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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Investment advice for disable person
    I avoided mentioning PONDX because I was trying to envision worst-case scenarios going forward. I concur in the take that the longterm future is unlikely to be like the bull past we have enjoyed. Looking chiefly at GOs' UI in Premium, I still think trying to achieve the $24k/y would entail over half but hopefully not two-thirds in DODIX or Vanguard equivalent, with the rest --- as much as comfort-bearable --- in TWEIX / SPLV / CAPE or a combo of them. 40% or more.
    Else VWINX, though I do not think it will quite hit the almost 5%-withdrawal mark.
    Or this might do best, since security is paramount:
    https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=1263&FundIntExt=INT&ps_disable_redirect=true
    or
    https://www.fidelity.com/annuities/immediate-fixed-income-annuities/compare
  • Investment advice for disable person
    The other problem is this. VWINX is an excellent fund because of low fees and good management. These facts will likely continue into the future. But to project its past performance into the future is a mistake. Consider the author of the aforementioned seekingalpha article's premise regarding backtesting. He looks back to January 1, 1992.
    These were the conditions for the market in January 1992:
    Dividend yield of the S&P 500: 3%
    multpl.com/s-p-500-dividend-yield/
    10-Year Treasury yield 7%
    macrotrends.net/2016/10-year-treasury-bond-rate-yield-chart
    10-year Shiller P/E ratio 19
    https://dqydj.com/shiller-pe-cape-ratio-calculator/
    Here is where we are today
    S&P 500 Dividend yield: 1.77%
    10-Year Treasury yield: 2.4%
    10-year Shiller p/e: 34
    To back-test and assume the past from January 1992 is prelude for the future today based on these numbers I think is a mistake. We have lived through a historic period of falling interesting rates and rising stock valuations from 1982 onward. That period as far as interest rates goes is over and I'm not sure how much longer the rising valuations will continue. Creative thinking is necessary.
  • Investment advice for disable person
    @LB, by equity-aggressive I meant proportionally, not the holdings themselves. I would avoid foreign for this person.
    VWINX looks like the choice, yes. Interesting its UI is high-ish (greater than VOOG and DSENX, e.g.).
    If someone was 'managing' >1 fund, I would consider a mix of TWEIX and DODIX if FPURX dents comfort level. SPLV or CAPE could be the equity position instead of TWEIX, of course.
  • Does a Reversion To The Mean Follow Big Up Years?
    Hi Guys,
    Thanks one and all for a very stimulating and detailed discussion exchange.
    Forecasting equity returns is an extremely challenging assignment. Separating "The Signal and the Noise"' is not easy work. The Signal and the Noise is an excellent book authored by Nate Silver. Here is a Link that accesses the full text:
    http://www.stavochka.com/files/Nate_Silver_The_Signal_and_the_Noise.pdf
    Developing some method to reasonably predict upcoming market returns from numerous historical data correlation candidates has escaped just about everyone, including industry giants like Vanguard.
    Here is a Link to a rather exhaustive and comprehensive attempt reported by Vanguard that explored a wide array of potential correlating parameters:
    https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/s338.pdf
    Vanguard does honest work. All correlation attempts failed, including the use of last year's returns to project next year's equity rewards. See Figure 2 in the referenced document. I suppose one response to these forecasting failures is to accept prediction defeat and simply stay invested for the long haul.
    Best Wishes for a happy and prosperous New Year.
  • M*: Fight Inflation With This Low-Cost ETF: (STPZ)
    Not much inflation fighting happening with STPZ; but if one can handle the big swings and have a feel for the markets; go play with the big dog/cousin LTPZ. Have played in this area before and escaped with a decent return, but one has to pay close attention. One could make a living playing this area.
    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?stpz,ltpz
  • Buy, Sell and Ponder December 2017
    I am bullish for the upcoming year, but have just sold a patch of DSENX (post-runup) in a Roth just to be able to think clearly about cash needs (dau wedding) next fall and possible dip buying prior (CAPE vs NOBL vs QUAL vs DGRO).
    Also about $200k <4% heloc with interesting nondeductibility looming. Do I care whether it is 3.75% deductible, or a bit higher?
    Am tracking SOI to buy in Jan, maybe.
    Will be running ORP several times w new tax situations to see about where to fund non-SS cashflow for the year too.
  • Barry Ritholtz: Wall Street Wises Up To The Folly Of Forecasting
    FYI: It is that time of year, when the financial industry engages in its annual ritual of making forecasts, which is usually little more than the prelude to looking foolish. Titles like “Outlook for 2018, “What to expect in the new year,” or some variation thereof litter the landscape. Over the years, it has been my distinct privilege (and truth be told, pleasure) to point out how silly this process is.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-12-15/wall-street-wises-up-to-the-folly-of-forecasting
  • MFO Ratings Updated Through November 2017 ... Best Launches This Year
    Of the 128 alternative & mixed asset funds launched this year, here are the top performers in each: Arabesque Systematic USA (ASUIX), Measured Risk Strategy I (MRPIX), Gotham Master Long (GMLFX), GMO Climate Change III (GCCHX), DoubleLine Shiller Enhanced International CAPE I (DSEUX), Driehaus Multi-Asset Growth Economies (DMAGX) ...
    image
  • DoubleLine Shiller Enhanced CAPE down -6.5% today?
    Is this an error, or what the heck happened? DSENX down -6.45%. That's what I see on my Schwab account.
  • DoubleLine Fund Doubles The Returns Of Rivals By Uncovering A Curious Strategy: (DSENX)
    Couldn't resist the visual look to satisfy my curious brain. I also have been watching as to or if the "value" area is going to receive a more aggressive bump up.....and there is a bit here now.
    Nov. 2013 to date:
    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?DSEEX,CAPE,JKF,JKE&n=1023&O=011000
    Last 6 months to date:
    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?DSEEX,CAPE,JKF,JKE&p=3&O=011000
  • DoubleLine Fund Doubles The Returns Of Rivals By Uncovering A Curious Strategy: (DSENX)
    Interesting. If you graph CAPE $10k growth over 4/3/2/1y/ytd you could argue CAPE tracks JKF (meaning its wiggles) rather more closely than JKE --- except for the last year, when CAPE has moved more like JKE. Fwiw.
  • DoubleLine Fund Doubles The Returns Of Rivals By Uncovering A Curious Strategy: (DSENX)
    @LLJB - nice description. I agree that the writer probably doesn't understand the fund or the index. I suspect that cause of the mischaracterization can be laid at M*'s feet. They're the ones classifying this fund (and the CAPE ETN) as LCV.
    There's another part of the description that's wrong, though it seems almost everyone gets that wrong. The CAPE index does not pick among the 10 S&P sectors. For one thing, the index added real estate, which is not an S&P sector, but (per prospectus) comes the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index.
    There are 10 S&P sectors, so that would seem to add up to a pool of 11 sectors. But the index combines two S&P sectors (technology and telecom) into one.
    Here's a table of those 10 "real" S&P sectors along with dated info on their CAPE ratios.
    http://siblisresearch.com/data/cape-ratios-by-sector/
  • DoubleLine Fund Doubles The Returns Of Rivals By Uncovering A Curious Strategy: (DSENX)
    Another guy writing stuff that's misleading, probably because he doesn't understand it. Do an instant X-ray on the 4 sector etfs in the fund and you'll find out it is NOT a value fund. I haven't tried to test that over its entire history but I'd be surprised if it's ever been a value fund based on M*'s definitions and how other funds are classified. When I've done that in the past it has always ended up as a growth fund or a blend fund close to the border with growth. People naturally think investing in the 4 lowest CAPE sectors (excluding whichever one of the "cheapest" 5 has the worst momentum) is a value approach and maybe it is, but that's not what this fund is doing. It's investing in 4 of the cheapest 5 based on the CAPE ratio relative to it's own history. So if technology has traded at an average CAPE ratio of 400 over the last 10 or 20 years (sorry, can't remember the precise details) and its only trading at a CAPE ratio of 300 today while Energy is trading at 25 today but has historically traded at 20, then technology is the "cheaper" sector in ranking terms for determining the funds investments.
    The approach has worked very well and may continue to work but it has not led to a "value" portfolio based on the definitions M* uses to categorize other funds, it's not necessarily invested in sectors with the lowest traditional CAPE value and it's the traditional CAPE value that has proven more predictive of future (long-term) performance than most other things.
    Outperforming value funds when it has "growth" investments is meaningless even if people keep writing about the fund that way. Buyer beware!! For transparency sake I do own the fund and I like it. I just don't appreciate the way it tends to be written about because I think it's likely to make people believe they're getting something that they really aren't.
  • Fidelity Outage Sidelines Retail Customers, But Advisers Not Affected
    FYI: (Click On Article Title At Top Of Google Search)
    Millions of Fidelity Investment's retail customers were unable to access their online accounts on Wednesday morning due to an internal technical error, according to CNBC and other news outlets, but the outage did not appear to affect advisers using the firm's institutional online trading and wealth management platform, WealthScape.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&amp;ei=BM4fWqKGJsnF_QawxYywBA&amp;q=Fidelity+outage+sidelines+retail+customers,+but+advisers+not+affected&amp;oq=Fidelity+outage+sidelines+retail+customers,+but+advisers+not+affected&amp;gs_l=psy-ab.3...3625.3625.0.5284.3.2.0.0.0.0.77.77.1.2.0....0...1c.2.64.psy-ab..1.1.83.6..35i39k1.83.k8NRAZNeTR4
  • Dukester's Fund Corner III
    Also what do you think of Matthews? I used to own 2 of their funds. Now, none. I now think of them as overpriced and under achieving. Just me saying.....
    If someone wants to weight the Asian region on their own, I personally think Matthews funds are the best way to do that. I own SFGIX though, which has a heavy dose of Asia, both developed and EM. GPGOX also is quite heavy Asia. In fact, M* xray has my portfolio over-weight Asia in the foreign sector. These fund managers are a bit smarter then me, so I don't think I need a sector or region fund. To me it dilutes their (my fund managers) expertise. Hell, that's why I'm paying them. :)
    All that (regional weighting) said though, I am strongly considering combining my percentage in DSENX fund with DLEUX to get a bit more of the CAPE value theme with developed European. Same process, more value(?) That's my thinking anyway.
  • A Bond Fund To Be Thankful For: (DODIX)
    " - And yes, I have reported (my "technique") that one who purchases DoubleLine NTF / higher-ER class shares at Fido can get them reclassified for free at DoubleLine to the lower-ER class once above a certain $ amount.
    - This last procedure has nothing to do with anything else.
    "
    You do sound emphatic that this has nothing to do with anything else, including BCOIX.
    "And yes, I am saying that Fido says one cannot buy BCOIX for other than a $50 TF, and moreover with a 25k min except for self retirement accounts, where the min is $500. "
    I'll admit that I haven't asked Fidelity about this Baird fund specifically, but I have verified in the past that they'll let you convert Baird funds with no TF.
    "As for transferring TF fund shares from one brokerage to another, I don't know much about that, never having bought (rightly or wrongly) TF fund shares. I don't know anything about other ways to escape TFs. I think someone here posted that the receiving brokerage sometimes pays one's fees of that sort. Certainly some give plain bonuses for transferring, though not Fidelity except in the form of lower-commission or some free trades. ML otoh pays serious moneys for transferring, depending on amounts"
    As I've posted before, the fact that Fidelity does not currently have a cash offer on the table does not mean that it has not done so in the past or will not do so again in the future.
    I have had positions in TF funds at Fidelity that I opened at no cost at another brokerage. When I closed that other account, I moved all the positions in kind to Fidelity. In fact, I opened a half dozen funds for free specifically to create open positions at Fidelity should I later choose to invest more than a small amount in them. Of course they were carefully selected funds; I wasn't going to open up dozens of junk funds "just in case".
    I've also opened funds directly with the distributor when they were closed at brokerages, for the sole purpose of transferring them to my brokerage account. That can often be an easier process than going through a brokerage.
    It's not that I'm insensitive to cost. It's that I'm willing to put in little sweat equity to get something that's both cheap and ultimately convenient. I'm also willing to pay a few bucks for convenience, but not much. Certainly not $75 - I'll do that to get cheaper shares (institutional TF vs. 12b-1 NTF); I won't pay $75 for convenience alone.
    Everyone has their own threshold. Yours sounds like $0. But just in case it's a little higher, you might want to check out your ML account's fee schedule for purchases and transfers. Just follow this link (you'll have to log in):
    https://olui2.fs.ml.com/RelationshipPricing/CommissionsAndFees.aspx
  • A Bond Fund To Be Thankful For: (DODIX)
    ? Not quite following the misapprehension, but:
    - Yes, I am saying that Fido says one cannot buy DODIX for other than a $75 TF.
    - And yes, I am saying that Fido says one cannot buy BCOIX for other than a $50 TF, and moreover with a 25k min except for self retirement accounts, where the min is $500.
    - No, I have had nothing other in mind all along.
    - And yes, I have reported (my "technique") that one who purchases DoubleLine NTF / higher-ER class shares at Fido can get them reclassified for free at DoubleLine to the lower-ER class once above a certain $ amount.
    - This last procedure has nothing to do with anything else.
    As for transferring TF fund shares from one brokerage to another, I don't know much about that, never having bought (rightly or wrongly) TF fund shares. I don't know anything about other ways to escape TFs. I think someone here posted that the receiving brokerage sometimes pays one's fees of that sort. Certainly some give plain bonuses for transferring, though not Fidelity except in the form of lower-commission or some free trades. ML otoh pays serious moneys for transferring, depending on amounts.
    HTH.
  • Ben Carlson: Caution Alone Is Not An Investment Strategy
    Hi Guys,
    Diversification is easy to say, simple to do, but tends to sacrifice returns for reduced volatility. If you change your diversification category allocations dependent on perceived economic and/or market conditions that is a thinly disguised form of timing. It is a doable strategy but does require insights to be successful that escape most investors, and that includes professionals.
    Class correlations do change as a function of time, but are just as hard to project as selecting winning stocks. It's never easy and simple. The Portfolio Visualizer site provides class returns and correlation data for various input timeframes. Here is the Link to that useful data source:
    https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/asset-class-correlations
    Good luck and good timing if you deploy this strategy for your own portfolio.
    Best Wishes
  • Your Choice: One Mutual Fund to Hold For the Next 10-15 Years
    It's not a bad choice but he dismissed a lot of possibilities without much consideration. It sounds like he started with the answer and needed to write a 300 word article (or whatever it is) to get there. If you've got 15 years then Schiller's CAPE ratio is pretty much the best predictor that's been found and that wouldn't really lead you to US stocks at this point.