Brexit: What, Me Worry? Hi Guys,
Thank you all for participating. Really thoughtful stuff!
We are all free to express our opinions. They are only opinions, some better informed then others, but still opinions. Those who claim to own a crystal ball often need to cleanup broken glass.
I did read the extensive “The Atlantic” article recommended by MFOer Charles. It is a fast paced rush through our nation’s political history. I agreed with many of its interpretations, and took exception to a few others. The author’s interpretations are similarly only opinions. The referenced piece is a worthwhile read. Thanks Charles.
Chaos seems to be synonymous with democracy. That’s the way it was in the beginning; that’s the way it is currently. And it’s not unique to the United States either. As Sir Winston Churchill remarked: “Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others”. Chaos can produce good outcomes.
It is a constant struggle not to allow democracy to decay into either full chaos or perhaps even tyranny on the opposite side of the scale. Historically, even Plato warned about that danger. But we have successfully escaped that dire outcome for over two centuries with an unfortunate history of electing terrible Presidents.
We are survivors. It may take some time, but we finally do recognize the dangers, adjust our behaviors and preferences accordingly, realign our support, modify our reactions, and ultimately overcome Washington’s transgressions. They have been numerous, but they have always been imperfectly overcome. In the political arena, just like in life itself, perfection is an unrealistic target, a textbook illusion.
Unlike the referenced article, I don’t worry the constant exposure that the political class must now address. Basically, that exposure is goodness. Yes there are some negative aspects to it, but from my perspective, the good far outweighs the bad effects. Yes, the Brexit decision will cause some disruptions, but we will discover some functional workarounds that limit its impact, and perhaps even promote a better world investment climate.
The folks in West Virginia will survive the flooding. Brexit is far less threatening to us.
Best Wishes.
Longterm LC choices for 30yo Noted. I have recently switched my own personal preference from SCHD to NOBL.
Keeping an eye on the new OUSA, courtesy Snowball.
You might like looking into CAPE.
(I also track RSV, RPG, and RPV, though they're not div-oriented.)
Longterm LC choices for 30yo >> A low cost S&P 500 Index fund is highly likely to have a better 10 and 20 year return than any other fund you choose....
I cannot find a period where PRBLX has not surpassed SPY. Can you? Not saying that it's highly unlikely, but.
>> SCHD SDOG
DVY is at least a good so far as I can see. Usually better. What am I missing ?
(If she is going to pay commission, I was thinking NOBL, OUSA, and/or CAPE over these.)
Longterm LC choices for 30yo Thanks much!
- Was avoiding Fido commissions else I woulda listed my faves OUSA, NOBL, CAPE, and SPHD. (How come you did not mention them yourself?)
- Was thinking DVY would provide the breadth, and the proportion to HDV would be modest. May scrap HDV altogether; can't decide.
- Would look into Boston Partners except she has a ton in FLPSX, which I think should stay.
Is Your Value Fund Just Smoke And Mirrors? FYI: Harry Houdini is perhaps the best-known magician of all time, gaining notoriety in the early 20th century through his daring es
cape acts. Houdini es
caped from straight jackets while suspended from chains, fought his way out of submerged mailbags, and performed a “buried alive” stunt.
Crowds loved it.
Of course, these tricks were merely sophisticated illusions–seemingly supernatural feats accomplished through sleight of hand or the use of fake equipment. Houdini’s genius was in pulling off an impossible trick in a way that did not betray his secrets. He was a master showman and a king of the stage. So what does all this have to do with value investing? Well, we wanted to ask an important question.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.equities.com/news/is-your-value-fund-just-smoke-and-mirrors
I'm going for it - we are in a declining stock market ... I think, what he means in "I am going for it ..." The door!
But, not me. I am staying with my asset allocation ranges. I'll have ample cash to raise my equity allocation from its low range of 45% towards its high range of 55% when I feel warranted. Besides if investors begin to run for the door when the market (S&P 500 Index) is only off its 52 week high by about 4% I wonder what they might do should there be a 10% pullback, or more. I'll be a buyer in equites somewhere around the 1920 range (S&P 500 Index) should we get there during the summer. I have been adjusting my allocation to equities over the past few years from a high range of 65%+ downward because I felt they were overvalued and somewhat overbought. Once, we get through the fall elections I am looking for a nice late fall stock market rally to develop. Anyway, this is how I am currently positioned and will ramp up my allocation in equities depending on how the investing landscape developes. I am thinking that third and fourth quarter corporate earnings will begin to improve and provide the needed fuel to support the rally. In addition, I am looking for the FOMC to raise interest rates to cool inflation as my rolling twelve month inflation number might surprise you with a reading of better than six percent from May 2015 through April 2016.
I wish all ... "Good Investing."
Jason Zweig: An Investors’ Credo To Live By: What Would Mom Buy? Hi Guys,
I like Jason Zweig. He is at or near the top of my ranking of all financial writers. Indeed, I like Jason Zweig a lot.
Although I’ve never kept score, I probably agree with 95% of his writings without reservation. But I do take exception to his current WSJ article. I believe that it is far off target.
Sure, asking financial advisors and analysts to be “prudent, honest, and ethical” is equivalent to motherhood, but I believe many more are so inclined than are commonly credited. Those who are not so dedicated are eventually discovered and they disappear from the landscape. Should standards be higher? Of course they should, but that too is pure motherhood.
Just a little due diligence allows us to choose those who satisfy our needs and to discard those who are suspiciously self-promoters. I’m not alarmed that only about half of those asked risk recommending anyone as a financial guru. What satisfies me will likely not satisfy someone else, given our disparate timescales, investment styles, education, and investment goals. Why run that risk?
All of Zweig’s 4 main points in his article are weak arguments and fail to make his case.
Costs always matter, and every investor is fully aware of that crippling handicap. If asset managers overcharge for their services, they will simply not survive the fierce competition.
Many fund managers fully recognize market size constraints and adopt appropriate strategies to navigate these limitations. Again, if they fail to do so, their returns suffer and they ultimately fail. The marketplace is a cruel disciplinarian.
I don’t believe financial firms try an endless array of investment strategies to select one that statistically worked in the past. That approach is putting the cart before the horse. It’s recognized as a losing method. I believe these firms formulate an investing idea, a concept, a candidate strategy first, and next they challenge its worthiness using backtesting approaches for verification and selling purposes.
A firm is not long for this world if it does not invest in its own product. Savvy investors always check that item early in their down-selection process.
I would have closed the article with yet another “ethical acronym”. Permit me to add WWWB to the article’s short list. In this instance I mean What Would Warren Buy? I trust his wisdom more than my Mom only when investing is the issue.
This is just one man’s opinion. Zweig must have been hard pressed to complete this column facing an eminent publishing deadline. What is your assessment?
Best Regards.
Scott Burns: How Good Is Your 401(k) Plan ?
Large Cap/All Cap dividend investing, need input I favor DSENX and would look hard at NOBL, SPHD, OUSA, and of course CAPE. Not much MC, though.
best unknown >> suggestions on the best up and coming equity ... mutual fund that nobody yet knows about?
You have already looked into DSENX (or CAPE)? (NOBL, SPHD, and especially OUSA do not have large bases yet, I think, or whatever the word is.)
What criteria do you use to select Mutual Finds? I too advocate as few as you can stand and which meet your diversification wishes (noting that diversification appears somewhat overrated), and make my decisions more and more using M* upside/downside ratios alongside manager longevity and ownership. If you have a long timeline ahead, then longterm-outperforming active funds and 'screened' etfs would be my goals. I pay less attention than some to expenses, although exclude load funds or ones w/ egregious expenses. In the US LC area I am favoring more and more NOBL, SPHD, CAPE, and OUSA.
Some really big YTD gains in bond funds of all stripes and colors I used to be like that but for intellectual hygiene (my brain clarity and challenges thereto) I went a few years ago to ML via BoA and Fido only, and so I buy only whatever is offered therein for free. Works okay thus far, although I forsake Bruce and some (many) others, yes. Also I trade and 'time' less than in decades past. But tracking and tax time are way simpler.
@AndyJ, if you like JENSX you might want to look into the thus far outperforming LC etfs SPHD, NOBL,
CAPE, and latterly OUSA.
FPACX and OAKBX I used to own FPACX and, longer ago, OAKBX. My allocation funds now are BRUFX and DSENX. I dabble in CAPE, trying to make a few bucks trading. Every time I take a look at DSENX, I feel good about my decision to buy and add to it, but I couldn't explain intelligently how the fund does its thing or by what benchmark to measure it.
Some Good News This whole issue related to the GSE's has been frustrating, so much so that I even communicated with my Senator, Sherrod Brown who's the ranking member on the Senate Banking Committee. My sizable FAIRX position may have had just a bit of motivation there.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were used as s
capegoats to absolve the real culprits of the mortgage-backed security crisis of 2008, and their profits illegally funneled to the treasury coffers and at the same time shielding the banks. This scheme is unraveling, the only question being whether it will see the light of day.
From the NYTs:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/13/business/fannie-mae-suit-bailout.html?smid=tw-share&_r=1Also, if your interested in more details, the last 2 articles by Glen Bradford on Seeking Alpha under the FNMA ticker are superb and highly recommended.
But sorry, expatsp ....I can't help with Sears.
Lewis Braham: Choosing The Best Dividend ETFs Wonder what the heck happened w SPHD the last couple months --- unusual up/down dynamic (compared with NOBL or CAPE, say).