stillers: And I never understood your "All bonds all the time/bond OEF momentum" investment strategy when markets have gone up FOR 10 YEARS.
It should be noted that you posted on M* that you sold all of your stocks near/at EOY 2019, you have not reported any stock buys since then, staying 100% in bond OEFs. So despite you reporting that data, you have not participated in any of the 2020 YTD stock market gains.

The above was your usual inaccurate agenda. I owned stocks constantly several years in the last 10 years. In the last 2 years and especially since retirement, I'm invested mostly in bond OEFs and I trade stocks/ETF/CEF several times annually. That fits perfectly with my goals which I exceeded easily
I don't post most of my trades and holdings anymore.
In the past, you said several times that
1) I will never retire but I did
2) I will never have enough but I already have more than 30 times our annual expense without drawing social security.
and now you said, "So despite you reporting that data, you have not participated in any of the 2020 YTD stock market gains." I didn't claim that I used "sell trailing stop" it was just a generic post. There is no way for you to know if I owned stocks and how long.

I can't find where you posted your holdings, their % and trades in the last 1-2 years. Your quote said "markets have gone up FOR 10 YEARS" while you were holding a huge % in CD and bond OEFs for years

@Gary1952 Of course there is a correction coming......................someday. There always is.

No correction is needed unless you can find something wrong I said.
My comment about sell trailing stop was a generic one that I used to do years ago. I do trade riskier funds short-term, usually days to 2 weeks.
I suggest that you guys stay on topic and not rehash Morningstar posts, after all, this is MFO.

FD, please take a breath, relax and re-read my post. I did not comment on your investing. The correction I posted about was a MARKET correction, about the OP. I had the misfortune to post after a derogative post. My post had no quote attached. No apology needed.

stillers: And I never understood your "All bonds all the time/bond OEF momentum" investment strategy when markets have gone up FOR 10 YEARS.
It should be noted that you posted on M* that you sold all of your stocks near/at EOY 2019, you have not reported any stock buys since then, staying 100% in bond OEFs. So despite you reporting that data, you have not participated in any of the 2020 YTD stock market gains.

The above was your usual inaccurate agenda. I owned stocks constantly several years in the last 10 years. In the last 2 years and especially since retirement, I'm invested mostly in bond OEFs and I trade stocks/ETF/CEF several times annually. That fits perfectly with my goals which I exceeded easily
I don't post most of my trades and holdings anymore.
In the past, you said several times that
1) I will never retire but I did
2) I will never have enough but I already have more than 30 times our annual expense without drawing social security.
and now you said, "So despite you reporting that data, you have not participated in any of the 2020 YTD stock market gains." I didn't claim that I used "sell trailing stop" it was just a generic post. There is no way for you to know if I owned stocks and how long.
I can't find where you posted your holdings, their % and trades in the last 1-2 years. Your quote said "markets have gone up FOR 10 YEARS" while you were holding a huge % in CD and bond OEFs for years

@Gary1952 Of course there is a correction coming......................someday. There always is.

No correction is needed unless you can find something wrong I said.
My comment about sell trailing stop was a generic one that I used to do years ago. I do trade riskier funds short-term, usually days to 2 weeks.
I suggest that you guys stay on topic and not rehash Morningstar posts, after all, this is MFO.

“The average 401(k) balance rose 17% last year to $112,300 from the end of 2018, according to a review of 17.3 million accounts by Fidelity Investments. The average individual retirement account, or IRA, balance rose the same percentage to $115,400”.
- Socking away more ? The balance increases reported don’t reflect that, since the S&P rose 31+% in 2019 (according to the article).
- Are these numbers for only Fidelity’s clients? Or are they referencing data for the total of all U.S. retirement savers? If only Fidelity, numbers may not be representative.
- Do the reported balances represent all retirement plans - or just those where the holder hasn’t yet retired? (Let’s hope it’s the former.)
- I contended a while back (some other thread) that worker contributions tend to increase when markets are richly valued. Fidelity’s observations might support that.

@Old_Skeet I turn 70 this month and am about 15 years into retirement having taken advantage of a downsizing "early out" opportunity in 2005. My stock weighting has varied between about 40% and 60% during that time.
My portfolio percentages will probably be in the neighborhood of 55% stocks, 40% bonds and 5% Other after the new cash arrives. Most of that new cash will likely be used to increase existing positions in VWINX, WFLEX, IOFIX, ZEOIX, and SEMPX. (I'm thinking about adding to RPHYX too given its recently improving performance.) My tendency to overweight stocks (vs my current 50/50 default mix) may well persist until 10 year treasury rates move meaningfully higher...maybe into the 3 to 4% range will get my attention (of course something else may come to convince me to abandon my current overweight to stocks!). My present plan is to keep the default mix at 50/50 at least until I turn 80 unless my health status declines significantly.
I have incorporated a sub-portfolio within my ongoing mutual fund portfolio over the past year and a half. Its settled out at 22.5% of the total portfolio (counting the new cash). Its 1/2 income oriented and 1/2 "income with growth" oriented and is populated with individual dividend paying stocks (3%+ dividends), REITS, CEFs, BDCs, and LPs. The individual holding sizes are bit sized enough that it could be used to engage in some "spiffing" although my current plan is to invest for income and long term capital gains.....Anyway, your comments and perspectives are appreciated.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/401-k-hit-records-workers-112754438.html
NEW YORK (AP) — How's your 401(k) doing?
President Donald Trump likes to ask that question around the country, sometimes throwing out big gains like 90% or 95%. The average 401(k) did indeed hit a record last year, although its growth was considerably less than that.
The average 401(k) balance rose 17% last year to $112,300 from the end of 2018, according to a review of 17.3 million accounts by Fidelity Investments. The average individual retirement account, or IRA, balance rose the same percentage to $115,400

@mcmarasco ISTM you're overthinking this.
The 30,000 foot view: What your are considering (investing the $150K) is a form of leveraged investment. It's as if you started with nothing in your pocket and your home paid off, and then you borrowed at 4% (the mortgage) to invest the borrowed $150K at 7%.
That's a net gain of 3% (less after taxes), but as with most leveraging, increased risk. (This also addresses @davidrmoran's question: what happens if you reduce the assumed rate of return.)
A little more detail: You want to compare two outcomes. The inputs are the same either way are: $150K cash and a 10 year cash flow of $1500/mo. Either way, at the end of 10 years, you'll have your home free and clear. So the only difference between the two paths you suggested is the value of your investment at the end of 10 years.
Path 1: Invest the $150K @7% rate of return. As you noted, you'll have $300K at the end. (You'll also have paid $180K over the ten years to reduce your mortgage debt by $150K, so you'll have paid in $30K in interest.)
Path 2: Invest $1500/mo @7% rate of return. At the end of 10 years, with incremental investments, you'll have about $258K. A lesser result.
Taxes are where one gets into the weeds:
Path 1: The net income of $150K will presumably be taxed at cap gains rate. But you'll also be able to deduct the $30K in interest against ordinary income. We'll assume a 22% rate here.
Your net taxes will be around 15% x $150K - 22% x $30K = $22.5K - $6.6K, or about $16K.
Your total after tax value will be around $300K - $16K = $284K.
Path 2: Your net income is $258K - $180K (the cash flow it cost you) = $78K. Again assuming this is all cap gains, the tax is 15% x $78K or about $12K.
Your total after tax value will be around $258K - $12K = $246k.
[The $258K result came from using a calculator and investing $1500/mo at 7% annual compounding for ten years.]

@mcmarasco - acknowledging that the financial (cash flow?) situation will be different for everyone I chose to pay additional principal when I could to cut down the term. Why? You could call my chosen profession (carpenter) seasonal at best with a ride of great years and the not so great resembling a roller coaster. A steady savings account was not possible because of those down years using up the overflow from the good years. Over the 30-yr, $140K, initial 8.25% mortgage I was able to buy two better (read: reliable) vehicles while each time refinancing my original mortgage to include funds to pay off the vehicles which were at much higher loan rates. By year 10 I was looking at two newer vehicles and a now 15-yr, $115K mortgage at 4.35% which I disposed of in 10 years.
I hate owing anybody anything so the whole point of my exercise was to be fully aware of my fluctuating income while not falling behind on my debts. By including my trucks into my mortgage payment I saved on the interest for those loans while also taking the worry of 2 monthly payments off my mind. When there was excess cash it went toward the principal. If your income is more reliable and consistent I guess you have more leeway to play. I absolutely wanted no mortgage debt in retirement.

do it with 4%-5% returns instead and see what you think
for me, retired and a couple months shy of 73, it is all sleep-at-night and cashflow, countering those who advocate no mortgage debt in retirement
(ours is not large, however, just under $100k, not like $300k, and yes, at <4% rate)
but if I could refi now for 40y mortgage, I would
ymmv

@mcmarasco - Excellent summation of trade-offs. I wrestle a bit with this, though my numbers are substantially smaller than yours (duration, payments, rate, balance). Perhaps lacking in your depiction is the type of vehicle (non-retirement, IRA, Roth, etc.) the assets that would be used are currently invested in, as tax considerations enter the picture.
Putting all that aside (largely irrelevant to me), the one question I’d ask (rhetorically) is: *How much confidence do you have that your investments won’t sustain a substantial loss (greater than 20%) over the next decade?
Locking up your money in that contemplated mortgage payoff strikes me as similar to purchasing an AAA rated bond earning 4% (compounded monthly) over the remaining years on the mortgage. (A partial pay down would reduce the duration by X number of years.) And 4% compounded is a very nice rate on AAA debt by today’s standards. So as a defensive strategy to protect / hedge against a severe portfolio loss it makes sense.
When I look at my own investments, the portfolio has grown so conservative (and diversified) in recent years (age 73) that I can’t conceive of a hit greater than 20-25% over the next decade. When I look at the modest 5 year performance of some of my “riskiest” funds like DODBX and RPGAX I’m not seeing “bubble.” So, while I do view many equity markets (NASDAQ, S&P) as in bubble territory, I’m not so worried about my own investments that I’d want to trade a substantial % of them for a fixed rate bond - even though by today’s standards the “yield” would surpass what one can purchase in the fixed income marketplace.
Hope others will share their thinking.

I am trying to decide whether to pay off a fairly new 30-year (4% fixed) mortgage or ride it out the term or pay additional principle and reduce the payoff time. I am not using complicated math, just rudimentary figures and math.
I guess conventional wisdom is that if you can make more than the the interest rate investing, then invest. I want to come at this in a slightly different angle.
30-year (4% fixed) mortgage
$150,000 balance
$1,500 (P&I and a little extra for about a 10-year payoff)
If I continue on my current path, I will incur $50,000 in additional INTEREST.
If I invest the $150,000, using the rule of 72 and historical 7% return, then at the end of 10 years I would have doubled my investment to $300,000 gross, NET $150,000 profit.
Less the $50,000 of Mortgage INTEREST, I am left with $100,000 net gain after 10 years.
If I pay off my $150,000 mortgage balance, I then free up $1,500/mo and $18,000/yr. Over 10 years, that's $180,000 I can DCA invest (assuming no gains or losses).
Using this "fuzzy" math, ($180,000 - $100,000) I would net $80,000 MORE after 10 years, if I payoff the balance of my mortgage today.
FYI: At least ten years away from considering retirement
Any thoughts, suggestions, mild criticisms, etc are very welcome!
Thanks, Matt

https://www.denverpost.com/2020/02/02/road-to-retirement-charlie-farrell-fleeing-one-investment-bubble-for-another/
Road to Retirement: Fleeing one investment bubble for another?
The Denver Post
With technology companies driving the stock market up seemingly week after week, it’s making some investors nervous and bringing up bad memories of the technology crash of 2000. So, is this just a repeat of what we saw before and is the stock market really in a bubble? Let’s take a look at some numbers.

https://federalnewsnetwork.com/mike-causey-federal-report/2020/01/even-in-hot-stock-market-tsp-investors-love-super-cool-g-fund/
Even in hot stock market TSP investors love super-cool G fund
Despite 20-30-plus-percent returns for the TSP’s C, S and I stock index funds last year, a slight majority of federal workers investing for retirement have most of their optional retirement nest egg money in the super-safe, Treasury securities G fund.
The C fund, which tracks the S&P 500 index, returned 31.45% in 2019. The small cap S fund return was 27.97% and the international stock index I fund was up 27.97%. The F fund (bonds) return was 8.68% while the popular G fund returned 2.24% in calendar 2019.
As of Dec. 31, 2019, the TSP total value was $632.6 billion.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/know-these-3-facts-to-avoid-paying-half-your-retirement-income-to-the-irs-january-30-2020
Know These 3 Facts to Avoid Paying Half Your Retirement Income to the IRS - January 30, 2020
If you do not make a required minimum distribution (RMD) from your own or an inherited IRA by the specified deadline, the IRS could hit you with a big penalty - 50%! For example, if you were required to withdraw a minimum of $4,000 and you did not, you would be obliged to pay $2,000. Plus, beginning January 1, 2020, the rules concerning RMDs were updated.

(From John’s link) “In a recent survey, Schroders Investment Management questioned 1,004 men and women aged 45 to over 70 about retirement planning. ... Some 55% of respondents admitted they didn't know how their assets were allocated.”
This might explain that: Vanguard: More than half of DC participants investing solely in target-date funds Story
Makes sense to me that if someone who is not financially inclined defaults to their 401-K (or other employee plan’s) target date fund they would not be able to explain the “ins & outs“ of how that fund invests. Seems to me those funds are designed for precisely that kind of individual.
It would be nice if they all became fund junkies like most of us here - but that is not the reality. I don’t think any amount of citizenry education is likely to alter that. However, as one moves from contribution years to distribution years it’s likely their interest in financial matters grows. Experience on this forum testifies to that subtle transition,

More Than Half of Retirement Savers Don't Know This
/You might be missing the very information you need to succeed in retirement.
Catherine Brock
Running a marathon without training is a bad idea. Same goes for betting your last $100 on lucky 17 at the roulette table, or trying to save for a comfortable retirement when you know little about investing. The odds of coming out ahead all around are pretty low./
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/01/29/more-than-half-of-retirement-savers-dont-know-this.aspx
•••I do believe most or more than 95% of regular MFOers know about diversification distributions and reimbursements issues regarding investments firms /investments related issues

Thanks for the link.
The one commenter on the article at the link notes the difference between the purpose of his retirement account and the purpose of his taxable accounts. That's something useful to think about.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277751/000119312520018227/d870665d497.htm
497 1 d870665d497.htm JANUS HENDERSON SMALL CAP VALUE FUND
Janus Investment Fund
Janus Henderson Small Cap Value Fund
Supplement dated January 29, 2020
to Currently Effective Prospectuses
Effective at the close of business on February 28, 2020 the following is added to the Shareholder’s Guide (or Shareholder’s Manual if you hold Class D Shares) of the Prospectuses following the “Redemptions” section.
CLOSED FUND POLICIES – JANUS HENDERSON SMALL CAP VALUE FUND
The Fund has limited sales of its shares because Janus Capital and the Trustees believe continued sales are not in the best interests of the Fund. Sales to new investors have generally been discontinued; however, investors who meet certain criteria described below may be able to purchase shares of the Fund. You may be required to demonstrate eligibility to purchase shares of the Fund before your investment is accepted. If you are a current Fund shareholder and close an existing Fund account, you may not be able to make additional investments in the Fund unless you meet one of the specified criteria. The Fund may resume sales of its shares at some future date, but it has no present intention to do so. Investors who meet the following criteria may be able to invest in the Fund: (i) existing shareholders invested in the Fund are permitted to continue to purchase shares through their existing Fund accounts (and, for shareholders of Class D Shares, by opening new Fund accounts) and to reinvest any dividends or capital gains distributions in such accounts, absent highly unusual circumstances; (ii) registered investment advisers (“RIAs”) may continue to invest in the Fund through an existing omnibus account at a financial institution and/or intermediary on behalf of existing or new clients; (iii) under certain circumstances, all or a portion of the shares held in a closed Fund account may be reallocated to a different form of ownership; this may include, but is not limited to, mandatory retirement distributions, legal proceedings, estate settlements, and the gifting of Fund shares; (iv) employer-sponsored retirement plans that are offered through existing retirement platforms which held a position in the Fund as of the date of the Fund’s closure, as well as employees of JHG and any of its subsidiaries covered under the JHG retirement plan; (v) Janus Capital encourages its employees to own shares of the Janus Henderson funds, and as such, employees of Janus Capital and its affiliates may open new accounts in the closed Fund; Trustees of the Janus Henderson funds and directors of JHG may also open new accounts in the closed Fund; (vi) Janus Capital “fund of funds,” which is a fund that primarily invests in other Janus Henderson mutual funds, may invest in the Fund; (vii) accounts maintained by a financial intermediary that invest pursuant to Janus Henderson proprietary model strategies; (viii); certain institutional investors approved by Janus Henderson Distributors, including but not limited to, corporations, certain retirement plans, public plans, and foundations and endowments; (ix) certain accounts maintained by a self-clearing financial intermediary for which investment decisions are determined by such financial intermediary’s home office recommended list and/or pursuant to such home office’s model portfolios (approved and/or research-covered fund lists are not included within this exception); and (x) in the case of certain mergers or reorganizations, retirement plans may be able to add the closed Fund as an investment option. Such mergers, reorganizations, acquisitions, or other business combinations are those in which one or more companies involved in such transaction currently offers the Fund as an investment option, and any company that as a result of such transaction becomes affiliated with the company currently offering the Fund (as a parent company, subsidiary, sister company, or otherwise). Such companies may request to add the Fund as an investment option under its retirement plan. Requests for new accounts into a closed Fund will be reviewed by management and may be permitted on an individual basis, taking into consideration whether the addition to the Fund is believed to negatively impact existing Fund shareholders.
Please retain this Supplement with your records.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Janus Investment Fund
Janus Henderson Small Cap Value Fund
Supplement dated January 29, 2020
to Currently Effective Statement of Additional Information
Effective at the close of business on February 28, 2020 the following is added to the Shares of the Trust section under “Closed Fund Policies” of the Fund’s SAI:
CLOSED FUND POLICIES – JANUS HENDERSON SMALL CAP VALUE FUND
The Fund has limited sales of its shares because Janus Capital and the Trustees believe continued sales are not in the best interests of the Fund. Sales to new investors have generally been discontinued; however, investors who meet certain criteria described below may be able to purchase shares of the Fund. You may be required to demonstrate eligibility to purchase shares of the Fund before your investment is accepted. If you are a current Fund shareholder and close an existing Fund account, you may not be able to make additional investments in the Fund unless you meet one of the specified criteria. The Fund may resume sales of its shares at some future date, but it has no present intention to do so.
Investors who meet the following criteria may be able to invest in the Fund: (i) existing shareholders invested in the Fund are permitted to continue to purchase shares through their existing Fund accounts (and, for shareholders of Class D Shares, by opening new Fund accounts) and to reinvest any dividends or capital gains distributions in such accounts, absent highly unusual circumstances; (ii) registered investment advisers (“RIAs”) may continue to invest in the Fund through an existing omnibus account at a financial institution and/or intermediary on behalf of existing or new clients; (iii) under certain circumstances, all or a portion of the shares held in a closed Fund account may be reallocated to a different form of ownership; this may include, but is not limited to, mandatory retirement distributions, legal proceedings, estate settlements, and the gifting of Fund shares; (iv) employer-sponsored retirement plans that are offered through existing retirement platforms which held a position in the Fund as of the date of the Fund’s closure, as well as employees of JHG and any of its subsidiaries covered under the JHG retirement plan; (v) Janus Capital encourages its employees to own shares of the Janus Henderson funds, and as such, employees of Janus Capital and its affiliates may open new accounts in the closed Fund; Trustees of the Janus Henderson funds and directors of JHG may also open new accounts in the closed Fund; (vi) Janus Capital “fund of funds,” which is a fund that primarily invests in other Janus Henderson mutual funds, may invest in the Fund; (vii) accounts maintained by a financial intermediary that invest pursuant to Janus Henderson proprietary model strategies; (viii); certain institutional investors approved by Janus Henderson Distributors, including but not limited to, corporations, certain retirement plans, public plans, and foundations and endowments; (ix) certain accounts maintained by a self-clearing financial intermediary for which investment decisions are determined by such financial intermediary’s home office recommended list and/or pursuant to such home office’s model portfolios (approved and/or research-covered fund lists are not included within this exception); and (x) in the case of certain mergers or reorganizations, retirement plans may be able to add the closed Fund as an investment option. Such mergers, reorganizations, acquisitions, or other business combinations are those in which one or more companies involved in such transaction currently offers the Fund as an investment option, and any company that as a result of such transaction becomes affiliated with the company currently offering the Fund (as a parent company, subsidiary, sister company, or otherwise). Such companies may request to add the Fund as an investment option under its retirement plan. Requests for new accounts into a closed Fund will be reviewed by management and may be permitted on an individual basis, taking into consideration whether the addition to the Fund is believed to negatively impact existing Fund shareholders.

How is TIAA for a broker? I only have my work 403(b) with them (holding 1 American Fund - RWMGX) but have thought about moving some of my retirement investment acounts from TD there to consolidate things and let TIAA be my 'retirement account broker' so to speak. My other taxable longterm accounts at TDA/Schwab and WF are probably going to stay put, though.

honestly, their web interface lives a lot to be desired. I hold my nose and take what I can from it. They do have access to some funds NTF no one else does. They don't make it easy to find necessarily. However, with a single malt in hand on the weekends, I manage.
If you are looking to consolidate, IMO Schwab will be better option.

By Alpha Gen Capital at SeekingAlpha.com
Summary
° Retirees have an over-reliance and spend far too much time on rates of return. Instead, investors should focus on cash flows, both in and out of your household.
° This is a construct of Wall Street who wants you to be placing all your investable assets into the market, while placing all the risk on your retirement on you.
° We think the next few years will show a significant shift in the way investors/retirees manage their financial retirement.
° It is our belief that a focus on cash flows, not rates of return, will be the future, including the use of income annuities.
Article Here