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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Why rising rates isn't that bad for bonds
    It's all good, FD. PIMIX is still good for long term holders. I'm meeting my goals. That is what is important to me. Keep convincing yourself that getting 5% per year with low SD is the only game in town. I guess there's a reason people live in Georgia :o}
    Again, the thread is not about me but after you couldn't come up with anything to debunk the original post you resort to make it personal. I never said that what I do is the only game in town, it works extremely well for our portfolio. I actually posted many times that the average Joe should buy several funds (indexes+managed) and hardly trade.
    But, please don't worry about me. I posted the following about a week ago, so I will just copy it below.
    Remember, since I retired in 2018, we have enough money to sustain our standard of living for another 40-50 years if our portfolio will make just 4% annually including inflation. Our portfolio is 35+ times our annual expense without our SS. This is why I set up the following goals: make 6% average annually with the lowest SD I can get (preferably under 3) and never lose 3% from any last top. We don’t care about maximizing performance anymore but to meet our specific goals. To do that I use mainly bond mutual funds + several short term trades (hours-days) using stocks/ETF/CEFs/other. The 3 year results are much better than my goals. I never lost more than 1% from any last top in the last 3 years. Below is a copy from my Schwab accounts as of yesterday 10/14/2020 which is about 95% of our total money. There is no way to achieve these results without being a good trader and why I posted other funds too
    3 year performance/SD...SPY 13.1%/17.7...VBINX (60/40) 10%/11.1....VWIAX (40/60) 7.04/6.6%...PIMIX 3.75%/5.6....IOFIX 0.2%/23.7
    My portfolio performance was 9.9% annually for 3 year with SD=2.18
    Below you can see an image of performance as of 10/14/2020 from Schwab. Column 1=one year...Column 2=YTD...Column 3=one year...Column 4=3 years
    image
    Below is the SD for one year and 3 years
    image
    BTW, welcome to MFO.
  • Why rising rates isn't that bad for bonds
    Funny thing, I was pretty good at English grammar while taking tests :-)
    After learning Spanish only one year compare to many years in English I wish the most common world language would be Spanish. It's easier to learn, speak and read.
    Interesting facts: I immigrated in my mid 30 and worked in IT, most of my co-workers were Asian/Indians. My wife stated that my English got worse over the years ;-)
    Another observation: Israel is similar to the US. It has immigrants from around the world. The worse Hebrew speakers after several years are the English ones, especially Americans. The immigrants who speak German, French, Spanish, Russian, and Arabic have better accent, grammar and fluency. What makes English so complicated? Many exceptions, a lot more words with small nuances, the sentence structure is unique, and too many tenses.
    Anyway, the bad thing for most investors who look for bonds as ballast for stock is the fact that BND+BIV pay about 2% but most still need it, especially retirees who have enough money and worry about volatility. PTIAX can be a compromise fund with a decent volatility + 4% annual distributions.
    For me it's not a big problem since I'm trading bond funds using momentum and looking for good performance. Most of that performance came from MBS/securitized funds such as PIMIX,IOFIX but in the last several years HY Munis (NHMAX,OPTAX,ORNAX,GWMEX) also made me money.
  • Markets Without Havens - VMVFX
    Nice article Bee, thank you for sharing.
    I've been phasing into ARTTX (Artisan Partners Focus Fund) the past week or so, do like that it attempts to be "risk - aware", looking at crowding, volatility, correlation, factor analysis, macro drivers, liquidity, stress tests and can use options to mitigate risk etc
    Also hold TGUNX TCW Premier New America, full of cash flow rich, compounders, lower asset base
    I attempt to barbell these holdings with ROSOX (Rondure Overseas) in case of falling dollar, FPFIX FPA Flex Income, IOFIX Q Infinity and large holdings in DERI Dominion notes, like money market, no FDIC, easy access to funds and 5 year CDs.
    Who knows what will happen...do think this Virus etc has pulled forward many trends, one of them being software companies etc who are losing money now but are growing their market share tremendously and will have huge revenue streams with the life time value of customer annuity effect when customers get into their eco system and don't want to change out...many mutual fund managers are older (maybe not in age but maybe in thinking/training) and might be fighting the last war...
    Good Luck to all,
    Baseball_Fan
  • Ready For a Melt UP? Bears, It's Checkmate!
    @Zolta, IOFIX min is only $100K at Schwab. I'm guessing your investments is at Fidelity. This is one of the reason I transferred most of my money to Schwab. Fidelity also have a million dollar min on Pimco Instit share funds too.
    My technique is not recommended to anybody, it takes skills to know when to change. When I started investing this way 20 years ago it was simpler. About twice a year I looked for the best 5 risk/reward funds and kept changing but I used 3 (60%) as core and 2 funds as explore. The funds had to be in the top 30% of performance at all times which made sure I would not hold lagging funds for years.
    I never cared about OVER diversification. The funds mangers can do whatever they want I just expect good performance and SD(volatility) which led to good Sharpe+Sortino.
  • Ready For a Melt UP? Bears, It's Checkmate!
    FD 1000, thanks for the lucid explanation. I understand how you can make your goals
    by your plan. Unfortunately for me, I can't do it. Using the IOFIX example, one would have to invest 1 million (minimum required) in IOFIX to make $7500 holding the fund for that productive a month. I have neither the money nor the courage to put that much on the line when the same unexpected drop that occurred in February to March can recur in our present uncertain times. So, I dither along making $ 10-20k investments at a time.
    Do you have any suggestions on modifying your technique for smaller sized investments?
  • Ready For a Melt UP? Bears, It's Checkmate!
    Below is a chart of the SP500. When do I buy stocks (usually SP500 or QQQ)?
    I look for at least 5-8% loss from the last top. Then I need to see:
    1) MACD goes from higher negative to positive
    2) Uptrend in price for several days
    3) If price crossed the SP500 it's better
    I buy for 2-5 days to make 2+%.
    There are other signs but it's a good start.
    You may think it’s bogus but I have been using T/A for years with a very high success rate.
    Why the above works? because the more the market goes down, there is a good chance it will come back at least 50-60% of the lose. I'm looking for the first sign of momentum, join it and leave within days.
    image
    =========
    For bond funds where I make most of my money I look for momentum + SD in the last 1-4 weeks (but also look at long term) + other factors.
    Again, I have done very nicely as the numbers showed. The key for me it to make money slowly and lose almost nothing. I follow funds and categories to see where is momentum. What seems a lot of work for most, it's a passion of mine and many times I do nothing for several weeks-months. Of course, T/A is only one aspect of it, a visual of a chart is very helpful because I can see many funds on the same chart. Look at a simple (chart) with 2 funds, can you guess which one is better? IOFIX is better because the uptrend is gradual and goes up while PIMIX chart goes down then up which means IOFIX momentum and volatility is better.
  • Ready For a Melt UP? Bears, It's Checkmate!
    Lots of BS about me. How nice is to post trash without any proof.
    ==============
    @davidrmoran:but it is true that FD1k should be a multimillionaire, philanthropist, and posting regularly for seekingalpha or similar
    FD: I'm a multimillionaire but not philanthropist or making money posting on seekingalpha.
    =============
    @davidrmoran: plus a byline somewhere advising others about bonds and his rapid fund trading without penalty.
    FD: why do you think I should pay any penalty? I have special arrangement at Schwab where I have a dedicated trader that buys all the Inst funds for me with no commissions and I can sell these funds within one day (I don't buy funds that have longer mandatory hold). Example: IOFIX,PIMIX. If I don’t buy Inst funds and these funds are not Schwab fund and I sell within 90 days I do pay the $49.95 short term penalty which is nothing compared to the amount I'm making.
    ===============
    @Junkster,
    Your posts have several examples of liars, are you insinuating that I lied too?. I never claimed that I made a very high %, just a pretty good performance with very low SD. Remember, since I retired in 2018, we have enough money to sustain our standard of living for another 40-50 years if our portfolio will make just 4% annually including inflation. Our portfolio is 35+ times our annual expense without our SS. This is why I set up the following goals: make 6% average annually with the lowest SD I can get (preferably under 3) and never lose 3% from any last top. We don’t care about maximizing performance anymore but to meet our specific goals. To do that I use mainly bond mutual funds + several short term trades (hours-days) using stocks/ETF/CEFs/other. The 3 year results are much better than my goals. I never lost more than 1% from any last top in the last 3 years. Below is a copy from my Schwab accounts as of yesterday which is about 95% of our total money. There is no way to achieve these results without being a good trader and why I posted other funds too
    3 year performance/SD...SPY 13.1%/17.7...VBINX (60/40) 10%/11.1....VWIAX (40/60) 7.046.6%/...PIMIX 3.75%/5.6....IOFIX 0.2%/23.7
    My portfolio performance was 9.9% annually for 3 year with SD=2.18
    Below you can see an image of performance as of 10/14/2020 from Schwab. Column 1=one year...Column 2=YTD...Column 3=one year...Column 4=3 years
    image
    Below is the SD for one year and 3 years
    image
  • An Update On The Non-Agency MBS Sector
    This report focuses mostly on CEFs but it does discuss some OEFs including IOFIX.
    We noted how AlphaCentric Income Opportunities saw a "run on the fund" where shareholders all liquidated en masse causing a downward spiral in prices.
    image
    (Writing about CEFs)....most NAVs are still well below where they were in February even when including the distribution paid since. As we've noted, these securities take the elevator down and stairs back up. We still expect prices to return to around an average price of 90 cents on the dollar but that it would take at least 6 months and more like 18-24 months to do so.
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4377703-update-on-non-agency-mbs-sector
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    Numbers as of 9/30/2020.
    image
    Observations for one month as of 9/30/2020:
    Multi- Flat for the month but securitized shined with 1-2.9%/
    HY Munis – Flat for the month but Nuveen (NHMAX,NVHAX) did better.
    Inter term – (-0.1%) for the month. TGLMX (mostly securitized) did 0.4%.
    Bank loans – up 0.3-4% for the month.
    Uncontrain/Nontrad -0.2 for the month. Securitized(JASVX,DFLEX)
    HY+EM – HY -0.9 and EM=-1.7% for the month with correlation to stocks.
    Corp – down month. PIGIX -0.4%.
    SP500(VFIAX)-Down monthth at -3.8, YTD=5.55%.
    PCI-CEF huge upside at 7.1%. YTD still at -13.7%
    My own portfolio
    I started the month with IOFIX+DFLEX and replaced DFLEX with JASVX+NHMAX. It’s pretty obvious that funds loaded with securitized bonds are doing well. HY Munis don’t have a momentum yet but I bought NHMAX because it’s in my taxable and it showed a better momentum than others but the last 2 days are down, I was too early but now I’m watching closely. It was another good month for me.
    FD, what is the source for the chart you posted? Many thanks.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    Numbers as of 9/30/2020.
    image
    Observations for one month as of 9/30/2020:
    Multi- Flat for the month but securitized shined with 1-2.9%/
    HY Munis – Flat for the month but Nuveen (NHMAX,NVHAX) did better.
    Inter term – (-0.1%) for the month. TGLMX (mostly securitized) did 0.4%.
    Bank loans – up 0.3-4% for the month.
    Uncontrain/Nontrad -0.2 for the month. Securitized(JASVX,DFLEX)
    HY+EM – HY -0.9 and EM=-1.7% for the month with correlation to stocks.
    Corp – down month. PIGIX -0.4%.
    SP500(VFIAX)-Down monthth at -3.8, YTD=5.55%.
    PCI-CEF huge upside at 7.1%. YTD still at -13.7%
    My own portfolio
    I started the month with IOFIX+DFLEX and replaced DFLEX with JASVX+NHMAX. It’s pretty obvious that funds loaded with securitized bonds are doing well. HY Munis don’t have a momentum yet but I bought NHMAX because it’s in my taxable and it showed a better momentum than others but the last 2 days are down, I was too early but now I’m watching closely. It was another good month for me.
  • What are your 5 or 6 largest holdings? *Or where are the bulk of your holdings?*
    @FD1000; I'm guessing you bought in around 3/25/20 ?
    Derf

    Nope, I sold over 90% at the end of 02/2020 and the rest days later.
    Made several good trades with QQQ+PCI in 03/2020.
    Start investing back in bond funds to over 99+% in 04/2020.
    I had a huge % in GWMEX for several months. I owned IOFIX only in the last several weeks.
    I wish I was brave enough to buy IOFIX on 3/25/2020. It made over 50% since then.

    How do you square owning IOFIX with your later comment in this string to avoid risky funds?
    I'm a trader and don't recommend what I do to others. My posts are generic unless someone asks me specifically about my portfolio.
    This thread isn't about avoiding risky funds. Please read the original posts "What are your 5 or 6 largest holdings? *Or where are the bulk of your holdings?"
    BTW, I don't believe in just lower risk funds, I believe in great risk/reward funds. You should look for funds that have good performance but also good risk attributes(SD, Max Draw, Sharpe, Sortino).
    For allocation my go 2 funds are:
    Moderate=PRWCX. In the last several years VLAIX is good too.
    Conservative=VWINX,VWIAX
  • What are your 5 or 6 largest holdings? *Or where are the bulk of your holdings?*
    @FD1000; I'm guessing you bought in around 3/25/20 ?
    Derf

    Nope, I sold over 90% at the end of 02/2020 and the rest days later.
    Made several good trades with QQQ+PCI in 03/2020.
    Start investing back in bond funds to over 99+% in 04/2020.
    I had a huge % in GWMEX for several months. I owned IOFIX only in the last several weeks.
    I wish I was brave enough to buy IOFIX on 3/25/2020. It made over 50% since then.
    How do you square owning IOFIX with your later comment in this string to avoid risky funds?
  • What are your 5 or 6 largest holdings? *Or where are the bulk of your holdings?*
    Hat tip to you FD1000, appears you have a high level of confidence and success in your investing endeavors. Like they say, it ain't boasting if you can do it.
    Maybe I'm, take that back, I am quite a Chicken Little when it comes to investing in Muni's, (ref NHMAX)...that fund seems like top ~30% of holdings are in IL, CA, NY and PR. I wouldn't touch any muni bond from those states with your ten foot pole.
    Or maybe the put is in...just invest and wait for the fed / Pelosi and friends to bail out those states? Maybe it's foolish not to invest there?
    Re IOFIX...many got burned big time several months ago...news all over that housing is doing well....maybe we're just about to see a bigger downturn than 08/09, in my area we're starting to see sellers discounting homes...of course that might be the "wealthy" getting the heck out of IL.
    I recall that Mr Junkster mentioning and you FD as well that you follow tight channels and price performance, so maybe you don't overthink it as I seem to do or maybe you know a lot more the underlying holdings/dyanmics than I do. Again, much respect to your results, being serious, not being sarcastic.
    Maybe just better going to LV and putting it all on red and at least enjoy the free drinks?
    Good Luck and Good Health to all,
    Baseball_Fan
  • What are your 5 or 6 largest holdings? *Or where are the bulk of your holdings?*
    @FD1000; I'm guessing you bought in around 3/25/20 ?
    Derf
    Nope, I sold over 90% at the end of 02/2020 and the rest days later.
    Made several good trades with QQQ+PCI in 03/2020.
    Start investing back in bond funds to over 99+% in 04/2020.
    I had a huge % in GWMEX for several months. I owned IOFIX only in the last several weeks.
    I wish I was brave enough to buy IOFIX on 3/25/2020. It made over 50% since then.
  • What are your 5 or 6 largest holdings? *Or where are the bulk of your holdings?*
    MaxFunds is too generic instead of looking at risk/reward as the best measure of funds. MFO is a fantastic source too.
    Easy example: VWENX(98 by MF) vs PRWCX(83 by MF) in the last 10 years (link)
    VWENX has a bit lower SD but PRWCX is beter for the following: performance was at 2+% annually, Worse+Best year, Sharpe+Sortino.
    ===============
    What are my 5 or 6 largest holdings?
    As a trader I use only 2-3 funds and now I have a big % in IOFIX and smaller % in JASVX+NHMAX. I could change it any week or stay with it for weeks.
  • IOFIX/IOAFX Distributions
    IOFIX short term fee of 1% within 180 days was canceled.
  • IOFIX/IOAFX Distributions
    Here are a couple of earlier Section 19a docs for the fund: March and April. There may be others.
    As @Vegomatic posted in another thread, sometimes these interim classifications of distributions change before getting to the official 1099-DIV.
    That said, I noticed that 97% of IOFIX's securities are floating rate. Years ago, I owned a fund that invested in agency ARMs. Almost a quarter of the distributions I received that year was ROC. There may be something inherent in these securities that creates ROC. Just an observation, I'm not digging into it.
    The ROC shows up on your 1099-DIV in Box 3 (nondividend distributions). This is pretty basic, and not uncommon for closed end fund with managed distributions. So all tax software should handle it.
    There is a quirk with ROC. As noted, this reduces your cost basis. If your cost basis drops to zero, any additional ROC is treated as capital gains.
    https://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc404
    If your shares are "covered" Schwab is required to keep track of your cost basis. I believe that it is required to incorporate the effect of return of capital when reporting your cost basis (i.e. it should track this correctly). However, the ultimate responsibility for keeping track is yours, regardless of what Schwab reports.
  • IOFIX/IOAFX Distributions
    Thanks for the post. That document was in my inbox but I hadn't looked at it yet. Yes, it sounds like it will be necessary to reduce cost basis upon sale. The answers to your two questions will probably present themselves as you complete your tax return if you don't get them answered before then.
    My current plan is to continue to hold IOFIX until a few months after a vaccine has become widely distributed. Hopefully, its elevator down and stairway up journey will be substantially complete by then. IOFIX popped up 2.06% yesterday....
  • IOFIX/IOAFX Distributions
    I received a “section 19a” document from Alpha Centric via Schwab informing shareholders about the percentage of monthly distributions that is income and that which is return of capital. It seems to me this is the first such notice I have received, but I could have missed something previously. In the event, to date, ROC amounts to 56% of the gross distributions with the remainder as true income. I believe the cost basis of one’s holding in the fund must be reduced by the amount of the ROC. I have no idea if what Schwab reports to the IRS accounts for this, nor do I know if TurboTax can account for this. Apparently, upon sale of the MF, if the ROC is not factored in, the shareholder could be in violation of IRS rules. I did not sell when IOAFX cratered, but I did hear on the board of others bailing out. I hope this is post is not too wonky.
  • IOFIX Imposes 1% Redemption Fee
    There an easy way to not pay early redemption. I have done it several times over the years but usually I don't buy a fund that has penalty fee over 30 days. If you don't know how to avoid the penalty then you will continue not to know it :-)
    I sold IOFIX at the end of 02/2020 and I'm not going to buy until I feel better about it. Most of my money is in HY Munis.
    I did hold a small position in EIXIX instead for several weeks. This fund hold higher rated securitized bonds than IOFIX based on the fact it didn't fall so much in March.