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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • What Are You Buying ... Selling ... or Pondering?
    Sold BUFTX and bought REGL. Only MF I have added to recently is DSENX. In the past 12 months have moved more $ into ETFs: XMLV, CAPE, MOAT and in most cases sold MFs. Looking at DEULX, however.
  • Bond news letter???
    Ran into this .Good chart of nearly every domestic index's performance in time frames dating to the past five years.
    So, is there magic in the post-election sprinkling of Trump Fairy Dust? I am encouraged by many of the ideas put forth, especially on tax reform as a way to unleash America's potential (less excited about other ideas). Consumer sentiment and small business confidence rose sharply following the election, suggesting the positive feelings or animal spirits are on the rise. That said, experience tells us that the political sausage grinder has a way of neutering the most well-intentioned plans, and that the economy continues to struggle to achieve "escape velocity,” constrained by low productivity and labor force growth. Still, pull up a chair and grab some popcorn: I expect an exciting show!
    https://www.ridgeworth.com/articles/market-perspective-december-31-2016
    Here's a longer perspective on the Trump Effect
    SEIX BOUTIQUE PERSPECTIVE (CAN TRUMP MAKE BONDS GREAT AGAIN?)
    December 5, 2016 However, the structural issues will continue to serve as headwinds to growth as they have for the duration of this recovery and lower for longer remains our base case as these deflationary forces remain firmly entrenched and secular in nature. More time and very difficult decisions are required to remedy these issues and politicians have been unwilling to tackle them thus far. As history has instructed, the political class typically fails to act absent a real crisis. Perhaps this is another political tendency the President-elect can approach from the non-traditional perspective of an outsider elected by Main Street. Hope springs eternal…
    https://www.ridgeworth.com/articles/can-trump-make-bonds-great-again
  • Global Valuations
    DSEUX: I guess I'm not sure how it would work compared to domestic DSENX. DSENX buys undervalued sectors from the S&P 500. Pretty clear and straight forward. CAPE picks from a somewhat stable group of U.S. stocks. Companies in a sector somewhat move in tandem. What index or group of countries will this fund use when buying? If the consumer sector is where value lies, is it the same value in the UK as it is in Greece? There are just so many other variables when buying global, country and regional variables that can drive sectors differently in different countries. That is pretty much why managed international or EM funds typically do better than index.
    It may be clear to others, but to me it is not straight forward how International CAPE will work and that it will have category beating returns like domestic CAPE. And because it is basically a semi-quant fund, there is no reason to get in early IM<HO. The "manager" has no more flexibility with a small asset base than a large one. But, to each his own.
  • Global Valuations
    Hmmm....I was actually looking to invest in the International CAPE. Can anyone tell me if this is "me too" research or has Shiller been tracking it for as long as the domestic version?
  • Global Valuations
    @Sven, I agree that SFGIX/SIGIX is a safer EM play than GVAL. Also, GVAL has inadequate average daily trading volume for our portfolio. We continue to own a small position in SIGIX.
    @MikeM, I agree that FMIJX is the best LC Foreign fund out there at this time. At this time, DSEUX is worth watching but not buying.
    @hank, Donald to Vladimir: "Большое спасибо !! "
    @davidrmoran, Like you, I am intrigued by the CAPE methodology and I am convinced that it is the real deal in terms of beating the markets. I just kept searching CAPE and came up with the DL fund. Personally, I will wait for a track record to develop, and if it performs, then I will buy. FMIJX is really the fund to beat in the LC Foreign space.
    Kevin
  • Global Valuations
    @kevindow
    Wow, thanks so much for finding this 3-week-old fund. Where and how did you do that? I have had a difficult time doing so, for over a month. I had a long interesting chat a couple weeks ago w/ Fidelity brokerage and fund experts who even had trouble finding the CAPE EU version, and kept coming up with the European version of US CAPE instead.
    Fido data for the funds are still not loaded --- searching lists nominal result at first, but then goes to 0 results. I am IMing w someone as we speak.
    I am interested in jumping in now. A little. With DT increasingly making out with the Euro right, and also Brexit, what could go wrong ? :)
  • Global Valuations
    Here are two sites that I follow for global valuations:
    Global Stock Market Valuations and Expected Future Returns
    Global Stock Market Valuation Ratios
    The following article demonstrates how CAPE and P/B reliably predict future market returns and market drawdowns in both domestic and foreign equity markets:
    Predicting Stock Market Returns Using The Shiller Cape

    Excellent excerpt from this last article:
    "Existing research indicates that the cyclically adjusted Shiller CAPE has predicted long-term returns in the S&P 500 since 1881 fairly reliable for periods of more than 10 years. Furthermore, the results of this paper indicate that this was also the case for 16 other international equity markets in the period from 1979 to 2015, and in addition to this, CAPE also enabled equity market risks to be gauged. In this manner, low market valuations were not only followed by above average market returns but also lower drawdowns. On the contrary, high market valuations led to lower returns and faced higher market risks."
    As far as investing, what does all this mean to me. Since CAPE matters globally, I am inclined to consider the ETF CAPE (however, average daily trading volume is too low for me), the ETF GVAL, and the mutual funds DSEEX/DSENX and DSEUX/DLEUX.
    In our portfolio, I am confident in using CAPE and P/B for investment selection, and have an 18% position in DSEEX and a 10% position in PXH.
    Kevin
  • Barron's Cover Story: Stockpicker’s Delight: How To Pick Great Funds
    According to the prospectus, it was backtested to hold up especially well in a downturn. For me, if it passes that test, it will be a buy and forget about it fund, at least until its success becomes watered down by imitators. The CAPE calculations are public and easy to imitate, though of course Gundlach's portion will remain his special domain.
    I suspect I'll get my test soon enough.
  • Barron's Cover Story: Stockpicker’s Delight: How To Pick Great Funds
    Compare it with CAPE and you can see that the global-bond sauce augments it quite differently from (to a worrisome degree, some might suggest) a balanced fund. Thus far.
  • Barron's Cover Story: Stockpicker’s Delight: How To Pick Great Funds
    All good --- SSHFX was bruited by Consumer Reports some years ago --- but having today closely reviewed 3y+ outperformance and risks via MFO, M*, and Lipper, I predict beating them all of them in that LV space via DSENX / DSEEX / CAPE, and am moving even more moneys into DSEEX as we speak.
    I have been a DL investor. I noted the buzz here on this board when this fund opened. It's certainly doing spectacularly. I read the short version of what this fund is about on the DL page. I understand the description, but not all the implications. Is this a fund that a rank amateur should be considering? DSEEX Cape-Schiller.
  • Barron's Cover Story: Stockpicker’s Delight: How To Pick Great Funds
    The Shiller Barclays CAPE US Core Sector Index -- underlying index for the CAPE ETN --has had attractive backtested returns during periods of both growth dominant and value dominant markets. So I am adequately confident to hold DSEEX in varying market conditions. In fact, last week I increased my DSEEX position from 15 to 18%. And like @davidmoran, I am confident that Gundlach will enable his mutual fund to have a higher upside/downside ratio relative to the CAPE ETN. But of course, the future is unknown.
    Growth vs. Value
    Backtested Returns of CAPE Index

    CAPE vs. DSEEX
    Kevin
  • Barron's Cover Story: Stockpicker’s Delight: How To Pick Great Funds
    Yeah, you mentioned that concern before. All I care about is that it continues to seriously outperform SP500, whose value components surely will dip at some point, yes, and all its div etfs.
    With considerably less risk and downside movement (as analyzed for Sharpe / Sortino / Martin ratios and Ulcer Index per MFO, plus M* and Lipper's quintile rankings), CAPE alone has outperformed SP500 significantly, if I am reading the M* data right, by:
    15% in '14
    331% in '15
    51% in '16
    DSENX / DSEEX has improved on the above by another percent or so, amazingly, owing to Gundlach's secret global-bond sauces.
    We have not had real testing dips, of course, but it does less badly whenever we have had the little ones the last 3+ years.
    I learned about this consistent engine from Snowball / MFO writeup. (So hopefully sometime this year I should be able to do more in return than just the Amz thing.)
  • Barron's Cover Story: Stockpicker’s Delight: How To Pick Great Funds
    All good --- SSHFX was bruited by Consumer Reports some years ago --- but having today closely reviewed 3y+ outperformance and risks via MFO, M*, and Lipper, I predict beating them all of them in that LV space via DSENX / DSEEX / CAPE, and am moving even more moneys into DSEEX as we speak.
  • 2016 At A Glance
    A striking spread between VIG and DVY, 12% vs <22%, the other usual suspects mostly in between. CAPE >18%.
  • Overrated Fund Families
    Hi @VintageFreak
    @JoJo26 noted: "Most overrated, BY FAR = Fidelity", @sma3 noted: "Fidelity Most too big too identical" and your notation of ditching your RiverPark and moving the monies to Eaton; I will note.....
    >>>One must consider what might be found at a "fund house", sort what you find of value for your investing needs, quality of timely and accurate data processing and ease of use of the existing structure.
    Fidelity has had a long list of mutual fund choices for a number of years, including what were first of a kind choices for the "common folk" investors with the introduction of the "select" funds. Fidelity also helped beat down the cost of investing from the full "load" fees charged by the big retail houses of the earlier period for mutual fund investing.
    We use Fidelity (since late 1970's) as a portal for investments. There is nothing written stating that one's brokerage account is restricted to Fidelity offerings.
    The portal is as flexible as needed by this house.
    Over the years, from the point of Fidelity fund choices; we have traveled into these choices (may be a few that escape memory at this time):
    FCNTX FDGRX FLPSX FAGIX FSPHX FLBIX SPHIX FRIFX FNMIX FINPX and several of the select funds.
    The majority of our holdings today are not Fidelity funds; with the brokerage portal allowing travel to........well, everything, to which, we desire access.
    If one can't find an investment path(s) within this fund house; I can't offer another solution.
    Our 2 cents worth.
    Catch
  • Overrated Fund Families
    Sorry --- forget DSE_X, since that introduces bonds; I shoulda just asked about CAPE.
    FT's lexicon defines quant as 'using computer-based models to inform their decisions on whether to buy or sell securities.'
    >> ... the more discretion there is held by humans, the less quantitative the fund is [@msf].
    Why I asked. Since there is no discretion for CAPE, seems to me it's as quant as can be. Hence in answer to your 'overrated' query, since for the last 4y it matches or outperforms (depending on timeframe) about all other SP500 constructions, it seemed to me that maybe it was the opposite of overrated. - ?
    @MikeM ---
    >> what 4 of the 10 sectors of the S&P the fund is invested in at any given time?
    No. This is as recent as I have uncovered:
    http://www.etnplus.com/US/7/en/details.app?instrumentId=174066
  • Overrated Fund Families
    Wow. rforno alludes to a spectrum of quant funds ("quant-lite") and you ask me whether these funds fit the definition of quant funds. Especially since there doesn't appear to be a clear definition.
    Okay, FWIW. First let's deal with a technical item. Even assuming that CAPE is a quant fund, IMHO DSEEX would not be because its objective and technique is to beat the model by using leverage and bonds. It does this in a manner similar to an equity-linked note that provides index exposure by buying index options and downside protection by using the remaining assets to purchase debt. DSEEX uses the latter to provide upside potential as opposed to downside protection. (It also amplifies exposure with leverage.) Besides, where's the model for the bonds?
    My take on what a quant fund is includes two axes, a major one and a minor one. The major one is how static the model or models are. If they never change, what you've got is a fundamental index. The models may be updated often, in which case you've got a quant fund. What I care about is how good the team is in continually improving the models, recognizing that markets don't literally repeat. (For example, the "January effect" is thought to have gradually diminished over the years.)
    The other axis is human intervention in security selection, as opposed to model design. ISTM that the more discretion there is held by humans, the less quantitative the fund is.
    The CAPE ETN seems to operate the same way as any other fundamental index fund or note. It has a fixed set of rules that it uses to select securities and periodically "resets" its portfolio. Fundamental indexes may use a set of rules as simple as equal weighting or as complex as those in any fund. Call them quant funds if you wish, but then borrowing from rforno's sense of lite-ness I'd call them consomme, clear and nearly colorless.
  • Overrated Fund Families
    @msf,
    Are not CAPE / DSEEX / DSENX quant?