that drives an equity allocation weighting matrix as an aid to help set the stock allocation weighting. All funds pay their distributions to the cash area of the portfolio with the exception being those in my health savings accounts where reinvestment occurs. With the other accounts paying to the cash area builds the cash area of the portfolio to meet the portfolio’s monthly cash disbursement amount (if necessary) with the residual being left for new investment opportunity. Generally, in any one year, I take no more than a sum equal to one half of my portfolio’s average five year return. In this way, principal builds over time. In addition, most buy/sell trades settle from, or to, the cash area with some net asset value exchanges between funds taking place between funds.
    Last revised: 07/31/2017 Master Portfolio
    Here is how I have my asset allocation broken out in percent ranges, by area. My neutral allocation weightings are cash 20%, income 30%, growth & income 35%, growth & other assets 15%. I do an Instant Xray analysis on the portfolio quarterly (sometimes monthly) and make asset weighting adjustments as I feel warranted based upon my assessment of the market, my risk tolerance, cash needs, etc. Currently, according to Morningstar Instant Xray, I am about 20% in the cash area, 25% in the income area, 35% domestic stock area, 15% foreign stock area & 5% in the other asset area. In addition, I have the portfolio set up in Morningstar’s Portfolio Manager by sleeve and as a whole for easy monitoring plus I use brokerage account statements along with some other Morningstar reports for information and tools helpful in managing the portfolio.
    Cash Area (Weighting Range 15% to 25% with neutral weighting being 20%)
    Demand Cash Sleeve… (Cash Distribution Accrual & Future Investment Accrual)
    Investment Cash Sleeve … (Savings & Time Deposits)
    Income Area (Weighting Range 25% to 35% with neutral weighting being 30%)
    Fixed Income Sleeve: BAICX, CTFAX, FMTNX, GIFAX, LALDX, LBNDX, NEFZX, THIFX & TSIAX
    Hybrid Income Sleeve: APIUX, AZNAX, CAPAX, DIFAX, FISCX, FKINX, ISFAX, JNBAX & PGBAX
    Growth & Income Area (Weighting Range 30% to 40% with neutral being 35%)
    Global Equity Sleeve: CWGIX, DEQAX & EADIX
    Global Hybrid Sleeve: CAIBX, PMAIX & TIBAX
    Domestic Equity Sleeve: ANCFX, FDSAX & SVAAX
    Domestic Hybrid Sleeve: ABALX, AMECX, DDIAX, FBLAX, FRINX, HWIAX & LABFX
    Growth Area (Weighting Range 10% to 20% with neutral weighting being 15%)
    Global Sleeve: ANWPX, SMCWX & THOAX
    Large/Mid Cap Sleeve: AGTHX, SPECX & VADAX
    Small/Mid Cap Sleeve: PCVAX, PMDAX & TSVAX
    Specialty & Theme Sleeve: LPEFX, PGUAX & NEWFX
    Spiff Sleeve: None at this time.
    Total Number of Mutual Fund Positions = 46
  • Josh Brown; You Have Five Choices
    I'm not bothered at all by the pitch at the end. Pretty mild. Not a worse ad than so much other. Interesting article. Choice 6, or maybe it's choice 5 modified, is to consider going with the algorithm of CAPE the etn.
  • Guggenheim cuts in half its fees on S + P 500 equal weight etf
    I never look at ER particularly unless egregious.
    Everyone might want to look at RPV and RPG too, but I understand the MC appeal of RSP. I would take CAPE over any of them. But it offers much less MC of course.
  • DSENX and CAPE in portfolio x-ray, how to emulate
    CAPE isn't difficult to emulate with etfs if you have the data to calculate their modified CAPE or you're willing to be off on your timing by about a month. It's just my guess, but because their version of CAPE looks at a sectors CAPE relative to its own history in order to determine whether its cheap or not, I think the chances of longer trends is higher and then being late by a month or so isn't as bad as if the turnover was higher. But that's just a guess.
    DSENX is a lot harder to emulate because of the swaps. You can certainly do the same deal with the etfs and buy another bond fund but most people won't be able to do that with the same money. I think the people who can come close to using the same money twice will have to use futures for the equity exposure and then hold a bond fund that you can access very easily if you end up needing to meet a margin call.
  • DSENX and CAPE in portfolio x-ray, how to emulate
    I think this was discussed. Was there ever a conclusion about how to emulate (simulate) these with other, close-enough funds? M* is helpless, of course.
  • Help me "GROK" why lower crude prices cause broad equity disruption to the downside.....
    It is the volatility that spooks the markets. And when the oil price is high, big oil companies each spend tens of billions a year in capex. With low prices, they cut their capex bugets. Energy touches every aspect of the economy.
  • DSEEX DSENX PIMIX PONDX ; the stars do align, periodically, yes? "Magical Mystery Tour"
    But the CAPE process does not permit discretion, really, right? It's just a system (algorithm).
    Okay, so maybe it is sorta like Belichick...
  • DSEEX DSENX PIMIX PONDX ; the stars do align, periodically, yes? "Magical Mystery Tour"
    @catch, it's a great observation that I have a few additional thoughts about having been a Patriots fan since the '70s and more recently a fan of Doubleline's Enhanced CAPE fund thanks to all the discussions here.
    Both sports, especially football with so many guys playing during a game, and investments, with tens or hundreds of investments, are very complicated systems. The goal, I think, is to put pieces together that work extremely well TOGETHER rather than assembling a collection of 'star' performers that don't work as well together. Belichick has a system and he seems to be extremely good at taking lots of different players over the years and getting them to work together. Quite a few of these players aren't individual stars but he gets so much out of how he gets them to work together that they've been perennial contenders for many years. And, which I think is very important, he's very quick to part with anybody who causes or might cause disruption to the system because the value he gets out of cohesion is far greater than what he could ever get out of an individual star.
    I think the same is probably true for fund managers but they have even more pieces to manage and they don't have the ability to 'teach' anything to their investments to get them to perform 'better' in their system. They do get it right sometimes, occasionally for long periods of time and I would suggest it's not easy to guess when they're going to lose it as Bill Miller did. In the case of the Doubleline funds, most of the performance is rules based and there's no reason to think a set of rules can't work extremely well for some period of time too. The bonds play an important role too and it seems both the math and the bonds have been working very well together since inception. Figuring out if and/or when the math won't work as well isn't easy but it's probably the key to knowing when it's time to move on.
    In another more active example, the Primecap guys have had a team approach to their funds forever and the performance speaks for itself. Since the members of the team manage their pieces with a high degree of autonomy, at least according to what I've been able to read, it has to mean they've put team members together and taught them a system that has worked extremely well together for a very long time. As the team turns over, as it has some through the years, finding new team members who can employ the system and who mesh well with the other team members is probably the biggest source of their success. Since POAGX is my biggest single investment I'm hoping that continues for a long time.
  • DSEEX DSENX PIMIX PONDX ; the stars do align, periodically, yes? "Magical Mystery Tour"
    The Beatles have already established the phrase of "Magical Mystery Tour", but the words appropriately describe some personal investing styles and active managed funds, IMHO.
    Be it musical groups, sports teams, corporations, small private companies or your other choices; the stars do align from cosmic forces, a function of cyclical mathematics or some other energy that one may choose to attempt to define; or perhaps, just by chance; circumstances find certain people and events to discover one another and bind into a positive and overwhelming presence of intellect that is difficult for 99.99% of the world population to comprehend.
    I suspect most folks here have and can define, to a point; a recollection of a sports team or musical group that "just had that superior edge", at least for a given time frame. Although I'm not a big time sports fan and don't fly U of Michigan or Michigan State flags at the house, I do pay attention. Superior head coaches and the selected staffs help build a successful program which results in attracting superior athletes to the sports team. These periods may run for many years and then get "clunked" for any number of reasons. The duration of success for many collegiate teams today is highly impacted by the money draw into professional sports, that finds superior college team players exiting after two years. These magic combinations of managers, staff and players may also be found in professional team sports. One must also consider the other side of the coin into the world of "can't get it right" for long time frames. The Detroit Lions football team comes to my mind for such a circumstance, and especially relative to the New England Patriots, eh?.
    Well, anyway; you get the gist of my thinking, yes?; as related to active managed mutual funds.
    Are these the circumstances behind the superior performance of DSEEX DSENX PIMIX PONDX (both classes noted for the purpose of one's purchase limits)?
    Will this superior performance continue for 1, 2, 3, 5 or 10 more years? Your guess is as good as mine, I imagine.
    Is the risk involved with the magic sauce formula of these funds over and above some threshold of personal investment risk tolerance? Only the individual investor can answer this question, yes? But, one can not argue against the skill of the use of the "magic sauce" by management, at this time, correct?, based upon performance.
    We're investors and have exposure to many forms of investment risk beyond our control and vision. Tis the old adage of "get out of the kitchen, if you can't stand the heat".
    Six month, after inception, slide report DSEEX / DSENX . You may find this document of interest, although the subject matter has been discussed here previously.
    http://www.valuewalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/5-20-2014-CAPE-webcast-slides-Valuation-Its-All-Relative-mailing.pdf
    Alright, the end of the early morning jabber from this house; and moving on to another cup of coffee before starting chores for this day.
    Take care,
    Catch
  • OSTIX, PONDX, PTIAX or ?
    I own PONDX (PIMIX) and PTIAX.
    I've avoided OSTIX, despite its admirable record/returns, as it seems to be junk-focused --- and with corporate credit-spreads so tight, that just is not a place I am personally interested in being right now. Besides the spreads being tight, junk does have a high correlation to equities. So if we enter turbulent times for equities, junk proxies will likely swoon in sympathy. Moreover, the Fed seems to be on a path to yield curve inversion.
    Its true PTIAX currently emphasizes munis taxable and tax-free. OTOH, PIMIX has some EM exposure. In the case of both funds, I am relying on management to navigate through the fixed-income landscape. PTIAX in particular, due to its (relative) diminutive size, should be nimble enough to move in/out of sectors with some aplomb.
    My current bond OEF strategy is to give prominet positions to PIMIX & PTIAX, with some 2dary emphasis to DBLTX and PMZDX. Those latter 2, both mortgage-centric, I view as more defensive than the former two.
    Equities are not cheap. Bonds are not cheap. So which OEF of the 3 to choose may depend on which bond sector you view as "least worst" -- junk (OSTIX), munis (PTIAX) or EM (PONDX). Pick your poison!
  • M*: This Dividend Fund's Quality Screen Gives It A Leg Up: SCHD
    No mention of NOBL and OUSA. An interesting analysis of how they parse their space, but all (I think, did not check in detail) are beaten by CAPE (yes, not notionally a div play per se).
  • Comparing EFT Chart verses Mutual Fund Chart at M*
    @bee,
    Unless I am missing your point, is it not that etf charts are nav or close, no reinvestment, while mfund $10k-growth charts show reinvestment of everything? Compares apple vs apple tree.
    I always start w mfund chart (some SP500 fund, say), and then add whatever I want to analyze. That's the (only) way to see $10k growth of CAPE or AOA or DVY compared w OAKBX and TWEIX, for example.
  • DSE_X style
    I'm not confident the style dot means anything. I took sector etfs from a couple different companies and did an instant X-ray based on the sectors the fund currently holds. They all came out large blend and more on the growth side than value. I can't imagine any way the fund is on the border between small and mid cap ever, they'd have to be inverse market cap weighting the smallest X% of stocks in the sector or something crazy like that, and while I'm a little surprised at the growth leaning I guess I'd chalk it up to the difference between CAPE ratios and current statistics.
  • DSE_X style
    See
    http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/summary?t=DSENX&region=usa&culture=en-US
    Last year style was deemed LC b/w G and V, and this year MCV, deep value actually.
    Is that because the lower SP500 holdings are typically 'smaller' companies?
    M* category remains LV. Benchmark = Russell 1k Value.
    fwiw, M* CAPE entry has almost no data. LV is category.
  • Abby Joseph Cohen: Fixed Income Headed For Trouble
    Andy, wouldn't you like to have lunch with her and CapeCod?
    Ha! I think I'd prefer to be a fly on the wall - any closer, I could get buried by the fur flying ...
  • Abby Joseph Cohen: Fixed Income Headed For Trouble
    Andy, wouldn't you like to have lunch with her and CapeCod?
  • Five Largest Stocks Account For Nearly Half Of 2017’s Gains
    It would be very cool to see what CAPE held and when wrt being in and out of those 5
  • Five Largest Stocks Account For Nearly Half Of 2017’s Gains
    I'm more interested right now in timing overweighting small value. Using PVFIX as my barometer. If even PVFIX is going down, I'm not touching any other SV. While I will admit, like I've said before, small+energy is actually hitting PVFIX hard.
    If it is one thing I've learnt it is to be patient. I did do some movement around S&P 500 in my IRAs. Overweighted international switching some money to target funds. Eliminated Mid Cap Value, and overweighted growth with TRP Inst LG Growth (symbol escapes me).
    I have "Jennison Private Account" or some such fund. Thinking might be close to HACAX, but I don't like investing in funds without ticker.
    In an IRA I'm overweighting using TRBCX. I still have some money in cash because my ANALysis says Mid/Small is rolling over. So not fully invested.
    PS - 275 Pound New York ....WTF? Mail Chauvinist Pig OverTheHill (MCPO)? I really need to understand your Nick...
  • Beating the S&P 500 by choosing its growth or value segment
    I'm not doing timing, and regardless, the arguable appeal of the RG_ set is that they are the opposite of megacap, being equal weighting of the SP500.
    RPG wins over the last decade, while MGV lags even SP500. Interesting.
    Over 5y it's RPV, with all the others bunched.
    So maybe a timing strategy would be the way to go. If only we knew how to do that.
    Over its last 4.5y, CAPE beats all.
    For all these spans, the performance of the two MG_ is inferior.
  • Fund Manager Focus: Nick Clay, Manager, Dreyfus Global Equity Fund (Link #15,000)
    FYI: (Click On Article title At Top Of Google Search) "A Different Perspective on Global Income"
    As a teen, Nick Clay earned money painting landscapes and selling them to American tourists from a store in London’s Covent Garden. He toyed with going to art school but decided it would be more financially prudent to study economics and philosophy at the University of Leeds. Although economics helped him launch his investment career, critical thinking and logic are the basis for most of the work he does today.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.google.com/#q=A+Different+Perspective+on+Global+Income
    M* Snapshot DEQAX:
    http://www.morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/DEQAX/quote.html
    Lipper Snapshot DEQAX:
    http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/deqax
    DEQAX Ranks #36 In The (WS) Fund Category By U.S. News & World Report:
    http://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/world-stock/dreyfus-global-equity-income-fund/deqax