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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Goldman Sachs Mid-Year Outlook
    Hi Guys,
    In his newly minted book “The Signal and the Noise”, author Nate Silver introduces readers to Jan Hatzius, chief economist for the Global Investment Research division of Goldman Sachs. The position alone establishes that Hatzius has gravitas and power to influence.
    Additionally, Silver saddles Hatzius with yet another accolade: that of an honest man who acknowledges how easily his forecasts might be wrong. According to Silver, this is a rare commodity among forecasters and economists. Chief among these attributes are Jan Hatzius’s skepticism of correlations without causation, and the requirement to identify accuracy boundaries for all forecasts.
    Up to this point, economist Hatzius has escaped my attention. Based on Nate Silver’s endorsement, I searched the Internet for some video predictions made by Hatzius. A plethora ( perhaps a plague if you deem his projections negatively) of such videos exist. My quick evaluation of several of these predictions is that they are reasonable assessments of the global economy.
    For what it’s worth, here is a Link to a June, 2012 presentation that addresses prospects for the latter-half of 2012. It is titled “2012 Mid-Year Economic Outlook”. The Link also provides access to four other Goldman Sachs video presentations. If it has been posted on MFO earlier, I apologize for my repetition and/or tardiness.
    http://www.goldmansachs.com/our-thinking/focus-on/outlook/index.html
    Enjoy this brief summary of the Goldman Sachs anticipated global market rewards and failures for the remainder of this year. You can contrast Hatzius’s mid-term projections against his initial 2012 year forecast.
    Best Regards.
  • Goodbye, And Many Thanks, To My Favorite Mutual Fund Ever : Royce Select Fund
    I'm not quite sure what to make of the story. Royce created a fund that was impossible for most investors to get into and then was surprised, as it seems the author was, that most investors paid no attention to it.
    I've been watching the fund for years, but its two entry barriers placed it outside our coverage universe:
    1. "Only 'qualified investors' may invest in the Royce Select Funds. A “qualified investor” ... has a net worth ( excluding the value of the primary residence) of more than $2,000,000; or ... owns Fund shares having a net asset value of at least $1,000,000. "
    2. The minimum initial investment for qualified investors is $50,000.
    The fund has now eliminated its variable-fee structure and, thus, escaped the first, SEC-imposed hurdle but the $50,000 minimum remains.
    David
  • Are Investors Obsessed With Black Swans ?
    Disappointing to me that folks like Christian Wagner, founder and chief investment officer of Longview Capital Management LLC, get portrayed as modern day risk managers.
    Here's strategy from the Longview site, emphasizing "Downside Management."
    A Flexible Strategy for A Changing World
    The Longview Global Allocation Fund seeks to preserve and grow capital by producing absolute returns with reduced volatility. At Longview, we believe the changing global landscape presents investors with an unprecented opportunity to shift their investment perspective, establishing a global allocation strategy as the core of their investment portfolio.

    Here is the performance of their showcase fund Longview Global Allocation LONGX, which I believe shows they captured most of the downside and little of the upside:
    image
    And, for the privilege of owning LONGX, investors get to pay 5.75% front load and 2.72% ER.
    Can you believe?
  • Fed Minutes - Many Favor New Easing "soon"
    Hey there Hank-
    Just a few weeks ago we spent a week or so up near Vancouver and Victoria... probably our 4th or 5th trip to that area. Back in the 70s we spent three weeks traversing Canada from Nova Scotia to Vancouver via rail, spending several days in Toronto and Halifax, and a week or so in Jasper in the Canadian Rockies. Rented a car in Nova Scotia (got clear out to the end of Cape Breton Island) and Jasper- good highways and good people for sure. What a great trip!
    We really hope to visit the Michigan area before we pack it in... lots of friends back there.
    Take care!
  • User Guide
    Try again
    Thanks to all,
    Yes, I can read the html and will try some experiments. I quit doing a blog in May, 2005. If interested just click on My old blog . Note my reference to Netscape 3.04; it shows how old I am. A good reference for html is at W3Schools
  • User Guide
    Thanks to all,
    Yes, I can read the html and will try some experiments. I quit doing a blog in May, 2005. If interested just click on My old blog . Note my reference to Netscape 3.04; it shows how old I am. A good reference for html is at W3Schools
  • What would you do with a large inheritance?
    Thank you, Scott. You were there for me back on FA, and I still hold some of your recommendations in an IRA. My posted was getting long; I should have included no debt, LTC purchased long ago (excellent policy), have a second home - mostly escape for Midwestern winters.
    Yes, I have been doing my best to educate our two children and now our two grandchildren. I totally agree that education is lacking in this very important area. And, then, when so much time is spent with one's career and children, finances can take the back burner. I am doing my best educating our grandchildren. Lesson one was many years ago when in a restaurent I gave them the choice of a beverage - or water and money that the beverage would have cost. You know what they chose. LOL Last night my 8 year old asked me how much a stock costs as he's interested in buying stocks. We started talking Disney, Harley Davidson, McDonald's, etc. My g'kids finish the phrase when I begin it - "If you spend it - you can't save it." Doing my best!
    And, yes, Rono many years back also told me when I was saving toward retirement to be sure I thought of myself and used retirement funds on myself. Fortunately, even though I have been caring for relatives for more than 25 years, I am in excellent health. My goal now is to take care of myself and learn how to focus on myself.
    I have put 'fee based - based on performance' on the top of my priority list. Thank you for your efforts in assisting me - very much appreciated.
  • Is Working Past Age 65 a Realistic Option?
    Reply to @perpetual_Bull: Agreed and agreed. Some occasionally escape and/or rise above it while others are destined to just go with the flow. Although we may want to be the one at the top not all of us are going to get there.
    however, I would not be shocked. Sen it too many times. Darn near had to beat one of my kids in order to get her to participate in just such a plan despite her pleas of not having enough spare money. I might be shocked to see a 401k plan crash though. That is funny; or maybe not. Sad.
  • Is Working Past Age 65 a Realistic Option?
    Hi Guys,
    Experience is never out of style.
    I was somewhat taken aback by the many replies that emphasized the difficulties of securing gainful employment for older workers. Note that I included the qualifier term “gainful”. I certainly concur that being a greeter at WalMart is less than a gainful and meaningful job. Of course, I recognize and respect those at the lowest end of the wealth distribution curve who must do this task for basic survival necessities.
    Life is not necessarily fair, but surely some suffer this dire predicament because of their own life’s choices.
    Catch22 opined that “ For several decades, from the very large and well paid middle class in MI; this state was far ahead of any other states for the number of registered motorcycles, boats, snowmobiles, travel trailers/campers….”. Further, he observed that “The big money was coming into these households and headed right back out the door via a payment book.”
    This is a recipe for disaster in any state, especially in my high cost state of California. But this is a financial sin of the first magnitude that is not restricted to middle aged or senior citizens. It is pervasive throughout society, in particular a defect that government promulgates and practices.
    As a little aside, this reminds me of a description of California that I received recently from an East Coast friend. On July 4th 1850 California became a state. People had no electricity; the state had no money. Almost everyone spoke Spanish. Gunfights erupted in the streets. Not much has changed in the last 161 years.
    Even in the best of times, many folks are procrastinators; others are lazy; still others just want the good times to roll. These folks will likely, unless they win the lottery gamble which they frequently play to excess, never approach the magic Number that permits a safe and worry-free retirement. They are typically debt gluttons.
    I have very little empathy for such misguided souls. Some folks make poor decisions their entire life. You and I are not responsible for these decisions. They were always free to choose. Of course, I exclude from this grouping the truly unfortunate folks who suffered tragic, personal Black Swan events none of which were their design or doing. Bad stuff happens. I have great empathy for this unlucky cohort.
    I strongly believe that experience matters a lot in the business world. Not only does experience matter for the elite worker classes (doctors, scientists, engineers), but also for the more mundane, but essential, groupings (bakers, electricians, lumberjacks, plumbers, gardeners). The list whereby experience contributes to superior performance and outcomes is endless. I’m prepared to challenge you naysayers to identify a legitimate business endeavor where experience is not crucial to success.
    Daniel Kahneman acknowledged the experience factor in his book “Thinking, Fast and Slow”. He gave numerous illustrations of how experience permits a worker to develop recognition skills and solution approaches. He used chess masters as one of his examples. In summary, he concluded that at last 10,000 hours of practical experience is needed to gain proficiency in many working assignments. Malcolm Gladwell also highlighted the 10,000 hour rule in his writings.
    Growing old is neither apocalyptic nor is it a Golden Age. Education, experience, prudent savings, and wise investing enhance the odds towards Golden and away from apocalyptic. Successful seniors adjust, adapt, and survive. Sometimes events force the retiree to reenter the employment marketplace. I agree that it is not an easy task, but it is doable and the national statistics support that assertion.
    Here is a Link to a government study that was completed in 2010:
    http://www.bls.gov/opub/ils/summary_10_04/older_workers.htm
    The reference report shows employment data dating from 1948 to 2008.
    Yes, the over-55 unemployment rate has recently escalated, but it’s at a relatively low, single digit level (see figure 2). Yes, it does take an older worker a longer time to find a new position. But he does. Figure 3 demonstrates that the senior workforce participation rate has been increasing recently while the participation rate for the youngest cohort has been decreasing. Note the trendlines. I’m sure a part of that trendline is caused by poor investment decisions and a shrinking retirement nest-egg. Too bad.
    Please visit the reference and form your own interpretations of the data sets.
    There is little doubt that aging erodes most skill sets. Youngsters work faster; seniors work smarter. Youngsters work creatively; seniors work with consistency. Tradeoffs are plentiful that naturally include wage and benefits considerations. Some firms now seek senior employees. It is a shifting marketplace. When Bell telephone initially hired an operator staff it was all male. They soon learned that females were better and more reliable at that job and adapted accordingly.
    I have sympathy for those individuals who lost positions that reflected both economic realities and age discrimination. It is equally hard on the ego and hard on the pocketbook. I appreciate that it does happen. I never faced that stressful circumstance. I like to think that I avoided that forlorn scenario by planning ahead. I did work for outfits that suffered layoffs. I escaped by working harder, by working cheaper, by changing positions, by moving to other locations, and by continuing my education. I survived by being proactive, by being flexible, and, admittedly, by being a little lucky.
    Persistence can and often does win the day. There is some truth to the observation that “Those who know better don’t always do better”. Like Woody Allen remarked: “Eighty percent of success is showing up”. Just don’t abandon the hunt.
    Loads of great discussion and diverse viewpoints. I enjoyed all of them. Thank you.
    Best Wishes.
  • PIMCO's Gross prophesies death of equities in August outlook
    I don't think Gross is saying the end of equities, simply that expectations should not be what they once were, and even moreso for bonds. Additionally, that a large portion of the population has soured on what he calls the "cult of equities" and that that may continue. You have an older generation that does not want to take the same risks and a younger generation that is not going to take the baton fully - "“Boomers can’t take risk. Gen X and Y believe in Facebook but not its stock. Gen Z has no money." (from Gross's letter) Pensions expecting real returns of 7-8% minimum should think again, etc.
    As Gross has said recently, the letter ends expecting inflation as the end result.
    "The problem with all of that of course is that inflation doesn’t create real wealth and it doesn’t fairly distribute its pain and benefits to labor/government/or corporate interests. Unfair though it may be, an investor should continue to expect an attempted inflationary solution in almost all developed economies over the next few years and even decades. Financial repression, QEs of all sorts and sizes, and even negative nominal interest rates now experienced in Switzerland and five other Euroland countries may dominate the timescape. The cult of equity may be dying, but the cult of inflation may only have just begun."
    Additionally, at the core, a fair amount of what Gross is saying feels quite similar to what Rob Arnott is saying, although Arnott is more to the point.
    I'll also note separately that Coach is down nearly 20% on the day, and Starbucks got creamed the other day - there's been a few other noteworthy momentum plays going in reverse and whatever one believes about the long-term status of equities, short-term caution would certainly appear to be warranted.
  • (Andrew Foster) SFGIX trading sideways since inception in Feb, '12: A good moment to get in now?
    Andrew Foster:
    =========
    At Seafarer, our abiding goal as an investment adviser is to deliver long term performance. However, even as I view performance as paramount, I will not consider our firm a success unless it also achieves three ancillary objectives over the long term:
    1. Seafarer is dedicated to lowering the costs associated with overseas investment. Investment in developing countries is legitimately an expensive proposition; and the Adviser’s small asset base hampers our ability to pass on further economies at the present moment. However I view it as one of the firm’s central duties to ensure that expenses become more affordable with scale, and over time.
    2. Seafarer is determined to increase the transparency associated with its investment in developing countries. My aim is for Seafarer to continuously improve the transparency it offers to its clients, albeit subject to constraints imposed by fiduciary standards, regulation and compliance.
    3. My hope is that Seafarer can reduce some of the frustration that often accompanies investment in developing countries. Seafarer’s investment strategies are necessarily exposed to risk, and the results cannot escape the impact of market volatility. However, my hope is that Seafarer’s investment strategies will mitigate at least a portion of this volatility, so that clients may invest with less frustration and more confidence over time.
  • Pimco --- Rethinking Asset Allocation | Playing Defense in Search for Income
    http://www.pimco.com/EN/Insights/Pages/Rethinking-Asset-Allocation.aspx
    - Asset classes are likely to be affected by the situation in Europe and, more broadly, by high debt levels in developed countries. The related political debate about austerity vs. growth is also critical.
    - Fixed income investors should note whether countries control their own currencies and can monetize their debts. Those that can may be greater inflation risks. Those that cannot may be greater credit risks.
    - These factors are contributing to market volatility and lower returns, which in turn are challenging investor expectations about asset classes.
    - We encourage investors to broaden their opportunity sets, for example, looking more closely at emerging market government bonds. They also may consider assets such as real estate and commodities, which may partially replace traditional domestic equities.
    ​Navigating the global landscape these days is tough. Macro risks range from uncertainty about the future of Europe to mixed messages about the U.S. economy - not to mention a host of concerns about indebtedness, policy and politics.
    In the following interview, portfolio manager Curtis Mewbourne discusses how investors can approach asset allocation in such an environment and over the longer term.
  • mutual fund strategy
    Thanks again for all the thoughtful answers. I copied the "10 lessons" and am presently in the process of choosing the cement to attach it to my head. It's tempting as an investor to throw the baby out with the bathwater and the market is in a temporary stew, making rational thought difficult as money goes sideways--or worse--downhill. However at the very least, my inquiry did provide many highly cogent and insightful answers. None of the funds that I've selected are 'bad' per se, it's just that they happen not to be where the most gainful action is presently, which appears to be in REITS, emmerging market bonds, Asian equities, maybe small caps, which last may indicate along with the REITS an improving market. However, bear in mind [a pun?] that regardless of risk tolerance, there may come a time to plan for an escape route. How low does one go--15%--25%? Where does risk tolerance become replaced with, you guessed it, stupidity. I have the dubious honor of having owned Legg Mason Value Trust shares when they crashed [2008]. Good management alone is not good enough; instantaneous performance in written form is a sign along the way that things may be rotten somewhere, at least concerning mutuaL funds, baring further analysis.
    Impatient and Delirious
  • mutual fund strategy
    Hi Romroc,
    From your posting, it appears that your investment frustration level is high, and perhaps even rising higher.
    It seems as if you anticipated huge rewards almost immediately. Sometimes that does happen;; often it does not. But don’t allow your current disappointments to cloud your judgment and nudge you into making imprudent decisions. When investing, time is your ally. Trees do not grow to the sky. Remember that a fundamental statistical mechanism that operates in the long=term for almost all endeavors is a regression-to-the-mean.
    So patience and persistence is a mandatory requisite for successful investing.
    Several MFO members have already offered you some excellent and wise advice. But you need not trust either me or them. It might assuage your anxiety and uneasiness if that advice was proffered by a seasoned and highly successful money manager.
    That professional general advice is readily accessible on the Internet. Jeremy Grantham is a remarkably successful and renown financial sage. In February of this year, he summarized 10 investment lessons for Jonathan Burton, a MarketWatch reporter. These were referenced by MFO participants in earlier submittals.
    Grantham’s 10 lessons are rules to guide your investment decision-making and actions. They are solid stuff, come from a recognized authority, and demand attention. In late February, Barry Ritholtz, of Big Picture fame published a succinct, shortened version that I copied for retention. Here is the Link to these rules that should enhance your likelihood of achieving investment success:
    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/02/jeremy-grantham-10-lessons/print/
    Please examine the lessons carefully.
    Based on your posting, I feel that you have violated a few of them. By itself, that does not mean that you are doomed to fail. There are many pathways to investment wealth. The Holy Grail escapes all of us. But an honest assessment of your goals, your investment philosophy, your preferences, and your risk aversion (pain threshold) must be considered when contrasted against the Grantham standard. That critical comparison might give you some pause to entertain a realignment of your investment policy and strategy. Perhaps not, but that’s okay too.
    I hope this reference is helpful. I wish you well.
    Best Regards.
  • Blast from the past ... Supposedly safe funds that weren't (2008)
    "Putting 2008 in perspective: It's been said the crisis was akin to the proverbial "Hundred Year Flood"."
    Yes, but "hundred year flood" is based on semi-old data and we seem to be having "hundred year floods" quite regularly these days.
    By "semi-old" I mean a couple of centuries, which is not exactly a solid statistical data base even with a static climatological & geographic environment, and during which lots & lots of changes have been made to river beds, surrounding drainages, etc etc. Think of what your local landscape was a century -- or two, or three -- ago.
    I would suggest that a similar scenario actually DOES apply to the investment landscape as well ( but not in the implied context) ... questionable statistical data base, along with huge "environmental" changes. Greenspan may have made the allusion, but I'd say that the comparison may have been closer than he thought, but not exactly what he intended.
    We certainly need to learn from the past, but only if we a willing to go beyond the superficial numerics to search for the causes.
  • DALBAR Reveals Investor Shortcomings
    Hi MikeM,
    Thanks for your informative contribution. You enhanced the dialogue with your perceptive comments.
    I suspect we shared some common learning experiences along the poorly marked investment pathway.
    I too did my own stock selection for about three decades using various fundamental analyses, technical plotting, and newsletter tip approaches. Although I had some modest successes, I also suffered a few painful losses. The time commitment added stress to the entire process. In the mid-1980s, I initiated my first mutual fund investment with the Peter Lynch managed Magellan fund.
    In the 1980s, Fidelity allowed Lynch to invest without much in the way of corporate policy constraints. I believe much of his early success could be attributed to the “go anywhere” philosophy that Fidelity permitted Lynch to exercise; he invested in foreign markets long before they became a popular US financial destination.
    As you recall, Lynch retired in 1990 as an active Fidelity fund manager. His replacement, Morris Smith didn’t handle the pressure well, and he was quickly replaced by Jeff Vinik in 1992. I liked Vinik; he guided a size bloated Magellan with an aggressive leadership style. He went where he believed the excess returns were hidden.
    Unfortunately, in the short-term for Vinik, and, eventually in the long-term for Fidelity, Vinik strategically sold equity holdings for bond positions around 1994. That major asset allocation shift failed and Vinik was sacked for his ill-fated market timing. However, he quickly recovered when he established a very successful and profitable Hedge fund operation; I’m not convinced that Fidelity has ever subsequently found a successful manager for its Magellan product.
    I abandoned Magellan soon after Vinik was fired. That was one of my better investment decisions since I moved my Fidelity holdings into their Low Price Stock (FLPSX) and Contrafund (FCNTX) offerings which I still own.
    Like you, I prefer to allow the fund management liberty to make sector and broad category asset allocation moves that reflect their dynamic market assessments. That’s part of why I hire them. It’s not that they are smarter than you or I, but rather they have the resources and time to more fully collect the requisite information, critically assess it, and decide on an action plan. This can be an overwhelming chore for a private investor, irrespective of his market instincts, savvy, and skill set.
    I suppose that is the primary reason why members of the MFO community are so committed to the mutual fund/ETF approach to constructing a portfolio. Investing in individual stocks is a deep, time-consuming sinkhole.
    It is indeed hard to escape the emotional aspects of investment decision-making. Using mutual funds and ETFs help. For some, even this tactic fails to quell the anxiety factor. At that level, perhaps hiring a financial advisor would provide some needed relief. I think most MFO participants do not suffer this malady.
    Best Wishes.
  • are BRICs beginning to crack
    I have watched the EM economies for more than 20 years, and have noted there have always been suggestions that these countries were in some way "losing it", as the article puts forth again. I can remember the same talk even before Russia, China, India, and Brazil became economic forces. Then it was how risky it was to invest in South Korea (now just called Korea by the mainstream), Taiwan, Indonesia, Mexico, etc. In 1997, EUROX came to market. I remember sitting in a room with someone from U.S. Global talking about this innovative, new fund, and thinking how much risk there might be investing in Poland, Hungary, and other parts of Eastern Europe. They were not even considered EM economies; they were called Frontier Economies - sort of like Bangladesh, Egypt, and Cambodia are now. The fund owned a lot of Eastern European banks - very risky - right?
    Anyone who has owned EM stocks over the last 15 years knows it has been a wild ride, and EMs will probably always be that way. I read an interesting comment by commentator Greg Valliere yesterday about China: "Don't worry about China. The Chinese could have a rocky time with Mitt Romney, but at the end of the day, pragmatism will prevail. The Chinese government will stimulate whenever necessary, and their economic growth will continue to be the envy of the world. Would China ever pull out of the U.S. debt market? Of course not -- why would they want to damage their own portfolio?" In the end, China, Russia, and the other large economies with governments that control most things have to grow their economies. The demographics of their growing middle classes demand it.
    I don't look at the BRIC nations as real EMs anymore. They are sort of in between the developed world and the true EMs of the world that are sometimes called Frontier countries. Their will always be risk investing "overseas", but my guess is that 15-20 years from now, the landscape of EMs will have evolved once more.
  • Funds food chain & what the sharks ate first.....and this phase
    Howdy,
    Unfortunately, I was away from the pc from noon until now, 5pm; and could not unload any funds.
    I will review tonight and anticipate selling more of our holdings tomorrow if there is not some magical financial event overnight or tomorrow.
    ---The fund eating sharks and the pathway to date:
    Begining the first week of March found weakness in the commodity sector. We sold most of our FSAGX and all of our FFGCX holding on March 6. Other equity and bond areas kinda cruised along for about one month; which found the signs of weakness again in Europe.
    Next in line during April found weakness in the EM equity sectors, which continues today. In late April and early May found weakness in EM bonds. We sold 1/2 of TEGBX and the majority of FNMIX a few days ago. The EM bond sectors have more downside today.
    Obviously, during this past 4-6 weeks has found problems with many global equity sectors, and so far this week has found about a 50% larger downside in Europe versus the U.S. No to be outdone, Asia had a fun time yesterday and may have another find time coming; while most of us here are asleep.
    Adding to the pile today; although not having been problematic over the past few weeks finds HYG and JNK taking the hammer today, with both just slightly better than a -1%.
    A consistant and somewhat of a pattern has been taking place and continues to chew through the risk off mode and is now pushing upon the credit quality of bonds. This is not surprising in light of changes that began in early April.
    Will another QE program here, or opening very big money doors in Europe cause an early summer equity rally? I sure don't know, but if such an event took place; I would suspect it would only be a game played among the big trading houses.
    The only U.S. equity sectors at this point in the late afternoon that were kinda happy: utilities (flat), health care (slightly up) and consumer staples (slightly up). If the market sells down through the summer, I am not sure these areas of equity would offer any comfort.
    Tomorrow, if nothing changes; will find a major shuffle of our portfolio. Surprise, surprise......the monies will likely travel to bonds of the non-HY/HI type. Wishing I was home today, to have begun the move.
    Perhaps we may escape the week with less than a 1% down.
    Wishing all well with the investments.
    Regards,
    Catch